Sun, Jan 25 Plays

sprasad03 · 01-25-09, 01:40 PM

you think we can take boston with points for 3rd q

curious · 01-25-09, 01:43 PM

Originally posted by sprasad03

you think we can take boston with points for 3rd q

I never play Quarters favs minus the points. The probabilities just don't work out.

sprasad03 · 01-25-09, 01:48 PM

so what exactly is ur system for picking winners, you seem to do pretty good!

curious · 01-25-09, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by sprasad03

so what exactly is ur system for picking winners, you seem to do pretty good!

for games i use who's hot / who's cold and find matchups of hot vs cold

for quarters I use the win-loss statistics by Quarter and find high winning % teams vs low winning % teams.

For the 3rd quarter I usually use the loser of the 1st half, sometimes I use the win-loss statistics comparison to predict the 3Q team.

And yes, I do quite well.

sprasad03 · 01-25-09, 01:54 PM

so Bos 1st half was suppose to be ML, i took it -5, whoops but o well they are killing mavs. I am just watcing the game and dallas is gettin beat in almost every way which was y i think boston beats dallas with the points 3rd q

sprasad03 · 01-25-09, 01:57 PM

ya i been following you, im gonna start using all your picks as another side. i got my system for predicting winners, its goin quite well. its 14-4 after i adjusted 3 times throughout the season. but its only for games.

So when u say martingale the picks what do you mean exactly?

curious · 01-25-09, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by sprasad03

so Bos 1st half was suppose to be ML, i took it -5, whoops but o well they are killing mavs. I am just watcing the game and dallas is gettin beat in almost every way which was y i think boston beats dallas with the points 3rd q

I almost NEVER take favs minus the points, and every single time I do they don't cover.

I'm only taking GS minus the points because the Clippers have so many injuries and GS plays their spray and pray offense.

I don't know if you have read any of my other threads but I always say "take favs on the ML, dogs + points".

Anyway, congrats on your two wins for Boston so far. 1Q and 1H.

alittlemoresound · 01-25-09, 02:07 PM

i took boston 1st q won

i took boston 2nd q won

now what to do for 3rd Q ????

curious · 01-25-09, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by alittlemoresound

i took boston 1st q won

i took boston 2nd q won

now what to do for 3rd Q ????

Boston

alittlemoresound · 01-25-09, 02:11 PM

is it safe enought to drop $200 on ?

curious · 01-25-09, 02:15 PM

Originally posted by alittlemoresound

is it safe enought to drop $200 on ?

Nothing in gambling is "safe". There are two probabilities at play here. Boston wins a high % of 3rd quarters while Dallas does not. HOWEVER, the loser of the 1st Half usually wins the 3Q.

Also you have to take into consideration that Dallas is getting massacred.

If you have to ask whether your $200 is "safe' then I would say you cannot afford to lose it and you should not bet it. IMHO

mb19 · 01-25-09, 02:19 PM

I got Dallas -1 in 4q. I see Allen and company adding on in 3rd and then sitting.

alittlemoresound · 01-25-09, 02:29 PM

nic post curious... its cuz i don't want to bust my bank roll... i already won 1st 1/2 1st Q and 2nd Q boston.

im saving my bank for the lakers....

i think lakers 1st Q might be a good play @ -2

kobes having meetings and the revenge factor is there

curious · 01-25-09, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by alittlemoresound

nic post curious... its cuz i don't want to bust my bank roll... i already won 1st 1/2 1st Q and 2nd Q boston.

im saving my bank for the lakers....

i think lakers 1st Q might be a good play @ -2

kobes having meetings and the revenge factor is there

1 Quarter win %
San Antonio 57%
L.A. Lakers 66%

BelieveTheHype · 01-25-09, 02:45 PM

Lakers are a good 1H play, but too close for me to play 1Q

sprasad03 · 01-25-09, 06:01 PM

curious how solid is the minnesota play?

curious · 01-25-09, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by sprasad03

curious how solid is the minnesota play?

CHICAGO: 1-8 ATS revenging same season loss
MINNESOTA: 8-1 ATS in January

Minnesota won eight of its last ten games.
Bulls lost last four games, by 5-4-3-20 points.

smokin1 · 01-25-09, 06:19 PM

Good luck tonight bud

Thanks for sharing your plays with us!

curious · 01-26-09, 01:45 AM

17-13

Ouch. I guess I should have made GS 3Q a definite play. The 4Q plays don't seem to do very well. I may drop them, or try to find an indicator that says they are a good play. Well the sides are 3 unit plays and the quarters are 1 unit plays and the sides went 7-3, so that was good anyway.

50lipa · 01-26-09, 07:10 AM

4Q bets often contradict with common sence, hence why i don't play them anymore BEFORE the games, not that i don't understand that a 60%+ team in 4Q should beat a 30% team.

Teams up double digits simply pull out starters and mix match in some rookies in the end aswell, nothing weird or unexpected with that, Golden State was up by 20, Rockets were up 12 i think going into 4th on an away game, ofcourse you don't bet those teams, tho Atlanta was down 3 and being a strong 4Q team playing at home i hit them, but they failed.

Some things are simply not expected, and should not be bet on.

smokin1 · 01-26-09, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by curious

Ouch. I guess I should have made GS 3Q a definite play. The 4Q plays don't seem to do very well. I may drop them, or try to find an indicator that says they are a good play. Well the sides are 3 unit plays and the quarters are 1 unit plays and the sides went 7-3, so that was good anyway.

Ive always had trouble with quarters and halfs in game. Like 50lipa said, 4th quarter is either when they clear the bench or foul for the last 60 secs to catch up a close game that points can be touch to predict imo. I like the earlier 1/2,1/4 selections tho and am very impressed with your results. I unfortunately cant play them as my main book (5dimes) doesnt have money lines on 2nd/3rd/4th quarters so unless I only play the dogs Im out of luck till I decide on my backup book(s)

And Im not sure your actual record (7-3 game, 10-10 1/4s) is relevant at all. The only thing that matters with your system is units/roi. Like I said Im not able to bet 1/4s,1/2s so I only got 3 or 4 of those in but did play all your full game picks except for boston.

Including the boston game you went +10.32 units for the day just on full game picks. You risked 48.91 units to win 59.23 giving you an ROI of 21.1%. IMO these I the only numbers that matter and if reflective of your expected results, not to shabby at all

Anywaysm keep up the good work, I look forward to checking out your leans today.