The $3,000 Experiment

JohnMorr08 · 01-12-09, 05:59 PM

Plays for 1/12

NBA
Portland ML (-135) 135 to win 100
Utah Jazz -10.5 (-110) 110 to win 100

NHL
Detroit Redwings ML (-175) 175 to win 100

Current Balance: $3,000 Current Record: 0 - 0

strictlywinners · 01-12-09, 06:01 PM

Very interesting thread, I love the idea, and it is very possible to do so, really if you are willing to assume some risk, all you need to do is go 3-0

1st bet 3000 to win 2700
2nd bet 5700 to win 5150
3rd bet 10850 to win 9900

Just like that with only 3 correct bets you have cracked the 20k mark, it is that easy. Only bad thing is, one bad pick or one game that goes wrong and the experiment is over.

vassman86 · 01-12-09, 06:04 PM

Best of luck, John!

Wilforth · 01-12-09, 06:06 PM

I'm worried that your 3 picks are all favorites!

El Degeneroso · 01-12-09, 06:07 PM

Let's get it off to a good start, I had all 3 of those plays already lined up (Really love that Utah game). Can't wait to see how it goes.

JohnMorr08 · 01-12-09, 06:14 PM

Wil - I really do hate taking all favorites but that's just what seems right for tonight. We'll see how it goes. I'll definitely change things up!

Strict - I'd love to make 3 bets and turn it into 20k but just for the sake of this "experiment" i'm going to "try" and use strict money management. I'll use small %'s of the bankroll and only bet more when the balance goes up.

I plan on using the advice offered by all on SBR.

strictlywinners · 01-12-09, 06:19 PM

Very smart, yes rule of thumb is never bet more then 10% of your bankroll on any one game, and never make a 10% play more then once a week. I am very interested to see how this works out, I hope all goes well for you.

sprasad03 · 01-12-09, 06:23 PM

im iffy on the portland ml, chicago has returning players tonight deng, and i heard kirk hinrich.

DevilDog · 01-12-09, 06:26 PM

You really should be playing only about 1% of your bankroll on a game. You might end up playing more than that on certain wagers if you are chasing...but money management is the key here! It is alarming to read post' on this bb where guys are betting almost everything they have on ONE game. My God! They must want to go broke!

nick2060 · 01-12-09, 06:29 PM

I think money management is supposed to be 2-3 percent, but eitherway we dont wanna be here in a year from now. Making 30 dollar bets he'd havta get up over +100 units even if he raises the bet size accordingly to his increased bankroll

johnny baseballs · 01-12-09, 06:31 PM

hinrich playing thursday deng back tonite off the bench

mixpicks · 01-12-09, 06:33 PM

John, why not
Only Play The "B" and "C" Bets Only for 30% of the bankroll on the "B" and like 50% on The "C"
That what I do, not that high of a % I stick with 25% and then play "Reverse Line Moves" on any other game in the 3 main sports... BOL

DevilDog · 01-12-09, 06:34 PM

I have been doing this for a long long time. 1% is better than 2-3%, but I would not quibble with betting 2-3% of your bankroll on single wagers and NOT chase betting.

When using a chase betting system like John uses you would be much better off going with about 1% of your bankroll or less. I go with less than that. I go with one half of one percent.

DevilDog · 01-12-09, 06:36 PM

25% on one bet? Good luck with that! If that is working for you I would be stunned.

mixpicks · 01-12-09, 06:36 PM

...
Yes I make a consistent income, and any one will, my following that...

xxxvince · 01-12-09, 07:00 PM

i learned my lesson betting all in or big amount. i always follow what the ppl say here.. bet only 1% of ur bankroll. its so true, u can have fun and u wont think abt it if u lose for that day.

Smogs · 01-12-09, 09:08 PM

good luck with this

i speak for us all on here when i say we are with you all the way

JohnMorr08 · 01-12-09, 09:15 PM

Mix - A bets are close to 80% this year..... we've only have 12 or so B bets. Granted they are 100%. But the best way to play the system is to "play the system". Good Luck though... if it works out at 100% for the season you'll make tons.

Thanks for all the comments... I'm looking forward to all the Advice daily to see what plays we'll make.

darkenergy · 01-12-09, 09:19 PM

Thank you John for this great educational experiment. BOL

JohnMorr08 · 01-12-09, 11:34 PM

Well, a rough start. But we'll be back at it tomorrow to get it back!

Current Balance: $2,815 Current Record: 1 - 2

JohnMorr08 · 01-14-09, 02:35 PM

Alright - I passed on this 'experiment' last night because I really only liked 2 plays and they were BOTH pretty even throughout the board (meaning there was no consensus - 50/50).

Tonight I'll make some plays. They do reflect my own card, but at different (much smaller) values.

NBA
Boston -3 (1st Qtr) -110 110 to win 100
Boston -10 -110 110 to win 100

San Antonio ML 135 to win 100

NCAA
Mich St. -1 / Wake +.5 TEASE -110 110 to win 100

One Parlay: 27.60 to win 250
Mich State -5
Wake Forest ML (-165)
Boston -3 (1st Q)
San Antonio ML (-135)

mixpicks · 01-14-09, 03:13 PM

Yes, John I'm Not Saying not to play the "A" I guess what I'm saying is to be patient and when the "B" or "C" come, Hit Them BIG, I also, have another computerized system, which identifieds certain spots and when they come again, Thats when I go Big, depending on the % of your edge is what determines my wager amount ala Kelly's Creation...
BOL, keep up the Excellent Work"

Love SA M/L Tonight
2-0 Lastnite, with the help of ATL+9' "A"....
Port and Knicks the nite before, Bal+3' ZOna+10 and Sun Under in Philly/NYG Under on... I have e-mailed these to my following from another site (not sure IF I can Name) p/s I don't charge them, but all these games did "Covers, maybe I can help and do the same here tonite so far SA... john I sorry to glog your thread, however, If you continue to post sure you will also make believers...

cocknocker · 01-14-09, 03:33 PM

Trust me fellas, using the appropriate system, and banging the A plays hard, this guy will get there right before your eyes and doubts. Mark my words...

DevilDog · 01-14-09, 05:46 PM

JohnMorr, honestly I was very surprised you did not have Atlanta +6.5 to +7 against Phoenix as a bet. Trust your system dude!!! And that +6.5 was not even with buying any points.

Leaving out a play that is hitting about 80% on the first game was a bit surprising. But this is your thread and I commend you for doing this. I am just here to remind you that you have something really good going with your system..those plays should always be part of this.

JohnMorr08 · 01-14-09, 05:53 PM

I agree with you 100% Double D. No excuse. I obviously played it on my own. I do have a plan in place for this little project though!!

JohnMorr08 · 01-14-09, 11:52 PM

NBA
Boston -3 (1st Qtr) -110 110 to win 100
Boston -10 -110 110 to win 100

San Antonio ML 135 to win 100

NCAA
Mich St. -1 / Wake +.5 TEASE -110 110 to win 100

One Parlay: 27.60 to win 250 win 120
Mich State -5 push/cancel
Wake Forest ML (-165) win
Boston -3 (1st Q) win
San Antonio ML (-135) win

Current Balance: $3,335 Current Record: 5 - 2

keitht · 01-14-09, 11:54 PM

nice picks.....liked the parlay, but forgot to bet it

lambogb · 01-14-09, 11:58 PM

nice picks im on u tmrw!
BOL

darkenergy · 01-15-09, 12:01 AM

Excellent card. Especially your call of ML on SA, this call starting to get me thinking of drop the local guy for good. Thanks

DevilDog · 01-15-09, 01:05 AM

Great job!

mixpicks · 01-15-09, 04:48 PM

1st. Excellent Job.
I like betting quarters which ones let you par quarters with games etc...
Thanks.
_________

mixpicks · 01-15-09, 04:51 PM

I have 2 offshore and neither one lets me par 1Q
_____________________
Do Like Dsi can buy pts on pars,

JohnMorr08 · 01-15-09, 06:52 PM

NCAA

North Carolina -8.5 (1st half) 110 to win 100
North Carolina -15.5 (Game) 220 to win 200

San Diego -11 (1st half) 110 to win 100
San Diego -19 (Game) 110 to win 100

i_pick_winners1 · 01-15-09, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by strictlywinners

Very interesting thread, I love the idea, and it is very possible to do so, really if you are willing to assume some risk, all you need to do is go 3-0

1st bet 3000 to win 2700
2nd bet 5700 to win 5150
3rd bet 10850 to win 9900

Just like that with only 3 correct bets you have cracked the 20k mark, it is that easy. Only bad thing is, one bad pick or one game that goes wrong and the experiment is over.

EXACTLY -- this is the easiest and QUICKEST way to do it. Pick three winners. BANG. Problem solved.