Mavericks @ LA Clippers 12/28/08

[Razz_Donkey]

Current odds show this as a dead even heat. Mavericks have been a difficult team at least for me to figure out this year. Their road scoring is only .5 off their season average and road defense is better allowing less PPG from opponents. They won convincingly against Houston, Sac, Wash, and Toronto this year on the road, and sit at 10-5 against the spread on the road.

LA Clippers have had some strange outings, they beat Miami and Houston at home but couldn't handle Toronto? Clippers also suffer from very poor scoring at home, showing nearly 4 points less per game as compared with their season average. To make matters worse, they are a dismal 4-10 against the spread at home.

It looks to me like Dallas should have an edge here. What are your thoughts? Any revelations or other feelings out there?

[W0lfy]

Clippers lost to Toronto because Camby missed the game last second, so we should let that slide. Main thing to look at here is who is playing for the Clippers. Is Randolph and Camby playing? Dirk out for a game so that balances it somewhat.

[R3Sports]

Dirk isn't playing, I think I still like Dallas here.

[Wilforth]

Randolph out for Clippers.

[Wilforth]

On the whole, Dallas are still the better side here. That Dallas are 9-6 on the road and LAC are 3-11 at home speaks volumes.

[Razz_Donkey]

Good points, Randolph is listed as unlikely and Dirk is suspended. Dallas has a very productive bench, so perhaps they can make up for the lack of Dirk's scoring presence. Camby will be playing for LAC, he practiced with them yesterday I believe.

I should also note that LAC beat the Mavs at home earlier this season by 11, and the Mavs only won by 2 at home this year against the Clippers... Kind of a toss up, but I agree Dallas does seem like a more reliable team and their road record is impressive.

By the way, with Dirk and Randolph not playing does the under 186 total points start to look like a good bet? Might be in for a really low scoring game...

[Wilforth]

Under does look good in the absence of Dirk and Randolph but should they go into OT, the Under might be screwed up. Dallas have the better bench so Dirk's absence isn't as hurting to Dallas as Randolph's absence is to LAC.

[rdgn123]

Under does look good in the absence of Dirk and Randolph but should they go into OT, the Under might be screwed up. Dallas have the better bench so Dirk's absence isn't as hurting to Dallas as Randolph's absence is to LAC.

disagreed, look for baron and thornton to have big games. clippers win.

[Wilforth]

disagreed, look for baron and thornton to have big games. clippers win.

Why have Baron and Thornton failed to have big games all this while that LAC have won only 3 of 14 at home?

[Razz_Donkey]

Spread bouncing all over the place, and O/U is falling. This was one of the last lines set for today's games I believe... could be an interesting ballgame. I'll be watching and update with thoughts at the half.

[Wilforth]

LAC didn't score for the first 5 minutes of the 1Q.

[W0lfy]

Such a garbage game, was offered tickets for it but didn't go. Phew.

[Razz_Donkey]

1st Quarter stats: Mavs shooting 47%, 100% from the line, 75% from 3pt range.
Clippers on the other hand are 23% from the field, 0% from 3pt range, and 62% from the line.

Under the 186 mark is looking solid so far. Camby playing well for LAC, Howard off to a great start for the Mavs.

[Wilforth]

RD,

I'm not watching the game but from what you're seeing, which team is more likely to win?

[Wilforth]

I don't know why on Earth I didn't play this one to go Under.

[W0lfy]

I don't know if you can say who's more likely to win, but it should be Dallas. Clippers had a nice little run, but down the stretch I don't see them having enough fire power to compete with Dallas.

[Wilforth]

Wolfy,

I believe you 1000%

[Razz_Donkey]

Halftime report: I'm watching this game live via broadband league pass. Clippers look rather sloppy. Perhaps TOO much rest during the holidays (their last game was on 12/22). Baron Davis has 0 points. Camby is doing everything right now. 12 points, 9 rebs, 4 blocks at the half for Camby. Clippers will struggle to make up ground, they are miserable at 3 point shooting.

Mavericks are looking solid. Kidd is having a good game with 6 rebs and 4 assists so far. Howard has 15 points and 6 rebs. Dallas needs to figure out Camby, Dampier and Bass had better step up on rebounding and blocks. Mavs won't need to score a lot to win, just continue to control the tempo and trade baskets.

LAC might make a run and close the gap a bit, but from what I've seen I doubt they close this out without some kinda miracle. Under was definetly the best bet on this game. No way this game goes over 175 without overtime, and the line closed about 10 points higher than that (on pace for a whopping 158 pts).

I hope this helps anyone looking at betting the half.

[Razz_Donkey]

Dallas adds to lead. Now up by 15 at end of third. High scoring 3rd quarter is a threat to the under for total score. If Dallas slows the pace and keeps up of their defense we should see them close this out and still make the under.

[W0lfy]

There are no sure bets, but this was damn close to one.

[curious]

I'm on Clippers 4Q...Already cashed Dallas 1Q

Looks like 4Q is a loser.

[Wilforth]

Dallas = easy money

[Razz_Donkey]

Dallas gets there and the total is under at 174, close to what i noted at halftime. Strangely the Clippers allowed the lead to double rather than closing the gap. Truly a terrible performance from them, it should be worth noting for their next game if they still lack Randolph. Davis ended with 10 points after fouling out. Clippers add to the misery at home, another trend to take note of for their next home games.