Leans for 12/24/08

[danrman]

hey ck what do you think about the hawaii game if the number nd-2 1/2 stays the same and they just add more juice so its nd-2 1/2 -115????...
nba lines for xmas:
or-4 1/2
phoenix-2 1/2
lakes-1 1/2
cleve-14 1/2
port-4

[Devon]

A Merry Christmas to CK and the rest of the CK Mafia! It's been a great few days lately and I'm grateful as that we have a bunch of kick arse cappers willing to give each other a hand around here and spread their knowledge.

Lines are out CK, my man. Most of them are opposite to the projected ones, so their looking alright for the teams you're rooting.

New Orleans at Orlando-6.5 over/under 187.5 (projected) +4.5

San Antonio at Phoenix-5.5 over/under 200.5 (projected) +3.0

Boston at Los Angeles-5.5 over/under 198 +1.5

Dallas at Portland+2.5 over under 190.5 (Projected) +4.0

Washington at Cleveland-11.5 over/under 188.5 (projected) -14.5

Would you recommend jumping on any of them at the moment? Ie. Hornets, Boston & Spurs.

[nonsense48]

fair thee well and happy holidays everyone. peace

[jayc88]

still confident hawai jumps to +3 right before kickoff ,
right now i get it at +3 -118

[cocknocker]

Devon,

No I don't recommend jumping on any of them. I will put up a thread later on tonight, and thn I will make my decision as to what side I will choose. Can't give recommendations when i haven't decided myself. New Orleans is a given, but with only 25% of bettors on their side, the 6.5 I presented is still not a stretch. The Lakers spread is actually quite intriguing. I am quite shocked that Boston wasn't given more points to be honest..Although the Lakers haven't been covering they have been winning the majority of their games..

[cs11787]

Whats up with the reverse line movement on the ND/Haw game???

[eidolon]

why not just play Hawaii to win it?

[cocknocker]

eidolon,

Be our guest and let us know how it turns out...

[cocknocker]

cs11787,

There is no reverse movement. The line is doing what it is supposed to do when a majority of people are on one side. It's suuposed to go up. I am just waiting for the magic number. When i see +3, then I will react.

[nonsense48]

ck, at vegasinsider they show n.d. -20' line and with a -22 edge. explain please

[Dexter]

Whats up with the reverse line movement on the ND/Haw game???

unless i'm missing something - the line is moving in the right direction. 60% of the public is on NDame, and the line has moved from ndame +2.5 to -2.5.

[nonsense48]

are they saying nd should win by 22 pts???????????????

[nonsense48]

i've never seen a value index that far off the spread

[cocknocker]

nonsense48,

I have no idea what that is..

[nonsense48]

i think maybe this flu bug has my mind off kilter

[cocknocker]

I have this game pegged as a PK. I have been doing tis a long time, and if they are insinuating that Notre Dame wins by 22, they are so far off that it is pathetic..

[nonsense48]

"

[nonsense48]

i thought the same...way off

[nonsense48]

i also capped it as a pk or ha -1

[danrman]

hey ck my book has attached a -115 to the nd-2 1/2 spread.. this is just to cover for more bettors on nd right??

[shoebox]

hey ck my book has attached a -115 to the nd-2 1/2 spread.. this is just to cover for more bettors on nd right??

It depends, sometimes they try to trick the better to take the 115, cause it makes it appealing to the novice. When the lines gonna shift is when you see (-120)(-130). However, to get true understanding on money movements you need to go to a site that carries information on where the money is going to on the books.

[cocknocker]

Okay folks, I have new information. I am changing my play to Notre Dame-2.5 and rocking it like that. I am going to go with the line movement, and go against the grain on my own play, as all week I have liked Hawaii. I have been kind of hot in football, so i am due for a full game spread loss. So going against my ratianol thinking I am going to take the Fighting Irish, as i just had a moment of clarity. Plus I never got the magic number that I desired for playing Hawaii! if the game is to be decided by only a field goal to get the win, iwill go with the team that has had the longer drought in between bowl wins, and that would be Notre Dame. i don't know how they will do it. But for some reason I feel funny about this game, and I think that they just might pull it off against my better judgement.

Notre Dame-2.5

[cocknocker]

However, I am not a fool. i am also hedging my wager with a small play on Hawaii's moneyline so I won't lose outright. I still want something in return, homies. I just want to watch the game and relax

[danrman]

i've been feeling funny about it also.. i dont like hawaii's qb and i think the line would be higher if not for hawaii giving cinncinnatti a run for their money on national tv... there are enough hawaii bettors out there and this might be one where the public wins(ie nd bettors).. it is xmas and what bettor way to sucker some novice bettors into betting than an easy win w/ nd.. they gotta break this 9 gm bowl winless streak sometime.. last night this same type of line movement produced an underdog win.. tonight it will be the opposite..

[cocknocker]

Here we go Notre Dame, Here we go! Clap Clap Here we go Notre Dame here we go! Clap Clap

[Smacksmiter]

I have been watching this one for quite some time...my gut has always said that the Irish, despite their poor record, are a step up in class for Hawaii and have great motivation to win this game. That is countered by the home field advantage for the Rainbows and the Hawaii vacation atmosphere....Line movement clearly going for the Irish in a dominating fashion..

These types of games steer me to a teaser...In the end, I like the points and the Hawaiian mystique...I see alot of points being scored tonight so give me...

Hawaii +8.5 and over 43.5...small play to just make it fun to watch ...

Good luck all!

[shoebox]

Yo CK is there a high school gem you could find us for tonight? Lol, us degenerates just get one tonight.
Im playing
total over 49

gl

[nonsense48]

"

[cocknocker]

This Hawaii/Notre Dame game is going under homies, just so you'll all know....

[nonsense48]

i agree u 48'

[cocknocker]

nonsense48,

No I didn't check it out. I looked up the moneyline figures at Sportsinsights, and it was 50/50, yet the movement was only 59-41% which is not that great a difference to promote such an advantage. So I looked at it as if i just walked in from off the street and looked at this matchup from a numbers standpoint, what would I do. And a moment of claity grabbed me. Notre Dame it is.

[nonsense48]

i'm stayin' with just my straight play ha +3

[nonsense48]

good luck brother. i went the other way so 1 of us has to win.

[nonsense48]

my local tells me that he has 85% on nd so he's prayin' for haw to hit but this is big nd backed area

[Smacksmiter]

Hmm...Coach Weiss is coaching from the upstairs box tonight secondary to bad knees...he might be more dangerous from that vantage point than down on the field actually...