Leans for 12/24/08

[cocknocker]

Time to stuff the stocking ladies and gents. With only one game on the docket, we have to be careful.

I have a yen for wagering against Notre Dame. They have a great play caller in their coach Charlie Weis, but a poor decision maker at quarterback. Because of that inability to make good throws this game is listed in my book as a pick em, but of course because of name recognition, Notre Dame has the majority of bettors on their side to the tune of 60% to 40%. The line shifted from Hawaii-1.5 to Notre Dame-2 with this consensus finding. Now with such a vilent shift which amounts to a 5 point swing, it is difficult to figure out what the linemaker has in store for us.

I am gonna take my chances with the Rainbow Warriors +3.5, as according to public demand, the Fighting Irish will be -3 by gametime. I suggest wagerers who are interested in taking the Fighting Irish to get on their job and take them early in the morning. Guys like me should wait until right up until gametime and flip a wager on the Rainbow Warriors. This game will be a squeaker, and not decided by more than a field goal, so hold on tight, and fasten your seatbelts!

Hawaii+3.5 (With public donations and buying a hook)



OKAY FOLKS, I HAVE CHANGED MY PLAY TO NOTRE DAME -2.5 AS OF 4:00PM

[The_Kid]

Clausen is overrated and was way overhyped coming out of high school. Notre Dame is not that good and they don't impress me one bit either. IMO, they shouldn't have made a bowl game. I love it that all the Notre Dame homers are hammering their hometeam. Love the play, CK. Will wait till gametime to see the line reach +3.

[El Degeneroso]

Solid analysis as usual. My main concern in this one is ND's absolute desperation for a bowl win, coupled with Charlie's need to get s solid performance from his team on a "big" stage. However, I've watched probably 5 ND games this year and have found very little to convince me that they are even a decent team. They had a very weak schedule, and IMO their two best performances this year were their 38-21 win against Purdue and a 24-29 loss at UNC. Nothing to write home about. ND finished the season 1-4 with the win against Navy and a loss to a wretched Syracuse team.

Hawaii, on the other hand, finished their last 6 games 4-2, with losses to Utah State and BCS bound Cincinnati. They beat several of 7-5ish teams (Nevada, La Tech) who I think are every bit as good as ND. Playing a home game here, ND was not good on the road. However, I really don't think that Hawaii is very good, which makes me somewhat uneasy betting them here. With that said, to me there are more factors in their favor here.

Normally wouldn't likely bet this one, but being the fiend for action that I am need something on a slow day, so taking Hawaii on the ML at +115. GL to all, regardless of how your leaning.

[CTS5]

I went with TCU today despite having a feelling of going with the points and taking boise. When teams are matched up well, it is good to go with the points, as is the case here. The spread is -2 Notre Dame, and just like CK said, is only so because the linemaker knows that the public wiill go with notre dame as they are doing so. I believe it will be a close game, and I gotta go with Hawaii here at +3. However, the only fact making me not go too heavy on it is Notre Dame's desperation to win here, especially after they extended Weis' contract despite him having another loosing season. I believe that Weis has a statement to make here, and should have his team readier than ever. Still leaning towards Hawaii especially since theyre at home in Hawaii time zone. This will be a game time decision, and I want to see if Hawaii will be around +3 during game time.

[El Degeneroso]

I went with TCU today despite having a feelling of going with the points and taking boise. When teams are matched up well, it is good to go with the points, as is the case here. The spread is -2 Notre Dame, and just like CK said, is only so because the linemaker knows that the public wiill go with notre dame as they are doing so. I believe it will be a close game, and I gotta go with Hawaii here at +3. However, the only fact making me not go too heavy on it is Notre Dame's desperation to win here, especially after they extended Weis' contract despite him having another loosing season. I believe that Weis has a statement to make here, and should have his team readier than ever. Still leaning towards Hawaii especially since theyre at home in Hawaii time zone. This will be a game time decision, and I want to see if Hawaii will be around +3 during game time.

Yeah the more I think about it I'm gonna stay away from the ML and take Hawaii at +3.5. Hopefully patience is a virtue and Hawaii does go to +3.

[RkD KiD]

TCU's moneyline cashed today....after tonights research i really think Notre Dame's line will cash..

[1Time!]

Hey Guys.. newbie here from Australia..
Looking to have a go at tomorrow's game which will be on our time Christmas Day lunchtime..
So will sit down with a feast and cheer on Hawaii!
Looking at taking either:
Hawaii +1.5 / Total Combined Game Score over 47.5
or
Hawaii +1.5 / Total Combined Game Score under 47.5

which should i take??

The local sportsbook i use is pretty tight on lines & is only offering +1.5

Thanks guys and Merry Christmas!!

[joanapoker]

Merry xmas ck and all the board!

Keep all the good work!
Cya 2morrow

[Dexter]

thanks to pronk for opening my eyes to this fine crew. i make a few plays per day, and will gladly post my opinions/analysis to bounce off of you guys. been reading this thread for a few weeks now, and I love the in-depth analysis, and friendly nature of all you guys.

i like hawaii in this game tonight to get the outright win. notre dame has always been a very overrated team, and the public has been pounding them all week. this line opened at hawaii -2.5 and now n.dame is a 2 pt favorite. hawaii backers will likely be able to get a fg by kickoff. a few reasons why i'm taking the pts.

• -this is a home game for hawaii, and weiss will have to somehow keep these kids focused on football and not all the beautiful distractions around them (beach, women etc)
• -ndame (imo, an overrrated program) has a 2-9 ats mark in bowl games since 1992
• -hawaii is 4-2 ats in the underdog role this year
• -hawaii comes into the game playing much better (having won 3 of 4 su and ats) than ndame (who have lost 3 of 4 su and ats)

reading the line movement on a team like ndame (when they're getting played) is worthless to me since they are "americas team" when it comes to college football. the public should continue to bet this line to 3. if you see it float down towards hawaii, you know thats the *smart* money. Merry Xmas fellas.

**hawaii**

[jglo2576]

CK - good analysis ...

Hawaii will be trying to removing the bad taste left in their mouth from last years' beatdown in their bowl game. ND's D has major issues and their O has been flat, regardless of who is calling plays. I am trying to find a reason to take ND here ... talent wise ND should have the edge but I just can't buy into them.

Merry Christmas boys ... HAWAII

[smoothswinging14]

Hey CK and board members, Merry Christmas to you all.

[jglo2576]

Thanks CK, everyone for a profitable evening ... 4-1 last night. Should have hit all if it were not for my Cavs clipping me for the half. Can't and won't complain about a winning night though. Thanks for everyone's input!

[cocknocker]

88% of bettors are on the over, yet the line has not budged from 48.5. Looks like a light play on the under is in order. But what can i say? I'm just waiting and smoking. Alls that I know is that Hawaii is 17-3 straight up at home and 2-0 ats this season as a home dog. They haven't been a dog of 2 or less since 2004, but in games where they are a dog of 2 or les, they are 4-2 straight up and ats.

Hawaii is sun, fun and atmosphere. It is very easy to get distracted. Why, one look at the local ladies and you might want to move there permanently if it weren't for the inflated cost of living out there.. Hawaii has always been one o the best kept secrets in college football wagering at home. They have no business catching points in this game. As I announced, I had this game as a (PK) with a slight edge for Hawaii due to the fact that they play on a different surface than Notre Dame does. Always play a home dog that plays on a different surface than the favored visitor. You will hit 60% of your wagers if you were to just stick to that formula.

Stick around little homies! I have some well studied football games for Sunday, and two games where the outcome will not be in question before the first half is over. "Train Smoke" plays as my brother calls them. With this being the last week of the NFL season, it will be a very tricky Sunday and some teams will not be playing all of their players, and coaches will be looking for some of their scrubs to get into the games. Som teams will be trying to get blowouts in order to stay in stride for the playoffs by building up momentum. You must be very careful what you put your money on, little homies!

[Dexter]

being that there are no other games, i'll offer up some of my xmas day nba opinions:

lakers/celtics:

i have my line on this game set at the lakers -3. the lakers have been burning tickets for a while now, and finally got into the ats win column with an impressive road win at NO.

this game has been circled on their calendars for a while now after last years finals. i like the lakers to defend their home-court in a huge xmas day game.

**lakers**
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

suns/spurs:

i have my line on this game set at phx -2.5. i like the spurs in this spot to get the outright win. why? popovich>porter getting pts. plus the revenge angle is at work for the spurs after an early season loss at home to phx.

**spurs**

[shoebox]

Don't mess with the green machine!!!!

[vassman86]

Merry Christmas to the CK Mafia! See you all tomorrow for some old fashioned bookie-ass-whooping.

[ClockCleaner]

Hey guys I have been lurking for the past few weeks but wanted to chime in with my thoughts today.


Hawaii has faced 5 teams with Top 50 Defenses: scored 10 on Florida, 7 on Oregon St, 17 on San Jose St, 7 on Boise St, and 24 on Cincinnati. They went 0-5 in those games, 2 of those games were at home. Thats an average of 11 points per game. Notre Dame is 38th Total Defense and their Passing Defense is their strength. They also get 2 starters back on D, who missed the final 2-3 games.

Hawaii always has better production on Offense at home, however, and Notre Dame had no problems scoring against bad defenses. Hawaii is 75th in Total Defense. That makes this total dangerous.

If Notre Dame is motivated, they should win this game. Notre Dame or no play for me due to the obvious struggles for Hawaii against decent Defense.

Feel free to add.

[cocknocker]

Well, while we're at it, might as well get a jump on tomorrow's action...

New Orleans at Orlando-6.5 over/under 187.5 (projected)

The Hornets play the Magic very well in Florida and are only 1 single basket away from being 5-0 ats and 3-2 straight up. As it stands they are 4-1 ats, but coming offof a blowout loss to the Lakers, they are in a cross roads, as their recent form finds them at .500 2-2-1 ats.

Orlando for their part have been a covering machine going 8-0 ats in their last 8 games overall. They are playing a wonderful brand of basketball right now, and it woould be hard to go against hem in this matchup.

The under is 3-2 in the last 5 games between these two teams in Orlando, with average toals lines of 187 and actual combined game scores averaging 188. Don't expect any relief from the linemaker on the total. This line will be tight and on point.

San Antonio at Phoenix-5.5 over/under 200.5 (projected)

The Phoenix Suns beat the Spurs 103-98 in an earlier season matchup between these clubs in Texas. The combined score of 201 went over the total of 185 listed for that game. These are the only teams that have previously played each other tis season on the card for Christmas Day.

Phoenix has looked awfully better than they did prior to the acquisition of Jason Richardson. They look faster now. In recent form they are 2-3 ats, but make no mistake about it they are much better now.

San Antonio has had a brutal schedule, and their recent 1-3-1 ats record reflects the effects of that schedule. They are just what they are..a bunch of grizzled veterans playing together for zillion years.

The under is 4-1 in the games played in Phoenix between thee two top notch franchises, with average over/under lines of 200.5 and with actual combined game scores that average 185. Look for the linemaker to make an adjustment for this game, and make the total a little smaller than usual. If he does, a play for the over may be the way to go...

Boston at Los Angeles-5.5 over/under 198

This of course is the marquee game of the schedule for Christmas. The Lakers have been winning a lot of games, but failing to cover. It's just that simple. The Lakers have been a wallet burning 3-16 ats in their last 19 games. A virtual fading machine.

The Celtics are the polar opposites going 9-4 ats in their last 13 games, cashing tickets and blowoing out teams of late.

The over is 3-2 in games played in Tinsle Town, with average totals lines of 198, and actual combined game scores of 195.2


Dallas at Portland+2.5 over under 190.5 (Projected)

The Mavs are 3-2 ats in recent form, and they have been a hard team to figure out. They have had a weird schedule where they have gone on the road for 3 games in 4 days, then came home to play one game and now go back on the road to play Portland, where they have been giving points away on the regular. It would look odd for Dallas to suddenly be a dog in this game, so the linemaker will have to make Portland a dog in order to keep people from jumping all over the Blazers in this matchup (this will make sense to wagerers only).

Portland will be playing their third game in 4 days when this game tips off, but lucky for them it will be their second home game with one day's rest after a home and home with the Nuggets. Portland is 3-2 ats in their last 5 games, and are playing a little better after a bad streak of not covering.

The teams have usual over/under lines of 190.5, and actual combined game scores of 194.

Washington at Cleveland-11.5 over/under 188.5 (projected)

The Wizards are playing a little better of late, and with a little bit of tweaking hey can get a lot better with the inclusion of Gilbert Arenas playing again in the lineup. They are 0-5 ats in thier last 5 games, but I look for that to improve after teams start finding it a little more difficult to guard them once Arenas is fully tuned up again.

Cleveland for their part are wallet stuffers with a sterling 14-2 ats record in their last 16 games regardless of the venue. The Cavs will be serious contenders for the Easern Conference title at the end of this season. This team has no visible weaknesses.

The under has cashed 3-2 in the last 5 games with these teams in Cleveland, with average over/under lines of 188.5 and actual game scores of 188.2. Don't expect any love from the linemaker on the total. It would be best to just flip a coin

I will give my take on the sides for tomorrow's hardwood action later on tonight. Until then, happy sipping. And please don't drive under the influence.

[Dexter]

CK - elaborate on your *projected* line - is that what your numbers crunch the game final out to be?

I like to simply make my overnight line for what I would make the spread at - then see if there is any value based on what comes out/what i like in the game etc...ie, i have the lakers at -3 tomorrow and do like them after capping the game - if the line turns out to be lakers -1, i'm getting great value for what i have the line at - thus would likely throw a few more $$$ on LA.

[cocknocker]

No Dexter, that's the projected spread.

[cocknocker]

The line is now Hawaii+2.5, but with Notre Dame bieng such a public team, I am going to wait it out some more. i think that the linemaker will give me a hot 3, ad therefore, i can get my line all the way up to 4 with a 1 point buy. If it stays where it is, i will play this game at +3.5

[shoebox]

CK from the numbers it looks like your right there has been a lot of movement so far in this game. Do you think the Irish backers will be enough to drive the line to 3? Im not so sure its gonna move much more...

[ManBearPig]

Being a Nevada fan I am familiar with HI and if it's one thing they do is play over their heads at home. If you look at their record they are 5-2 at home and 2-4 which should be a good indicator of when they're best. If you throw that with the fact that they are playing a bowl game against the all might ND they will be playing out of their minds today. For some reason they are just a completely different team at home than the road and they are not a great team. They will be a step faster and the more aggressive team especially at the start. I personally cannot stand them due to this but I fully expect this to come to fruition once again.

[cocknocker]

shoe,

The Irish are a very public team for some unexplained reason. I think that the line will definitely go up as the day goes on. The linemaker must make it harder for them to cover and also appeal to Hawaii backers to bite. The idea is to get money on both sides of the fence, or as close as possible to getting that effect with modification of the line. The squares will continue to back the Irish even though they haven't won a bowl game in 9 tries. This is a home game for Hawaii. They don't lose too often at home as a dog.

[cocknocker]

Thou shalt not wager against the Celtics and their referees in a big game....

[shoebox]

Thou shalt not wager against the Celtics and their referees in a big game....

Not to mention there playing LA and will flex there muscle to prove why they are da champs!

[Wilforth]

I'm on Hawaii ML.

[Alex68]

Hi CK, I want to thank and wish U & CK Mafia Merry X-mas.

[ClockCleaner]

Well, while we're at it, might as well get a jump on tomorrow's action...



Dallas at Portland+2.5 over under 190.5 (Projected)

The Mavs are 3-2 ats in recent form, and they have been a hard team to figure out. They have had a weird schedule where they have gone on the road for 3 games in 4 days, then came home to play one game and now go back on the road to play Portland, where they have been giving points away on the regular. It would look odd for Dallas to suddenly be a dog in this game, so the linemaker will have to make Portland a dog in order to keep people from jumping all over the Blazers in this matchup (this will make sense to wagerers only).

Portland will be playing their third game in 4 days when this game tips off, but lucky for them it will be their second home game with one day's rest after a home and home with the Nuggets. Portland is 3-2 ats in their last 5 games, and are playing a little better after a bad streak of not covering.

The teams have usual over/under lines of 190.5, and actual combined game scores of 194.

How did you figure Portland is 2.5 pt dog at home to the mediocre Mavs? Dallas is a fraud and Portland will be at least a 5 pt favorite.

[peterpan19]

if dallas is a 5 point dog (which will never happen) I buy him up to 6 and make it a big play for me, port probably wins, but not by more than 6 pts
Dallas is 15-2 SU vs Por (home or away) and 6-2 in its last 8 games in Portland

[cocknocker]

peterpan and ClockCleaner,

That is precisely why I think that Portland will be a home dog. Dallas getting 5 would be a gift given the history of these two teams.

ClockCleaner, we don't handicap with emotions. We don't label teams as frauds. We just call em how we see em. Dallas just has Portland's number and that's all there is to it.

[ClockCleaner]

if dallas is a 5 point dog (which will never happen) I buy him up to 6 and make it a big play for me, port probably wins, but not by more than 6 pts
Dallas is 15-2 SU vs Por (home or away) and 6-2 in its last 8 games in Portland

Dallas struggles vs. good teams and this a bad matchup for them.

This is'nt the same Dallas team that had Portland and lots of other teams numbers. Since the trade for Jason Kidd they have struggled against good teams and have racked up most of there wins against sub .500 teams. Portland is not the same team either as they are one of the top teams in the west now.

If the Blazers are favored by 4 or less I'll go big on them.

[showtime2000]

CK, any thoughts on the half time play? They seemed to be pretty good in the first halves of games. Some stats,

Hawaii averages in all games 14.0 at the half and gives up 12.5 points at the half
Hawaii averages in home games 15.3 points at the half and gives up 9.1 points at the half
Hawaii last 3 games they average 16.0 points at the half and gives up 7.7 points at the half

Now let's look at Notre Dame

ND in all games averages 12.0 points at the half and gives up 9.8 points at the half
ND in road games averages 7.3 points at the half and gives up 10.0 points at the half
ND last 3 games averages 7.7 points at the half and gives up 13.7 points at half

There seems to be a slight edge in playing Hawaii at the half aswell based on their home dominance and Notre Dames lack of scoring in the firts half of games on the road.

CK thoughts?

[Dexter]

portland opens as a 4pt favorite - my early lean was on the mavs, but looking a little deeper into the game - not crazy about the mavs last 2 trips to portland (su and ats losses) - but they are great on the road this year (9-4 ats) and howard is starting to get the rust off. back to playing 30+mpg.

[peterpan19]

bos +1
no +4.5 (opened at 5)
spurs/suns under 202 (opened at 203)
(suns -3)
mavs +4 (maybe goes up more ?)

plays that look good right now