Question about reverse line movement

Rone247 · 03-06-13, 12:44 PM

Betting against Miami is never sharp but in your example, hawks are the play.

SpreadSniper · 03-06-13, 12:48 PM

the "sharp" play could have been the +7... but once it's gone the "value" behind the play is somewhat removed as you are typically paying the same price for a somewhat "worse" number.

Brebos · 03-06-13, 01:07 PM

Alright thanks guys, this was purely theory, at this moment in time betting against miami would be giving away money. Could one say that when reverse line movement occurs on a matchup that lies closer to each other it's smart to follow it?

nammertl · 03-06-13, 01:13 PM

it takes almost no capping ability to follow line movement.

Rone247 · 03-06-13, 01:21 PM

Personally I think line movement just gets you in trouble. Trust yourself and your plays.

HardCore · 03-06-13, 01:40 PM

and its march ignore all line movements they will burn you. Favs are going to be the play for the rest of the year. I said it before and ill say it again these lazy over payed players are trying now which means good teams will play hard EVERY night and trash ass teams will begin to tank for more lottery balls. If this was december sac+5/Phi+3 wouldve cashed last night hell a couple of nights ago cle+3 and tor+6 wouldve cashed but its march and these playoff teams actually WANT TO WIN. NYK wouldve stop trying had that happend earlier in the year but no they kept trying cause its march and the games matter now

trendon · 03-06-13, 04:36 PM

It pretty much is the first thing I look for when I start looking at the games. Don't bet it blindly, but it is one big, gigantic, "HEY, LOOK OVER HERE!" sign.

Brebos · 03-06-13, 05:20 PM

So here is an example tonight: http://www.thespread.com/nba-basketb...s#.UTe_fBzcmk0
As you can see the line moved from +2.5 for the rockets to +1.5, Utah Jazz also went from -1 to +1, are these good indications for us to decide to put some money on the cavs and rockets?
Or does this tell us something else?
(I had a bet on the rockets before I saw this fyi)

nammertl · 03-06-13, 05:27 PM

1 point isn't really that much. could just be public money being influenced by the last game.

when it goes the other way 3 points is when you really have to wonder.

like denver/sac yesterday total opened at 221, which i thought was a high number when these teams face other, but at opening it was 224.5. and of course the game total went over that.

Brebos · 03-06-13, 05:30 PM

Ahaa, so you have to keep an eye out for the bigger swings.

Brebos · 03-08-13, 11:42 AM

Originally posted by Brebos

So here is an example tonight: http://www.thespread.com/nba-basketb...s#.UTe_fBzcmk0
As you can see the line moved from +2.5 for the rockets to +1.5, Utah Jazz also went from -1 to +1, are these good indications for us to decide to put some money on the cavs and rockets?
Or does this tell us something else?
(I had a bet on the rockets before I saw this fyi)

Coming back to my own reply: The cavs defeated utah and the rockets ALMOST covered.
Today we see the mavericks opening at +5 and now at -4 and utah going from +5 to +4.
Also the totals of GS vs The Rockets went from 224.5 to 221.5, thats a 3 point difference!!!