Spurs are going to lose to the Suns who are on a b2b.
Do results like this make you question whether you should actually bother with the NBA?
Allure
SBR Hall of Famer
08-18-10
7606
#2
Just pick your spots. Be patient. And whenever you see bullshit lines, bet accordingly.
Comment
Vinnie Paz
SBR Posting Legend
03-27-12
12177
#3
Yea sometimes, but really this line was way inflated, last time they played suns were in it all game and blew it late, I guess this time they came in like "we should've had em last game, lets not piss it away tonight"
Not so sure Phoenix is actually built like that mentally but who knows right. Some nights I do well, others I get fukked. Earlier in the season it was all reading line movement and betting rlm games, lately that's just got me burnt though.
In reality though you could just bet/ fade a handful of teams ATS every game and make bank, it's not as hard to make units as guys make it out to be. Next season im gonna do a thread on this, similar to wantitall4moi has but a few more teams, guys will see it can be done.
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underal
SBR High Roller
02-27-12
224
#4
you need to look for value not winners. suns +1700 means less than a 6% chance of winning. I played it for 0.1 units not because I thought they would win but because I gave them an 8% chance. In the long run there is + e.v. on these plays
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ChiLLx
SBR Hall of Famer
12-24-11
5412
#5
Originally posted by Vinnie Paz
Yea sometimes, but really this line was way inflated, last time they played suns were in it all game and blew it late, I guess this time they came in like "we should've had em last game, lets not piss it away tonight"
Not so sure Phoenix is actually built like that mentally but who knows right. Some nights I do well, others I get fukked. Earlier in the season it was all reading line movement and betting rlm games, lately that's just got me burnt though.
In reality though you could just bet/ fade a handful of teams ATS every game and make bank, it's not as hard to make units as guys make it out to be. Next season im gonna do a thread on this, similar to wantitall4moi has but a few more teams, guys will see it can be done.
I've made 41 units just labby fading the Lakers ATS every game this season so yes you are right. Honestly so stress free cuz even if you lose the books will always inflate the Laker lines so the next loss is not far away.
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Vinnie Paz
SBR Posting Legend
03-27-12
12177
#6
Yep Lakers are 1 of those teams on my list, I fade them every game and if I lose I just chase it
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BigDofBA
SBR Posting Legend
09-30-09
19313
#7
Nothing is beatable for this board. We are degenerate gamblers who bet like 5 games every day.
If you're patient you could but who are we kidding, we aren't.
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No coincidences
SBR Aristocracy
01-18-10
76300
#8
They all make millions guaranteed and a ton of them smoke weed, party all night and sleep all day before tip.
If they don't care about a meaningless mid-week game, why should we?
There is zero motivation from either side in most of these games we bet on.
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BigDofBA
SBR Posting Legend
09-30-09
19313
#9
Originally posted by No coincidences
They all make millions guaranteed and a ton of them smoke weed, party all night and sleep all day before tip.
If they don't care about a meaningless mid-week game, why should we?
There is zero motivation from either side in most of these games we bet on.
100 correct. I've cut my NBA plays down a lot this year and I need to cut them down even more.
Who are we kidding? If these guys weren't 6'7 and could jump, they would be working at McDonald's. It's a bunch of overpaid, uneducated thugs. They do the dumbest things and sometimes they don't even show up.
Sometimes you can't even explain the shit they do. For example, I had the under in the Raptors/Clippers game and Caron Butler acts like he is going to shake the Raptor's players hand, and then he stills the ball with like 3 seconds left in a 30 point game, draws a clear path foul, and I don't win my bet because of it.
Sometimes these clowns sprint up court jacking three pointers in the final 2 minutes of blowouts. Other times they just dribble the clock out and don't try to score.
Sometimes they foul down 7 points with 5 seconds left. Sometimes they let the clock run out down 4.
Other times the coachs continue to call times outs and foul, all the while setting up plays for lay ups when it's a three poessesion game in the final 10 seconds, other times that say F*ck it and concede defeat.
I've seen it all. For the most part it's completely random yet it always seems to fall right on the number. We're probably betting on the WWE and a few rich people behind the scenes are just laughing their asses off at as. I swear most this shit seems scripted. Even games I have no money on.
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pacocn
SBR Posting Legend
07-05-10
12934
#10
Hawley, check out the thread "get on board" up 32 units
this season and only one play over 1x. Nba can be had.
Comment
No coincidences
SBR Aristocracy
01-18-10
76300
#11
Originally posted by BigDofBA
100 correct. I've cut my NBA plays down a lot this year and I need to cut them down even more.
Who are we kidding? If these guys weren't 6'7 and could jump, they would be working at McDonald's. It's a bunch of overpaid, uneducated thugs. They do the dumbest things and sometimes they don't even show up.
Sometimes you can't even explain the shit they do. For example, I had the under in the Raptors/Clippers game and Caron Butler acts like he is going to shake the Raptor's players hand, and then he stills the ball with like 3 seconds left in a 30 point game, draws a clear path foul, and I don't win my bet because of it.
Sometimes these clowns sprint up court jacking three pointers in the final 2 minutes of blowouts. Other times they just dribble the clock out and don't try to score.
Sometimes they foul down 7 points with 5 seconds left. Sometimes they let the clock run out down 4.
Other times the coachs continue to call times outs and foul, all the while setting up plays for lay ups when it's a three poessesion game in the final 10 seconds, other times that say F*ck it and concede defeat.
I've seen it all. For the most part it's completely random yet it always seems to fall right on the number. We're probably betting on the WWE and a few rich people behind the scenes are just laughing their asses off at as. I swear most this shit seems scripted. Even games I have no money on.
Yeah, but think about it: if you were making millions of dollars in guaranteed money at your job and it was physically taxing with a ton of travel, would you care from a production standpoint?
I don't know how much of it is the culture and lifestyle of these cats, vs. just the system that puts very little emphasis on winning and team play vs. collecting a monster paycheck. It's not a whole lot different than in baseball, when you see a guy get a huge contract and then disappear with all sorts of phantom injuries. Who are we kidding? These guys lose their desire to show up, and I don't necessarily blame them because I'd probably be the same way if my motivation to work hard and succeed disappeared.
As long as a guy can make mad bank to be a big-time scorer for a shitty franchise that doesn't care about getting any better, you're going to see a shitty overall product -- and that's what the NBA is right now. Money has ruined the NBA and MLB to a certain extent, and that's kind of what makes the NFL so great -- the lack of guaranteed money/contracts.
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No coincidences
SBR Aristocracy
01-18-10
76300
#12
Originally posted by pacocn
Hawley, check out the thread "get on board" up 32 units
this season and only one play over 1x. Nba can be had.
I wouldn't start celebrating too soon pacocn. NBA has a way of "evening" things out.
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JOHON8
SBR Hall of Famer
01-28-10
7712
#13
The unpredictability makes it better for value bets. You can't look at this sport logically, only with a good sense of playing the odds and judging by experience. Experience includes knowing the tactics of bookmakers not just teams.
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byronbb
SBR MVP
11-13-08
3067
#14
Betting into -110 in NBA is tough imo. Need 1.5 points before you are getting any edge.
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RascaLinFaith
SBR Hustler
02-09-13
66
#15
if you can read the dogs well you can certainly make a lot of money
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pacocn
SBR Posting Legend
07-05-10
12934
#16
Originally posted by No coincidences
I wouldn't start celebrating too soon pacocn. NBA has a way of "evening" things out.
N.C. thanks, i appreciate your input, i am really trying to be selective this season and i will
hold off on all celebrations until we have a nba champion. Tu amigo, Pac
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pacocn
SBR Posting Legend
07-05-10
12934
#17
Originally posted by No coincidences
I wouldn't start celebrating too soon pacocn. NBA has a way of "evening" things out.
I am committed to not going below 1500 hundred up in nba and i will roll that right into "Value Plays" in mlb, i am very excited about the season, who do you like to win it all this year?
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Sport_Fish
SBR MVP
12-06-10
4079
#18
Originally posted by No coincidences
Yeah, but think about it: if you were making millions of dollars in guaranteed money at your job and it was physically taxing with a ton of travel, would you care from a production standpoint?
I don't know how much of it is the culture and lifestyle of these cats, vs. just the system that puts very little emphasis on winning and team play vs. collecting a monster paycheck. It's not a whole lot different than in baseball, when you see a guy get a huge contract and then disappear with all sorts of phantom injuries. Who are we kidding? These guys lose their desire to show up, and I don't necessarily blame them because I'd probably be the same way if my motivation to work hard and succeed disappeared.
As long as a guy can make mad bank to be a big-time scorer for a shitty franchise that doesn't care about getting any better, you're going to see a shitty overall product -- and that's what the NBA is right now. Money has ruined the NBA and MLB to a certain extent, and that's kind of what makes the NFL so great -- the lack of guaranteed money/contracts.
This.
I mean we can bash these guys all we want but the bottom line is, if all of us were in their position, there would be a GOOD MAJORITY of us who wouldn't care at many times during the season and hence why its hard to predict these things.
And I don't blame them honestly, its human nature. I think very few players in this league, and in the world in general, are capable of performing to the best of their abilities on a consistent basis, especially when its not a championship/playoff game.
Which is why I'm fully convinced if u don't wanna lose money in NBA and want to make big $ in this, you have to do it in the playoff games and also be ready to pay some juice on series bets. Its the only way ur basketball knowledge will come in handy because u aren't playing a guessing game with who will show up and who wont.
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No coincidences
SBR Aristocracy
01-18-10
76300
#19
Originally posted by Sport_Fish
This.
I mean we can bash these guys all we want but the bottom line is, if all of us were in their position, there would be a GOOD MAJORITY of us who wouldn't care at many times during the season and hence why its hard to predict these things.
And I don't blame them honestly, its human nature. I think very few players in this league, and in the world in general, are capable of performing to the best of their abilities on a consistent basis, especially when its not a championship/playoff game.
Which is why I'm fully convinced if u don't wanna lose money in NBA and want to make big $ in this, you have to do it in the playoff games and also be ready to pay some juice on series bets. Its the only way ur basketball knowledge will come in handy because u aren't playing a guessing game with who will show up and who wont.
The era of Jordan/Bird/Magic -- where you saw players have almost a bloodthirst for winning and championships -- is over for the most part. I'm not saying the league is completely void of it, but if you hooked every NBA millionaire up to a lie detector machine and asked them how important winning is once they've signed their big contract, I doubt many would pass if they answered yes. Guaranteed money has ruined the NBA and MLB. Players make millions no matter what and owners rake in billions. It's really taken the "drive" out of the sport, and I'm with you: I don't necessarily blame these guys for not caring as much.
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No coincidences
SBR Aristocracy
01-18-10
76300
#20
Originally posted by pacocn
I am committed to not going below 1500 hundred up in nba and i will roll that right into "Value Plays" in mlb, i am very excited about the season, who do you like to win it all this year?
I believe you can. Good luck my friend.
Haven't delved into MLB much yet. Will do so in the days to come.
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pacocn
SBR Posting Legend
07-05-10
12934
#21
Hawley, gotta know when to fold em,
i'm done with nba till next year, cant wait
till spring training is done and i am all over mlb
tu amigo, Pac
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pacocn
SBR Posting Legend
07-05-10
12934
#22
N.C. i appreciate your input, why lose 1500,
just gonna wait for mlb and have a 3500 br going
in. thanks again.
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Speedy88
SBR Posting Legend
03-19-11
11717
#23
About a month ago I got so fed up with NBA i moved to NCAA. Looking back at it, I can't believe i bet so much on NBA and never really looked at NCAA til the conference and NCAA tournaments. NBA is the biggest headcase sport. It's so easily influenced by the refs, and it seem like half the time players/teams don't even show up. At least with college you get some consistency.
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mistermatt891
SBR Sharp
02-14-13
371
#24
it can probably be done but you have really have to pick your spots
too many players and teams in the nba dont care which leads to wacky shit that cannot be capped and accounted for
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pacocn
SBR Posting Legend
07-05-10
12934
#25
Originally posted by Speedy88
About a month ago I got so fed up with NBA i moved to NCAA. Looking back at it, I can't believe i bet so much on NBA and never really looked at NCAA til the conference and NCAA tournaments. NBA is the biggest headcase sport. It's so easily influenced by the refs, and it seem like half the time players/teams don't even show up. At least with college you get some consistency.
Baseball and Nhl are pretty consistent too
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Aaron McCrevice
SBR Wise Guy
02-26-13
669
#26
Variance is getting you down
You're mistaken about the mentality of a pro ball player. But for sake of argument, players on either team could mail it in any given night and from a betting standpoint it would still be a wash.
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pacocn
SBR Posting Legend
07-05-10
12934
#27
Originally posted by Aaron McCrevice
Variance is getting you down
You're mistaken about the mentality of a pro ball player. But for sake of argument, players on either team could mail it in any given night and from a betting standpoint it would still be a wash.
Guy is spot on
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No coincidences
SBR Aristocracy
01-18-10
76300
#28
Originally posted by Aaron McCrevice
You're mistaken about the mentality of a pro ball player.
So you're telling me after these guys "hit it big" with their multi-year, multi-million dollar contracts they still put forth max effort on a regular basis despite the grueling travel and schedule?
Have you watched an NBA game lately?
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davidmiru
SBR Rookie
02-23-13
40
#29
Originally posted by Allure
Just pick your spots. Be patient. And whenever you see bullshit lines, bet accordingly.
this is one of the best way
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pacocn
SBR Posting Legend
07-05-10
12934
#30
Originally posted by davidmiru
this is one of the best way
True
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Aaron McCrevice
SBR Wise Guy
02-26-13
669
#31
Originally posted by No coincidences
So you're telling me after these guys "hit it big" with their multi-year, multi-million dollar contracts they still put forth max effort on a regular basis despite the grueling travel and schedule?
Have you watched an NBA game lately?
I think you're correct about a few guys, but not nearly as many as you think. Guys like Kwame Brown & Adam Morrison? Yes. Guys like Demarcus Cousins? No. It's true in all sports, by the way, and oddsmakers know about this. But again, you must respect variance.
I think this thread started because Phoenix beat San Antonio tonite, yet the Spurs are 33-26 ATS and 2-1 vs Phoenix this year. Variance.
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Sport_Fish
SBR MVP
12-06-10
4079
#32
Originally posted by Aaron McCrevice
I think you're correct about a few guys, but not nearly as many as you think. Guys like Kwame Brown & Adam Morrison? Yes. Guys like Demarcus Cousins? No. It's true in all sports, by the way, and oddsmakers know about this. But again, you must respect variance.
I think this thread started because Phoenix beat San Antonio tonite, yet the Spurs are 33-26 ATS and 2-1 vs Phoenix this year. Variance.
Its not just about one game...the point is, there is a huge factor of 'motivation' that affects things alot in this game and anyone who watches the NBA on a regular basis is aware of this. And if you're saying 'majority' of the players 'bring it' every night, you are very wrong. Its simply not true and understandably so. Now obviously us degenerates aware of this will still bet NBA, but u can't deny that this factor exists and makes it hard to predict how things will unfold.
Take the PHX game for instance. If these two teams played 1,000 games with Spurs giving 100% effort each time, does anyone honestly think they could lose a 48 minute game even once? It's not a matter of variance here. Just effort/motivation.
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ChiLLx
SBR Hall of Famer
12-24-11
5412
#33
Originally posted by JOHON8
The unpredictability makes it better for value bets. You can't look at this sport logically, only with a good sense of playing the odds and judging by experience. Experience includes knowing the tactics of bookmakers not just teams.
This
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Aaron McCrevice
SBR Wise Guy
02-26-13
669
#34
Originally posted by Sport_Fish
Its not just about one game...the point is, there is a huge factor of 'motivation' that affects things alot in this game and anyone who watches the NBA on a regular basis is aware of this. And if you're saying 'majority' of the players 'bring it' every night, you are very wrong. Its simply not true and understandably so. Now obviously us degenerates aware of this will still bet NBA, but u can't deny that this factor exists and makes it hard to predict how things will unfold.
Take the PHX game for instance. If these two teams played 1,000 games with Spurs giving 100% effort each time, does anyone honestly think they could lose a 48 minute game even once? It's not a matter of variance here. Just effort/motivation.
Effort/motivation/attitude is part of variance, that's just part of life.
According to your argument, nobody should've missed a shot in the 3-pt shootout all-star weekend.
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hawley
SBR Posting Legend
05-10-10
14270
#35
I guess at the end of the day you have to keep in mind everyone in the league is incredibly talented and any team can win on their day, even if they are 16 point dogs.