Leans for Thursday 12/11/08

[cocknocker]

Sloanie, you're good. Good luck to you tonight on your card.

I caught the total line at Greek still at 191 for the Mavs/Bobcats so I added a point and made my line 192 to get onto the key number, which is always preferrable for me on any wager.

cnleaf,

Boozer's out but he may return Saturday against the Magic, which would be ideal, because he will have to have his minutes mixed in and he will be rusty. Deron Williams timing is already rusty and his shot is off severely. The Magic are already 4-0-1 ats against the Jazz in Salt Lake, so I am wlecoming his return to the lineup Saturday.

[nick2060]

Somewhat of an omen i came across when lookin at past games, In the Utah/Portland matchups, The home team has won 9 out of 10, with the single road win being in Utah EXACTLY 1 year ago to the day

[chipper8888]

nice call last night big fella....like the bears tonight also, think im have a night off from the hardwood but good luck to all

[cnleaf]

it is adjusted to DAL -12.5

[cocknocker]

tdotcotez,

Welcome aboard! Living in Costa Rica must be nice. The American dollar goes a long way out there. Hope you got a nice beach side apartment with some of those earnings. I am planning a trip to Aruba in May. I may not want to come back either! Covers is drained almost completely now...

leopoldim86,

Good question. Yes, when buying points, you might as well make all of your wagers even risk amounts, to keep your units clean.

cnleaf,

The game will come back and Dallas will be an even more prohibitive favorite.

[cocknocker]

pronk,

I have seen some crazy movement of Wisconsin Green Bay against Idaho State. The line went from -10.5 to -12 in less than an hour. I know for a fact that Idaho State pulled off a close 60-58 loss to Wisconsin on the road, but one look at their road record indicates that they stink. After the ats shocker against the badgers, this looks as if they are about to have a huge let down. i think that i am going to try this game and play the favorite here. Let me know what you think on that one....

[africanroller]

Played that game myself CK at -10.5. I like Milwaukee/GB to cover tonight also. Both of those teams have been money this year.

I like Troy,Nova, Wisc/GB,Mil/GB

[jjusttiff]

Cocknocker , thankyou for you tips on GS yesturday...went the unders and received a decent pay ...(no more than an ordinary weeks wage, but enough for me) Im not a huge punter but when i see value .. why not! The kids will be happy happy with the extra presents this year. Thanks again.

You should be getting payed for what you do... hope everyone appreciates your piks as well as i do!

[Marts727]

HI CK,

Followed your plays today
Was+10
por/uta over
dal/cha under
bears -3

Would you happen to know the computation for parlay bets, 3 - 9 teams pay out cause i bet $10 last night on a 8 team parlay, 7 teams won and the other was a tie. I only got $200 in return.

Thanks

[OuchaDirkFan41]

So glad to see your (CK) on the Bears and Jazz over. Your picks are immaculate son, your the only cat I know who wins with G-state.

[cocknocker]

jjusttiff,

I do get paid for what I do, only I prefer to get paid by the sportsbooks instead of by the average bettor for my picks. Society on the whole has enough problems right now. I am here to help the college kids, and the guessers. Members of the CK Mafia are familiar with this true story.

Two years ago I got a heartbreaking email from a kid who was beaten to a pulp by the thug collectors for a local book on campus at the University of Illinois. I took him under my wing, and tutored him on wagering for awhile and at the same time he tailed my picks. I told him if he could match what I did with wagers that he could afford, and show me evidentiary proof that he had done so, then I would give him half of what he came up with under one condition; that he start his own book at the school.

Long story short he came up with $4500.00 starting with a bankroll of $600.00. He showed me his bamk deposit slip and I promptly I sent him $2250.00. With that he started his own on campus book taking max bets of only $100.00. By the end of the school year he had roughly $40,000.00 tailing my picks keeping them to himself and collecting vigorish and loss money. He bought himself a used Corvette and sent me pictures of himself and his new hot girlfriend. He went from a punk to a big shot. He is still rocking his book to this day although he is in his final year at school. He is thinking of moving off shore and going online when he gets out.

Another time that comes to mind is when a friend a neighbor and handy man was short on cash and asked me to help him out. Originally it was to help him get money to take care of bills. His name is Country. We call him that because he is a native of Arkansas. I helped him turn $200.00 into a cool $3000.00 in front of an Coversexperts audience from as diverse places as where you are, Australia to South Africa. And at the same time it was a tutorial for all on money management as well as I indicated how much he was to put up; his wins/losses and earnings. No one had ever seen anything like that before. But all were appreciative of the lessons. And I appreciate the fellowship that spawned from that experience as that is when the CK Mafia came into being. They lifted up my spirits when I was thrown unfairly in the rehab area by boycotting the normal threads and instead posting their plays and conversation in the Covers' bastille. We're the best kept secret of internet wagering. An underground group, if you will. Thank you for your positive feed back. i lookk forward to serving you and the 4,000 or so other visitors to my threads every day.

[cocknocker]

Marts727,

Good job. But my advice is now that you have $200.00, put only $10.00 again on those games parlayed, and now put $30.00 on each (with point buy vigorish included). Let's get that bankroll up with the majority of your wagers on straights and leave some in the kettle to build up off of.

[innovator]

CK you're a good dude..much respect..God bless

[Sloanie29]

CK,

just for my education, earlier you said you bought a point on the mavs/bobcats to get to 192 (the key number). wouldnt buying a 1/2 pt to get to 191.5 have been enough. if total hits 191 you win with either 191.5 or 192. didnt you say to try and stay off of key numbers in basketball? thx again for sharing all your knowledge

[Marts727]

Marts727,

Good job. But my advice is now that you have $200.00, put only $10.00 again on those games parlayed, and now put $30.00 on each (with point buy vigorish included). Let's get that bankroll up with the majority of your wagers on straights and leave some in the kettle to build up off of.

Okay thanks CK

[IrwinFletcher]

jjusttiff,

I do get paid for what I do, only I prefer to get paid by the sportsbooks instead of by the average bettor for my picks. Society on the whole has enough problems right now. I am here to help the college kids, and the guessers. Members of the CK Mafia are familiar with this true story.

Two years ago I got a heartbreaking email from a kid who was beaten to a pulp by the thug collectors for a local book on campus at the University of Illinois. I took him under my wing, and tutored him on wagering for awhile and at the same time he tailed my picks. I told him if he could match what I did with wagers that he could afford, and show me evidentiary proof that he had done so, then I would give him half of what he came up with under one condition; that he start his own book at the school.

Long story short he came up with $4500.00 starting with a bankroll of $600.00. He showed me his bamk deposit slip and I promptly I sent him $2250.00. With that he started his own on campus book taking max bets of only $100.00. By the end of the school year he had roughly $40,000.00 tailing my picks keeping them to himself and collecting vigorish and loss money. He bought himself a used Corvette and sent me pictures of himself and his new hot girlfriend. He went from a punk to a big shot. He is still rocking his book to this day although he is in his final year at school. He is thinking of moving off shore and going online when he gets out.

Another time that comes to mind is when a friend a neighbor and handy man was short on cash and asked me to help him out. Originally it was to help him get money to take care of bills. His name is Country. We call him that because he is a native of Arkansas. I helped him turn $200.00 into a cool $3000.00 in front of an Coversexperts audience from as diverse places as where you are, Australia to South Africa. And at the same time it was a tutorial for all on money management as well as I indicated how much he was to put up; his wins/losses and earnings. No one had ever seen anything like that before. But all were appreciative of the lessons. And I appreciate the fellowship that spawned from that experience as that is when the CK Mafia came into being. They lifted up my spirits when I was thrown unfairly in the rehab area by boycotting the normal threads and instead posting their plays and conversation in the Covers' bastille. We're the best kept secret of internet wagering. An underground group, if you will. Thank you for your positive feed back. i lookk forward to serving you and the 4,000 or so other visitors to my threads every day.

[djpremier36]

CK is the man, the myth....the legend!

[nick2060]

Damn i knew you seemed like a nice guy but that just about seals the deal, good to see good people doin good things to help out other people, especially good to hear stories like that around the holiday season, good luck tonight man

[ManBearPig]

CK,
I gotta add to what everyone else is saying and give you thanks for being so patient with all us noobs. They say you give a man a fish he eats for a day...teach him how and he eats for life. That's exactly what you're doing here. Except you're feeding while your teaching which is a win win for all those who pay attention. I only have started getting into this literally last week and so I have so much to learn on betting sports. I could only be so forutnate to come across someone as knowledgabel as yourself who is willing to help those who ask. Although I live in Nevada this is the last thing I ever considered to do when it came to gambling. I generally prefer to play BJ instead. I've decided to explore another avenue as Bj ahsn't been very kind to me these days so I wanted a break.

Anyways...I'll get get off my knees now and get to the point. I don't usually post my plays but I wanted to put them out there and see what you thought. This week has been crappy and it's mostly my fault for being amateurish in my bets and second guessing myself too much. So today I've got these pegged and I'm unsure of which direction to go. Lines are moving and I only want to make one trip to the casino if at all possible so timing is critical.

Wisc/Mil -14 (buy to 13.5?)
Nova -11
K St. -6.5 (*)
Wisc/GB -12.5 (already jumped 2pts in last 2hrs)

Bears -3 (*)
Wiz +10.5 (wait to go higher) (*)

POR/UT over 194.5 (too high??)

It's basically pick 2 or 3 and try to maximize my play. Some of these lines concern me and I know you mentioned yesterday about how to maximize your chances based on the spread which I'm still trying to grasp. The ones marked with a * are the ones I'm thinking of playing. I always manage to pick the the losing games when I pick my leans so I'm a little hesitant to lock anything in.

I'm not necessarily looking for an answer of what to pick but maybe how I should go about narrowing down my picks...anything would help actually, just trying to learn. BTW these are all $20 plays because thats the amount I've been playing. Thanks in advance.

[africanroller]

Ok start laughing!!!! NHL PLAY

Islanders/Penguins over

Islanders over comes in 70% of the time. 19 out of 27 games. Islanders and Penguins have gone over 5 out of their last 7. And now the topper Islanders have gone over in their last 10 games!!!!

[wangichu]

according to that ML chart CK dropped, that WIZ/BOS ML is pretty skewed

10.5 SHOULD be -475/+350
my book is showing -700/+500 with 95% money on boston ML for whatever reason... looks like i'm adding the ml to my play

[wangichu]

adding Portland +1 1st half... that line is too low for what it normally is in utah, if portland was going to lose they would be catching 4 or 5+, but that line jumped and then went back down despite all the money on the jazz. Well I'd still be more comfortable trusting portland's strength, and that's playing as 1st half dogs, coming off a loss against a team that they beat 3 times last year. also, that first half line is less than half of the game line which normally indicates that the books are trying to encourage first half money on the jazz because portland should take it. So, being a good little capper, i will do the opposite of what the books want me to do and take

POR +1 1st half

so... plays shaping up as thus...

WIZ +12/ML
CHAR/DAL under 192
POR/UTAH over 193 (played last night)
POR +1 1st half

NBA

CHI -2.5 (buy off that key number as per CK's Rx)

only play i'm actually biting form CK tonight is the over on the jazz/blazers, we just happen to be on the same page everywhere else.

[spal2811]

Thank you CK

CK, been following your picks for about a week along with some I have had and have doubled my bankroll. With your tips and research methods, my winning percentage has been ridiculous, check out the spreadsheet. Thank you for all you do and keep it coming!

[tdotcotez]

***MONEY MANAGEMENT***

most important part of sports gambling. Always remember its a marathon, not a sprint. Unfortunately, even though I know these rules, I go against them occasionally.

Goodluck to all tonight, hopefully we all win, I bought BOS down to 8, a 9-10pt win would be ok by me

DA BEARS!!! I better not be disappointed with em tonight, I took minnesota against the bears last MNF and came out big but I'm hopin these sons of bitches show up to play some ball today.

[2qwik]

Damn i knew you seemed like a nice guy but that just about seals the deal, good to see good people doin good things to help out other people, especially good to hear stories like that around the holiday season, good luck tonight man

I already thought highly of you CK but I am with nick2060 about this sealing the deal. I would follow you on covers for a time before you got kicked off, and me losing crazy amounts of bets since you were gone, and now see doing your thing here and helping many others out. I dont play big since I am no position with my debt but your insight on picks has helped the wound out. Much appreciated.

[tdotcotez]

Its snowing in NORLEANS so I dunno how much the weather is gonna play a factor. I still look for them to come out on top though and I have faith they will prevail.


The bears that is.

[Nellyinctown]

CK, You have some great advice. Keep up the good work.

[spal2811]

WOW

CK that is an incredible story, you are the man!!!!! as a stuggling college kid myself and generally new to the books it is good to me able to learn from you and watch my play get better....


KEEP THE MONEY COMIN BABY!!!!!!!

gonna take wash when the line goes up to 11, maybe buy a point to 12

considering the mavs/charrlotte under.....at 193 now....we will see

[wangichu]

Its snowing in NORLEANS so I dunno how much the weather is gonna play a factor. I still look for them to come out on top though and I have faith they will prevail.


The bears that is.

weather in NO has no bearing on anything... they play in a dome, so weather is never a factor at their home games. This is more so about the fact that they will be playing on grass instead of turf and that is something that has been a tough adjustment for them. Also, about the weather, they may live in an area that has snow from time to time, but the bears regularly PLAY IN SNOW, something the saints only ever do if they are visitors in an environment like this. They just aren't normally prepared for stuff like this and they just don't get it done on the road against teams that are not straight sub par. They beat san diego and KC on the road (SD was technically a home game, but not really) but have lost to every other non-loser squad on the road... that being said, who knows maybe you'll get lucky.

[Sloanie29]

Mavs/Bobcats O/U now 191!!!!!! glad i got in earlier!

thanks C/K!

[vassman86]

Great story CK. I'm new to betting, and I don't know what it is about betting on the NBA that is so alluring, but it's the only sport I bet on. Ever since you've started posting your daily leans, I've been logging onto SBR exclusively to read every post in your thread. There's just so much insight and tips to be learned. Your knowledge and experience about betting the NBA is golden; I pay close attention to your methodologies and hope to be as good as you one day.

[tdotcotez]

I'm on the bears with you, I do agree that the change in the temp and the turf/grass should work in our favor.... I'm just sayin I dont think theyre complete strangers to cold weather.... I think its supposed to be just barely below freezing by the time of kickoff, still, I like the bears tonight a lot even though they are both hungry right now.

[spal2811]

Horents celts line

the hornets celtics line for tomorrow just came out hornets +7

im thinking of doing a 2 team teaser

Wiz +15.5 tonight
Hornets +12 tomorrow

Hornets will be rested, and i think the celtics will be in a tough one tonight

What do you think

[cocknocker]

Wang,

Me too! i am taking Portland 1st half as well.

ManBearPig

Of your selection I like

Wisconsin Green Bay-12.5 take it back to 11.5 with a point buy if you can

Bears-2.5 (get below that key number if you can)

Utah/Portland over 194 (It's still good, get a hook off if you can)

Wizards +10.5, yes wait it will go up more.

OOPS! I had to come back and clarify that I like Dallas under 192 also. The public is pounding the over and it went down to 191.

Get rid of Nova and K State take the cake and hit it harder

Good luck in the casino! Play the second roll take the 6 8 and all the hards every time baby! The field every once in a while

[cocknocker]

spal 2811,

Play them that way and play them straight too. New Orleans gets to face Boston on a back to back, and they are coming into town off a blowout after a long rest period prior to that. Gotta roll Hornets hoping that Antonio Daniels doesn't play in that game. That's one of my plays for tomorrow too just so you'll know. That line is gonna go down some though, so yeah, play that teaser tonight and also play Washington straight.