NBA Math excel sheet (beta)

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  • mundane
    SBR MVP
    • 02-25-08
    • 3592

    #1
    NBA Math excel sheet (beta)
    for reference, check this thread... http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...-nba-math.html

    here's an excel worksheet i made for this so called "70% system". im calling it 'beta' right now as im sure i missed out on something. feel free to comment.

    lemme know... tweak it as u please! i could have missed something. it's just a draft but i figure i'd share it now.

    btw.. the only feasible play right now is PISTONS. i think the other ones dont qualify coz of injuries (houston) and back to back (magic). suns, hmm im not sure how to quantify injuries so ill leave that up to u but even if it qualifies for calculation, it's a NO PLAY anyways 4.12 only. Knicks @ Bulls, system got fubar bcoz they have an identical record! LOL!

    try to plug in the numbers urself. this worksheet only needs 6 numbers from u then it will tell u if it's a play, no play or play the other team ats. u'll have to research injuries, back to back and read the notes and filters urself if the games ur looking at is qualified for this system.

    best of luck fellas! let's beat the books!

    disclaimer... this could be wrong as i dont really have a firm grasp of this 'system'. i just based it upon my noobie comprehension.
    Attached Files
  • Devon
    SBR Sharp
    • 11-25-08
    • 371

    #2
    Great work, mundane!

    Defintely keen to have a look at it with some numbers and see how it goes! Cheers.
    Comment
    • mundane
      SBR MVP
      • 02-25-08
      • 3592

      #3
      here's a screenshot for those who are curious...

      like i said, leave a comment here. ill tweak it some more if need be.

      Comment
      • mundane
        SBR MVP
        • 02-25-08
        • 3592

        #4
        oh wait.. pistons is only 19 games in.. i guess it's not officially a play for this system. proceed with caution!
        Comment
        • Fiasco
          SBR MVP
          • 11-02-08
          • 2406

          #5
          good stuff
          Comment
          • nzwarrior
            SBR High Roller
            • 12-06-08
            • 162

            #6
            I downloaded it but it had no formula is that link the one with the actual spreadsheet that you use?
            Comment
            • jtnguyen79
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 09-26-07
              • 730

              #7
              good stuff i'll probably try it on a night when there's less games

              keep it up
              Comment
              • nzwarrior
                SBR High Roller
                • 12-06-08
                • 162

                #8
                Is MIL +6.5 a play going by the system? I still dont quite understand it.. Not too sure if my maths is right on this one. The 6.5 seems to low to play with the bucks inconsistancys but i wanna try the system out?
                Thanks
                Comment
                • Boner_18
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 08-24-08
                  • 8301

                  #9
                  the link is busted... I made my own to test it out, but its not as purrrty as yours, can you repost?
                  Comment
                  • The_Kid
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 02-09-08
                    • 5049

                    #10
                    Thanks for putting this information in excel, mundane. This will be interesting if you keep this thread up the rest of the NBA season.
                    Comment
                    • Devon
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 11-25-08
                      • 371

                      #11
                      Originally posted by nzwarrior
                      Is MIL +6.5 a play going by the system? I still dont quite understand it.. Not too sure if my maths is right on this one. The 6.5 seems to low to play with the bucks inconsistancys but i wanna try the system out?
                      Thanks
                      No, it not.

                      Play needs to be above 10 (or equal to?) for a play to happen.
                      Comment
                      • ManBearPig
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-04-08
                        • 2473

                        #12
                        So according to this system the only play tonight is the pistons. The one bet I wasnt about to make. Well I hope for at least tonight this system is a little inaccurate so that I can win some straight cash.
                        Comment
                        • nzwarrior
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 12-06-08
                          • 162

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Devon
                          No, it not.

                          Play needs to be above 10 (or equal to?) for a play to happen.
                          I thought if its equals -1 or less you play the fade?
                          I probably worked it out wrong anyway though like i said im still not sure how it works...
                          Comment
                          • mundane
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-25-08
                            • 3592

                            #14
                            pistons is not even a play. 19 games only for them coming in on this game. SO STILL NO OFFICIAL PLAY accrdng to the 'system rules'.
                            Comment
                            • Boner_18
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 08-24-08
                              • 8301

                              #15
                              Great, dloaded it! Thanks for making such a snappy version Mundane, love the "SBR" tab.
                              Comment
                              • Boner_18
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 08-24-08
                                • 8301

                                #16
                                Aren't the Blazers and Bulls both plays?
                                Comment
                                • Devon
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 11-25-08
                                  • 371

                                  #17
                                  Hmm... doesn't this line

                                  If the number is less than or equal to -1, then you play the other team ATS.
                                  get canceled out by this?

                                  The final number must be 10 or greater for a PLAY!
                                  Becuase no matter which team you put first and you get a "negative" number, if you switch the teams around (home first on the card and vice versa), the number is the same but a positive number and pending on the negative number it may be LESS than or MORE than 10.... which is resolute for the second quoted line.

                                  Maybe it should read...

                                  The final number must be 10 or greater for a PLAY! OR if the play is -10 or lower, then play the opposing team ATS
                                  Thoughts people?
                                  Comment
                                  • mundane
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-25-08
                                    • 3592

                                    #18
                                    identical records for both teams - knicks and bulls.u dont have a lesser number to subtract the other ones number.

                                    magic has a better winning % than blazers so i guess that's the selected team. BACK TO BACK for them though, so a no-play accdng to the rulez. but if u plug in the numbers, it says play the opposing team ats (play blazers). but it's not an 'offical' play.

                                    none of the games qualify actually.
                                    Comment
                                    • mundane
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-25-08
                                      • 3592

                                      #19
                                      devon, from what i could understand from that initial post by the person who brought this up, 0-9.9 is not a play. u dont play that game. basically a pass. he mentioned this system only gets about 100 games. the filters alone takes half of the nba games out (back to back, injuries, 20 games in the season, no 3 games after all star, starters shld be at least back in a week, missing starter = all these equates to NO PLAY on a game)

                                      and i believe u always, start with the better team, winning percentage-wise. so that way, ull get a positive number to work with.
                                      Comment
                                      • nzwarrior
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 12-06-08
                                        • 162

                                        #20
                                        Im confused... so if its a negative 1 or more its a PLAY for the dog? -0.99-9.99 a NO PLAY? And 10+ a PLAY for the fav? Is that correct?
                                        Comment
                                        • Devon
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 11-25-08
                                          • 371

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by nzwarrior
                                          Im confused... so if its a negative 1 or more its a PLAY for the dog? -0.99-9.99 a NO PLAY? And 10+ a PLAY for the fav? Is that correct?
                                          Pretty much.

                                          10 or greater = Play "selected team"
                                          0-9.99 = NO PLAY
                                          -1 or less = Play other team

                                          Selected team = the team with the higher winning percentage, you put them in the equation first, see the print screen card mundane posted earlier.
                                          Comment
                                          • nzwarrior
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 12-06-08
                                            • 162

                                            #22
                                            I worked that out wrong anyway i subtracted 3 from phoenix when i was supposed to add 3... For home advantage
                                            Comment
                                            • Devon
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 11-25-08
                                              • 371

                                              #23
                                              Yeah, it's a no play.

                                              Off the system topic.. Bucks do look great there, considering how the Suns have been playing this year and Bucks have been covering machines too. They would do decent with Bogut and with Redd back, more minutes - this should be close.
                                              Comment
                                              • nzwarrior
                                                SBR High Roller
                                                • 12-06-08
                                                • 162

                                                #24
                                                Yeah I like the Bucks here but I’d rather 8.5, ML is tempting though but I’m pretty sure the Suns will do enough to win...
                                                Comment
                                                • turboj
                                                  SBR Hustler
                                                  • 11-12-08
                                                  • 83

                                                  #25
                                                  Hey, Mundane. Do You Have A Spreadsheet On Today Game? Thanks
                                                  Comment
                                                  • strybie
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 12-08-08
                                                    • 588

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by turboj
                                                    Hey, Mundane. Do You Have A Spreadsheet On Today Game? Thanks
                                                    according to me you can use the same spreadsheat in game ?

                                                    Pacers@toronto : on both teams I get NO play
                                                    NYknicks@NJnets : on both teams I get NO play
                                                    MEM@OKC : NO play
                                                    Cha@NO : NO Play (play NO when spread is -8.5 of lower)
                                                    ATL@SA : NO play
                                                    MIN@DEN : PLay Denver -12 (and still OK till spread 16)

                                                    For the other games I don't see the lines yet

                                                    From now on the system should work because most teams played 20 games.

                                                    Let's see what de record will be for this system. 70% should be great
                                                    Comment
                                                    • SexyMit
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 10-12-06
                                                      • 6139

                                                      #27
                                                      I couldn't figure out how to use the system... I tried imputting the data in there. How does the calculations work? Never used anything like that before but if it proven to make money over the yrs would be willing to give it a try.
                                                      If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

                                                      I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • strybie
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 12-08-08
                                                        • 588

                                                        #28
                                                        Did the calculation for

                                                        Cle @ 76ers : It says PLAY CLE-6.5

                                                        So only two which have a result above 10 are Denver and CLE

                                                        I will play them both single and double; Hope it works

                                                        CLE - 6,5
                                                        DEN - 12

                                                        Other games are all : No play on the selected team.

                                                        Good luck to all
                                                        Comment
                                                        • mundane
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 02-25-08
                                                          • 3592

                                                          #29
                                                          i think every game is a no play! (can somebody confirm?) devon?

                                                          because of back to backs and and the spread being 10 and higher. (i juzz woke up. i could be wrong.)
                                                          Comment
                                                          • AdaBarber
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 12-05-08
                                                            • 4424

                                                            #30
                                                            If this is the link to that yousendit, it has expired. It won't download.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Ineed$$
                                                              SBR Hustler
                                                              • 12-07-08
                                                              • 71

                                                              #31
                                                              Yeah, upload again, pls!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Devon
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 11-25-08
                                                                • 371

                                                                #32
                                                                15/12 -

                                                                There is definitely one play, possibly a second. The definite play is Atlanta Hawks, while the possible play is Boston - if you can get Boston at -8.5 or lower than the play works, however, the line has moved to -9.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Devon
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 11-25-08
                                                                  • 371

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Having a second look at that Atlanta is not a play.

                                                                  The reason being Don't play if one or more starters are OUT. Allow one week for return starters.

                                                                  The Bobcats have only just recently accquired two players who will start in their team via trade, we have to lay off them for at least a week according to the above rule. I know there's no rule as such on trades and etc but Bobcats games can't be touched for at for at least a week from one of two dates:

                                                                  Wed 10 December - when Bobcats did the trade with the Suns; or
                                                                  Sat 13 December - when Bell & Diaw started for the first time with the Bobcats.


                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • nick2060
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 10-28-08
                                                                    • 1051

                                                                    #34
                                                                    They don't say anything about trades, so i really don't think that rule applies. Also because its not like there regaining team chemistry, the chemistry has to be built from scratch essentially. Eitherway regardless as to whether you guys decide it should be a play im bettin on it so good luck everybody
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Devon
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 11-25-08
                                                                      • 371

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Yeah, fair enough Nick.

                                                                      Just floating out ideas, thinking out aloud... more on the fact that they would have had to readjust team chemistry with them but since there is no rule about trades, should be a play as you mentioned.
                                                                      Comment
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