Leans for Monday 12/8/08

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    Leans for Monday 12/8/08
    The Clippers are one of the weakest teams in the NBA. Orlando is one of the best road teams in the NBA. There are several issues wrong with the Clippers, and more than i can count, so i won't go into a long drawn out story about it, so that i can save the readers from time wasted taking this wager before the line goes up. I am taking it tonight at -4, buying off the hook. As far as the total is concerned, the over under lines have averaged 194.5 in the last 5 games in Los Angeles, with the over cashing the ticket 3-1 in the last 4. Dwight Howard is a diffferent player now than he was before and most of the Clippers 3-1-1 ats record was compiled prior to the supporting cast of the current magic squad was assembled. Here's why:

    The Magic are 3-0 ats in the last 3 games against the Clippers overall. I would not play the 1st half junkies, don't waste your time on the Magic in the 1st half as the teams usually average 54 to 51.7 in favor of the Clippers in the 1st half. So don't say you weren't warned. If anything, it would make sense to take the home dog in the 1st half if you have to do anything at all. But the overall depth of the Magic will dominate the second frame. The Clippers have no answer for Dwight Howard in the middle and he can basically call his own shot. Look for highlights on ESPN.

    Orlando-4 (buying off the hook)

    The Warriors have lost more games in a row than i can count, and to the rescue comes the Thunder with all of their problems. I think that the linemaker knows that this is a duck and will try to hold back bettors from laying the wood on the Warriors. But I am in favor of the Warriors getting off to a good start against the Thunder. The Warriors are 5-0 ats in the last 5 against the Thunder, and believe me, the linemaker knows that too. The average spread has been 3 when the Thunder were favored, and 6 when the Warriors were favored. Trust that the Warriors will be favored in this game. I look for a wire to wire job in this one, and a spread of Golden State-6.5 to -7.

    The average score at the half of games between these two clubs is 57.5 to 51.8 in favor of the Warriors. I am not interested in laying some ignorant number in the name of chasing the Warriors until they win one. I will take my chances with them in the 1st half only if the spread is 4.5 or less. I am still undecided on the game spread though. it may be too big for my liking.

    Warriors-4.5 or less 1st half


    The Miami Heat are giving Charlotte 7.5 points? Oh my. That line is well inflated due to the recent success of the Heat. But quiet as kept, the Bobcats have been stuffing the pockets of their backers (one of which lives in my own home) lately too. After getting blown out against Cleveland in their last game I look for them to bounce back against the Heaters, who have won-you guessed it, three games in a row which makes them an automatic fade anyway in my book. Why not fade them when the Bobcats are 5-2 ats against them overall in the last 7 contests, and 6-1 straight up overall. Yet they are catching 7.5 points in this game. Whatever. I will take it to +8 and pound it.

    Charlotte+8 (with a hook on top)



    In NFL

    The Panthers are playing with revenge in this game, and they are 5-2 ats at home against the Bucs anyway, so I'll ride that revenge theory and take them to get the cover.

    Carolina Panthers -3
  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #2
    Can anyone believe the way the Bucks played balls to the wall down the stretch last night t oget the backdoor cover against the Mighty Lakers? Wow, Mafia! That was some kind of come back to cash the ticket!
    Comment
    • The_Kid
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 02-09-08
      • 5049

      #3
      Originally posted by cocknocker
      Can anyone believe the way the Bucks played balls to the wall down the stretch last night t oget the backdoor cover against the Mighty Lakers? Wow, Mafia! That was some kind of come back to cash the ticket!
      Haha, had to hurt Laker backers but I'll gladly take it!
      Comment
      • johnnymapalo
        SBR MVP
        • 06-14-08
        • 2999

        #4
        Yea,, I'm on Charlotte +9 today...
        Comment
        • dwyanewade03
          SBR Hustler
          • 08-15-08
          • 61

          #5
          agree with the Bobcats pick, they match up so well vs the Heat.. Expect Richardson to have a field day..
          Comment
          • MrMonkey
            SBR MVP
            • 11-09-08
            • 2278

            #6
            Like Panthers!

            Hope Carolina comes through. Wish I knew more about the NBA. Too crazy for my blood. Never thought much about 1h @ 2H wagering? Like your analysis on Warrior & Bobcat games. Appreciate your insight on what you like in the future.

            MrMonkey
            Comment
            • natelli1
              SBR Sharp
              • 12-01-08
              • 251

              #7
              i agree with your nba picks and how you describe each matchup .. and i do love the magic - 4.5, yes we all know that the clippers suck, but they do have talent on that team and it has to come together sooner or later, or does it?
              ..
              what do you think about rashard lewis guarding zach randolph, who is a great "around-the-basket" player especially on the offensive boards, but then again he does not play ANY defense and rashard could have a field day

              just looking for some reassurance about how bad the clippers are for me to be able to bet confidently .. maybe someone can help
              Comment
              • andkon
                SBR Hustler
                • 10-23-08
                • 64

                #8
                The Clippers suck. There wins this year came against the T'wolves on Saturday (another terrible team), OKC (the worst team in the league), the Mavs (back when the Mavs were on a terrible 4-5 game losing streak). They did manage to beat the Heat by one point a couple weeks ago.

                They played back to back on Friday Saturday in Memphis and Minnesota, so they'll be playing their third game in 4 days, and fifth in the past 7 days. They're 1-4 in that stretch.

                I see the Magic covering this spread pretty easily in LA tomorrow.
                Comment
                • MAKAVELI 96
                  SBR Hustler
                  • 10-23-08
                  • 98

                  #9
                  i'm on orlando and charlotte as well ... i never bet on games involving GS because they are the most unpredictable team in the NBA along with maybe NJ ...
                  Comment
                  • MVFC182
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 12-08-08
                    • 112

                    #10
                    How do you see the Rockets game cocknocker?
                    Comment
                    • wangichu
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 11-07-08
                      • 946

                      #11
                      Originally posted by cocknocker
                      Can anyone believe the way the Bucks played balls to the wall down the stretch last night t oget the backdoor cover against the Mighty Lakers? Wow, Mafia! That was some kind of come back to cash the ticket!
                      I am hung over as heck and this Sunday still kicked a$$. I got all drunk on saturday night and got a little aggressive with that Eagles ML ... CK, much respect for the lessons about low MLs like that. I was just starting to believe that my boys could cut down the g-men when I saw that +230 with a +7 and was just like "holy crap, this is the kinda stuff that CK preaches about," well 5 crown on the rocks later i was at the computer putting big money on my team like a reckless homer. Paid off though and I have your teachings to thank, man, so good lookin'.

                      love the bobcats. they haven't been quite as good at home for me this year, but the new type of defensive minded baketball (via larry brown) which is keeping them in games on the road that they used to get blown out in. They have responded by becoming road warriors covering in 4 of 6 road games and only losing the last one by boarderline fluke on 1 point. After being a great road fade last year, the books are just giving them a few too many points for a talented defensive team. I could say more, but CK pretty much said it.

                      Bobs +8

                      still marinating on the rest, but NFL wise, i'm leaning panthers and due to their tendency to play weird scoring games, and be very capper unfriendly (at least to me), I'm leaning ML. I could see them screwing cappers over by winning by a point or two on a last second TD (steve smith craziness) to pull off a 14-13 victory. I can't see them losing, but i'm a little nervous about their obnoxious ways of stressing out bettors.
                      Comment
                      • CTS5
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 12-02-08
                        • 223

                        #12
                        Orlando at -4 jumped out at me, but after doing some research I think the clippers will get the job done. Everyone will take Orlando raising line to about -5 or even 6 possibly. And if the line doesnt go up, that means it is a solid line and clippers should compete. Of course, Dwight Howard will do his thing, but everyone else is very well matched up. Baron Davis will own nelson, and camby and al thornton should match up well with lewis and turkoglu. Also, Zach Randolph is meshing better with the team and will contribute big this game, similar to his last game. However, I still think that if Orlando runs their offense through Howard, he will get his points, and after drawing some double teams, his teammates will get open shots and take the game. I'm still leaning on the +5 Clippers at Home. Does anyone have anything to shift me to take the Magic?
                        Comment
                        • isiah121
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 12-04-08
                          • 313

                          #13
                          CK bro, what you do think of Bobcats +8.5 Magic -3.5?
                          Comment
                          • whoatommy
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 09-29-08
                            • 863

                            #14
                            Will Miami have a hard time winning SU??

                            Charlotte: 1-2 against division, 1-5 on the road.
                            Comment
                            • NBA Hero
                              SBR MVP
                              • 12-05-08
                              • 1886

                              #15
                              davis has the opportunity to make big plays coz of the mismatch with johnson and athletism compared to nelson. hows nelson holding up? is he back 100%?

                              and thorton is the deciding factor on this game. he could be the X factor.

                              orlando's play is to easy to read, guard is to slow, passes too predictable.

                              wat u guys think
                              Comment
                              • NBA Hero
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-05-08
                                • 1886

                                #16
                                how about houston. do they own memphis? will yao have a field day? hows the comparison of mayo and rudy, are they palying horrible?
                                Comment
                                • maddogmadden86
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 11-08-08
                                  • 898

                                  #17
                                  CK whats good my homie i'm glad to see you are on the exact same plays as me cats and magic DO WOrk!
                                  Comment
                                  • Jm5900
                                    SBR Hustler
                                    • 11-07-08
                                    • 67

                                    #18
                                    I'm a heat fan and I would jump all over the bobcats +8 but gerald Wallace is almost certainly not playing tonight so I can't pull the trigger.
                                    Comment
                                    • sjay2k2k
                                      SBR Rookie
                                      • 12-07-08
                                      • 11

                                      #19
                                      Bobcats is a solid pick. Also like Orl.
                                      Comment
                                      • killersweet
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 12-02-08
                                        • 1483

                                        #20
                                        CK, I like ur GST 1st half pick. That looks solid.
                                        Comment
                                        • killersweet
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 12-02-08
                                          • 1483

                                          #21
                                          GST +3.5? Am I missing something?
                                          Comment
                                          • Snootch4183
                                            SBR Rookie
                                            • 12-08-08
                                            • 1

                                            #22
                                            Hey CK im getting GS +3.5 for the game? Pound it??
                                            Comment
                                            • cocknocker
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 11-06-08
                                              • 8001

                                              #23
                                              MVFC182

                                              At first glance, the Houston pick looks good, but after a little research, I think that the under is the way to go as it has cashed tickets when these teams play a mind boggling 17 out of the last 23 contests. As far as Houston is concerned, they usually lead 50.1 to 43.8 at the halves of these games. Houston 1st half looks better than the game spread to me. So I recommend two plays: Houston/Memphis under 193, and Houston-4 1st half.

                                              CTS5-

                                              The Clips looks like an excellent play. I am sure that the consensus will be heavily in favor of the Magic, and for all intents and purposes, the Clips will be the minorty consensus wise in maybe 90% of their games this year until their defensive play improves. I looked at the defense when I made this pick along with the out of conference thing. Defensively the Clips give up 101 points at home, and Orlando gives up 94 on the road. Zach Randolph was made expendable in New York because he is an awful defender, which in this case, makes Lewis unguardable. Camby can block shots but he is reluctant to gao away from the basket, so any 4 that can shoot jumpers just kills him. But moroever than that, you are among the CK Mafia, and everyone here is free to handicap and play what they want regardless of the outcome without ridicule. If you feel that playing the Clips is a strong lay, then by all means get over the nearest key number and play it, which in this case looks to be 6 by gametime (make your line +6.5)

                                              Isiah121

                                              Of course I like the Cats +8.5 and the Magic-3.5. You are in the middle of the key numbers on bth plays, and it looks to me as though you are becoming a much more educated wagerer with your usage of the skyhook! The hook is one of the most useful wagering tools that i know of.

                                              NBA Hero

                                              To be true any player that does not have a scoring average of over 15 points is not to be considered a factor when wagering. Nelson is on the cusp (14.5 a game), but not over. Baron Davis production has dropped playing for the Clips. At 17 points a game, he is not as dominant as in years past. At 6-3 215 lbs, he is bigger and stronger than Nelson (6-0 190) but Dunleavy won't put him on the block in order to take advanage of that size differential a-la-Don Nelson. Remember that Dunleavy is learning his team as we go along too.
                                              Comment
                                              • cocknocker
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 11-06-08
                                                • 8001

                                                #24
                                                killersweet, Snootch 4183

                                                You better pound it. I played it at Golden State+4, and I am also going to play Golden State 1st half as well. I see a wire to wire job in this one. The Warriors bad play of late has caused this line to be inflated, and hopefully Stephen Jackson will sit this one out, and give the kid Morrow a chance to play. This particular game is the start of 3 straight games i which I am going to take the Warriors. I always like to take a team when the stock is down, and it can't get any more down that it is now for the Warriors. You are about to see situational handicapping at it's best. I will take them today, Wednseday and Friday. Think of this as Warriors week, with a "Detroit Day" at the end. On Friday, the Pistons will earn back all of the money lost on them and then some.

                                                Just so you'll all know, the line started out at Thunder -4.5. Then a wise guy play was made tht immediately drove the line down to where it is now at 3. I expect that this line will continue to nose dive through the day as 94% of bettors are already on the Warriors and despite the thousand consecutive losses, the public is no fool. The linemaker made a mistake on this one and he is trying to atone for his error. I guess that in summary he thought that the public perception of the Warriors would be as bad as their recent record. Whatever.....
                                                Comment
                                                • cocknocker
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 11-06-08
                                                  • 8001

                                                  #25
                                                  Okay so my playbook is complete for the day now. Ain't no turnin' back

                                                  Charlotte+8
                                                  Orlando-4
                                                  Warriors+4
                                                  Warriors 1st half+1.5

                                                  NFL

                                                  Carolina Panthers-3
                                                  Comment
                                                  • killersweet
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-02-08
                                                    • 1483

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                    Okay so my playbook is complete for the day now. Ain't no turnin' back

                                                    Charlotte+8
                                                    Orlando-4
                                                    Warriors+4
                                                    Warriors 1st half+1.5

                                                    NFL

                                                    Carolina Panthers-3
                                                    Love the plays. I am tailing you tonight. May the winners be ours tonight
                                                    Comment
                                                    • pronk
                                                      Restricted User
                                                      • 11-22-08
                                                      • 6887

                                                      #27
                                                      Strong play tonight:

                                                      Wichita St. +2.5. Have Shockers winning by 5.

                                                      GL.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • zackattack
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 11-06-08
                                                        • 218

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                        killersweet, Snootch 4183

                                                        You better pound it. I played it at Golden State+4, and I am also going to play Golden State 1st half as well. I see a wire to wire job in this one. The Warriors bad play of late has caused this line to be inflated, and hopefully Stephen Jackson will sit this one out, and give the kid Morrow a chance to play. This particular game is the start of 3 straight games i which I am going to take the Warriors. I always like to take a team when the stock is down, and it can't get any more down that it is now for the Warriors. You are about to see situational handicapping at it's best. I will take them today, Wednseday and Friday. Think of this as Warriors week, with a "Detroit Day" at the end. On Friday, the Pistons will earn back all of the money lost on them and then some.
                                                        GREAT STUFF CK.......i did some research today and came up with the following
                                                        miami has playes opponents with an overall sos of .424 and has played opponents in last 10 with sos of .400 and has only gone 6-4 last 10......meanwhile charl has played teams with a sos of .527 season and .455 last 10 and has gone 4-6 last 10
                                                        when you factor in offensive and def efficiency miami should only be favored by 5......so bobocats are the play
                                                        using the previous factors these lines come up as well for tonight
                                                        warriors should be -3
                                                        rockets should be -12
                                                        orlando should be -13
                                                        so with that my plays are
                                                        bobcats
                                                        warriors
                                                        rockets
                                                        magic
                                                        gl to all and keep the insights coming
                                                        Just so you'll all know, the line started out at Thunder -4.5. Then a wise guy play was made tht immediately drove the line down to where it is now at 3. I expect that this line will continue to nose dive through the day as 94% of bettors are already on the Warriors and despite the thousand consecutive losses, the public is no fool. The linemaker made a mistake on this one and he is trying to atone for his error. I guess that in summary he thought that the public perception of the Warriors would be as bad as their recent record. Whatever.....
                                                        GREAT STUFF CK.......i did some research today and came up with the following
                                                        miami has playes opponents with an overall sos of .424 and has played opponents in last 10 with sos of .400 and has only gone 6-4 last 10......meanwhile charl has played teams with a sos of .527 season and .455 last 10 and has gone 4-6 last 10
                                                        when you factor in offensive and def efficiency miami should only be favored by 5......so bobocats are the play
                                                        using the previous factors these lines come up as well for tonight
                                                        warriors should be -3
                                                        rockets should be -12
                                                        orlando should be -13
                                                        so with that my plays are
                                                        bobcats
                                                        warriors
                                                        rockets
                                                        magic
                                                        gl to all and keep the insights coming
                                                        Comment
                                                        • africanroller
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 11-30-08
                                                          • 936

                                                          #29
                                                          My book has Warriors +1 now and Orlando I locked at -4.5 and has gone to -3.5
                                                          Comment
                                                          • africanroller
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 11-30-08
                                                            • 936

                                                            #30
                                                            Im with you tonight on that Wichita St play Pronk. That was my 1 College play of the day. I didnt go with you with Michigan st yesterday which was a mistake but after getting burnt on them to Maryland I stayed away. I still ended up getting poked by Fairfield in the last 4 minutes thou.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Broncos9798
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 12-02-08
                                                              • 236

                                                              #31
                                                              Clippers Line Now +3.5

                                                              Hey CK an Others,

                                                              CK I really like your pick of Orlando on the road against the Clippers. However do we now why the line keeps shrinking. It is at Clippers +3.5. I dont want to bet and hear at the start of the game that Dwight is injured or something crazy. Any ideas?

                                                              Broncos
                                                              PS. Jay Cutler makes me want to scream also....KC should have been easy money without that pick 6.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • bumppinee
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 07-22-08
                                                                • 361

                                                                #32
                                                                ck im with you tonight i need this win bad as UCLA ****ed me over yesterday. i swear they were hovering over the spread the whole game, they would get to -22 and just stay there and go back and fourth.

                                                                Magic -5
                                                                Bobcats +8
                                                                Comment
                                                                • nick2060
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 10-28-08
                                                                  • 1051

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Not good reasons by any means but one of the touts on the front page has orlando and the line dropped even though about 75 percent of people are on Orlando, so common sense would tell me somethings fishy here, i gotta make a play on the clippers, it worked out for me too many times before, good luck guys
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Broncos9798
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 12-02-08
                                                                    • 236

                                                                    #34
                                                                    I agree that it looks fishy but it defiantly isn't motivating me to bet LA. Its either Orlando or no play for me.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • cocknocker
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 11-06-08
                                                                      • 8001

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Thanks pronk,

                                                                      Wichita State it is. I put in my play already! I saw that the moneyline doesn't match up with the amount of points being offered. This line will drop.

                                                                      As far as the Orlando drop, i have a feeling that the Marbury/Nelson trade must be on the verge of happening, and Orlando may be minus Nelson tonight. Reddick is a more pure shooter and has been looking for more playing time too. He makes some blunders, and van Gundy leans on him too hard. But he is more than capable of knocking down an open shot. He is being misused in my opionion. You don't lead the Blue Devils as well as he did if he wasn't a good player or didn't have "handles". He is what he is, a player who can shoot the lights out when he gets hot.

                                                                      If the Magic play short on players tonight, so what? What they have left is still going to be better than what the Clips put on the floor. Line watchers, be very careful of this one if you are thinking of placing your wager on the Clips. The Clips won by 23 in their last game, and the Magic failed to cover against the Thunder. It's up to you to use your judgement on how each will respond to those events. Wiill the Clippers build upon that succes and 5th game in 7 days, or will Orlando's form of being a good road team in their 1st road game of a 5 game road trip. With that in mind, line drop aside, what makes you think that they would not want to start something like that ( 5 game trip)off with a bang and start off 0-1.

                                                                      Dwight is not listed on the injury report, so he is playing. Bogans is playing, Turkoglu and Rashard too. I don't think that the Knicks have any other player on their team that Orlando would be interested in, so it looks like Nelson may be gone by gametime. If Van Gundy leaves Reddick on the floor awhile and lives with both the good an bad things he does, then that confidence will get him back on track. He is playing too cautiously with one eye on Van Gundy all the time. Moreover than that, if everyone is there when this game starts, then Orlando will win this thing by 10. I don't need to watch the line on this one.

                                                                      A big play will swing the line sometimes. Most often it is done to get a window of time that wiseguys can get their plays off, before the line comes back and then passes what it was at first. So if a line watcher pounds the Clips at 3.5 or 3 when the line is offered for a segment of the day, but by gametime they are favored by 6, then a whole lot of players (even the best cappers I know have this happen to them)within that time frame played on suspicion theory. If the line ends up like 6 by gametime then we'll know what was going on.

                                                                      For all that we know a last minute thing may kill all possibility of the deal getting done today, everyone is there and then the blowout is on to win one for "Nelson" on his way out of town. To be honest, I would have taken this game at Orlando-6 (an 8 point win needed to cash the ticket) even if he was on the inactive roster for the game with everyone else there.

                                                                      We have the same thing going on with our Warriors game, but with more violence. The line started off +4.5 and now it's at Warriors+1. So the line is doing what it's supposed to do and the books are screaming at him to slow down the action on the game. They need to time to assess things for the new line. This game will be taken off the board soon. And when it reappears, the Warriors will be -2 or 2.5.
                                                                      Comment
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