Great odds @ Unibet for 12/13 NBA Champion

wilfra · 12-08-12, 11:26 PM

They're gonna owe me 5 figures if any one of like 8 different likely playoff teams win it all

Goat Milk · 12-08-12, 11:30 PM

Originally posted by wilfra

Portland @ 1000
Orlando @ 1000
New Orleans @ 2500

You can't be serious with these bets??

I'll offer you +500,000 on any of these teams winning the championship. Since we can't do bets on this site for money, I'll leave this site forever if any of those 3 teams even makes it past the second round.

This is the NBA my friend, not the NCAA tournament.

wilfra · 12-09-12, 09:24 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

You can't be serious with these bets??

I'll offer you +500,000 on any of these teams winning the championship. Since we can't do bets on this site for money, I'll leave this site forever if any of those 3 teams even makes it past the second round.

This is the NBA my friend, not the NCAA tournament.

This seems to be roughly the logic of whomever sets their lines. It's flawed. Just because an event is extremely unlikely to happen doesn't mean it is unimportant to calculate the odds correctly. There is an entire profession devoted to this: actuaries. They calculate the odds of unlikely events for insurance companies. If the insurance companies took your and Unibets stance there would be no need for these guys to go to great lengths, at great cost, calculating the odds of an earthquake or a tsunami - they would just say 'lol earthquakes, this isn't the NCAA....' and collect their premiums - and then one day they would go spectacularly broke.

wilfra · 12-09-12, 09:25 AM

As for your +500,000 bet, I will gladly take it if you can get a reputable Bookmaker to guarantee the bet - and I would like to bet the absolute maximum, whatever they approve. Then I will immediately make a huge profit by arbing that bet elsewhere.

Goat Milk · 12-09-12, 12:57 PM

Originally posted by wilfra

This seems to be roughly the logic of whomever sets their lines. It's flawed. Just because an event is extremely unlikely to happen doesn't mean it is unimportant to calculate the odds correctly. There is an entire profession devoted to this: actuaries. They calculate the odds of unlikely events for insurance companies. If the insurance companies took your and Unibets stance there would be no need for these guys to go to great lengths, at great cost, calculating the odds of an earthquake or a tsunami - they would just say 'lol earthquakes, this isn't the NCAA....' and collect their premiums - and then one day they would go spectacularly broke.

No, no. You don't understand. It's not extremely unlikely to happen. There's a 0% chance. It's literally a 0% chance that any of these teams can win the championship (with the exception of the Spurs obviously--talking about the other 3).

You lose if you arb no matter what. Even if one of those 3 teams are in the 2nd round (which is a less than 1% chance), you lose when you arb, because there's a 0% chance for them to win it all. Do you understand?

panik · 12-09-12, 01:46 PM

How can they win the championship if they cant even make the playoffs?

wilfra · 12-09-12, 11:17 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

No, no. You don't understand. It's not extremely unlikely to happen. There's a 0% chance. It's literally a 0% chance that any of these teams can win the championship (with the exception of the Spurs obviously--talking about the other 3).

You lose if you arb no matter what. Even if one of those 3 teams are in the 2nd round (which is a less than 1% chance), you lose when you arb, because there's a 0% chance for them to win it all. Do you understand?

You are aware you can lay teams on the exchanges, right? It's a guaranteed profit if you lay at worse odds than you bought for, on any bet, at any time...

As for 0%, you're just wrong. Then could pull of a big trade or there could be a big injury or any number of other improbable scenarios. All three are huge longshots, yes, but the prices are wrong. Thats why every other book and the exchanges are offering significantly worse odds.

wilfra · 12-09-12, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by panik

How can they win the championship if they cant even make the playoffs?

One of those three teams will make the playoffs a high % of the time. At that point they'll probably be trading at about 200. Laying them on an exchange would produce a profit on all three bets.

I didn't intend to have to back up these obviously profitable bets here, I was trying to help you guys out. If you don't understand basic math and arbitrage well enough to see that, I'm sorry to have bothered you.

wilfra · 12-09-12, 11:29 PM

Note that last year the Magic were trading at about 150 after they made the playoffs without Dwight Howard. If any team has no chance to win a championship, it was the Magic in the playoffs last year. And people were still buying at 150!

The question is not whether or not the Magic could have won it all - or whether they can this year, or whether Portland or New Orleans can. The only thing that matters is whether people are or will be willing to bet that they are at worse odds than you paid.

sando · 12-10-12, 12:09 AM

You can only trade on an exchange like Betfair or Betdaq.

You implied that you placed your wagers at a sportsbook, so therfore how can you create an arbitrage opportunity when you have no way off laying them off for a green book?

Also I tend to agree with Goat on the percentages.

Spurs @ 15 (decimal odds) Championship - 15% max
Portland @ 1000 Playoffs - 2-4% Championship - 0.3%
Orlando @ 1000 Playoffs - 1-2% Championship - 0.01%
New Orleans @ 2500 Playoffs - 1-2% Championship - 0.01%

Dharmonize · 12-10-12, 12:47 AM

Guys, you don't seem to get him. He's an arber or trader and it really doesn't matter if the bet has a likely chance of hitting or no chance at all. He might be able to "sell" it immediatelly, or wait for a better opportunity, but be sure he would sell it with profit. Although he'd have to put an enormous amount on it for the profit to be worth mentioning.

sando · 12-10-12, 12:52 AM

Originally posted by Dharmonize

Guys, you don't seem to get him. He's an arber or trader and it really doesn't matter if the bet has a likely chance of hitting or no chance at all. He might be able to "sell" it immediatelly, or wait for a better opportunity, but be sure he would sell it with profit. Although he'd have to put an enormous amount on it for the profit to be worth mentioning.

I think I get him perfectly. I am a trader myself and I have experimented with arbitrage both in sports and on the ASX. The problem is he can't trade the wagers as they were obviously placed at sports books,and in order to creat an arbitrage he would then have to go and back all 26 other NBA teams, which is an awful lot of money to have tied up for 6 months. Can you say ROI?

Dharmonize · 12-10-12, 01:00 AM

Sure, I think he just used it as a theoretical example. I see many such opportunities all the time, but don't have a bankroll large enough to back and lay them, at least not all of them. Really don't like these long-term props. I believe I can make more money in a week of betting than having my roll blocked for several months just in order to get the same profit from the "sure bet".

Dharmonize · 12-10-12, 01:19 AM

Thanx for the pts, Sando (you really didn't have to)

. GL!

bigballr9989 · 12-10-12, 02:00 AM

Wilfra: go away. K thx bye

Goat Milk · 12-10-12, 02:06 AM

Originally posted by wilfra

You are aware you can lay teams on the exchanges, right? It's a guaranteed profit if you lay at worse odds than you bought for, on any bet, at any time...

As for 0%, you're just wrong. Then could pull of a big trade or there could be a big injury or any number of other improbable scenarios. All three are huge longshots, yes, but the prices are wrong. Thats why every other book and the exchanges are offering significantly worse odds.

There's only 4-5 contenders in the entire nba right now. The NBA playoffs are a 7 game series. The better team wins 99% of the time. When I say 0% it's 0 percent. Books take free money off suckers like you that think they're finding "value" in the bobcats to win the championship. There is a 0% chance it happens. You lose when you arb because you could have bet those teams and saved the money on the bucks or bobcats or portland or whoever you said of those 3 teams will win it all.

But go ahead and put in your $100 future on the blazers and "arb" when they get to the playoffs, which there's only about a 8-10% chance that they get to.

wilfra · 12-10-12, 09:05 AM

Originally posted by sando

I think I get him perfectly. I am a trader myself and I have experimented with arbitrage both in sports and on the ASX. The problem is he can't trade the wagers as they were obviously placed at sports books,and in order to creat an arbitrage he would then have to go and back all 26 other NBA teams, which is an awful lot of money to have tied up for 6 months. Can you say ROI?

Back Hornets at Sportsbook for 2500
Lay Hornets at Exchange for 800

=Instant profit

What are you talking about?

wilfra · 12-10-12, 09:06 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

There's only 4-5 contenders in the entire nba right now. The NBA playoffs are a 7 game series. The better team wins 99% of the time. When I say 0% it's 0 percent. Books take free money off suckers like you that think they're finding "value" in the bobcats to win the championship. There is a 0% chance it happens. You lose when you arb because you could have bet those teams and saved the money on the bucks or bobcats or portland or whoever you said of those 3 teams will win it all.

But go ahead and put in your $100 future on the blazers and "arb" when they get to the playoffs, which there's only about a 8-10% chance that they get to.

I'm sorry that you can't read. I'm not going to explain it to you again.

I'm also sorry that you have no memory, like when the Mavericks won the championship two years ago.

Goat Milk · 12-10-12, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by wilfra

I'm sorry that you can't read. I'm not going to explain it to you again.

I'm also sorry that you have no memory, like when the Mavericks won the championship two years ago.

The Mavs were the best team in the West for many many years. Their team was stacked from 1-11. They were the best or (arguably) 2nd best team (Miami) in the NBA and won it all. The Spurs is a good bet but the other 3 are laughable. Portland and NO and Orlando don't have a 0.001% chance to win the championship. They have a 0% chance. I'm telling you that books take money off guys like you by making a line like that enticing. It's like betting the Chiefs or Browns to win the superbowl before the season started.

Arbing does not matter when there's a 0% involved. It's a simple concept and as a mathematician you should understand that.

rUnVnME2 · 12-10-12, 03:29 PM

So, basically, you only have a chance to make your $$$ back, IF Spurs win...

upscope · 12-10-12, 03:34 PM

u both are right....move along

wilfra · 12-10-12, 03:34 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Arbing does not matter when there's a 0% involved.

It doesn't matter if it's 0%! As long as I can find somebody to give me action on both sides of the bet, I profit. Even if the bet was that LeBron James is really a woman. If some idiot is willing to bet that he is, and somebody else is willing to bet that he isn't - I can take the first guys money and hand it to the second and keep the difference. I could care less if he's a woman or not, I just take my profit.

wilfra · 12-10-12, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by rUnVnME2

So, basically, you only have a chance to make your $$$ back, IF Spurs win...

Arbitrage betting - Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage_betting

Goat Milk · 12-10-12, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by wilfra

It doesn't matter if it's 0%! As long as I can find somebody to give me action on both sides of the bet, I profit. Even if the bet was that LeBron James is really a woman. If some idiot is willing to bet that he is, and somebody else is willing to bet that he isn't - I can take the first guys money and hand it to the second and keep the difference. I could care less if he's a woman or not, I just take my profit.

Of course it does, because whatever money you bet on Team A (portland orlando hornets), you lost. You don't guarantee any profit. Let's say you wait for one of those teams to make it past the first round of the playoffs, and then try and arb. You still lose whatever money you put on those 3 teams. You lose because if you never bet those teams in the first place, you'd have $300 extra dollars or how ever much you put on each future still in your pocket with your other (arb) bets (if you ending up going through with it) still pending.

wilfra · 12-10-12, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Let's say you wait for one of those teams to make it past the first round of the playoffs

I would never wait that long.

I also bet on the Nets at Unibet when their odds were 100. I've since taken my profit at 30 once they got hot. I'll do the same should any of those three teams get hot.

wilfra · 12-10-12, 05:21 PM

You're either trolling or really dumb or you just don't get the difference between trading/arbing and betting. I'm not betting. I agree, if I were looking for good longshots for who will be the NBA champion this year, Portland, Orlando and New Orleans would be terrible bets. But that doesn't mean they are terrible trades!

Goat Milk · 12-10-12, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by wilfra

You're either trolling or really dumb or you just don't get the difference between trading/arbing and betting. I'm not betting. I agree, if I were looking for good longshots for who will be the NBA champion this year, Portland, Orlando and New Orleans would be terrible bets. But that doesn't mean they are terrible trades!

Wilfra I've been betting the nba for many many years. I know about trading. You don't understand what I'm saying. The whole concept of arbing is about finding early value and then arbing to pretty much guarantee profits. I'm not gonna explain it again.

There is no such thing as value when 0% is involved. Do you understand?

Dharmonize · 12-10-12, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

There is no such thing as value when 0% is involved. Do you understand?

It is 0% from your perspective, but someone else might see it differently and think the chances are 2 or 5%. In trading, all you need to do is to find that person or let them find you and take/buy the odds you offer. This is what creates the market. It's like you've never bought anything overpriced for something better than it really was. If the chances in reality are 0%, but you're still able to find someone to sell your shitty product to anyway, that's what makes you a successful trader. It's got nothing to do with the quality of the product, it's got nothing to do with "reality". Just depending on your potential "customer's" subjective evaluation of the whole situation/product/bet. It really is the opinion of the market creating the VALUE. If the market is wrong, the value is there for you to find it. Even if there was totally none objectively.

Goat Milk · 12-10-12, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by Dharmonize

It is 0% from your perspective, but someone else might see it differently and think the chances are 2 or 5%. In trading, all you need to do is to find that person or let them find you and take/buy the odds you offer. This is what creates the market. It's like you've never bought anything overpriced for something better than it really was. If the chances in reality are 0%, but you're still able to find someone to sell your shitty product to anyway, that's what makes you a successful trader. It's got nothing to do with the quality of the product, it's got nothing to do with "reality". Just depending on your potential "customer's" subjective evaluation of the whole situation/product/bet. It really is the opinion of the market creating the VALUE. If the market is wrong, the value is there for you to find it. Even if there was totally none objectively.

No it's not my perspective. It's a fact. There is a 0 percent chance Portland, Hornets, or Magic will win the championship this year. It's not 0.001%, it's not 0.1%, it's 0%.

Why do you think Books are still offering odds on the Chiefs to win the superbowl even though there is a 0% chance that they can even make the playoffs at this point? Because they know there are still suckers out there that say, "oh, chiefs +500,000 to win the superbowl? Damn. That's value. I'll throw $2 on that to win $10,000! Why not!"

breikert · 12-10-12, 06:25 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

No it's not my perspective. It's a fact. There is a 0 percent chance Portland, Hornets, or Magic will win the championship this year. It's not 0.001%, it's not 0.1%, it's 0%.

Why do you think Books are still offering odds on the Chiefs to win the superbowl even though there is a 0% chance that they can even make the playoffs at this point? Because they know there are still suckers out there that say, "oh, chiefs +500,000 to win the superbowl? Damn. That's value. I'll throw $2 on that to win $10,000! Why not!"

I'm sorry my friend, but do you understand what trading is all about, really?

For example:

New Orleans @ 2500 <--- Thats what he gets at Unibet.

New Orleans @ 2000 <--- Thats what he can sell at Betfair.

Cant you see its a difference of 500 on this team, in which he makes profit, no matter if the damn team will or EVEN can reach playoffs, even if their all players died it doesnt matter.

Cant you see he is getting profit ANYWAY.

Dharmonize · 12-10-12, 08:08 PM

I can see your point, Goat, but I'm afraid you don't see "mine". Nevermind, you don't need to. You're probably good at what you're doing (I'm not here to judge) and trading is really not attractive to everyone. Not to mention I am no ambassador of trading. It is "slower" and less entertaining than betting, yet also much much safer. I personally like combining both, trading and betting. If there comes a brutal downswing, I don't start chasing and risking my hardly built bankroll, but stick to trading for a while, get some units back and then, with a calm head, start betting and regaining my confidence again. This has happened to me several times in the past, and most probably saved me from going bankrupt. GL!

I still enjoy this thread. At least it provides a different view and some fresh air. I've grown tired of seeing only "Who you guys think will win tonight??" or "Absolute LOCK of the century" kind of threads all the time...

wilfra · 12-11-12, 04:43 AM

Originally posted by dharmonize

it is 0% from your perspective, but someone else might see it differently and think the chances are 2 or 5%. In trading, all you need to do is to find that person or let them find you and take/buy the odds you offer. This is what creates the market. It's like you've never bought anything overpriced for something better than it really was. If the chances in reality are 0%, but you're still able to find someone to sell your shitty product to anyway, that's what makes you a successful trader. It's got nothing to do with the quality of the product, it's got nothing to do with "reality". Just depending on your potential "customer's" subjective evaluation of the whole situation/product/bet. It really is the opinion of the market creating the value. If the market is wrong, the value is there for you to find it. Even if there was totally none objectively.

this!

wilfra · 12-11-12, 04:50 AM

No it's not my perspective. It's a fact. There is a 0 percent chance Portland, Hornets, or Magic will win the championship this year. It's not 0.001%, it's not 0.1%, it's 0%.

There are some idiots on the exchanges who disagree with you (probably fans of those teams, or traders/bookies who know where to find fans of those teams and who are arbing me) and it is from them that the value comes.

Nobody is disagreeing with you that it's 0% any of them wins the Finals. Personally, I think its some number < 1% and > 0% and you think it's exactly 0.0000000000% - but essentially we mean the same thing. I just recognize that 'nearly impossible' and 'impossible' are not the same thing, and you don't seem to have the intellectual capacity to understand that.

sando · 12-11-12, 05:20 AM

Originally posted by wilfra

Back Hornets at Sportsbook for 2500
Lay Hornets at Exchange for 800

=Instant profit

What are you talking about?

At $800 to simply lay them for a measly $100 would cost you $80,000. You cannot create a 'green book' as your (stupid) back bet was placed elsewhere, so instead you will have massive chunks of your roll tied up on both sides, instead of $0 tied up from creating a green book. So what have you got a million dollar bank roll and you are willing to tie up 8% on this 'arb' play, and then go and do something similar for the other three teams. I've been trading on Betfair for 5 years, who are you trying to fool? GTFO.