All Logic's NBA Bets

[AllLogicBets]

Hey all,

I wanted to start a thread to track my NBA picks and have a place to put my write-ups. I'm not here to tell you all to play my picks and brag about my insane winning percentage. I have had success betting the NBA in the past and only hope to have success this year. I don't follow any 'formula' or 'chase' system. I simply look at each game and research as much as I can to decide if I think there is a good play. Rather then just posting my picks I am going to try and give reasoning behind each of my picks so you can decide on your own if you'd like to make the same play. Just consider this another resource of the many I'm sure you have.

Also, consider all of my plays equal units unless noted otherwise.

Here are my picks for the 11/10/12 NBA games:

OVER 201 Phoenix at Utah (-110)

This should be a very up-tempo game between Phoenix and Utah. Phoenix is averaging 99ppg while giving up an average of 105ppg. They always push the tempo, but the key here is that Utah is picking up their offensive pace this year. Last year Utah had a pace of 91.4 on average. This year their pace is up to 94.3 as they are trying to run a little bit more. Losing Steve Nash hasn't slowed down the pace of Phoenix so far this year. Their pace is at 95.6 vs 92.6 last season. Between the 3 games these teams played each other last season the average total was 210.33. As long as both teams shoot over 40% I am pretty confident that their increased pace this year will push the game over 201.

PORTLAND +3 vs San Antonio (-110)

The public is heavily on San Antonio in this game. I will gladly fade the public in this game and take Portland +3. Portland has a lot going for them in this game. They are the more rested team as they are playing with a days rest in the middle of a homestand while San Antonio is on a back-to-back. Portland has also won 8 consecutive games at home verses San Antonio straight up. To make matters even worse for the Spurs they have several players battling illness including Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. Take the points although I think that Portland may win outright.

OVER 203 Denver at Golden State (-110)

Last year these teams went over 203 each of the three times they played. They totaled 207, 209, and 210 in their last three contests head-to-head. I see no reason that the trend will stop as both teams are playing with increased pace this season compared to last. Denver has gone from 94.2 to 94.6 (somewhat even) while Golden State has gone from 92.3 to 95.8. I don't expect Golden State to slow down any with Andrew Bogut being out and with them being at home. Take the over.

[AllLogicBets]

1-1-1 on the day. Here are my picks for 11/11/12 (write-ups coming in the morning):

UNDER 196 Miami at Memphis (-110)

UNDER 192 Orlando at Brooklyn (-110)

[AllLogicBets]

2-0 yesterday (3-1-1 YTD)

Haven't reviewed all games yet for tonight but wanted to post this play before the game started:

UNDER 189 Milwaukee at Philadelphia (-110)

These teams always go under when playing. Milwaukee will try to push the pace but they just aren't efficient enough offensively for it to run the total up. Philly will slow it down and dictate the total. I feel the total should have been set closer to 182. The under is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams and they still haven't brought the total line down far enough for that trend to end.

[AllLogicBets]

Here are my final plays for the day:

UNDER 189 Milwaukee at Philadelphia (-110)
(see above post)

Atlanta at PORTLAND (-3) (-110)
Portland is finishing off the end of their 3 game homestand tonight and I don't see any way that they don't get a win during this homestand. They played well enough to beat San Antonio the other night but the shooters for San Antonio were on fire. Portland has won 10 of the last 13 meetings between these two teams at the Rose Garden. Atlanta may also be without Josh Smith as he is battling illness and is a gametime decision. Portland is the superior team and they are at home. Swallow the 3 points and go with the favorite.

[sando]

2-0 yesterday (3-1-1 YTD)

Haven't reviewed all games yet for tonight but wanted to post this play before the game started:

UNDER 189 Milwaukee at Philadelphia (-110)

These teams always go under when playing. Milwaukee will try to push the pace but they just aren't efficient enough offensively for it to run the total up. Philly will slow it down and dictate the total. I feel the total should have been set closer to 182. The under is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams and they still haven't brought the total line down far enough for that trend to end.

Couldn't agree more, I have this play also, good luck mate

[AllLogicBets]

3-3-1 YTD after a rough day yesterday. Two plays tonight:

NEW YORK (-6.5) at Orlando (-110)
Orlando isn't nearly as good as their 2 wins would suggest. They are dead last in the NBA in scoring at 87.8ppg. I have a hard time seeing how they find points against a Knicks team that is #1 in scoring defense allowing just 87.5ppg. New York is also #2 in scoring offensively with 104.5ppg. Since Orlando's 2-0 start, they have lost their last 4 games by an average of 17 points. The closest game they have had is a 6 point loss to Chicago. I just don't see how they get things going offensively against New York since they really lack someone that can create their own shot. They should get better later in the year once Hedo gets back, but until then they might be the worst team in the NBA.

PORTLAND (+2.5) at Sacramento (-110)
I am still high on Portland even though they burned me last night. They have a sick amount of talent on their team but I am starting to question if they can overcome the defensively-challenged coach they have in Terry Stotts. This team is really just a defensive-minded head coach away from being a contender in the West. Portland has been underachieving and they are coming off of a back-to-back going on the road to Sacramento. So why am I taking them? Cousins is out again with suspension. No way Sacramento can beat Portland without their best player.

[AllLogicBets]

Adding another bet on Portland for tonight:

PORTLAND ml (+125)

[AllLogicBets]

Had a good bounce back last night going 3-0.

YTD 6-3-1 (66.67%)

Have had a busy day so currently reviewing games. One play to post quick before the game starts:

UNDER 186 Detroit at Philadelphia (-110)
Neither team is impressive offensively and they both play in the bottom half of the NBA in regards to pace. The Bucks were able to run on Philly last time out but that won't be the Pistons MO. Look for both teams to try and make this a halfcourt game. Each team averages under 92 points per game so far this season. The under is 4-1 in their last 5 meetings and 8-2 in the last 10 at Philly. 186 is the highest total for O/U these teams have seen in their last 4 meetings. Nice number to take the under on.

More plays likely to come for tonight......

[AllLogicBets]

....another play for tonight.

Charlotte +6.5 at Minnesota (-110)
I know Charlotte is winless on the road (0-2) while Minnesota is undefeated at home (3-0). I realize that Charlotte is coming off of a back-to-back while Minnesota has a day of rest. So why am I taking Charlotte? Bodies. Minnesota doesn't have any. They have been playing all year without Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio so that doesn't mean much for this game. However, they now have lost Chase Budinger and their leading scorer Nikola Pekovic. Oh yeah, Jose Barea and Brandon Roy are still out too. They have done an incredible job overcoming injuries but the toll has become too much. Pekovic has been having a very solid year and his loss will hurt them. Meanwhile, the young Bobcats have been improving and are starting to catch a little momentum with back-to-back wins over Dallas and Washington. I'd love to take the OVER in this game as well because the number is extremely tempting. However, I just don't know what to expect from such a depleted Minnesota squad. Take Charlotte +6.5 and strongly consider the ml.

[AllLogicBets]

All plays for 11/14:

UNDER 186 Detroit at Philadelphia (-110)
Charlotte +6.5 at Minnesota (-110)
(see analysis above for both games)
UNDER 193 Atlanta at Golden State (-110)
When these teams met last year the totals were 167 in Atlanta and 174 in Golden State. While Golden State has been posting high totals recently, it has been against other running teams and an OT game. Atlanta has really been trending with some low totals this season. They are averaging just 92.5 per game and haven't seen a total go over 193 in their last 4 games. These games weren't against halfcourt slow pace teams either. 3 of the last 4 have been against high octane teams in Portland, the Clippers, and Miami. If those teams can't get a total higher than 184 against Atlanta then I have a hard time believing Golden State will push it over 193. If a team gets hot anything can happen, but I will play the percentages here and take the under.

[ProGambler]

Is Washington +8.5 a good play?

[AllLogicBets]

Is Washington +8.5 a good play?

If I don't play it then I feel it is too 50/50 for me. I don't think it is a bad play since I didn't see the strength in taking Dallas either, but too unpredictable for my taste. BOL though if you played it!

[ProGambler]

Washington miracle covers for me Thanks God

[AllLogicBets]

Back-to-back 3-0 nights. Brings me to 9-3-1 YTD (75%)

I have one play for tonight that I like so far:

OVER 201.5 Miami at Denver (-110)
As everyone knows, Denver will try to run the Heat out of the gym tonight since Miami is coming off of a back-to-back with travel. Denver has owned Miami at home but everyone has caught on to that now so I don't see value in taking Denver unless the line moves in favor of the Heat. Miami is much worse defensively this season giving up 101ppg compared to just 92.5ppg last season. Even with their top 5 defense last season, when these teams met in Denver the total 221. Two seasons ago the total was 232 in Denver. These teams have already played this year in Miami and that total reached 235. Denver will sprint against the Heat in this position and I don't see the Heat backing down from that challenge. Oddly, the total has been moving down so early money is on the Under. You may get a better number if you wait but I'll gladly take the Over at 201.5.

I also love Boston getting 4.5 points against Brooklyn tonight but will not make a play if Rondo is ruled out. If I hear Rondo is playing and can get that number I will be all over it. Boston owns the Nets.

[AllLogicBets]

0-1 last night and now (9-4-1 YTD).

Tonight's plays:

UTAH ml at Philadelphia (+105) 1x
Philadelphia has not looked good at all this season and they are just 1-3 at home. However, the Jazz are 1-5 on the road so something has to give in this one. While Philly has a good defense, I just don't see them having enough offense to keep up with Utah in this one. The Jazz are much more effective offensively when Mo Williams is on the court. This game will be determined in the paint though. Philadelphia has really struggled inside without the presence of Andrew Bynum. When Kwame Brown is your answer at center that poses some problems. The Jazz have the deepest frontcourt in the NBA and I look for them to pound the 76ers in the paint and on the boards in this one. Philly was outrebounded 57-38 recently against Detroit.

DALLAS +2 at Indiana (-110) 1x
Indiana has been completely lost on offense without Granger. I will judge this game based on this season's production instead of expectations based off of last season. One of Indiana's assistant coaches hinted to Bucks announcer Jim Paschke that Indiana is lacking chemistry this season. Dallas has a winning record without Dirk so far this season and OJ Mayo and Chris Kaman have looked impressive. Dallas may also be getting back Shawn Marion for this contest. Until Indiana gets things figured out offensively I will continue to play against them if they are favored against teams with a winning record this season.

GOLDEN ST ml at Minnesota (even) 1x
Same reasoning for fading Minnesota last time out when they hosted Charlotte. Missing six key players due to injury is simply too difficult to overcome. Pekovic has been a key player for Minnesota this season and I will continue to play against them with him being out. Golden State has won 15 of the last 20 meetings and both contests in Minnesota last season. I don't see that changing when Minnesota is missing Rubio, Love, Pekovic, Roy, Barea, and Budinger. Klay Thompson (35.8%) and Steph Curry (37.1%) haven't shot well yet this season for Golden State so if either player gets it going in this one I would expect a blowout. If they don't, I still think Golden State has enough to win with David Lee, Carl Landry, and an emerging Harrison Barnes. Huge talent difference in this game. Take the talent over the home court advantage.

[vasilli07]

Nice analysis. On jazz maybe gs too.

[vasilli07]

Any thoughts on Portland?

[Itsamazing777]

Marion is playing.

[rumnblack]

Marion is playing.

Yes

[AllLogicBets]

Rough start looking like the first two today will go 0-2. Adding a late play for tonight:

ATLANTA -2 at Sacramento (-110) 1x
Sacramento is getting Cousins back which will definitely be a boost for them. Atlanta is expected to have Al Horford back as well as he is recovering from illness. The Hawks have looked pretty good this season considering the loss of Joe Johnson. This is the 5th home game for the Kings this season and they have yet to pick up an ATS win at home (0-3-1). It does appear that Jimmer is starting to find his game and will likely start seeing more minutes. I just believe the Hawks are too deep of a team for Sacramento to hang in there. With Josh Smith, Al Horford, Kyle Korver, Jeff Teague, and Lou Williams....they have plenty of options offensively. They have also been getting some nice contributions this year from Stevenson, Anthony Morrow, and Ivan Johnson. Don't forget the big bruiser Zaza Pachulia. If he plays tonight he could easily get in Cousins head. The Hawks are way under the radar this season. While I don't think they are a contender by any stretch of the imagination, they should definitely be able to beat the Kings. Atlanta is also 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these teams.

[AllLogicBets]

Any thoughts on Portland?

I LOVE Portland this year but have avoiding making any plays on the Rockets so far. I just have a hard time deciding if I think the Rockets are any good. I think Portland has better top level talent with Lillard, Aldridge, and Batum....but they have zero bench and rely too much on the three. Houston goes as James Harden goes. If Portland hits their 3's at a decent clip they win. If they don't they lose. They are a few solid bench players and a little defense away from being a contender imo. No play for me in this one but if I had to pick I would take Portland at home.

[AllLogicBets]

2-2 on the day.

11-6-1 YTD (64.7%)

I have one play ready for tomorrow. More likely to follow in the morning but wanted to get this one on the board before the line starts shrinking.DENVER +7 at San Antonio (-110) 1xAnalysis will be posted tomorrow....

[AllLogicBets]

NBA plays for today:

DENVER +7 at San Antonio (-110) 1x
Denver is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 trips to San Antonio. I think San Antonio is the superior team but I love the value here with a good Denver team. Faried has been a double-double machine for them this season and his relentless energy has had a huge effect on games. Ty Lawson had his worst performance of the season last time out against the Heat so I fully expect a nice bounceback game from him. Denver's defense has been a nice surprise this season as they are allowing opponents to shoot just 42.7% from the field. They are also outrebounding their opponents by 9.5 boards per game which is allowing them to average almost 4 more FGA per game over their opponents. The Spurs are getting outrebounded by 3 boards per game and getting 2.6 less shot per game then their opponents. I think San Antonio wins this game but it should be closer than 7 points. Also, if your book has this game's total at 202 or higher I would play the UNDER. My book is currently at 200.5 so I am waiting for it to hopefully go up so I can play on the extra value.
UTAH -2.5 at Washington (-110) 1x
Utah is terrible on the road and Washington is just terrible in general. This is truly a battle of who sucks less and I have to take talent over all in this one. Washington without Nene and Wall has not been able to pick up a win. While Utah has struggled historically on the road they are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 trips to Washington. Utah is better and more efficient in almost every statistical category, have more talent, and have more experience. Washington is scoring an awful 88.1 points per game while giving up 99.6. As a team they are shooting just 40.7% and Utah's frontline won't make anything easy for them in the paint.
OVER 201 Dallas at Cleveland (-110) 1x
The bad news is that this total has been bet down to 199 now so I appear to be on the wrong side of the smart money. However, I strongly believe that Cleveland will try and push the pace at home knowing that Dallas is on a back-to-back. Cleveland is currently 2nd in the NBA in pace at 95.4 possessions per game. They are also 29th in defensive scoring allowing 104.8 ppg, and 29th in defensive rating giving up 109.8 ppg per 100 possessions. I know they put in a lot of effort defensively with their days off but I don't think that will trump their desire to run a team coming off of a back-to-back. Also, the Cavs total has been at 201 or higher in 6 of their last 7 contests this season. Dallas has been a high pace team as well this year ranking 6th in the league at 93.4 possessions per game. They are 5th in scoring at 100.5 ppg while 22nd in scoring defense at 99.7 ppg. Both teams like a quick pace and both teams are bad defensively. Sounds like a good formula for taking the OVER.

[AllLogicBets]

Going against the grain on another total for tonight:

UNDER 202 Denver at San Antonio (-110) 1x
Here are the figures I have taken into consideration:
How many times has the total gone over 202 for these two teams this season?
Denver: 3 of 9 games (33.33%)
San Antonio: 4 of 9 games (44.44%)

When the O/U has been set at 200+ how many times have their games gone over?
Denver: 2 of 5 (40%)
San Antonio: 1 of 2 (50%)

A look at the referees. How many games have gone OVER for each ref since last season when the total is between 195-205?
Bennie Adams: 5 of 18 games (27.78%)
Curtis Blair: 7 of 20 (35%)
Leon Wood: 5 of 15 (33.33%)

A look at Pace:
Denver's pace was 94.2 last season and is 92.7 this season. A drop although small sample size.
San Antonio's pace was 92.9 last season and is 92.2 this season. A slight drop but the key is neither team has increased their pace.

A look at Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions):
Denver's Off Rtg was 109.2 last season and has dropped to 103.8 this season.
San Antonio's Off Rtg was 110.9 last season and has dropped to 105.2 this season.

A look at Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions):
Denver's Def Rtg was 106.2 last season and has improved to 103.3 this season.
San Antonio's Def Rtg was 103.2 last season and has improved to 101.8 this season.

Trends in O/U?
The UNDER is 19-6-1 in the last 26 meetings in San Antonio.
The last time these teams played the total was 193.

The bad news?
The total has exceeded 202 in 6 of the last 7 meetings between these teams (obviously not the last meeting).

I believe Denver is a MUCH better defensive team due to personnel this season (addition of Iggy and more playing time for Faried). This could obviously go either way but I am going with the data and taking the UNDER.

[AllLogicBets]

Rough day yesterday going 1-3.
12-9-1 YTD (57.14%)

Wish I would have gotten on these lines when they opened but I'll still take the value with what I got:

Chicago at PORTLAND pk (-110) 1x

BROOKLYN -3 at Sacramento (-110) 1x

Don't have time for a writeup today but I think I have the better teams in both of these games. Portland is better than Chicago and is playing at home. Brooklyn is in a different class then Sacramento.

[AllLogicBets]

Nice bounce back day in the NBA (2-0) and NFL (6-0).

Now 14-9-1 in the NBA. (60.87%)

Haven't reviewed Monday's games as of yet but hopefully will have some plays by the early afternoon tomorrow.

[AllLogicBets]

Picks for 11/19/12:

UNDER 180 Indiana at Washington (-110) 1x
Let's look at a few statistical facts here:

Points per game
Indiana: 88.1 (29th)
Washington: 86.6 (30th)

Points Allowed per game
Indiana: 90.1 (2nd)
Washington: 94.4 (10th)

Offensive Rating (points per 100 possessions)
Indiana: 96.0 (29th)
Washington: 94.1 (30th)

Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions)
Indiana: 98.2 (1st)
Washington: 102.5 (12th)

Pace
Indiana: 90 (28th)
Washington: 90.9 (25th)

These are the two worst offensive teams in the NBA so far this season per 100 possessions. They are also 2 of the 5 slowest pace teams in the NBA currently. Combine that with the fact that Indiana is very good defensively (best in the league per 100 possessions) and the odds of this game going under 180 become look very solid. These teams have played once already this year with the total coming in at 174. I would expect a similar total for this game given all of the data.


HOUSTON +6.5 at Utah (-110) 1x
Utah is getting a big line here due to them being rested at home against a team coming off of a back-to-back. These teams appear to be fairly equal so I'd expect that Utah has performed very well in recent history giving this situational play. Quite the contrary. In their last 4 games at home when they have had 1 or more days rest with their opponent on a back-to-back Utah has gone 1-3 ATS. Since the calendar year 2011 Utah has gone just 6-12 ATS in this same situation. I think they have the advantage in this game but the value definitely is with Houston here.

[AllLogicBets]

Down to 14-11-1 (56%) on the year after a rough Monday.

Play for 11/20/12:

NEW YORK -5.5 at New Orleans (-110) 1x

[AllLogicBets]

Hit the Knicks tonight to move to 15-11-1 (57.69%).

Still researching tomorrow's games but I have a couple of plays ready along with my first 2 unit play of the year.

OVER 201.5 Portland at Phoenix (-110) 1x

SAN ANTONIO -1.5 at Boston (-110) 2x (first 2 unit play of the year)
I like San Antonio regardless but it is worth noting the Paul Pierce is questionable for this game. If you like the line whether he plays or not I would suggest getting in on this game just in case he is ruled out and the line sees major movement.

[AllLogicBets]

Final plays for 11/21/12:

OVER 201.5 Portland at Phoenix (-110) 1x

SAN ANTONIO -1.5 at Boston (-110) 2x (first 2 unit play of the year)
San Antonio is better and I don't see them losing two in a row. Paul Pierce is questionable for this game.

MILWAUKEE +10 at Miami (-110) 1x
The Milwaukee Bucks beat the Heat twice last season SU. They are also 2-1 SU at Miami since LeBron brought his talents to South Beach. This isn't the same Bucks team though. They were able to match up extremely well with Miami with Andrew Bogut clogging the lane defensively in 2 of those 3 games (went 1-1 in those). They also had some defenders on their roster that really seemed to give LeBron some frustration with Carlos Delfino and Luc Richard Mbah Moute. Delfino is now in Houston and Mbah Moute hasn't played all season due to injury. Miami has't played against the Bucks since they acquired Monte Ellis so it will definitely be a different kind of match up. That said, Milwaukee is playing very well early this season and I think they score enough points against a disappointing Heat defense to keep it in single digits. Even without Bogut, the Bucks do have some really good inside defenders in Larry Sanders and Ekpe Udoh. The key for them is to stay out of foul trouble which has been an issue. When Larry is in, look for him to defend much the same way Bogut did as a roaming help defender to stop penetration.

NEW YORK -2.5 at Dallas (-110) 1x
Who has Dallas beat this year? The Lakers (first game of the year under Mike Brown) and Portland would qualify as good wins. Those were 2 of the first 4 games of the year. Their other wins are against Charlotte, Toronto, Washington, and Cleveland. Dallas and New York have met once so far this year with the Knicks winning by 10. New York is coming off of a back-to-back which is the reason the spread is so low. Take the value. New York averages 5 more shots per game then their opponents and Dallas allows 5 more shots per game to their opponents. The reason? New York is the best in the NBA at turnover differential while Dallas gives up more offensive rebounds then they get and turns it over more then their opponent. When these teams met earlier this year Dallas actually out-rebounded New York but still had 3 less shot attempts because the Knicks forced 20 turnovers to their 9.

[Catchn_Picks]

Thank you ALB...gl tonight and gl to all

[AllLogicBets]

Absolute heartbreaker in the Portland/Phoenix game to end the night 2-2. OVER was 201.5 and they finish at 201 with Portland pulling all of their starters with 6 minutes left in the game on their way to scoring just 16 points in the final quarter. Ugh.

[AllLogicBets]

NBA Overall YTD Record: 17-13-1 (56.67%)
Sides: 12-6-1 (66.67%)
Totals: 5-7 (41.67%)

Total Units: +3.81

Until tonight I have been playing just 1 unit per play. I am going to start trying to vary my units per play to see if I can create extra profitability. Great start to the year on side picks but struggling with totals.

[AllLogicBets]

11/23:

SAN ANTONIO -4 at Indiana (-110) 2x
Going to ride San Antonio on the road again tonight with another 2 unit play. Indiana seems to have turned the corner and is playing well lately, but the Spurs own the Pacers even when they have Granger. Indiana has had some games this year that they have had trouble putting the ball in the basket. If they struggle offensively in any quarter against the Spurs they will be in big trouble.

Not a big fan of any other lines today as they all seem to be pretty accurate.

[AllLogicBets]

Huge 3 Unit play for Saturday 11/24:

CLIPPERS -1 at Atlanta (-110) 3x
If you like it get on it quick because this line has already started moving and will continue to move.

Adding an additional 2 Unit play for Saturday:

CHARLOTTE +3.5 at Washington (-110) 2x
Charlotte is 2-1 SU this season when playing on a back-to-back. Washington is awful without John Wall and there is no reason to believe he will be back for this game. Also, Charlotte destroyed Washington earlier this year 92-76. I'll take the better team plus points all day long.