T-Wizz 2012-2013 NBA Thread

[thachosen1]

How did you do today t-wizzler?? btw i ent 3 out of 4 correct.. lakers was up 18 and blew it late.. hehe http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...ks-day-p2.html

[t-wizzle]

Nets +2 -105 (6x); ML +115 (2x)

Jazz -7.5 -105 (6x)

Pistons +8 -107 (3x); ML +315 (1x)

Rockets +4 -102 (4x); ML +165 (1x)

[t-wizzle]

Celtics -7 -104 (3x)

[meyer0416]

gordon hayward out.. any issues there?

[thachosen1]

wow Chosen1 is a b*tch!!!

T-wizzle no body follow your picks beside this lil chilli picture kid.. #ND15X? hehe

[thachosen1]

Dragonchilli is the #1jinx, notice t-wizzle being doing bad in all picks???WHy?? chilli boy being following his picks lolQUOTE=DragonKing168;17584112]So Bucks can cover 2h.[/QUOTE]

[BigDofBA]

T-wizzle no body follow your picks beside this lil chilli picture kid.. #ND15X? hehe

Pathetic someone created a completely new profile to e-stalk and pretend they're a girl...

[Speedy88]

Good luck today Wizzle. I like Houston tonight too, if Denver were the play they'd be -5. Hopefully Brooklyn can make a nice push before the half too.

[t-wizzle]

Guys like I said I just ignore that weirdo. I reported him/her/it to the mods but I have no interest in interacting. I would like to think mods would respond to my report but if they don't then so be it.

[t-wizzle]

Nets +2 -110 (4x); ML +130 (3x)

That essentially gives me them +2 for 10x for the game and ML for 5x. They will win this game.

[t-wizzle]

[h3da]

Tough loss.. Any leans for tomorrow?

[Speedy88]

That was a pretty pathetic performance by the Nets. Reggie Evans is a goon.

[thachosen1]

WOW Utah another way off pick...

Nets +2 -105 (6x); ML +115 (2x)

Jazz -7.5 -105 (6x)

Pistons +8 -107 (3x); ML +315 (1x)

Rockets +4 -102 (4x); ML +165 (1x)

[Spoon19xx]

Instafade

[thachosen1]

hehe dont be sad, im helping you all win win win.. Twizzle what are your tips tonight so we can fade you?

[fitguy67]

this is the graph of the accumulated units, starting from 0 on Mar02, 2012
all plays taken in the exact sequence and at the exact odds as posted in wizzer's sheet (till Jan24...and from the NB&NCAAB threads since then)...

*all played FLAT=TO WIN 1unit
*the horizontal ("time") axis is expressed as "slates" rather than dates...since mar02, there have been 334 calendar dates, but only 168 days of actual play ("slates")...yesterday was slate 168
*each point represents the end-of-slate units accumulated to that point

_______________

here's the "tale of the tape"
plays (pushes ignored)=1013 (517-496)
days=334
slates=168

netted units=66.06 (an amazing +0.4units per slate)
risked units=962.07
so yield %= 6.86%

best position ever=86.26 (just a few days ago, before this current -23% counter-trend move off the the peak)
worst position ever=-3.41 (encountered very early in the history)

[fitguy67]

i tried to copy an excel graph...but it didn't make it

point of it all is this...counter-trend moves are the cost of doing business...

everybody says "it's a marathon, not a sprint"...but along comes a modest-sized correction (most will eat up 25% of your latest peak, but still leave you well above where the last correction bottomed out at)...and everybody forgets about the marathon & gets diaper-rash and starts to "bite the hand that feeds" (ie. bitch at the capper)

[fitguy67]

i just can't figure out how to attach the graph...

suffice it to say it's an upward saw-tooth of higher and higher peaks, separated by higher and higher bottoms...EXACTLY as you'd see for any generally-rising stock

People...get some perspective...and knock off all that nervous-nelly "burial" nonsense

guy's spinning out a nice set of plays, that he's obviously playing himself...don't bitch every downturn...just play with a unit-definition u REALLY can live with (keep in mind that twzl occasionally calls for more than a dozen plays on a single day...can you REALLY stand to have a quarter-to-a-third of your roll in play...and can you REALLY take it like an adult=not a whiny twat...if it turns out to be a bad day)...

(I play FLAT to-win 1%...cuz i don't like multiplying the volatility of the unit swings any more than necessary)...a set of flat bets has the same EV as that same set of bets played with different discretionary unit-levels applied (as long as the flat-bet level is set equal to the average-unit-size of the varied set)...

but flat is much less volatile=more comfortable=less likely to cause diaper rash

[fitguy67]

7%-ish yield (roughly the same by my analysis, whether played as twiz calls 'em...or flattened out as I like 'em) over 1000-plus plays is absolutely brilliant..but there's nothing ANYone can do about 5-15 runs...apart from knowing that eventually it'll be offset by a 15-5-ish-or-better run..(think baccarat banker-bets...or roulette-black bets...streaks are inevitable...but so are the counter-vailing streaks to bring long-term proportionality back)

(btw, twzl's average odds are +105...meaning we'd be long-term horizontal at a 48.7% hit rate...but the guy's hitting at over 51%...herein lies the reason why the unit-ride is up...)

but just as exhales must follow inhales...downturns leading to new bottoms
must follow tops...up-times are fun/down-times are not...

so now that you are wised up...grow up and "kwitcherbitchin'" and blaming someone else when the equity-path you're on does what it must do and "exhales"...don't get discouraged and "abandon ship"...stick to the program and keep buying your tickets for the next "inhale" phase of our journey...

NC (nuff ced) for now...

[DragonKing168]

hehe dont be sad, im helping you all win win win.. Twizzle what are your tips tonight so we can fade you?

Has anyone do a Google search for this name: Tessa (heard her last name is like the queen of England)...Chosen1, you're a fagg hahah

[t-wizzle]

Mavs +3 -109 (4x); ML +130 (1x)

[h3da]

Hey mate,

Your thoughts on your 76ers tomorrow -6 against Kings?

[t-wizzle]

Hey mate,

Your thoughts on your 76ers tomorrow -6 against Kings?

Like the Kings there. They've been pretty bad though lately.

[thachosen1]

Has anyone do a Google search for this name: Tessa (heard her last name is like the queen of England)...Chosen1, you're a fagg hahah

Have anyone heard of this minnie mouse DragonQueen? Notice nobody does fool got 44 posts and 138 "Non-props" points and trying to bang with the big cats.. #Sad lol

[thachosen1]

Like the Kings there. They've been pretty bad though lately.

Come on kings? You gonna chase them until they hit? Come on Twizzle did you let dragon do your picks now or what??? hehe

[thachosen1]

Take lakers and orl tonight thank me later loser!!! heheheheh

[thachosen1]

BTW fading these cats on blog = income lol twizzle missed his last 20 picks??? But heard only dragon still beleive him... lol

[mandude]

Question. How would I go about putting a poster in this thread on the ignore list? Is that something you can only control if you started the thread? I like to check in & see what Twiz is on but hate that I have to read/scroll through some idiots BS. Thanks in advance.

[Speedy88]

I just don't understand SBR. What is the point of having mods if they don't do anything about all these trolls.

[Vinnie Paz]

I think you have to report them (to sbr John)

Dumbass Pauly gotta warning the other day

[mandude]

Agreed. I'm not sure what they can do but I would like to block a few on here due to the fact that they offer nothing helpful or constructive. I have no interest in seeing or reading their useless information & opinions. It's a waste of thread space that just causes clutter.

[t-wizzle]

Nets -3.5 -108 (6x)

Kings +6.5 -109 (4x)

Pacers +2 -105 (3x)

Raptors +3.5 -102 (3x); ML +150 (1x)

[t-wizzle]

Bucks +5 -108 (5x)

[No coincidences]

I just don't understand SBR. What is the point of having mods if they don't do anything about all these trolls.

Exactly.