Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

**CollegePro** · 11-07-12, 04:00 PM

Already had hawks and lakers.. Feels good to be on the same side. Gl!

**sando** · 11-07-12, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by CollegePro

Already had hawks and lakers.. Feels good to be on the same side. Gl!

Berdych 7-5 in the 1st. We're off to a nice start...

**CollegePro** · 11-07-12, 04:23 PM

2nd set doesn't look good for berdych...

**sando** · 11-07-12, 05:11 PM

Tennis

3-0 today
2-0 yesterday

Tennis YTD 26-19-4 (+18.72 Units)

NBA YTD 12-4-1 (+11.06 Units)

**Frisco** · 11-07-12, 05:12 PM

When are you going to start charging??

**Sam_Hawkins** · 11-07-12, 05:13 PM

Berdych ressurected big time in third, congrats to ur pick, I went with djokovic/berdych parlay, won around 4 units

**usfunca** · 11-07-12, 05:19 PM

Nice work on the tennis today. Tailing your entire NBA card. Here's to a good night!

**sando** · 11-07-12, 05:21 PM

Originally posted by Frisco

When are you going to start charging??

Haha I'm not good enough to go tout mate, nor would I anyway, fukc that, I'm just happy if we can all make some money and smash the books.

"Berdych ressurected big time in third, congrats to ur pick, I went with djokovic/berdych parlay, won around 4 units"

Good work!

**J.M.A.** · 11-07-12, 05:22 PM

Props to you Sando!!! Blindly tailed Tennis today and cashed!

Looking forward to NBA tonight!!

**usfunca** · 11-07-12, 05:37 PM

Do you still like the over on the Clippers/Spurs at 202.5/203? That's the only one I'm having trouble finding. I'm inclined to keep on it at 203. What do you think?

**sando** · 11-07-12, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by usfunca

Do you still like the over on the Clippers/Spurs at 202.5/203? That's the only one I'm having trouble finding. I'm inclined to keep on it at 203. What do you think?

Mate the over has steadily been rising from 199 to 202.5, make of that what you will(smart money? public money?) but if you choose to play it I'd maybe go a smaller bet, value is slowly being squeezed out of the line as the money comes in

**usfunca** · 11-07-12, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by sando

Mate the over has steadily been rising from 199 to 202.5, make of that what you will(smart money? public money?) but if you choose to play it I'd maybe go a smaller bet, value is slowly being squeezed out of the line as the money comes in

Yeah I was watching it climb earlier. Think I'll pass. Just wanted to tail the whole card. Good luck tonight!

**gaebiskon** · 11-07-12, 06:54 PM

good job and even better analysis, keep it up, sando!
where did you find the stats such as "tsonga lost 9 in a row when the opposition was top 10"?

**therealdealau** · 11-07-12, 08:16 PM

Thanks for the tennis winners pal, good job. Let's cash the nba today.

**sando** · 11-07-12, 10:33 PM

What a frustrating start to the NBA card. We are 3-1-1 so far yet lost the big Hawks bet by the hook (0.5) and pushed on the Griz total what should have been easy money. Gotta love no D last 5 minutes in blow outs...

**Semper Fidelis** · 11-08-12, 12:02 AM

Don't think I've actually said it yet, just had to come in here and congratulate you! You're doing amazing so far, I definitely look forward to your picks every day! Can't wait to see the tennis picks tomorrow. I'm really liking Fed and Potro in straights, just like EP said. Don't know that I'll parlay them together, still waiting to see what you and the other tennis gurus have to say. Maybe the Under would be a better wager for the two matches? The only thing that scares me with the totals is a 7-5 or worse, 7-6 tiebreaker which almost kills the under.

**CollegePro** · 11-08-12, 12:57 AM

hey Sando, which one are you betting on ferrer game tomorrow?

**SiMON2g** · 11-08-12, 01:04 AM

Tailed you last night on Joker, good stuff mate!

Anything tonight?

**J.M.A.** · 11-08-12, 01:04 AM

Let's get another couple winners going!! I had some bad beats tonight need to recover fukk.

**sando** · 11-08-12, 01:12 AM

NBA

5-4-1 today

What a frustrating day in the NBA, I had big hopes for this card, and with the big bet on the Hawks just failing to cover by a 'hook' and the Griz under pushing (looked great halfway through the 4th) as well as another pathetic display from the lakers (what was i thinking - m/l?), we should probably be happy to actually finish the day up 0.63 units (those that tailed every play) going 5-4-1 in the process.

Tennis
3-0 today
2-0 yesterday

Tennis YTD 26-19-4 (+18.72 Units)

NBA YTD 17-8-2 (+11.69 Units)

**sando** · 11-08-12, 01:16 AM

Originally posted by SiMON2g

Tailed you last night on Joker, good stuff mate!

Anything tonight?

Anytime mate! About to start work on the tennis, don't want to rush anything and ruin our hot streak, so got a bit of research to do, have to check back a bit later sorry mate.

ps - where in Aus?

**sando** · 11-08-12, 01:17 AM

Originally posted by Semper Fidelis

Don't think I've actually said it yet, just had to come in here and congratulate you! You're doing amazing so far, I definitely look forward to your picks every day! Can't wait to see the tennis picks tomorrow. I'm really liking Fed and Potro in straights, just like EP said. Don't know that I'll parlay them together, still waiting to see what you and the other tennis gurus have to say. Maybe the Under would be a better wager for the two matches? The only thing that scares me with the totals is a 7-5 or worse, 7-6 tiebreaker which almost kills the under.

Thank you sir for the positive feedback, been flat out with the nba today, about to start work on the tennis in a bit...

**hawley** · 11-08-12, 01:20 AM

Any day finishing in +units is a good day as far as I am concerned.

Do it for the season and you are looking at a nice profit

**sando** · 11-08-12, 01:21 AM

Originally posted by hawley

Any day finishing in +units is a good day as far as I am concerned.

Do it for the season and you are looking at a nice profit

Thanks mate. Appreciate any advice I can get from a vet such as yourself...

**SiMON2g** · 11-08-12, 01:30 AM

Originally posted by sando

Anytime mate! About to start work on the tennis, don't want to rush anything and ruin our hot streak, so got a bit of research to do, have to check back a bit later sorry mate.

ps - where in Aus?

Good stuff bud, keep it up. Good to see ya put in some hard yards!

Melbourne mate, yourself?

**usfunca** · 11-08-12, 01:46 AM

sando, all in all not too bad. I'm shocked the Lakers came up as poorly as they did. Brutal. Was nice to see the Raptors actually come out of nowhere to cover though. Better luck tomorrow.

**sando** · 11-08-12, 04:28 AM

Ok tennis time...

ATP World Tour Finals

Federer v Ferrer

Let's start with some crazy stats.

-Career H2H Federer 14-0 Ferrer
-Career sets Federer 29-3 Ferrer

Tennis is a game of match up's, style v style, a classic example of this is the period in the not too distant past when Federer was getting owned by Nadal, who himself was getting beaten consistently by Djokovic, and yet the Djoker was still regularly loosing to Fed. Obviously from the above stats you can see that Ferrer's style does not match up well with the fed-ex. Fed is a shot maker, he can create angles and finish points from anywhere on the court. He doesn't have the power of a Berdych or Nadal but that is not neccasary when you strike the ball as crisply as fed does. He is also a master of the almost forgotten art of serve/volley. Ferrer is super fit, moves well and likes to hustle his opponents, especially the big hitters, into making errors or playing for the edges as they tire and/or get frustrated at his innate ability to keep the ball in play. Fed doesn't need to try and hit through Ferrer as he has so many weapons at his disposal and such an arsenal of "point finishing" shots that Ferrer's game plan inevitably falls short against the great man.

Make no mistake about it, Fed is still the world's premier Indoor hard court player and it is not even close. The man has made the final of his last 6 indoor tourney's and has won 5 of them with the only loss Coming in Basel 2 weeks ago against Del Potro in 3, yet that match could easily have gone either way.

Having said all that Ferrer is truly playing at the top of his game and Fed is past his best (albeit a very slow decline). I don't like the 4.5 line either way (+ or -) and think the books got it spot on this time. I propose a potentially safer wager.

Federer 2-0 -160 (Pinnacle) 3 Units

Over 21.5 +102 (Pinnacle) 2 Units

Ok so we are laying a lot of juice on the 2-0 sets, but the over is great insurance

There are a few scenarios where we can cash both these bets, although the over is a partial hedge against the 2-0, yet we would have to be awfully unlucky to loose both.

Ex. Winning scores 7-5 6-4, 7-6 6-3. *the way Ferrer is playing ATM I have no problem believing he can hold to 6 just once in 2 sets and then as long as he is not broken twice in the other set, over will cash.

The only way I see us loosing both bets is Ferrer winning in straight sets - not gonna happen, otherwise we would need a score line of 6-1 1-6 6-1, yeah right.

This is a very conservative way to play this match-up and I am sorry if my picks disappoint but personally I do not see any value in the 4.5 game line and using this strategy we (hopefully) should win both for a nice profit or go 1-1 for a very small loss.

**Frisco** · 11-08-12, 08:54 AM

Unfortunately my over is 21 @ -125 which makes this play a little less appealing. gl

**Dmoneytx** · 11-08-12, 09:04 AM

Originally posted by sando

Federer 2-0 -160 (Pinnacle) 3 Units

Over 21.5 +102 (Pinnacle) 2 Units

I think it is going to be really tough to cash both of these today. You basically need Ferrer to almost win a set, but doesn't, then the other set has to be fairly close as well. If Fed gets an early break in either set, I can't see one set being super close. I just think it will be hard to profit on these two plays. I do wish you luck though!

That is why I went with a parlay & just took Fed and Del Po. I can't see either of these players losing & I added one soccer ML that I can't see losing at all. BOL today, Vamos Fed!!! Hoping for a good start

**europe_baller** · 11-08-12, 09:52 AM

tennis..

I am from Serbia and closely follow Djokovic .. Put $150 yesterday on him.. Reading posts here i first put 50 and then added another $100.. So good job.. Missed lakers over last night in parlay ..Hit memphis, denver and suns .. skipped on tennis today for now..i will post my nba picks for tonight..doing pretty good..cashed out 5 times on sunday monday and tuesday..

**Frisco** · 11-08-12, 10:04 AM

Cashed Federer to win 1st set -220. Put a play on Ferrer +2.5 games at even $$

**Dmoneytx** · 11-08-12, 10:10 AM

Originally posted by Frisco

Cashed Federer to win 1st set -220. Put a play on Ferrer +2.5 games at even $$

Thought I read that you were on Ferrer, hmmmmm........

And now you have Ferrer only plus 2.5 games??? That does not seem like a good bet to me since he lost the first set by 2 games.

**Frisco** · 11-08-12, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by Dmoneytx

Thought I read that you were on Ferrer, hmmmmm........

And now you have Ferrer only plus 2.5 games??? That does not seem like a good bet to me since he lost the first set by 2 games.

Lol meant to type 4.5. I see it going Federer 6-4 6-4 like their last result. Ferrer +2.5 games would have been a terrible bet when he's already down 2!!

**Frisco** · 11-08-12, 10:21 AM

Might play under 22.5 games that they have up now -115. virtually the same bet as Federer to win 2nd set (-220) but better payout. As long as it doesn't go 7-6 it's a winner.

**FredMadison** · 11-08-12, 10:59 AM

Federer 2-0 -160 (Pinnacle) 3 Units

Over 21.5 +102 (Pinnacle) 2 Units

Sando, you're the man. Thanks!