Sando's All Sports (NBA, AFL, NRL)

[sando]

The line on my side was at 196.5 before tipoff?

Re-read the comment mate. I said in-play. At pinnacle ATS and O/U lines are being put up and adjusted accordingly at every time-out and break.



NBA

Another great start and a poor finish. After a brief post game analysis I don't think there were any bad picks today, just some of the cards didn't fall our way. It happens and we'll move on to tommorow, have a big play that I will be putting out within an hour so we can get the best lines.

3-3 Today in the NBA +0.56 Units

NBA YTD 79-52-6 (+36.76 Units) 60.3%

(NBA ATS/ML 60-39-4 YTD) 60.6%

(NBA totals 19-13-2 YTD) 59.38%


All time SBR Picks
Tennis 31-25-4 (+17.16 Units)
Rugby Union 7-7 (+2.97 Units)
Rugby Sevens 14-12-1 (+0.62 Units)
MLB 4-1
MMA 2-0

*Above record based on picks posted at SBR forum.

**All m/l picks are almost always dogs. I will hardly ever play a favorite at the m/l and if I do it is no worse than -115.

[sando]

NBA

Phoenix @ NY

Knicks -10 (-109 Sportingbet) 3x


*I have this line set at -12 and I can guarantee you it won't last . Already at -112 at Pinnacle. You will need to get in fast to get the -10.

So why 3 units? Here's something to ponder until I get a chance to do a proper write-up.

Suns rather poor ATS team in recent times.
5-15 last 20 games
3-8 last 11 road games
And 1-5 last 6 against strong home teams with winning records (i.e Knicks)
Knicks on the other hand are a dominant ATS team in recent times, I could throw stat after stat at you but the most important is that the Knicks have covered ATS in every home game played this season with the closest result being a 10 point win over Dalas when they were giving up 7 (from memory)? If the Knicks are beating defensive minded teams like Indy by double digits then what do you think they could do to a team like Phoenix who likes to push the pace allowing easy buckets to guys like Dragic and Brown in the paint and/or spreading the floor for their army of mid range and perimeter scorers. This could play right into NY's hands, they will have no problem if Phoenix chose to push the pace and if not will likely be doing so themselves. I can't see either looking to slow this game down. Dragic can shoot over or go around Felton with his extra height and deceptive speed off the dribble and Felton also unlikely to be troubled by Dragic on the defensive end where he has a genuine strength advantage and would not be surprised to see him even taking him into the post and working him over a bit down there at times. Plenty of mid-matches on both sides and I can see Scola and Mortis getting plenty of points at PF position against the smaller Carmello who prefers to focus his energy on the offensive end is unlikely to battle Scola down low where Scola is comfortable and would likely look to drag Scola or Morris away from the basket where he has a multitude of ways he can hurt them as well as freeing up space for guys like Smith and Felton to get to the ring easier. Say at home on Carmello and he will sink free jumpers all day. Put Beasley on him and you are in big trouble. Beasley is like a poor man's Carmello, a gifted scorer with a sweet J who doesn't really like to play D, the main difference being Carmello has shown in the past he is more than capable of locking someone down if he could actually be bothered putting in the effort. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see these two go head to head and just light things up also adding to the likelihood of the over hitting. Also if JR is on then the Suns are in trouble as they don't have a guard who can come close to stopping him, although on the flip side a hot Shannon Brown is fast enough and strong enough to abuse JR and most of the Knicks guards on the offensive end as well. So many players on both sides who are capable of getting hot and putting up points in bunches. Also not concerned with people who are thinking average teams comes into MSG and plays hard whereas good team just cruises expecting an easy win. When have the Knicks done that this season? Their is a renewed energy in NY, the attitude of Carmello, the fans, the rest of the team, it's all positive. The boys are balling no matter who they play and playing some surprisingly intense D as well and no matter the opponent. Look what happened to Detroit and Washington, the two weakest teams the Knicks have played at home and yet the two biggest wins. They are not taking it easy on anyone. This is a team on a mission in NY this season and while 'sharp' bettors are always looking for 'let down spots' I personally am not concerned as the Knicks after a blistering 8-1 start then lost 3 of the next 4 before their two recent blow out wins over the Wiz and Pistons. So are they really going to take the foot of the gas against an always dangerous Suns team loaded with scorers, now that they are starting to build a new little win streak. The Knicks haven't played like that once this season so why should we expect that to start now? Phoenix giving up a league worst 102.5 points per game and have been poor on the road this season, don't see how things get any easier for them today, more likely they will just want to get this game over with and head home (where they have been a lot better) after a long 5 game road trip, especially if they go down big early which is a very genuine possibility with the Knickerbocker's getting out to some lightning starts. They are a great front running team and I expect them to score in excess of 105+ and would not be suprised to see them put on 120 here, sounds crazy i know.

Knickerbocker's home game's this season.

Miami W by 20
Philadelphia W by 16
Dallas Wby 10
Indiana W by 12
Detroit by W21
Washington W by 21



NBA Total of the Day

Phoenix @ NY

Over 200.5 (-105 Pinnacle) 1.5x

[gopolks]

-10 seems a risk.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

GL man,

All my books have moved to -10.5 already.

I ended up taking Knicks 11+ for $2.01 @ Sportsbet.

[h3da]

Luxbet offering -10 but only 1.83

[radostin.dimi]

Like it !

[bassytelfair]

I am taking the total man ! I think its a nice pick ) Thanks and good luck today !
BTW, what u think about total in LA game ? 200.5 o\u ?

[sando]

I am taking the total man ! I think its a nice pick ) Thanks and good luck today !
BTW, what u think about total in LA game ? 200.5 o\u ?

Like most people my initial lean would be towards the over however then you have to ask yourself where are the Magic's points going to cone from? Their top scorer is Big Baby and he gives up 3-4 inches to Gasol. While he is physical stronger than Pau if he starts backing him down in the post then Howard should be there to lend a hand and/or switch as Davis will potentially struggle to find ways to score on Howard and Gasol capable of guarding Vucevic. Also Nelson is another big out that will hurt Orlando's offensive output. Lakers could get their 110 points here and still not cash the over. Lakers are a nightmare for O/U punters lately anyway. Jeckyl and Hyde.

Love the avatar. Old school NBA.

[Eagles27]

Sando, whats your reasoning for the over on the knicks game? just curious, are you expecting a 120-100 type game? for some reason I am seeing a 100-87 type of game (in favor of knicks).

[sando]

Sando, whats your reasoning for the over on the knicks game? just curious, are you expecting a 120-100 type game? for some reason I am seeing a 100-87 type of game (in favor of knicks).

Well at least your prediction includes us covering the -10, that's a good start haha. Seriously though I'm about to do analysis for both picks. Half hour.

[Eagles27]

Well at least your prediction includes us covering the -10, that's a good start haha. Seriously though I'm about to do analysis for both picks. Half hour.

Yea, I think I might have over thought this one. I had it at -10, then thought some more, went to -10.5, then thought more and saw it jump to -11.5 and still took the bet. Something tells me I am going to regret doing that lol. I didnt want to buy points in-case it ended up being a 100-93 type of game, what concerns me here is a back door cover type of scenario. But for the life of me, I cant see the suns getting to a hundred (which kind of worries me on the spread). Anyway, as you can see I thought way too much about this one (which is never a good sign for me).

[usfunca]

Where do you like the Knicks until? It's at -11 right now and probably climbing.

[Eagles27]

Where do you like the Knicks until? It's at -11 right now and probably climbing.

Damn, my local stiffed me and I got it at 11.5 :-/ lol I honestly think it will be a 105-93 final score (or around there). But I couldn't bring my-self to buy any points so I will probably get burned buy a point or something (just my input).

[daimoshokage]

Link is not working-Removed

[sando]

Last 2 home games Knicks have averaged 114.5 points against better defensive teams than the Suns. Would not be surprised to see the Knicks put on 120 today so even if the Suns only put on 85ish the over would still cover. I am not for a second suggesting the Knicks win by 30+ just saying that even if the Suns do struggle to put up points the over can still cash from a Knicks offensive explosion? IMO these two bets bounce of each nicely and think it will be difficult to lose them both. If say the Suns score enough to cover ATS then surely a Knicks team who will score in excess of 100+ against the leagues worst opponent's ppg team (102.5) will then at least cover the over minimising our losses on a large 3x play.

[sando]

...

[Eagles27]

Last 2 home games Knicks have averaged 114.5 points against better defensive teams than the Suns. Would not be surprised to see the Knicks put on 120 today so even if the Suns only put on 85ish the over would still cover. I am not for a second suggesting the Knicks win by 30+ just saying that even if the Suns do struggle to put up points the over can still cash from a Knicks offensive explosion? IMO these two bets bounce of each nicely and think it will be difficult to lose them both. If say the Suns score enough to cover ATS then surely a Knicks team who will score in excess of 100+ against the leagues worst opponent's ppg team (102.5) will then at least cover the over minimising our losses on a large 3x play.

Makes sense, im hoping for the 120-85ish finish though lol its too early in the day to be sweating.

[usfunca]

My locals already moved to -12, and the Total line has gone against us to 198.

[Eagles27]

My locals already moved to -12, and the Total line has gone against us to 198.

Yea, thats probably where it should have opened (-12). Funny how much 1 or 2 points changes your perception on a bet. I have no idea why I am sweating this one. Initially when I saw the line I was all over the knicks, now that I have it at 11.5 im doubting and regreting

[sando]

"Square" "Sharp" "Steam" "Public play" blah blah blah - People get so hung on on not wanting to be a "square" not wanting to be on the same side as the public - give a fukc about those sorts of things or how I am perceived? - NO. All I care about is winning and making money in regards to gambling. Don't care if I do 50 plays in a row that are all Lakers and Heat ATS as long as we can hit 60% on those plays.

Hey Daimo when are you gonna release your next SCS play? 100% rock solid fade material. If you released those everyday I wouldn't even bother to put in the work handicapping games, I would just ride with you big fella.

[Eagles27]

Nice, good start. Knicks came to play, lets hope this energy keeps up.

[nba2013]

NBA

Phoenix @ NY

Knicks -10 (-109 Sportingbet) 3x


*I have this line set at -12 and I can guarantee you it won't last . Already at -112 at Pinnacle. You will need to get in fast to get the -10.

So why 3 units? Here's something to ponder until I get a chance to do a proper write-up.

Suns rather poor ATS team in recent times.
5-15 last 20 games
3-8 last 11 road games
And 1-5 last 6 against strong home teams with winning records (i.e Knicks)
Knicks on the other hand are a dominant ATS team in recent times, I could throw stat after stat at you but the most important is that the Knicks have covered ATS in every home game played this season with the closest result being a 10 point win over Dalas when they were giving up 7 (from memory)? If the Knicks are beating defensive minded teams like Indy by double digits then what do you think they could do to a team like Phoenix who likes to push the pace allowing easy buckets to guys like Dragic and Brown in the paint and/or spreading the floor for their army of mid range and perimeter scorers. This could play right into NY's hands, they will have no problem if Phoenix chose to push the pace and if not will likely be doing so themselves. I can't see either looking to slow this game down. Dragic can shoot over or go around Felton with his extra height and deceptive speed off the dribble and Felton also unlikely to be troubled by Dragic on the defensive end where he has a genuine strength advantage and would not be surprised to see him even taking him into the post and working him over a bit down there at times. Plenty of mid-matches on both sides and I can see Scola and Mortis getting plenty of points at PF position against the smaller Carmello who prefers to focus his energy on the offensive end is unlikely to battle Scola down low where Scola is comfortable and would likely look to drag Scola or Morris away from the basket where he has a multitude of ways he can hurt them as well as freeing up space for guys like Smith and Felton to get to the ring easier. Say at home on Carmello and he will sink free jumpers all day. Put Beasley on him and you are in big trouble. Beasley is like a poor man's Carmello, a gifted scorer with a sweet J who doesn't really like to play D, the main difference being Carmello has shown in the past he is more than capable of locking someone down if he could actually be bothered putting in the effort. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see these two go head to head and just light things up also adding to the likelihood of the over hitting. Also if JR is on then the Suns are in trouble as they don't have a guard who can come close to stopping him, although on the flip side a hot Shannon Brown is fast enough and strong enough to abuse JR and most of the Knicks guards on the offensive end as well. So many players on both sides who are capable of getting hot and putting up points in bunches. Also not concerned with people who are thinking average teams comes into MSG and plays hard whereas good team just cruises expecting an easy win. When have the Knicks done that this season? Their is a renewed energy in NY, the attitude of Carmello, the fans, the rest of the team, it's all positive. The boys are balling no matter who they play and playing some surprisingly intense D as well and no matter the opponent. Look what happened to Detroit and Washington, the two weakest teams the Knicks have played at home and yet the two biggest wins. They are not taking it easy on anyone. This is a team on a mission in NY this season and while 'sharp' bettors are always looking for 'let down spots' I personally am not concerned as the Knicks after a blistering 8-1 start then lost 3 of the next 4 before their two recent blow out wins over the Wiz and Pistons. So are they really going to take the foot of the gas against an always dangerous Suns team loaded with scorers, now that they are starting to build a new little win streak. The Knicks haven't played like that once this season so why should we expect that to start now? Phoenix giving up a league worst 102.5 points per game and have been poor on the road this season, don't see how things get any easier for them today, more likely they will just want to get this game over with and head home (where they have been a lot better) after a long 5 game road trip, especially if they go down big early which is a very genuine possibility with the Knickerbocker's getting out to some lightning starts. They are a great front running team and I expect them to score in excess of 105+ and would not be suprised to see them put on 120 here, sounds crazy i know.

Knickerbocker's home game's this season.

Miami W by 20
Philadelphia W by 16
Dallas Wby 10
Indiana W by 12
Detroit by W21
Washington W by 21



NBA Total of the Day

Phoenix @ NY

Over 200.5 (-105 Pinnacle) 1.5x

Sando ur the man!
I saw reals post an then urs and knew ny would get the -10.5 easy.
Have 5k sitting on ny -10.5
i think were gona smash!!!

[Eagles27]

ugh.. all these damn three ball attempts from the knicks are letting the suns back into the game

[Eagles27]

Damn it sheed.. now a man short (3 point play) and terrible way to end the 1st.

[nba2013]

Need carmelo on the court and stop putting up bricks
Wallace has lost it lol
does it once a year.
Plenty of time to go

[nba2013]

Novac finally hit a 3 bout fuckin time!!
shooting bricks

[Eagles27]

Novac finally hit a 3 bout fuckin time!!
shooting bricks

Right on cue, great close to the 1H, now we need a strong 3rd quarter coming out the half.

[sando]

Was not impressed with the Knickerbokers at all the 1st half and yet they are up by 17. I don't even understand how that is possible? Phoenix was rather poor more than NY being good, however maybe 'Sheeds ejection wasn't all bad as this rookie Copeland has got game. The hell have they been hiding ths kid??

[nba2013]

Great pick sando.
Think where safe with -10.5
Knicks wont lose any of the last 2 quaters.
I hope they pile on the points for ya over mate.
Knicks have played pretty pore missed alot of shots

[wguan2]

[QUOTE=nba2013;16983548]Great pick sando.
Think where safe with -10.5
Knicks wont lose any of the last 2 quaters.
I hope they pile on the points for ya over mate.
Knicks have played pretty pore missed alot of shots[/b]

If there is one thing you should know about the nba, it's to never celebrate early. Ever.

[Eagles27]

[QUOTE=wguan2;16983726]

Great pick sando.
Think where safe with -10.5
Knicks wont lose any of the last 2 quaters.
I hope they pile on the points for ya over mate.
Knicks have played pretty pore missed alot of shots[/b]

If there is one thing you should know about the nba, it's to never celebrate early. Ever.

I was about to say, dont jinx! lol

[Dexter]

knicks blowing it

[Eagles27]

knicks blowing it

I already knew this was going to happen as soon as I placed my bet. 10 might still cover, but I can just picture 11.5 not covering because of some last min layup or some crap.

[ShotgunRua]

I took 10.5, this is tense!

[wguan2]

Well that was brutal