anyone think the sharks win tonight? $2.8
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Lines are out for NRL Finals Week 1. Sportsbet/Centrebet only really seem to differ on the sharks game where the line is set at 4.5 at sportsbet (edit: line has gone to 3.5 already), the rest of the odds below are from centrebet.
South Sydney 1.8 (-1.5) 1.91 Melbourne 2.02 (+1.5) 1.91 Cronulla 1.7 (-2.5) 1.90 North Qld 2.15 (+2.5) 1.90 Sydney 1.7 (-2.5) 1.91 Manly 2.15 (+2.5) 1.91 Canterbury 1.55 (-4.5) 1.90 Newcastle 2.45 (+4.5) 1.90 Comment -
Haven't worked out the results for the weekend yet, however my 1 AFL play was a complete disaster, don’t know if I underestimated Port or overestimated the Pies, all I do know is that I lost 4 units, leaving the season total at a very disappointing +5.5 units.
An ok week in NRL, I guess I shouldn’t feel to down as finished up about +2.3 units (including the Roosters minor premiership future which cashed), or for those that never played the Roosters future but tailed the w/e plays would have finished up about half a unit. That’s what I get for making a play on the Rabbitohs. I so very rarely look to get out of a play once I have committed to it (Roosters future) and yet I (like many others) fell for the never ending hype that surrounds the bunnies and hence paid the price.
Had my worst live trading weekend in probably a year, finishing down about 10 units and struggled not to go on tilt (which is something I thought was long behind me). Was unsure of myself and forced plays that weren't there, things that I just don't do. If it wasn’t for raping the totals on the last two NRL games of the round I would have finished down probably 15 units, i.e a shitload of cash. Anyway it would appear I’m burnt out and need a break. I can’t bring myself to put much effort into the ITM cup, I barely traded through the US open and I’m pretty much over the AFL season, which whilst still a “winning” season is also the worst I’ve had in a sport I consider to be my best.
Ironically I got a bit carried away on twitter and decided to declare myself “the best NRL handicapper in Australia” like a god damn tout and then of course had a pretty average w/e. God knows what I was thinking, I’m actually quite humble in general (as those here that know me would agree). Anyway I guess I got what I deserved...
Probably won’t be posting much in the immediate future, need to relax and get fresh for the NBA season. Had two winning season’s in a row in NBA and planning on another big season.
Do have some early plays for the NRL/AFL finals so will post those now. Taking a chance making plays so early in the week, however I have examined the injury lists and can otherwise be safe in the knowledge that coaches don’t play any “selection games” come finals time. The best teams that can be fielded, will be fielded - always. Also there is so much betting activity on the finals that lines move fast and hard often can leave little “value” come Thursday afternoon when teams are released.
NRL
Cowboys@ Sharks
3*Cowboys m/l ($2.20 Centrebet)
Cowboys the hottest team in the NRL by far. Matt Scott should be back giving their pack a massive boost to counter the awesome Sharks pack that is by far their strongest asset, however the potential loss of Fifita is massive, who has been struggling with a calf complaint for 6 weeks and re-aggravated it against the Raiders after only 22 minutes (Idiot coach Flanagan for not giving him the week off in a basically meaningless game). He tweeted today that he will be good to go, and he is as tough as they come, however there is no magic spray that will bring him back to 100% in 6 days. Cowboy’s just hammered the Sharks only a week ago at Shark Park where Cronulla was 8-2 this year before the Cowboys showed up. This is a Cronulla home game but will be played at the SFS. The Coybows have shown lately that they can win anywhere with their two away wins in this 6 game winning streak being by an average of 23 points over the Sharks and Panthers. Cronulla will have Carney back, who is a fantastic playmaker, however the Cowboys have JT who is even better, and now also a back in form Bowen, giving them 2 dynamic playmakers who typically set up on opposite sides of the ruck (especially in the red zone) to keep the opposition defence guessing.
This price will continue to drop and you will unlikely be able to get better than $1.90 -$2.00 on the Cowboys by game time.
Canterbury v Newcastle
2.5* Bulldogs -4 ($1.91 Bet365)
1.5* Over40 ($1.91 Bet365)
Probably write some analysis later.
The -4 will be gone within 24 hours and the line will probably settle around -6 by game time.
AFL
Geelong v Port Adelaide
2* Geelong -26.5 ($1.92 Sportsbet)
The Cats in these type of “bounce back” situations are a scary proposition indeed.
This line will continue moving out and will settle possibly as high as -30 or worse by game time.Comment -
I'm not sure the line movement will be as significant in the Sharks/Cowboys match as you are anticipating, nothing wrong with the odds you've taken though. Again, not sure how much credence to put into the most recent match up between these two after Sharks were coming off such a huge performance, they looked a little flat to me. I want to find the Cowboys but that first half against Easts from Sharks remains in my mind, it was such an impressive showing I feel like I should rate them favorite on that basis alone. Can that forward pack turn it on under pressure or was that an arbitration. Kostjasyn is an awful hooker, would really help me find Cowboys if Thompson didn't get injured.
Agree with the line movement for Dogs/Knights, I've taken a unit at -4 even though I am really considering taking Knights, can always come back over the top at +6. 2012 Dogs will blow them off the field but they've been very average and unmotivated. Dogs have a big advantage in the forwards, size and power but Knights backline looks superior and they've clicked into gear. Can possibly substitute some go forward out of the backs earlier in the set. When Hasler hasn't had his teams in top form they've gone out in straight sets, another factor I'm considering.
Excuse my waffling, just trying to suss these games out a little better, had everything lined up for Dogs/Cows and Sharks/Knights.Comment -
I'm glad you're bullish on the Bulldogs.
However, which Dogs team turns up?
The Knights have beaten them twice this season already.
Is Hasler purposely trying to get teams to underestimate them? I highly doubt you'd be playing those games at this stage of the season.
Apart from Reynolds, they had nothing in attack last week and realistically, what changes this week?
Barba clearly doesn't want to be there and I'd question his position in the team at the moment.... There is obviously some bad blood between some players and himself and he really looked disinterested and going through the motions last start.
Eastwood back is a big in and I think Pritchard is back from suspension too.
Tony Williams really needs to fire in this series if they are to be realistic contenders.Comment -
I have the same concerns i mentioned in my thread regarding the bulldogs and iam a dogs fan. knights is the value bet of the round and everything you mentioned are spot on. i would wait at least to see final team lists before betting on this as i highly doubt line will move in favour of dogsComment -
Not sure if people have noticed but sportsbet are running a promotion for the first round of the finals where if your team loses by 1-10 on a head to head bet you get refunded in cash. Great promotion for games that you think will be quite close. Bookmaker also has one whereby if your team scores 3 or more tries and loses you get your bet refunded (good for if you think defence won't be too tight.)Comment -
knights into 2.30 at luxbet and storm into 1.90 (matched evenly with souths)Comment -
Working on a Constellation Cup preview for the game on Sunday.
Aus V NZ , netball for the uneducated
Will post once lines become availableComment -
The Sharks have some big ins for this game.
Gallen, Graham, Carney, Bukuya....
I think the Sharkies have a slightly better forward pack and established dummy halves.
This is the game where the lack of a quality hooker will catch up with the Cowboys - boy how they miss Segeyaro.Comment -
Adding...
AFL
Swans v Carlton
2* Swans 1st Quarter -4.5 ($1.90 Sportsbet)
My favourite 1st quarter bet of the season, however due to the shorter span involved in a 1 quarter bet (30 minutes) and hence higher possible variance in the result, can't commit to more than 2 units. Regardless there are many reasons to like the Swans here, mainly because they are an excellent 1st quarter team, they will be well rested coming off an 8 day break (6 days for the Blues who played a very physical game against the Tigers) and most importantly because they were so terrible and so un-Swans like in the last quarter against the Hawks that they will no doubt be chomping at the bit to get this game underway.
Geelong v Port
1.25* Geelong 1st Half -12.5 ($1.90 Sportsbet) *risking 1.25 units to win 1
This bet also acts as insurance against a big 4th Quarter/2nd Half effort from the Power, which could possibly jeopardise a Geelong cover (-26.5) although I remain confident in both bets cashing.
NRL
Roosters v Sea Eagles
1.5* Roosters -1.5 ($2.01 Pinnacle)
Cowboys @ Sharks
1.1* Over 38 ($1.90 Bet365)
Rabbitohs v Storm
Lean towards the under 35.5. Last 8 games played between the two sides have all been comfortable unders.
**If your unit size is $100 or less than you should check out the various promotions available in AFL & NRL at Centrebet, Sportingbet and Sportsbet this week. Some very generous promotions being offered particularly in NRL. (I say that because max bonus on any promo is $100, so these sorts of promos are great for guys with smaller bankrolls to help build your roll). Warning - Do not play one side of an NRL game at Centrebet and the other side at Sportingbet using the NRL promo's. These are basically the exact same company and they could potentially fukc you if you hit both. If you want to play both sides take one side at Sportsbet and the other at Centrebet or Sportingbet (depending on which promo you like better)
***Just opened my newest account with Bookmaker.com.au - Very impressed with what I have seen so far. Excellent customer service, great website (both visually and navigation) and they also gave me $400 in free bets (100% deposit match up to a maximum of $400). No live betting as of yet (except for at HT).Comment -
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ladbrokes have just opened up an aussie website too, if anyone is keen i'd love to refer them. you get 100% deposit match upto 300(250 without referral) and after you've wagered $200 i get $100 which is pretty sweet!Comment -
Hey guys, hope someone jumped on this one last week. While RW didn't have an explosive game, still had the resolve to pull it through, and the Seahawks defense made a serious statement as anticipated.
Bets I like this week:
Ravens -6 (@1.86 Bet 365) - I bought the extra half point. I think the Ravens win by 6 or more in this game, and I don't want to get burned by the hook. Other leans I like in that game are Jordan Cameron to score a TD - though player props are not out in my book yet.
Panthers -3 (@2.00 bet365) - Buffalo usually has a great start to the year (as they did against the Patriots). I, however, don't think the Patriots are the powerhouse of the past (at least with Gronk out) and the Bills performance will not seem as spectacular this week. Cam Newton will be ready to have a big game after getting stymied by the Seahawks.
- Seahawks vs. 49ers - such a tough game to call. Seahawks undefeated last year in Seattle (they don't call it the 13th man for nothing) - 49ers looking to make a statement to their division rival. I am going to wait to make a live wager on this game - think this game will be decided by a very close score and if a team runs up early, will try to get a live bet in.
BOL to everyone.Comment -
I can only see a $100 deposit bonus on bookmaker. How do you get $400
Looks like a particularly vanilla book with ordinary lines, but I will bonus whore them for $400 if that is on offer. These kind of books always have soft lines, but I can see my time there being short lived.
Ladbrokes bought bookmaker.com.au. It explains why they cut off Aussie customers not long ago.
Just look at the two sites side by side. They are identical.
We are now being inundated with vanilla books over here... probably a good thing overall.Comment -
my homepage is different, does that say they give you $200 in bonus bets if you deposit $100? thats awesome if so,Comment -
Yeah, don't get it. CBF bonus whoring for $100. This is the home page i get
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Google bookmaker au bonus 400. The first result that comes up has a direct link that says $400 free
Worked for me. Signed up & already liking the site. They verified my details & card in no time. Thanks Sando for the heads up.
I'm in NSW.Last edited by MrXYZ; 09-12-13, 06:41 AM.Comment -
hmm i believed that SA and vic had similair laws that prohibit promo's like this. Please let me know if this has changed?Comment -
you can try using SP500 to get $500 free bets with bm.com.auComment -
Can vouch for Bookmaker au, everything is great except for the Juice and lack of options on most American Sports.Comment -
im just double checking with the weekendhustle200 code you get a $200 bonus bet with only a $100 deposit?Comment -
Guys just to clarify the issues that some are having with Bookmaker, If you are from selected states SA, VIC etc, the website picks up your IP address and the home page automatically only shows a $100 free bet. I had to go through google by searching "bookmaker bonus bet" the very first search result redirects you to a page where you can get up to $400 using the code BMCODE400. Hope this helps
Great find SandoComment -
Waiting on some final lines before posting my tips.Comment -
I'll preface this writeup with this comment: Although confident with these tips it is not the ANZ Champs so don't bet them as hard as you would an ANZ Champ tip!
Constellation Cup Game 1
AUS (+3.5) @ NZ
Additional Small play: AUS by 1-10 goals @ $3.00
Australia is currently on a four game losing streak having lost all their games in their last series versus England.
In the last three series AUS and NZ have played, the away team has won the opening game.
New Zealand is the current holder of the Constellation Cup winning the last series 2-1. NZ won the first two games with AUS winning the last by 6 goals. Four players were rested for this last match, Corletto, Cox, Gerrard, and Von Bertouch.
Australia squad has four changes since their last Cup meeting: Corletto, Cox, Gerrard, and Von Bertouch.
The teams will not be confirmed until the morning of the game but it is fairly easy to predict the starting lineups. The only question is if Thwaites or Bassett starts at GS. I’d be more confident if Thwaites does as she has more experience against the NZ defenders.
The Kiwis have had some problems due to flight delays in assembling for the game, spending time in airports instead of on the practice court, meaning the coach and several players missed some critical practice time. The Aussies will be stung by their recent record and I see them performing competitively against the Kiwis.
Aussies rated to win by 2 goals.Comment -
Thanks for the write up Rabbitbrew, I just noticed in the odds that New Zealand are 1.52 to win the first game, yet at other bookmakers the odds to win the whole series are set at 1.80 for Australia and 2 for New Zealand. Any particular reason for this?Comment -
It's a 5 game series with the first two games in NZ and the last three in Oz.Comment
