Leans for Thursday 11/12/08

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    Leans for Thursday 11/12/08
    Without going into it too much at this time, I am going to make this short and sweet. Damn near any line that the linemaker comes up with will be covered by the Pistons. The Warriors are a team in turmoil, with internal sniping no true point guard and very little defensive presence. Take into account that they are the third worst rebounding team in the league allowing a whopping 46.3 rebounds to their opponents on average and a free throw average of 69.5, and you have the makings of a potential blowout playing a team who's makeup is to stop the opposing team from scoring. Detroit only allows a mind boggling 4 made three pointers per game defensively which is second in the league. Detroit are quite the road warriors with a 3-1 ats record on the road.

    The Warriors are a very undisciplined team and with Maggette hobbled by a sore hamstring and Al Harrington being shelved with a mysterious sore back injury, they are also short handed. The heart of the matter is that the players are disgruntled with ownership over the loss of Baron Davis, and Al Harrington's request for a trade over the summer being ignored by management. Stephen Jackson is now getting double teamed more than ever and he is showing signs of frustration.

    The question comes to mind, who is going to stop the Pistons from having a commanding rebounding advantage. WHo is going to contain Iverson, and who is going to chase Rip off of the screens. There is no answer fo Rasheed Wallace down in the block, and Rony Turiaf has problems with Maxiell in the strength department. The mismatches don't stop there. Who in the hell will stop Tayshaun? The line according to my scoring model will likely be Detroit-5.5, but I feel comfortable taking them at 6.5 too. This game will get ugly fast.

    Detroit 1st half -4 (projected)
    Detroit for game-6.5 (projected)


    I was thinking of taking Dallas, but with no line I can't rightly say that without the information. But the Bulls have had major problems guarding Dirk over the years. Coach Carlisle has admitted that Dirk needs to take more shots in the half court sets with Josh Howard hampered with a wrist injury.

    The usual halftime score is Dallas 52.4 and Chicago 45.7, so usually Dallas wins the 1st halves of these contests in the Windy City. After losing to the Lakers in the fashion that they did, I give them the 1st half nod playing out of conference. Chicago usually catches points at home against the Mavs, and they are 2-8 straight up and ats against the Mavs at home. So if the Bulls are favored in this game it would be the first time since 1997 that they have been favored at home against the Mavs. That's 10 years. I am anxiously awaiting the line for this one. Any points given to the Mavs is too many.

    Dallas 1st half
    Dallas for game (if an underdog)
  • Garso
    SBR High Roller
    • 10-27-08
    • 162

    #2
    i'm from the bay area and i have to agree... the gsw looks like a SORRY team... steven jackson at pg? not going to happen, he's getting doubled like crazy, harrington isn't committed, no one is stepping up with the exception of brendan wright...everything has seem to have gone awry, save a last ditch effort to send the game to overtime vs Minn at home, they should've lost that game convincingly... I'll take the points with Detroit here... or maybe I'll just stay away as I can't bring myself to bet against my home team ... lol.....
    Comment
    • wangichu
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 11-07-08
      • 946

      #3
      not to mention that the pistons have a date in LA, and not the good kind. they need to make sure they get this one, because tomorrow night a victory will be a LOT harder to come by. Detroit engine firing on all cylinders.

      DET half/game

      Probably tail you on the mavs 1st half too.

      as for the other game

      Denver beat the cavs by totals of 22 (in denver) and 30 (in cleveland) scoring 122 and 113 respectively... granted the subsequent changes, but denver's playing some good ball this season in light of all the early season changes and 5 points is too many to give a squad that maimed you last year.

      DEN +5.5 (or more)/ML

      that's my take
      Comment
      • Wilforth
        Restricted User
        • 05-10-08
        • 16309

        #4
        Denver ML
        Detroit RL
        Dallas RL 1H
        Comment
        • cocknocker
          Restricted User
          • 11-06-08
          • 8001

          #5
          I don't know Wang,

          The line is doing what it's supposed to do (on the Nuggets/Cavs game) with 72% of the public on the Cavs. If you are going to play that game, I suggest waiting until right before the game and pounding it with a 2 point buy. With the line standing at Cleveland-7 right now, that means you could get the Nuggets at +9, which is over the key number of 8. Cleveland is like the Warriors of last year. They have problems covering large spreads at home, as they always seem to have a scoring lull at the middle to the end of third quarters and the beginning of 4th quarters. With all that said, the moneyline is correct (-300) for a 7 point spread. So watch the moneyline from this point forward, counselor. It cannot dip to anything less than that if the spread is a "strong" 7.

          Yoou can't go into this game without looking to make money on both sides of the fence though, especially with only 3 games on the docket. I do think that they (the Cavs) will go over their posted team total of 52 in the 1st half. It's just their synergy. The Cavs scoring is up a bit this year, and Denver is a jump shooting team, which translates into rebounds and more shot attempts. Denver allows 98 points per game on the road. LeBron like sto show out when Carmelo is in town!
          Comment
          • cocknocker
            Restricted User
            • 11-06-08
            • 8001

            #6
            The line is in on Greek.com, and Detroit is a 4 point favorite, i am pounding it right now for the game. The 1st half spread is not up yet

            And Dallas is a 1 point dog against the Bulls, which is what I think is a mistake by the linesmaker but a "sheepish" mistake. As I said, Dallas should not be getting any points in this game at all. With a moneyline of -105 for Dallas, I am not playing the spread, instead I am playing the moneyline.
            Comment
            • cnleaf
              Restricted User
              • 11-08-08
              • 346

              #7
              DET first half -2.5
              Comment
              • MoneySportsGuy
                SBR MVP
                • 12-09-07
                • 4891

                #8
                cocknocker,

                got Detroit 1H -2.5 so I'm good with that. great write up though and goodluck on your plays.

                in Dallas and Bulls game right now its PK and I like the Bulls as Dalls had that great win at San Antonio but other then that they dont impress me so far in the season but its super early

                Is interesting though the only 2 wins they have both on the road and covering the spread so interesting how this game turns out. that is sick Bulls havent been favored with this matchup in 10 years I mean wow
                Comment
                • cocknocker
                  Restricted User
                  • 11-06-08
                  • 8001

                  #9
                  MoneySportsGuy,

                  Yeah I got Detroit -2.5 firs half too, an I already pounded it, as I feel that the spread will go up, and matter of fact it already has gone up to Detroit -4.5 and rising on most books. The Warriors are in a bad spot right now, and it's time to take full advantage of that. The Dallas line went from Dallas being a 1 point underdog to being a pick almost immediately, so I was glad to have gotten them at -105 on the moneyline and thus giving me a break on the vigorish. I am gonna crunch some numbers and come up with a college football play say sometime around noon. I will check back periodically to see if the Mafia has come up with anything new. You gotta love these guys. They are about supplying information and wagering, not the usual b.s. that goes on in forums. And with that said, let's get em boys! Give me what ya got!
                  Comment
                  • maddogmadden86
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 11-08-08
                    • 898

                    #10
                    my book doesnt have the lines up yet for either game just the nuggets game i really hope i dont get screwed over by the time they come up i'm just gonna sit here at work and click refresh lines until they come in lol
                    Comment
                    • roasthawg
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-09-07
                      • 2990

                      #11
                      Hope you guys are wrong on this one...I'm on GS +4.5.
                      Comment
                      • cocknocker
                        Restricted User
                        • 11-06-08
                        • 8001

                        #12
                        Attention CK Mafia Members! I Just Got A Call From The PC Boys, We Are Going To Do Conference Call Tonight After The Action. There Is A Potential PC Play For Friday If The Line Is What It Usually Is Between These Two Teams Tomorrow!
                        Comment
                        • MoneySportsGuy
                          SBR MVP
                          • 12-09-07
                          • 4891

                          #13
                          roasthawg

                          That is not good to hear as I know your a solid capper as well and we both had some pretty good plays yesterday. I'm not trying to insult, but what do you see which favors GS in this? Just curious as know your a solid capper as well.
                          Comment
                          • roasthawg
                            SBR MVP
                            • 11-09-07
                            • 2990

                            #14
                            Originally posted by MoneySportsGuy
                            roasthawg

                            That is not good to hear as I know your a solid capper as well and we both had some pretty good plays yesterday. I'm not trying to insult, but what do you see which favors GS in this? Just curious as know your a solid capper as well.
                            Well I had them -7.5 against sac the other night and they pulled through at the end but I think the up tempo style teams should give them some problems while they're adjusting to AI. Plus they got the Lakers tomorrow so maybe they're looking ahead a little...I don't know, I look at this game as pretty much a toss up and in that situation I like the home team getting points. I love the under in this game as well.
                            Comment
                            • maddogmadden86
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 11-08-08
                              • 898

                              #15
                              hey CK is -4.5 still solid for the pistons game or should i buy the hook to -4
                              Comment
                              • cocknocker
                                Restricted User
                                • 11-06-08
                                • 8001

                                #16
                                maddogmadden,

                                Always buy the hook off. The line will reach 6 by gametime so do it as soon as possible
                                Comment
                                • maddogmadden86
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 11-08-08
                                  • 898

                                  #17
                                  CK you still rolling with the MAvs first half and game PK? also you like the line movement up with the nuggets game moving to +7
                                  Comment
                                  • IrwinFletcher
                                    SBR Hustler
                                    • 11-10-08
                                    • 96

                                    #18
                                    What up C?
                                    First thing that jumped out at me was the under 199 in CLE.. Although Denver is still a jump shooting team... Chauncy is methodical in his approach, likes to set up the half court O.. I look for him to get Mello and Nene some early looks in the low blocks and make LeBron and Z work on the defensive end.. I really don't see how the new look Nuggs will continue to run and gun like last year. On the defensive end I think they'll force LeBron to beat them by taking away other scoring options. Big Ben can't score and Z will have a tough time with Nene on both ends of the floor and may just get into early foul trouble.. Billups will be all over Williams.. which means West and the bench will have to get some numbers for this to go over.. IMHO..

                                    Thoughts?
                                    Comment
                                    • wangichu
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 11-07-08
                                      • 946

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by roasthawg
                                      Well I had them -7.5 against sac the other night and they pulled through at the end but I think the up tempo style teams should give them some problems while they're adjusting to AI. Plus they got the Lakers tomorrow so maybe they're looking ahead a little...I don't know, I look at this game as pretty much a toss up and in that situation I like the home team getting points. I love the under in this game as well.
                                      Playing at the Arco Arena is a different beast and honestly, I think Sacramento at home is a better team than Golden State anywhere, especially at this point. Detroit went 6-0 against Golden State, Denver, and Phoenix last year (those being in my opinion the predominant and best fast paced teams of last year), covering the number in all 6, whereas Sacramento actually beat them twice last year (once i think they had injury problems, but still), so if anything Sacramento just plays them well or matches up better with them.

                                      CK ... that ML is down to -280, I know that's a small change, but does that sound any better? ... also is there a place i can find a template for correct MLs or something... i love using that, but i can only really tell it's skewed when you talk about it. Still think i'm firing on that play though, I already locked up DET -4, and half timers on DAL -.5 and DET -2.5, those are the better plays, but i can't shake the feeling that denver will at least rattle the cavs.

                                      I'm thinking i might play it at +7 or buy it to +8 and hedge the play with a parlay on CLE ML and DET ML...
                                      Comment
                                      • roasthawg
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 11-09-07
                                        • 2990

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by wangichu
                                        Playing at the Arco Arena is a different beast and honestly, I think Sacramento at home is a better team than Golden State anywhere, especially at this point. Detroit went 6-0 against Golden State, Denver, and Phoenix last year (those being in my opinion the predominant and best fast paced teams of last year), covering the number in all 6, whereas Sacramento actually beat them twice last year (once i think they had injury problems, but still), so if anything Sacramento just plays them well or matches up better with them.
                                        Yeah, we'll see. Detroit could easily cover this in the end but I just don't like them with AI so far and GS is due to play a good game. I like the points.
                                        Comment
                                        • oso
                                          SBR Rookie
                                          • 11-11-08
                                          • 44

                                          #21
                                          Ck so Detroit it is? what is your strongest pick as I will go large again!
                                          Comment
                                          • 2qwik
                                            SBR Hustler
                                            • 11-12-08
                                            • 61

                                            #22
                                            On Detroit for the game. I only went with Orlando yesterday and that went well

                                            Thanks CK
                                            Comment
                                            • wangichu
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 11-07-08
                                              • 946

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by oso
                                              Ck so Detroit it is? what is your strongest pick as I will go large again!
                                              guarantee he'll rank them

                                              1. Det game
                                              2. DET half
                                              3. DAL half
                                              Comment
                                              • MoneySportsGuy
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-09-07
                                                • 4891

                                                #24
                                                roasthawg,

                                                Do you like the UNDER at 199 for GS and Detroit or Denver and Cleveland?
                                                Comment
                                                • NYCKEV
                                                  SBR Hustler
                                                  • 11-11-08
                                                  • 99

                                                  #25
                                                  All games go under today.

                                                  Den-Cle under 199, Det-GS under 199.5 and Dal-Chi under 200.5
                                                  Comment
                                                  • roasthawg
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 11-09-07
                                                    • 2990

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by NYCKEV
                                                    All games go under today.

                                                    Den-Cle under 199, Det-GS under 199.5 and Dal-Chi under 200.5
                                                    Agreed. I'm on the Det and Dal unders and Den/Cle probably goes under as well.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • chodya
                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                      • 11-06-08
                                                      • 12

                                                      #27
                                                      No way Chicago/Dallas should stay under. Bulls are hurting... With Gordon starting it means less D and more points on both ends of the court. Bulls just signed Hunter for gods sake. And I think he might even be in uniform tonight.. Ill be at the game cheering them on but my money might have to be on the Mavs...

                                                      GL
                                                      Comment
                                                      • MoneySportsGuy
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 12-09-07
                                                        • 4891

                                                        #28
                                                        Yeah right on got Det and Den/Cleve UNDER 199 as well
                                                        Comment
                                                        • cocknocker
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 11-06-08
                                                          • 8001

                                                          #29
                                                          Wang,

                                                          I would think that the Nuggets would play well in this one, but I just can't touch that one. I am waiting to stick the Nuggets when they play Boston on the back end of a back to back tomorrow and again on Sunday when they play the first home game after a long road trip. I am holding Boston responsible for getting my money back and I mean that. So it would figure that they would want to play well tonight. Good luck on that one.


                                                          I had Dallas early when they were pegged as a 1 point dog for the game. I decided to play the moneyline, which at -105 to cut out a lot of vigorish. At that time the Dallas half wasn't up yet on my book. So far that's all that I have on that one. I will watch the line and see what it does. I played everything with much consideration, so I may not play the first half heavily. But i will play it though.

                                                          Oso, I don't like to give the nod to one play over another. But if I had to choose one, I like Miami Fl-4 tonight in college football. As far as NBA is concerned:

                                                          Detroit 1st half
                                                          Detroit -4 game
                                                          Dallas -105 game
                                                          Dallas 1st half-1
                                                          Comment
                                                          • roasthawg
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 11-09-07
                                                            • 2990

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by MoneySportsGuy
                                                            roasthawg,

                                                            Do you like the UNDER at 199 for GS and Detroit or Denver and Cleveland?
                                                            I like it for Det/GS...I got it at 202 this morning but 199 still sounds decent.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • maddogmadden86
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 11-08-08
                                                              • 898

                                                              #31
                                                              CK are you wagering more on the pistons then the mavs tonight? i placed even bets all all four should i raise the anty on the pistons bets?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • cocknocker
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 11-06-08
                                                                • 8001

                                                                #32
                                                                Even bets will do just fine, maddog
                                                                Comment
                                                                • maddogmadden86
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 11-08-08
                                                                  • 898

                                                                  #33
                                                                  sounds good my man lets DO WOrk tonight and cash that ticket son!!!!!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Alex68
                                                                    SBR Rookie
                                                                    • 11-07-08
                                                                    • 42

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Go Dallas!!!!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • oso
                                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                                      • 11-11-08
                                                                      • 44

                                                                      #35
                                                                      any thoughts 2nd half mavs????
                                                                      Comment
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