PHOENIX--5mike5

[5mike5]

alright boys nascar series is off to PHOENIX Inernational Speedway this coming weekend!!!!

Phoenix is a 1.0 mile Tri-Oval short track...Banking is 11 degrees in the turns, 3 degrees in frontstrech, and 9 degrees in the backstretch...Chevy has Won 11 of last 13 races, but Toyota(kahne last yr) and Ford(edwards) have each won 1 of the last 3 races held here in the Srpint Cup series, so that trend may be turning just a bit

**hopefully can keep up the great start after a huge daytona 500 wins...+2700 kennseth win and my H2H parlay paid off huge, which is the whole point to spending 30+ hours a week researching the races every week...i treat this as my job and i try and work very hard at it..The more we ALL win, the better...below is the Sprint Cup series schedule for the upcoming race weekend at Phoenix....


PRACTICES:

Friday 2:30pm and 5:30 pm both on SPEED channel (all times est)

QUALIFYING:

Saturday 2:30 pm on SPEED channel

SPRINT CUP RACE: Sunday 2:30 pm on FOX


**also we have a NATIONWIDE RACE on Saturday at 4PM (est) on ESPN2



***as always any thoughts/insight is always welcome on my weekly nascar race thread....the more information shared/discussed the more money we will all be positioned to win on the weekends...ive started my research for early week and will continue through BOTH practice sessions and qualifying...i use much more than weekly practice sessions, but they are a small part of my track driver rating system i use....i will post my early wagers as i do throughout this thread, and will post my final roster on morning of raceday...

**feel free to fade/tail but dont hold me responsible for wins or losses......this thread is for information and discussion not here becuase i want any1 to follow my wagers

GOODLUCK TO EVERYBODY and hopefully we keep cashing huge paydays!!!!!

[5mike5]

im guessing early odds will be up this evening/early morning

[Optional]

Is this the first race with the new config here? Or have we had one on it already?

[5mike5]

Is this the first race with the new config here? Or have we had one on it already?

reconfigured between races last season, so fall race was on new track

[avssakic]

I'll be there all weekend, weeeee

[5mike5]

I'll be there all weekend, weeeee

thats awsome buddy!

[shaunovery]

Nice win at the 500 mike I'm tailing you

[5mike5]

Nice win at the 500 mike I'm tailing you

thanks buddy

[DDT]

Mike knows his shit.......just ask him

[5mike5]

Mike knows his shit.......just ask him

...lol

[brumbies]

i was randomly browsing through the forums and came across this thread. i must say this is the first time i ever heard of someone betting nascar for a living. even more amazing that you hit the longshot on matt. i think i am going to quit my job and tail you from now on.

[5mike5]

i was randomly browsing through the forums and came across this thread. i must say this is the first time i ever heard of someone betting nascar for a living. even more amazing that you hit the longshot on matt. i think i am going to quit my job and tail you from now on.

....

[5mike5]

i was randomly browsing through the forums and came across this thread. i must say this is the first time i ever heard of someone betting nascar for a living. even more amazing that you hit the longshot on matt. i think i am going to quit my job and tail you from now on.

...

[Optional]

Not so sure he was hating on you Mike.

[5mike5]

Not so sure he was hating on you Mike.

i edited the post...u may be right.....think i "miss" understood.....im tired give me a break...LOL

[Optional]

Me too. DDT just made a crack about me not sleeping. So I'm going to do some now.

[5mike5]

Me too. DDT just made a crack about me not sleeping. So I'm going to do some now.

im watchin last years fall phoenix race.... early odds are out on 5d now too..This will be a good week for the sessions to shed more light on things....not sure past performance should as used AS much as usual imo

especially since theres only been 1 race on this new configuration and pavement of the Phoenix track

im going to look close tonight, to see if ill go ahead and jump on a few early "to win" drivers

[5mike5]

jimmy johnson at phoenix is a must have imo....its his best track avg. wise 2nd only to Fontana

+900 early is SOLID i think....just cant pass up that value on him at Phoenix....I could be wrong but i just dont see him being higer than 9 to 1 come the next few days

i had to go ahead and grab him early...along with newman at +2200, its also his best track on the circuit, but i would also be aware he is a big longshot who u may get better odds on later, but if so ill add money at that point...jeff burton +3300 not too bad either as he is past winner here too, and his team really steped up at the end of last season...again, big longshot of course, but still decent value early at those odds

may add 1 more early, but will wait on the sessions for every other driver i add....wont clog up my roster here early with drivers toward top of the odds right now...want to give myself plenty of room late in the week to freely add drivers..

[DDT]

I like Jimmie as well too, they are going to be determined after their shitty outing at Daytona.

[5mike5]

I like Jimmie as well too, they are going to be determined after their shitty outing at Daytona.

not just that i just cant leave him off my roster at those odds, i mean i expected him at +700 or so being its his 2nd best track and he has 4 wins here dosnt hurt either....just would feel dumb if he wins and i didnt have him in some fashion....will +add money maybe, when i decide whos my "covers" and big winners

[sharpcat]

You guys know Knaus has been suspended for the next 6 races and JJ docked 25 points right?

I would tread carefully with JJ at such small odds.

[5mike5]

You guys know Knaus has been suspended for the next 6 races and JJ docked 25 points right? I would tread carefully with JJ at such small odds.

yes of course i know, thats why hes only +900, hed be +600 if chad was there....those arent very small odds actually for him here....didnt say hes my fav. to win the race or anything, but hes won without chad b4 and the cars already ready so not that big a deal to me...

no way i leave him off my roster here, especially at those odds...just wouldnt be very smart for the amount of money i bet each week...ill decide later to make him a big winner or just a "cover" wager, but either way hes well worth the price

[shaunovery]

Mike from what I've read and my own research do you have any info on Denny hamlin this week I think the 11 will run well

[5mike5]

hes finished 11th, 12th, 30th, and 12th last 4 runs there, but hes 1 of my favs to make a run this year...i think hes going to be strong...hes usually good at these flat tracks, but wasnt good at the "short" flat tracks last year but i expect this to change this year...im personally going to wait and see how he does in the sessions b4 i make a choice on betting him here or not..i think him between 10-11 to 1 is really high for a place he hasnt even had a top-10 finish latley...but with that said i do expect him to run well here this week, but not sure if i like his odds for an early wager yet

all that said im definatley looking at denny, but jut not sure i will bet him early at those odds, even if i lose a few points, its worth seeing him pracyice and qualify

[sharpcat]

yes of course i know, thats why hes only +900, hed be +600 if chad was there....those arent very small odds actually for him here....didnt say hes my fav. to win the race or anything, but hes won without chad b4 and the cars already ready so not that big a deal to me...

no way i leave him off my roster here, especially at those odds...just wouldnt be very smart for the amount of money i bet each week...ill decide later to make him a big winner or just a "cover" wager, but either way hes well worth the price

The #48 team have very likely been making unfair adjustments to their cars for the last 8 years giving themselves an advantage. I would be very skeptical at this point about using past performance data for the #48 since they are going to be under a microscope for the next few years, just like I would not use Brian Braun's last 2 years of data as an accurate predictor of how many HR's he will hit this year.

Communication between driver and crew chief is also very crucial and could prove to be costly, especially in the first race together on short notice. Add in that JJ is starting the season -23 points and I can see a lot of frustration going on here.

I don't see JJ having better than a 10% chance of winning this race.

[5mike5]

KANAUS IS on the #48 pit box this weekend anyways...he is appealing the suspension and wont be hearing til NEXT week...so the driver/crew chief communication thats so crucial wont be an issue it looks like

[5mike5]

The #48 team have very likely been making unfair adjustments to their cars for the last 8 years giving themselves an advantage. I would be very skeptical at this point about using past performance data for the #48 since they are going to be under a microscope for the next few years, just like I would not use Brian Braun's last 2 years of data as an accurate predictor of how many HR's he will hit this year. Communication between driver and crew chief is also very crucial and could prove to be costly, especially in the first race together on short notice. Add in that JJ is starting the season -23 points and I can see a lot of frustration going on here. I don't see JJ having better than a 10% chance of winning this race.

...u act like i said hes winning the race or something...i use a roster and my own system that takes everything into consideration..its calulating risk and odds and having an entire roster, not pining my race every week on 1-2 drivers...thats why im able to do this full time....

every1 has their own opinion, but win or lose, doesnt make sense when u bet using system i use to leave the best drivers' off at their best tracks any week..that would just make 0 sense, and lose you ALOT of money in the long-run....too cheap to go ahead and put them on than be very sorry and out a ton of money if they win

and u thinking #48 team only has 10% chance to win ANY race tells me u dont know very much about NASCAR, much less his 2nd best track overall...and u thinking past performance doesnt mean anything in nascar??? also confirms this for me

[5mike5]

i see biffle is just a wee bit pissed off about everybody saying that he didnt take the chance to win the daytona 500....he is SORE and probably tired of hearing about that already

[Vegas39]

A few longshots that ran strong on new configuration

Ambrose

Allmendinger

Newman

[5mike5]

A few longshots that ran strong on new configuration

Ambrose

Allmendinger

Newman

yeah i already grabbed newman at +2200 and burton at +3300....

thats only longshots ive grabbed early

[Vegas39]

yeah i already grabbed newman at +2200 and burton at +3300....

thats only longshots ive grabbed early

.good luck buddy

[5mike5]

.good luck buddy

thanks, but ill have a few more underdogs, probably just wait til after sessions...

only jj on favorites side of things and may add 1 more early there as well

save the rest of the roster for after the practice/qualifying sessions

u havent finished all ur bets have ya vegas39???

[Vegas39]

No only Newman so far most will be done Saturday

[5mike5]

No only Newman so far most will be done Saturday

good deal...GL

[brumbies]

eh mike, i saw that you replied twice after my post but had since been edited. im curious whats the original message? sorry i was busy at work, just got to this thread.