Probability Based NRL

[goty0405]

I'm currently just playing 1 unit per play as I'm still in early days in terms of getting this system right. I think there will be more profitable ways to bet using this data but I figured 1 unit per bet was the simplest for now.

One thing I will do in the future is get some historical odds data for the past few years and then test some different betting strategies with my simulation but that will probably wait until the off season.

[goty0405]

This Round Stats:
Predicted Team = 6/8 (75%)
Predicted Team beat the spread = 5/8 (62.5%)

Overall Stats:
Predicted Team = 30/40 (75%)
Predicted Team beat the spread = 123/40 (57.5%)

[goty0405]

Round 24...

Melbourne vs St George
M: 80.35%
S: 19.65%

South Sydney vs North Queensland
S: 63.22%
N: 36.78%

Gold Coast vs Canberra
G: 49.47%
C: 50.53%

Penrith vs New Zealand
P: 25.71%
N: 74.29%

Sydney Roosters vs Cronulla
S: 49.88%
C: 50.12%

Manly vs Canterbury
M: 83.12%
C: 16.88%

Wests vs Parramatta
W: 84.91%
P: 15.09%

Newcastle vs Brisbane
N: 42.02%
B: 57.98%

[goty0405]

It looks like most of these matches will be played this round, including Melbourne and South Sydney tonight (I got both at 1.69 earlier)

[goty0405]

Good results last night but both could have gone either way.

Today looks like it's full of action again. I just got Canberra @ 2.18 and then there has been some money for them and they've steamed in to around 2.0. I am pondering trading out as my prediction says this will be a close game.

[goty0405]

The selections for last night were Canberra, New Zealand, and Cronulla. The only significant favourite was New Zealand so I ended up trading out on both Canberra and Cronulla to guarantee a profit and I'm quite thankful I did. However I will still be recording these as losses here as the whole point is to measure the accuracy of the simulation model.

[goty0405]

Today I'm on Manly (@ 1.28) and Wests (@ 1.33)

[goty0405]

Both plays cashed yesterday and now I'm looking for Broncos if > 1.73 (or 1.76 on BF).

[goty0405]

No lucking getting the Broncos as they steamed in and the result proved the late money correct.

This Round Stats:
Predicted Team = 6/8 (75%)
Predicted Team beat the spread = 4/8 (50%)

Overall Stats:
Predicted Team = 36/48 (75%)
Predicted Team beat the spread = 27/48 (56.25%)

The interesting point for this week's stats is that the only 2 incorrect picks were such even-money predictions with < 1% between the teams

[goty0405]

Round 25...

Manly vs Melbourne
Man: 45.91%
Melb: 54.09%

Parramatta vs Sydney
P: 39.06%
S: 60.94%

Canterbury vs Newcastle
C: 42.95%
N: 57.05%

North Queensland vs Cronulla
N: 72.06%
C: 27.94%

Canberra vs Penrith
C: 35.00%
P: 65.00%

Brisbane vs South Sydney
B: 68.33%
S: 31.67%

St George vs New Zealand
S: 45.88%
N: 54.13%

Wests vs Gold Coast
W: 86.34%
G: 13.66%

Very interesting predictions there. In 5 of the matches my predicted favourite has actually been posted as the outsider in the early odds markets. So this week could be very profitable for me...or it could poke a big whole in my model

[MrXYZ]

I agree with the Warriors prediction, they should cover the +5.5 & reckon Newcastle @2.00 is good value too.

[goty0405]

Looks like I'll be playing Melbourne and the Roosters tonight. Both are underdogs according to the books so fingers crossed.

I agree with the Warriors prediction, they should cover the +5.5 & reckon Newcastle @2.00 is good value too.

Good call on the NZ +5.5 cover. It will be a good close game I reckon. And Newcastle is looking like great value imo.

[goty0405]

I've been away getting married and lapping up midday cocktails by the beach for my honeymoon but I still had my NRL bets going on autopilot

I'll post up the final stats in a few days and have a look at some interesting trends for the season.

I'm not confident in following the predictions in finals but for the fun of it I ran the simulation for next week:

Manly vs Brisbane
M: 66.70%
B: 33.30%

Melbourne vs New Zealand
M: 71.10%
B: 28.90%

[kingsr]

Congratulations Goty