Restrepo's 2011 AFL Thread

[Alt75]

Nice to see we're on the same page for tonight's game.

I see sportingbet have HT/FT WCE for $2.05. Eagles should lead throughout the game, was thinking it might be a nice hedge in case Demons tire due to the bye and travel in the last half/q and get blown out over 40 towards the end.

[StevoS]

Good luck tonight

[Restrepo]

I think Melbourne will be up for this, all reports are they went west early. They need to show their supporters they have improved from last night or the heat will be on them very soon to start performing.

Lacres inclusion is great for the weagles however he is back a lot earlier than predicted after tearing his abductor off the bone and will only play a bit part tonight imo

Good luck tonight

Thanks Steve0 BOL to you for the weekend ahead

[Alt75]

Yeah they have been in WA since Tuesday I've heard, still with the bye, travel and WCE's likely dominant midfield, if there is going to be a blowout over 40 it will probably be due to Melbourne cramping late, I would figure. Running out full games seems to be a what if for most teams outside the top 4, give or take.

I don't want to sound like a negative nancy I obviously hope the 1-39 hits and I get the HT/FT Dub.

BOL and hope you have a sterling weekend chaps

[Restrepo]

Yeah they have been in WA since Tuesday I've heard, still with the bye, travel and WCE's likely dominant midfield, if there is going to be a blowout over 40 it will probably be due to Melbourne cramping late, I would figure. Running out full games seems to be a what if for most teams outside the top 4, give or take.

I don't want to sound like a negative nancy I obviously hope the 1-39 hits and I get the HT/FT Dub.

BOL and hope you have a sterling weekend chaps

Didn't see any cramping from Melbourne probably because i didn't see much running either. Very disappointing showing from them tonight, if i was a Dees fan any hope i had for this season would be well out the window by now.

I don't think they can keep Bailey on as coach beyond this season. His game plan is terrible and they currently do not have the skills to run and carry out of defense against the ever popular forward press. I remember hearing last night that WCE score 8.7 from Melbourne turnovers.

If they can afford it, I think we might see Malthouse at the Demons for the next 5-6 seasons. This should appeal to Malthouse as he can develop the young player to play the way he wants. Lets see how the end of the year pans out and I hope someone opens a market on this.

West Coast v Melbourne - West Coast Under 39.5 @ $2.25

On reflection I think i got greedy here and should have just played the line. Live and learn i guess. I'm off to the Swans game tonight so will post my picks sometime this afternoon before I head to the pub

[Restrepo]

Tonight's game

Very wet in Sydney over the last week and as I look out my window still a lot of grey clouds about. I don't think we will get a lot of rain throughout the game. However, the SCG will be very wet under foot.

Sydney v Carlton - Sydney -4.5 @ $1.92 (4 unit play)
Sydney v Carlton - Sydney Under 39.5 @ $2.35

BOL

[Restrepo]

Todays plays

North Melbourne -16.5 @ $1.92
Richmond - 18.5 @ $1.92

[Restrepo]

Sydney v Carlton - Sydney -4.5 @ $1.92 (4 unit play)
Sydney v Carlton - Sydney Under 39.5 @ $2.35

BOL

North Melbourne -16.5 @ $1.92
Richmond - 18.5 @ $1.92

Sundays plays

Collingwood -29.5 @ $1.60
Essendon -61.5 @ $1.68

[Domestic]

I also like Collingwood today, best of luck.

[donkson]

Yeah Pies should win by a big margin, my only worry would be no Jolly but they should still dominate with the dogs outs.

[Restrepo]

dons already out to a 50 point lead

[Domestic]

The Suns.. what a joke.

[rjc]

Holy crap! Will they call it game at half time? You can't do this to a bunch of young kids. Mercy rule or something.

[beeps220]

Does Gold Coast know there's a match today?

Anybody know the most points and largest margin of victory in a match?

And to think I was worried about laying 66½

[Restrepo]

I think i heard on SEN biggest winning margin was 178 points back in 1919

[mjespoz]

Fitzroy beat Melbourne 36-22-238 to 6-12-48 (190 points) on July 28, 1979.

[Restrepo]

Sundays plays

Collingwood -29.5 @ $1.60
Essendon -61.5 @ $1.68

Sydney killed me this week, profit wise for the season. Just checked the lines on Centrebet, already a few early leans for me this week.

YTD: 19 - 16 - 1
-2.257 Units

[Restrepo]

Friday Night Footy

Going to shoot another angle here tonight and just play a 2 leg multi.

Country (NRL) into Hawks +1.5 (it was paying more then the H2H win on PYOL) @ 1.78 (2 units)

Here are the reasons why. I haven't felt comfortable on the line for the Port Hawks game all week. It opens at 29.5 (from memory) and is now into 25.5 for god knows what reason, on paper you would think that the hawks should cover this (and they probably will) but i have my doubts.

However, the hawks are coming off the bye and playing Port. The Hawks might not be as up for this game as they should.

Port on the other hand have been diabolical, absolutely copped a shellacking in the media this week and imo have an assistant coach trying to undermine the head coach so he can get back into a senior coaching roll.

I am not just talking about Laidleys mid week radio interview either. During a call a couple of weeks ago he was blowing up in the box apparently while Primus was trying to keep things cool calm and collected.

The players might lift for Primus as he is a legend of the club and you play for your coach and not some assistant.

Anyway, id prob leave this game alone if it wasn't the only fixture on tonight so fade away.

[Restrepo]

Country (NRL) into Hawks +1.5 (it was paying more then the H2H win on PYOL) @ 1.78 (2 units)

YTD: 20 - 16 - 1
-0.697 Units

[Restrepo]

I am heading out for most of the day so going to post my plays early.

WESTERN BULLDOGS (-6.5) @ 1.92 (2 units)

Sydney have won 1 of their last 5 @ manuka and looking at their team line up just don't see where the goals are going to come from.

GEELONG (-50.0) @ 2.10

Not much to say here really, North are terrible and have no real run apart from Harvey. Cats at Skilled stadium should put a clinic on today.

RICHMOND (+9.5) @ 1.92

I got on this line early, it is now into -4.5. Richmond are up and I think will come from behind to beat Freo. Freo are traveling interstate and are comming off the bye.

My views on the bye are a bit different to others on here, as i think it is more of a hindrance when you are competing against closely matched sides, as i believe you lose some sharpness and some run from the legs. This should be the game of the round.

Not sure if I will play the Suns/Lions game tonight, will check in later if I do.

BOL

[therealdealau]

good luck on your plays like the doggies/tigers

[Restrepo]

Also playing the late game

GOLD COAST (+42.0) @ 2.10

[rjc]

Good luck!

[Restrepo]

WESTERN BULLDOGS (-6.5) @ 1.92(2 units)
GEELONG (-50.0) @ 2.10
RICHMOND (+9.5) @ 1.92

GOLD COAST (+42.0) @ 2.10

YTD: 23 - 17 - 1
0.423Units

Really wish I could start hitting some of my multi unit bets. Anyway on to tomorrow

[Restrepo]

Sundays Games

Selection: : ESSENDON (-30.5) @ 1.92 (3 units)
Selection: : ESSENDON vs WEST COAST Over (193.5) @ 1.90
Selection: : ADELAIDE @ 2.07

Mondays Game

Selection: : CARLTON (-16.5) @ 1.92

[binomial]

good luck, i like your bets. Also like under in the adelaide game. both teams have been struggling to score and looks like rain.

[Restrepo]

Im holding out on the Adelaide game total to see what the weather is like. Radar does show some storms heading across the bay but going to hold out. Some late money has come for Melbourne as well which im also keeping an eye on.

[Restrepo]

I'll be in the SBR poker room for a while if anyone wants to play

[Restrepo]

I'll be in the SBR poker room for a while if anyone wants to play

or not where did the SNGs go

[Restrepo]

Sundays Games

Selection: : ESSENDON (-30.5) @ 1.92 (3 units)
Selection: : ESSENDON vs WEST COAST Over (193.5) @ 1.90
Selection: : ADELAIDE @ 2.07

Mondays Game

Selection: : CARLTON (-16.5) @ 1.92

Bad end to last week, lets turn that around tonight.

Selection: : GEELONG | Under 39.5 @ 3.00

Been wet in Melbourne with a forecast of possible hail tonight. Like the cats in the wet tonight.

YTD: 24 - 20 - 1
- 3.677 Units

[Restrepo]

Also playing the under

Selection: : Geelong/Collingwood Under (164.5) @ 1.90

[Restrepo]

Selection: : GEELONG | Under 39.5 @ 3.00
Selection: : Geelong/Collingwood Under (164.5) @ 1.90

YTD: 26 - 20 - 1
- 0.777 Units

[Restrepo]

Saturdays bets

Selection: : NORTH MELBOURNE @ 1.96
Selection: : NORTH MELBOURNE @ 1.92 (4 units)
Selection: : NORTH MELBOURNE vs MELBOURNE Under (199.5) @ 1.90
Selection: : GOLD COAST (+33.0) @ 2.10
Selection: : ESSENDON (-32.5) @ 1.92

No play on the Sydney game tonight, can't find anything i like.

[Restrepo]

Saturdays bets

Selection: : NORTH MELBOURNE @ 1.96
Selection: : NORTH MELBOURNE @ 1.92 (4 units)
Selection: : NORTH MELBOURNE vs MELBOURNE Under (199.5) @ 1.90
Selection: : GOLD COAST (+33.0) @ 2.10
Selection: : ESSENDON (-32.5) @ 1.92

YTD: 28 - 22 - 1
2.783 Units

[Restrepo]

Sundays games (no play on Hawks/Saints)

Selection: : RICHMOND @ 2.26
Selection: : RICHMOND (+7.5) @ 1.92
Selection: : WEST COAST @ 2.00