Rugby and league 2011

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  • benrama
    SBR MVP
    • 01-19-11
    • 1499

    #1261
    I don't believe in teams being due or in the NRL influencing the results of games, if so they wouldn't have allowed QLD to dominate as they have in recent SOO history.

    If I look at the player by player comparisons, I give the advantages as follows (don't have time for write-ups)

    Anthony Minichiello vs Billy Slater Adv: QLD
    Jarryd Hayne vs Darius Boyd Adv: None
    Mark Gasnier vs Dane Nielsen Adv: NSW
    Will Hopoate vs Greg Inglis Adv: QLD
    Akuila Uate vs Jharal Yow Yeh Adv: NSW
    Jamie Soward vs Darren Lockyer Adv: QLD
    Mitchell Pearce vs Johnathan Thurston Adv: QLD
    Paul Gallen Matthew Scott Adv: NSW
    Michael Ennis Cameron Smith Adv: QLD
    Tim Mannah Petero Civoniceva Adv: QLD
    Ben Creagh Nate Myles Adv: None
    Beau Scott Sam Thaiday Adv: None
    Greg Bird Ashley Harrison Adv: None

    So I have QLD with (arguably) a 6-3 advantage on player vs player comparisons, and with about 3-4 times the Origin experience. We also have the Blues with players out of position (Hayne, Hopoate, Gallen) and bringing up has-beens at this level (Minichiello).

    We have a wet and windy game that will favour experience, and mute the importance of NSW having a more mobile forward pack.

    I see this being a QLD victory by potentially double digits, and I say that as a Blues supporter.

    The only way I see the Blues winning is by having a killer kicking game, and finding a way to get enough chances to get lucky. Lucky bounces, lucky turnovers in the QLD half, etc. I would also like to see them try to keep Uate super fresh until the last part of the game and then let him loose.

    I am tempted to lay off betting this game so I can enjoy it without prejudice to the outcome but I don't think I can resist the value on QLD now that enough punters have put their money on NSW.
    Comment
    • Beniphone
      SBR MVP
      • 02-10-11
      • 1391

      #1262
      It's going to be passion and determination that will get Nsw thru this, they are hungry. Alot of tears from the blues yesterday.



      Someone has put 40,000 on the blues.... How can you have balls that big?
      Comment
      • Gee
        SBR MVP
        • 04-08-10
        • 4547

        #1263
        You never know with these big bets Ben.

        Queensland could be the last leg of a parlay or they may have taken Qld to win the series...

        Or they could just be exceedingly rich and a $40,000.00 bet for them is the equivalent of a $1000 bet (or even $100) for us.
        Comment
        • Beniphone
          SBR MVP
          • 02-10-11
          • 1391

          #1264
          Yea thats true, each origin someone steps it up, last year it was 80k on the maroons game 3 I think. I just can't see how you can enjoy going that large lol
          Comment
          • Bazz27
            SBR High Roller
            • 02-21-09
            • 196

            #1265
            I agree Beniphone - & as i said before game 1 give me locky/thurston over any other combo until i see a different scoreline. I also see value in c/bet player specials, 1.5/units on most tries - slater over minni @3. I reckon billys good for 1 & maybe 1's enough.. o/u now at 29.5pts
            Comment
            • benrama
              SBR MVP
              • 01-19-11
              • 1499

              #1266
              Sportsbooks generally give out big bet amounts, in my opinion, to get you to bet that same side. If they thought it was a sharp angle they wouldn't do it.

              Pinnacle's line on the Blues has dropped on the ML and -2.5 but it's still juiced towards the -2.5 (-107 vs -103, or 1.93 vs 1.97).
              Comment
              • rjc
                SBR MVP
                • 06-06-10
                • 1016

                #1267
                How's the weather up there locals?
                Comment
                • Beniphone
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-10-11
                  • 1391

                  #1268
                  Sounds like it's like playing on a slip n slide from what the news was saying
                  Comment
                  • WillC
                    SBR MVP
                    • 11-10-09
                    • 1831

                    #1269
                    Leaning over 30.5
                    Forecast says 70% chance of rain tonight. Fill us in Sydneysiders.


                    GO QLD!
                    Comment
                    • kingsr
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-23-10
                      • 1983

                      #1270
                      Weather is shit! Cold, windy and been raining for days!

                      Follow this link...



                      This is the actual suburb/town weather conditions updated every 10 min
                      Comment
                      • benrama
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-19-11
                        • 1499

                        #1271
                        Yep it's a rain fest here in Sydney, been on and off all day. It has been holding off for an hour or so at a time so it could get lucky tonight (unlikely, and even so the ground will still be wet from today's downpour). Must say that point total of 30.5 looks tempting for the over even with the rain. Much more confident in QLD however.
                        Comment
                        • Beniphone
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-10-11
                          • 1391

                          #1272
                          The refs have said they are going to speed it up at the rucks, 15 points each seems hit able, hard to call
                          Comment
                          • rjc
                            SBR MVP
                            • 06-06-10
                            • 1016

                            #1273
                            Lazy 100k just put on QLD.
                            Comment
                            • kingsr
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-23-10
                              • 1983

                              #1274
                              Clear the refs favouring NSW
                              Comment
                              • Beniphone
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-10-11
                                • 1391

                                #1275
                                100k on qld, wow lol
                                Comment
                                • Beniphone
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 02-10-11
                                  • 1391

                                  #1276
                                  I was doubting hopa but he's actually proving his worth
                                  Comment
                                  • kingsr
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-23-10
                                    • 1983

                                    #1277
                                    Game is there to be WON for NSW if they want it! Well done Ricky stuart, good team selection, this is the future of NSW!
                                    Comment
                                    • Beniphone
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-10-11
                                      • 1391

                                      #1278
                                      They have the upper hand at the moment I reckon, if they come out in the 2nd half strong they have a chance. They are really taking to Lockyer on the kicks
                                      Comment
                                      • WillC
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 11-10-09
                                        • 1831

                                        #1279
                                        Good game so far, Just the one error against the play

                                        Need drop balls for this over to hit. 3 converted tries still possible ... make it happen
                                        Comment
                                        • Beniphone
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 02-10-11
                                          • 1391

                                          #1280
                                          NSW +3.5 WIN
                                          NSW 1-12 WIN

                                          Called from the start, qld game 1, nsw 2, game 3 is king lockyers infront of a sold out suncorp stadium for his last origin match
                                          Comment
                                          • Beniphone
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 02-10-11
                                            • 1391

                                            #1281
                                            Anyone know who ended up getting man of the match?

                                            Gallen had so many hit ups, tackles

                                            Mini made no mistakes under the highball

                                            Hopa had done good runs with an amazing try
                                            Comment
                                            • IDunno89
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 05-06-11
                                              • 486

                                              #1282
                                              Gallen got man of the match.... Deserving aswell...
                                              Comment
                                              • rjc
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 06-06-10
                                                • 1016

                                                #1283
                                                Feel for the guy that put 100k on QLD.
                                                Don't pull out the red bulls and sleeping pills yet, we've got a decider on our hands!
                                                Comment
                                                • Beniphone
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 02-10-11
                                                  • 1391

                                                  #1284
                                                  $100,000.00 gone just like that.

                                                  Bring on game 3, Qld -4.5
                                                  Comment
                                                  • hawley
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 05-10-10
                                                    • 14270

                                                    #1285
                                                    Originally posted by hawley
                                                    SInce game 1 I really felt like NSW would take this one and go back to Brizzy at 1 -1 but now im not so sure.

                                                    If NSW do win im certain it will be Gallen MOM . . . if only the TAB offered that option


                                                    at least I had NSW 1-12
                                                    Comment
                                                    • kingsr
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 01-23-10
                                                      • 1983

                                                      #1286
                                                      OMFG hawley WOW! what a pick haha get an online account!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • IDunno89
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 05-06-11
                                                        • 486

                                                        #1287
                                                        Has anyone seen the line for cowboys vs warriors game? Betfair has warriors 2.60 H2H
                                                        Comment
                                                        • kingsr
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-23-10
                                                          • 1983

                                                          #1288
                                                          Originally posted by IDunno89
                                                          Has anyone seen the line for cowboys vs warriors game? Betfair has warriors 2.60 H2H
                                                          That line looks right....game is being played in Nth Qld and warriors have dropped off in recent weeks.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • brad89
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 06-19-10
                                                            • 424

                                                            #1289
                                                            Originally posted by Beniphone
                                                            Bring on game 3, Qld -4.5
                                                            NSW 13+ don't waste your money.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Beniphone
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 02-10-11
                                                              • 1391

                                                              #1290
                                                              Lol, we shall see
                                                              Comment
                                                              • kingsr
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-23-10
                                                                • 1983

                                                                #1291
                                                                Origin is 3 weeks away...plenty of other games to cap in the mean time...At 1st glance I'm liking the bulldogs!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • hawley
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 05-10-10
                                                                  • 14270

                                                                  #1292
                                                                  Anyone else like titans tomorrow night?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Bazz27
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 02-21-09
                                                                    • 196

                                                                    #1293
                                                                    well done ricky, big test in 3 wks or this games a nothing win
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Beniphone
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 02-10-11
                                                                      • 1391

                                                                      #1294
                                                                      Originally posted by hawley
                                                                      Anyone else like titans tomorrow night?
                                                                      Was actually thinking souths when I first saw this, have not had time to look into it yet, what do you see in em mate?

                                                                      Stg vs broncs will be an awesome game, leaning Stg at the mo, so many variables at the moment with the players rested/injured
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • hawley
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 05-10-10
                                                                        • 14270

                                                                        #1295
                                                                        Originally posted by Beniphone

                                                                        Was actually thinking souths when I first saw this, have not had time to look into it yet, what do you see in em mate?

                                                                        Stg vs broncs will be an awesome game, leaning Stg at the mo, so many variables at the moment with the players rested/injured
                                                                        firstly Titans traditionally have been a pretty bad road team so that is a good reason to lay off if their form this year isn't.

                                                                        I just feel as if that win last week, although it was against a reserve grade Dragons team should do wonders for the Titans confidence. They may view it as a turning point in their season even if their season is finished. .

                                                                        Scotty Prince is playing his 250th match and I think is primed for another big one.


                                                                        As for Broncos - Dragons at this stage Brisbane is potentially going to be missing Hodges and Parker -both are 50/50

                                                                        Dragons are without Creagh, Scott and Morris. I have no idea on that game - would rather enjoy it without $$$ on it.
                                                                        Comment
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