I don't believe in teams being due or in the NRL influencing the results of games, if so they wouldn't have allowed QLD to dominate as they have in recent SOO history.
If I look at the player by player comparisons, I give the advantages as follows (don't have time for write-ups)
Anthony Minichiello vs Billy Slater Adv: QLD
Jarryd Hayne vs Darius Boyd Adv: None
Mark Gasnier vs Dane Nielsen Adv: NSW
Will Hopoate vs Greg Inglis Adv: QLD
Akuila Uate vs Jharal Yow Yeh Adv: NSW
Jamie Soward vs Darren Lockyer Adv: QLD
Mitchell Pearce vs Johnathan Thurston Adv: QLD
Paul Gallen Matthew Scott Adv: NSW
Michael Ennis Cameron Smith Adv: QLD
Tim Mannah Petero Civoniceva Adv: QLD
Ben Creagh Nate Myles Adv: None
Beau Scott Sam Thaiday Adv: None
Greg Bird Ashley Harrison Adv: None
So I have QLD with (arguably) a 6-3 advantage on player vs player comparisons, and with about 3-4 times the Origin experience. We also have the Blues with players out of position (Hayne, Hopoate, Gallen) and bringing up has-beens at this level (Minichiello).
We have a wet and windy game that will favour experience, and mute the importance of NSW having a more mobile forward pack.
I see this being a QLD victory by potentially double digits, and I say that as a Blues supporter.
The only way I see the Blues winning is by having a killer kicking game, and finding a way to get enough chances to get lucky. Lucky bounces, lucky turnovers in the QLD half, etc. I would also like to see them try to keep Uate super fresh until the last part of the game and then let him loose.
I am tempted to lay off betting this game so I can enjoy it without prejudice to the outcome but I don't think I can resist the value on QLD now that enough punters have put their money on NSW.
If I look at the player by player comparisons, I give the advantages as follows (don't have time for write-ups)
Anthony Minichiello vs Billy Slater Adv: QLD
Jarryd Hayne vs Darius Boyd Adv: None
Mark Gasnier vs Dane Nielsen Adv: NSW
Will Hopoate vs Greg Inglis Adv: QLD
Akuila Uate vs Jharal Yow Yeh Adv: NSW
Jamie Soward vs Darren Lockyer Adv: QLD
Mitchell Pearce vs Johnathan Thurston Adv: QLD
Paul Gallen Matthew Scott Adv: NSW
Michael Ennis Cameron Smith Adv: QLD
Tim Mannah Petero Civoniceva Adv: QLD
Ben Creagh Nate Myles Adv: None
Beau Scott Sam Thaiday Adv: None
Greg Bird Ashley Harrison Adv: None
So I have QLD with (arguably) a 6-3 advantage on player vs player comparisons, and with about 3-4 times the Origin experience. We also have the Blues with players out of position (Hayne, Hopoate, Gallen) and bringing up has-beens at this level (Minichiello).
We have a wet and windy game that will favour experience, and mute the importance of NSW having a more mobile forward pack.
I see this being a QLD victory by potentially double digits, and I say that as a Blues supporter.
The only way I see the Blues winning is by having a killer kicking game, and finding a way to get enough chances to get lucky. Lucky bounces, lucky turnovers in the QLD half, etc. I would also like to see them try to keep Uate super fresh until the last part of the game and then let him loose.
I am tempted to lay off betting this game so I can enjoy it without prejudice to the outcome but I don't think I can resist the value on QLD now that enough punters have put their money on NSW.
