GroundnPound NRL Thread Season 2010

[dizzy_7]

Cowboys terrible defensively and also when in attacking region thurston is magic as witnessed today..if the line is around 36-41 always take overs if the other team has attacking flair, ie tigers, broncos, penrith, obviously weather conditions also come into a factor here, but all in all overs was the special tonight.

[GroundnPound]

Like I said -6.5 is a line that tricks the public to take the dog because the local dude at the pub reckons the dog won't lose by two tries.

The worst line is -3.5, -4, how many times that has hit the +3.5 , +4 is unbelievable

[Dr.Gonzo]

You seriously think public money was on the Cowboys last night?

[TwoWays]

I take the line into consideration, GroundnPound. But I also take who's playing whom into consideration as well. If it were, say, the Dragons playing Cowboys giving 6.5, then I would definitely know something about the game line is not right and would never lay money on Dragons.

[sportscash]

All i will say is go the Eels .Hopefully they can go on a roll

[GroundnPound]

You seriously think public money was on the Cowboys last night?

No, doesn't matter if it was or not. I won my backing a trend that is hitting 80%.

I take the line into consideration, GroundnPound. But I also take who's playing whom into consideration as well. If it were, say, the Dragons playing Cowboys giving 6.5, then I would definitely know something about the game line is not right and would never lay money on Dragons.

Ye I look at the game, but automatically take -6.5 don't care what game it is.

All i will say is go the Eels .Hopefully they can go on a roll

Eels are going to start covering a lot I can feel it.

[peterw111]

Good pick GP....... If the odds are heavily in favour of certain line figures (6.5pts) why not tail them....I'm sure if its hitting around 80% even picking your favoured selection each week we couldn't hit that figure...

[rav_himself]

hey GnP, peterw, anyone...

australia is paying 2.00 to win against pakistan in a cricket test match and is probably getting pounded. Is this a good spot to take pakistan at 6.25??? The draw is paying 2.40 but draws rarely happens in cricket right? Am i missing something here?

[GroundnPound]

hey GnP, peterw, anyone...

australia is paying 2.00 to win against pakistan in a cricket test match and is probably getting pounded. Is this a good spot to take pakistan at 6.25??? The draw is paying 2.40 but draws rarely happens in cricket right? Am i missing something here?

My mate jumped on it at $1.90 and he is angry he didn't wait, I don;t know shit about circket though.

Good pick GP....... If the odds are heavily in favour of certain line figures (6.5pts) why not tail them....I'm sure if its hitting around 80% even picking your favoured selection each week we couldn't hit that figure...

Maybe I am exaderating a bit, but we'll c if it holds up.

[dizzy_7]

No, doesn't matter if it was or not. I won my backing a trend that is hitting 80%.



Ye I look at the game, but automatically take -6.5 don't care what game it is.



Eels are going to start covering a lot I can feel it.

Hey Mate,

Hitting 80%, care to elaborate your theory?

[GroundnPound]

Hey Mate,

Hitting 80%, care to elaborate your theory?

It is an estimate but if you check through the thread no -6.5 lie has lost from my memory if it is cofrrect

[dizzy_7]

So always give the 6.5 is your advice>

[GroundnPound]

I don't want you to lose money by doing that encase it falters for the first time in a while.

But more often that not I am going to be on -6.5.

[Gee]

hey GnP, peterw, anyone...

australia is paying 2.00 to win against pakistan in a cricket test match and is probably getting pounded. Is this a good spot to take pakistan at 6.25??? The draw is paying 2.40 but draws rarely happens in cricket right? Am i missing something here?

I missed this post yesterday.

You probably realized when you watched the game - rain is going to be a big issue (forecast for 4 of the first 5 days) and Australia don't bat that well against good swing bowlers, which the Pakis actually have at the moment. weather is why i didnt have a bet on this one though...

Pakistani batsmen are shit and no-one in their squad has played in a winning test vs Australia also.

I'd be staying away from this game. pakistan have come in to $3.35 or $2.7 on draw no bet, so probably not worth it. Australia now at 2.3 or 1.7 draw no bet..

[peterw111]

I missed the post yesterday as well, and the game has has now started and into DAY 2....

Even with this in mind I wont be betting on the test matches against Pakistan... Firstly I hate having to wait approx 5 days before I get my return back and at this point of the year I am still not interested in cricket..

Also Australia has more important games coming up ( ASHES ) so they may still be trying to get everything in order, so they may not be playing at there top level yet...

Unless you really need to bet leave this series alone....

And as Gee said weather could play a part in this series as don't forget it is played in ENGLAND...

Anyway much better sports currently on offer in Aus....

[MrStiffy]

Any initial leans for the weekend guys?

[Gee]

I missed the post yesterday as well, and the game has has now started and into DAY 2....

Even with this in mind I wont be betting on the test matches against Pakistan... Firstly I hate having to wait approx 5 days before I get my return back and at this point of the year I am still not interested in cricket..

Bet365 makes things a bit more interesting. instead of backing a result, i backed pakistani batsmen to be horrible.

after the aussies were bundled out, they were $2.20 to be more than 1.5 wickets down for 50 runs. 2/46. tight, but the way the ball was moving and the pakis bat, it was a good bet.

Less than 26 runs in first 10 overs was $1.83 in-play when the ball was doing a bit and also less than 156.5 team total at 1.90 when 2/130!! had a sweep last night! its a waste of time to post the in-play plays in here, as no-one will get them in time! if it is between innings i'll try.

Liking Johnson to be next man out caught at 2.13. only play small (1/2 unit at most). in play is speculative but johnson gets caught a lot.

I also like u/115.5 in the first 5.3 overs tomorrow (by 35 overs). i think australia start extremely cautiously, given the late collapse and pakis have been bowling quite well. Aus know there is plenty of time left in this test and will be happy to grind out a nice lead.

[GroundnPound]

NRL Record 44-32
AFL Record 41-28

Dragons (-6) @ Rabbitohs
Broncoes @ Titans (ML)

Cats (-22.5) @ Crows

[GroundnPound]

Holy fvck the Coowboys are 2-13 ATS. That is the worst I ever seen lol. Best is Penrith with 11-5. Time to fade them luckers.

[Domestic]

Bet365 makes things a bit more interesting. instead of backing a result, i backed pakistani batsmen to be horrible. after the aussies were bundled out, they were $2.20 to be more than 1.5 wickets down for 50 runs. 2/46. tight, but the way the ball was moving and the pakis bat, it was a good bet. Less than 26 runs in first 10 overs was $1.83 in-play when the ball was doing a bit and also less than 156.5 team total at 1.90 when 2/130!! had a sweep last night! its a waste of time to post the in-play plays in here, as no-one will get them in time! if it is between innings i'll try. Liking Johnson to be next man out caught at 2.13. only play small (1/2 unit at most). in play is speculative but johnson gets caught a lot. I also like u/115.5 in the first 5.3 overs tomorrow (by 35 overs). i think australia start extremely cautiously, given the late collapse and pakis have been bowling quite well. Aus know there is plenty of time left in this test and will be happy to grind out a nice lead.

Looks like a good bet, I'm tempted to take the over 258.5 total for Australia, I think the middle/late order bats well this time.

[Gee]

Looks like a good bet, I'm tempted to take the over 258.5 total for Australia, I think the middle/late order bats well this time.

i've learnt the hard way the last two ashes series - don't back aus to do anything with the bat against a swinging ball.

if you go that way, good luck though!

[Gee]

Ah first under didn't hit. Now under 178.5 in 50 overs for double. Really like this one.

[Ace_of_Spades]

Love the Titans pick GP

[Dr.Gonzo]

Already bet:

Penrith -4
Manly -6.5

[GroundnPound]

I think Titans are going to win to Spades.

Gonzo Parramatta is going to win there next 5, save your $$

[MrStiffy]

Penrith missing Lewis is a big loss, but I'm not yet sold on Parra and their hot potato football. Got to remember their win on Monday was against the worst team in the competition, and Cowboys defense doesn't exactly apply much pressure, so it suited their second phase game well. Hayne was the main factor in their attack, so a lot depends on if he can continue to lift the team, and how well the other team shuts him down. It will be an interesting game though, to see how Penrith cope after last weekend, and to see if Parra can back up another win after Monday night. Penrith also get Pritchard back this week.


Ground do you think Geelong will cover this easily, or it might be a relatively close game?

[GroundnPound]

If Geelong was at home this spread would of been something like -37.5. Might of taken Adelaide but 4 goal margin is not much for Geelong, if they fix shit up.

I'll post tonight how much units I have on each.

[Gee]

Ah first under didn't hit. Now under 178.5 in 50 overs for double. Really like this one.

if anyone cares it hit. i also jumped on over 170.5 in play and a few others. it was 174. cricket in play is so much fun.

Domestic: hope you got on the over 258.5. good old hilfy!

Will play Geelong tonight. Adelaide are my team and have managed to beat some hacks lately - Demons, Bombers and West Coast. Geelong are a different ballgame and have smashed adelaide in recent times. The line is obviously because adelaide have had a few wins of late and playing at AAMI.

Adelaide bring the ball inside 50 terribly and Geelong will own them on the rebound IMO.

For the league, agree with the Dragons pick, but i think i'll play broncos.

[GroundnPound]

Dragons -6 (0.5 units)
Titans ML (0.5 units)
Cats (4 units)

[Dr.Gonzo]

Gonzo Parramatta is going to win there next 5, save your $$

O'Rly?

13 NQ line breaks suggests otherwise.

Pritchard and Jennings will be in for a big night against that swiss cheese 3/4 defense.

[GroundnPound]

We'll see after the game. I don't even like Parramatta they screwed my Dragons over, but Parramatta is back and if you don't believe it you will after they cover and beat Penrith. North QLD can attack, Parramatta defence was off for a night. Penrith is a team based on luck high kick hope it bounces our way and score. The worst team in the top 4.

[Dr.Gonzo]

LOL I'm a Saints fan as well

I don't believe Parra is back after one performance from Hayne. The point you raise about Penrith actually has some validity. I don't agree they are the worst team in the top 4 but they do play straight forward Elliott ball and have scored a lot of tries of kicks. Some people compare them to the Chooks of 08.

I am taking a polar opposite position from you. I don't rate Parra and am not going to fall into them after an unimpressive victory against NQ. I was even on them huge on Monday night. However, they can't beat a fair dinkum team the way they are playing. Penrith can defend whilst Parra can't. Simple as that. Penrith can controll this game and make life very difficult for Parra. Frank Pritchard is back. He will destroy a team with lazy defense out wide. Jennings to score a hatrick.

[peterw111]

TONIGHTS GAMES

NRL

SOUTHS v ST GEORGE: Nice game to start the week off with... I'm leaning on the DRAGONS to take care of Souths and even the start isn't enough to sway me...In the end the defence of the DRAGONS should pave the victory...As always these games are special and anything can happen when these two teams clash but if the Dragons win well tonight it will be extra special...

TIP: ST GEORGE -6.5pts

TITANS v BRISBANE: Luckily for Sydney viewers this game is delayed until after the Souths/Dragon game so come 10.00pm tonight I will find something better to watch then this JUNK..... Who wins??.....Who really cares!!.....
OK then here goes... Titans are indeed the no-frills team of the competition and seem to stay in games for the whole 80mins...I just think the Broncos may have to many options to score and this could see them sneak home in a close one..

TIP: BRISBANE MARGIN 1-12pts

NOTE: In previewing tonight's game I read that Cronulla are expecting to miss Trent Barrett,Kade Snowden (only 50/50) and John Morris from the game against Manly. Already Manly -7.5pts has dropped to @$1.75... For those who are considering there weekend parlays lock this one in now...

AFL

ADELAIDE v GEELONG:How good has Adelaides form been over the last four-six weeks....TIME to find out.......Currently Adelaide have 22.5pts start... That equates to 4 goals or even 1 goal lead each quarter...Geelong can certainly beat Adelaide by 1 goal each quarter...I would have taken Adelaide if the start was closer to 31.5pts ( WISHFULL THINKING ) but at 22.5pts I.m staying clear....I'm still convinced Adelaide will be competitive tonight, but how do you really bet against Geelong...

TIP: GEELONG MARGIN UNDER 39.5pts

GOOD LUCK ALL TONIGHT......And if LUCK is what gets us home then GIVE ME ALL OF IT .....please

[Dr.Gonzo]

I'm going to take the Dragons -6 against a Bunnies side without Luke tonight.

I lean Brisbane in the other game but would prefer a Titans victory.

[Dr.Gonzo]

GOOD LUCK ALL TONIGHT......And if LUCK is what gets us home then GIVE ME ALL OF IT .....please

I'd rather be lucky than good