Tgm - nrl 2014

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Due to popular demand, I've decided to start my own topic.

Here is a link to the 2013 season:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/more-sports/2036816-tgms-nrl-spread-system-2013-a.html

For those on twitter, check out: @NRLProphets

Good luck to everyone and let's make some serious cash!

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Week 1

#1 Bulldogs/Broncos UNDER 39.5 @ $1.90 (BET 365) - 1 UNIT [WIN]
#2 Bulldogs ML @ $2.00 (TOM WATERHOUSE) - 1 UNIT [LOSS]
#3 Cowboys/Raiders OVER 41.5 @ $1.91 (SPORTSBET) - 1 UNIT [WIN]
#4 Panthers/Knights UNDER 42.5 @ $1.91 (BET 365) - 1 UNIT [WIN]
#5 Storm +6 @ $1.93 (PALMERBET) - 1 UNIT [WIN]
#6 Knights +2 @ $1.93 (PALMERBET) - 1 UNIT [LOSS]
#7 Sharks/Titans UNDER 40 @ $1.91 (BET 365) - 0.5 UNIT [WIN]

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Bets Placed: 7
Bets Won: 5
Bets Lost: 2
Strike Rate: 71%
Units Wagered: 6.5
Units Profit: 2.1
ROI: 32%

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Week 2

#8 Broncos +2.5 @ $1.90 (TAB) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#9 Dragons +10 @ $1.94 (LUXBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#10 Storm/Panthers UNDER 42 @ $1.91 (5 DIMES) - 0.5 UNIT - [WIN]
#11 Panthers TT UNDER 15.5 @ $1.90 (BET 365) - 0.5 UNIT - [LOSS]
#12 Roosters/Eels UNDER 46 @ $1.91 (BET 365) - 0.5 UNIT - [LOSS]
#13 Titans/Tigers UNDER 48 @ $1.91 (BET 365) - 0.5 UNIT - [LOSS]
#14 Tigers +10.5 @ $1.92 (SPORTSBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#15 Knights/Raiders OVER 41.5 @ $2.00 (LADBROKES) - 0.5 UNIT - [WIN]

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Week

Bets Placed: 8
Bets Won: 5
Bets Lost: 3
Strike Rate: 62%
Units Wagered: 5.5
Units Profit: 2.215
ROI: 40%

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YTD

Bets Placed: 15
Bets Won: 10
Bets Lost: 5
Strike Rate: 66%
Units Wagered: 12
Units Profit: 4.32
ROI: 36%

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Week 3

#16 Bulldogs +4.5 @ $1.92 (SPORTSBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#17 Sharks +5.5 @ $1.92 (SPORTSBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#18 Titans +7.5 @ $1.92 (LUXBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#19 Broncos/Roosters OVER 37.5 @ $1.90 (SPORTSBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#20 Sharks/Dragons UNDER 41.5 @ $1.90 (SPORTSBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]

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Week

Bets Placed: 5
Bets Won: 5
Bets Lost: 0
Strike Rate: 100%
Units Wagered: 5
Units Profit: 4.56
ROI: 91%

----------------------------------------------------------------------
YTD

Bets Placed: 20
Bets Won: 15
Bets Lost: 5
Strike Rate: 75%
Units Wagered: 17
Units Profit: 8.88
ROI: 52%

[elchucaro]

genial amigo!!! i follow

[snufflyjoe]

Good Stuff mate I'll be checking in Before the League tonight.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

I was waiting all weekend for a +12, but the line has stuck at 10 and 10.5.

Luxbet have Knights+11.5 at $1.94, so I am taking that.

I believe the weekend's trend will continue tonight where the underdog covers the line - making it 8/8.

I also think that for the knights to win the game will have to stay under. I expect them to look for touch as much as possible and wind the clock down. The poor handling evident so far this round will continue making the under more appealing. So far this round6 of 7 games have stayed under.

The Knights have a good record in Melbourne and beat the Storm there last year in the semis.

The Storm are also coming off a grueling match last week which they arguably should have lost and I think will be a little flat.
They also have an interstate game next week wich they will be looking ahead to.

UNDER 42 @ $1.91 (BET 365) - 1 UNIT
KNIGHTS+11.5 @ $1.94 (LUXBET) - 1 UNIT

[snufflyjoe]

Its gone up a point at sports bet 11.5 there as well

[Dr.Gonzo]

Good job starting off the season Mander.

I'm winning where it counts but I totally goofed my thread whilst you have just flat out owned.

Also on under 42 tonight, good luck.

[MrXYZ]

Good luck TGM. Killing it so far.

Agree with the look ahead, Storm have a short rest before Bulldogs on Saturday.

[snufflyjoe]

Is it back bad move to buy the point for this one? 1.94 for +11.5 1.76 for +12.5

Pretty confident that the knights can keep it within 10 but very confident they can keep it within 2 converted tries

[Donkey]

line has just gone up to 12 on luxbet @1.92

[Dr.Gonzo]

Is it back bad move to buy the point for this one? 1.94 for +11.5 1.76 for +12.5

Pretty confident that the knights can keep it within 10 but very confident they can keep it within 2 converted tries

Unless you know that it's +EV don't ever buy points.

Nowadays the regular line is almost always better.

[SportsMushroom]

well, you can get +12 @ 1.95 at pinnacle

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Unders was looking great until BJ Leilua lost the ball from a scrum win and the Storm scored from the mistake. No wonder the Roosters let him go. He is prone to some brain explosions.
The floodgates opened after that.

The knights and the refs did their best to help the storm cover the start near the death, but it stayed at 8 and we didn't need the extra .5 points.

1-1 on the night.

All underdogs won at the spread this round.

[Dr.Gonzo]

2^8 = 256

I can't remember the last time that happened.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Good job starting off the season Mander.

I'm winning where it counts but I totally goofed my thread whilst you have just flat out owned.

Also on under 42 tonight, good luck.

Thanks for the kind words lads.

A little thin this week at first glance.
Probably not much in terms of spreads - may have a few totals.

Good luck TGM. Killing it so far.

Agree with the look ahead, Storm have a short rest before Bulldogs on Saturday.

<br>
<br>

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Battle of the spoon on Sunday.
Fifita back for Sharks, but they lose gun winger Feki.

Knights are struggling and I can't see this being a blowout.

First play of the round:

Sharks +6.5 @ $1.91 (TOM WATERHOUSE) - 1 UNIT

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Week 3

#16 Bulldogs +4.5 @ $1.92 (SPORTSBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#17 Sharks +5.5 @ $1.92 (SPORTSBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#18 Titans +7.5 @ $1.92 (LUXBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#19 Broncos/Roosters OVER 37.5 @ $1.90 (SPORTSBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#20 Sharks/Dragons UNDER 41.5 @ $1.90 (SPORTSBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#21 Knights +11.5 @ $1.94 (LUXBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#22 Storm/Knights UNDER 42 @ $1.91 (BET 365) - 1 UNIT - [LOSS]

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Week

Bets Placed: 7
Bets Won: 6
Bets Lost: 1
Strike Rate: 86%
Units Wagered: 7
Units Profit: 4.50
ROI: 64%

----------------------------------------------------------------------
YTD

Bets Placed: 22
Bets Won: 16
Bets Lost: 6
Strike Rate: 73%
Units Wagered: 19
Units Profit: 8.82
ROI: 46%

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Week 4

#23 Sharks +6.5 @ $1.91 (TOM WATERHOUSE) - 1 UNIT
#24 Broncos +2.5 @ $1.92 (SPORTSBET) - 1 UNIT
#25 Titans +4.5 @ $1.92 (LUXBET) - 1 UNIT
#26 Warriors/Tigers UNDER 46 @ $1.90 (SPORTSBET) - 1 UNIT
#27 Knights/Sharks UNDER 42.5 @ $1.91 (BET 365) - 1 UNIT

[s2230011]

Like Brisbane today ... first test for the Dragons attack, dont think they can cause the Broncose defence much trouble.

[elchucaro]

first green of the week !!!

[Tim Gerry Mander]

first green of the week !!!

muchos gracias amigo

[bartlomiej1978]

Why you like Warriors-Tigers under mate?

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Farah might not play
Tigers have been scoring freely last few weeks, expect a bit of a let down.
Mateo is out for the warriors who is good for 10 offloads and 10 errors a game. With him missing, the under is a good shot being set at such a high number.
Both sides kickers are all over the shop, not very consistent. Johnson could go 1/4 conversions.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Everything was looking good at 12-0 Tigers just 8 minutes from half-time.
Then the Tigers forgot how to defend and the Warriors piled on 8 tries to 1 in just over 55 minutes (nearly a point a minute).

Big game today will decide if we have a good or poor weekend!
Will the Knights be up for it?
Lots of talk they'll be playing "for Alex".
Fifita has come out and said he should have gone to Union instead of signing for the Bulldogs.
If the Sharks get trounced here, that's their season done and dusted.

The upsets just keep coming though - 4 out of 5 underdogs have won this week.

[MrXYZ]

Another upset with the Raiders smashing Souths.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Well the Knights did indeed lift for Alex.

Lucky for us the Sharks tightened up their defence and there was only 1 try in the 2nd half to help cash the UNDER.

Let's see how the Titans fare tomorrow.

[elchucaro]

congrats!!! titans win!!!

[Tim Gerry Mander]

One of the worst games of league I've watched in a long time.
Both teams guilty of poor handling and offering nothing in attack.
Highly doubt either of these teams make the top 8 this year.
The Cowboys pack is a myth. Apart from taumalolo, the rest are just plodding along like donkeys.
Winning week, so can't complain.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Week 4

#23 Sharks +6.5 @ $1.91 (TOM WATERHOUSE) - 1 UNIT - [LOSS]
#24 Broncos +2.5 @ $1.92 (SPORTSBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#25 Titans +4.5 @ $1.92 (LUXBET) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]
#26 Warriors/Tigers UNDER 46 @ $1.90 (SPORTSBET) - 1 UNIT - [LOSS]
#27 Knights/Sharks UNDER 42.5 @ $1.91 (BET 365) - 1 UNIT - [WIN]

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Week

Bets Placed: 5
Bets Won: 3
Bets Lost: 2
Strike Rate: 60%
Units Wagered: 5
Units Profit: 0.75
ROI: 15%

----------------------------------------------------------------------
YTD

Bets Placed: 27
Bets Won: 19
Bets Lost: 8
Strike Rate: 70%
Units Wagered: 24
Units Profit: 9.57
ROI: 40%

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Week 5

#28 Sharks +4.5 @ $1.92 (LUXBET) - 2 UNITS
#29 Raiders +6 @ $1.92 (IASBET) - 1 UNIT
#30 Titans +11.5 @ $1.92 (PALMERBET) - 1 UNIT

[yippa82]

Tgm do you think the bulldogs have a chance to cover on Friday night? Just from watching both teams last week the doggies looked like a well drilled unit compared to the premiers especially in the attacking 20.....

[Tim Gerry Mander]

The line looks a little short for my liking.
SBW in is a big plus for the Chooks and he tore the Dogs apart in both games last year.
I wouldn't read too much into last week's result. The Storm actually started well and were 10-0 up. The Dogs still have issues with the high ball and their attack has looked pedestrian against organized defences (Broncos/Panthers).
I like the look of Klemmer - he gives them plenty of punch in the ruck when he's on.
JWH is a big out for the chooks and their prop rotation looks a little thin.
The Roosters will be looking to bounce back after last weeks loss and the result may hinge on how the referees react to last weeks spray from coach Robinson.
May have a play on the total but for mine there are better spots this week.

[Shazzadude]

To the State MP for Everton, what's your reasoning behind taking the Sharks? Their good record against the Warriors in recent times?