RealDeal AFL 2014

[therealdealau]

Hey guys,

I had an interrupted AFL season last year as I went to America for 4 months and missed most the season, this year I'm completely grounded in Perth for work reasons and will be committing to putting in a lot of effort this AFL season.

For those who are interested I am a big Fremantle Docker supporter and have been supporting them since I moved to Australia from Europe. I am a member and have been to the majority of the Dockers home games HOWEVER this season I have decided to go halves with my partners parents in a membership simply because I was sick of starring into the sun every weekend (their seats are on the opposite side of the ground).

My capping doesn't have a set style, I like stats but at the end of the day I would say I am more of a situational/matchup kind of guy. I usually only play spreads and straight up ML however this season I'm going to incorporate some DT/player props into my arsenal.

I also like to name drop for some laughs, I went to school with some prominent footballers and my capping mentor is the great Sando who gives me advice and insight on the game often. Does this make me any better than anyone else? Hell no, but it makes me feel special.

Let's have a great season full of discussion and winners.

Cheers.

[therealdealau]

Preseason Futures

2x G. Ablett Most Goals for Suns (+300/$4.00 @ Sportsbet)

Last season Ablett scored the most goals for the Suns, he had spells in the forward line and scored a handful of goals out of stoppages. This season Mckenna mentioned that Gary would spend more time in the forward line, this combined with his stats from last season has me salivating at this future.

2x T. Rockliff Most DT Points for Lions (-125/$1.80 @ Sportsbet)

Rockcliff is a DT stud, he is a ball magnet and is a rock for the Lions and will undoubtably be as important this season. He comfortably topped the Lions DT scores last season and I see this trend continuing.

2x P. Dangerfield Most DT Points for Crows (+150/$2.50 @ Sportsbet)

Whilst Dangerfield only slightly topped the Crows DT scores last season I believe he will take his game to another level this season. With a revamped lineup and the pending return of Tex, Dangerfield will take it upon himself to ensure his team has the greatest chance of making finals.

1x L. Montagna Most DT Points for Saints (+125/$2.25 @ Sportsbet)

Montagna is getting a great price here, although suspended for a game I still think he is a shoe in to top the points over at the falling Saints. Jack Stevens is the biggest threat and he is out for awhile with an injury leaving Nick Reiwoldt as the only other contender. I'm cautious because I believe Nick will have a great season with no pressure on him anymore however the Saints will have less shots at goal this season, Montagna will be at every stoppage and will provide his elite DT scores as usual.

[therealdealau]

Loving the sports bet promotion for Round 1 and 2, if your team is leading at any break (quarter) and then go on to lose the match refund head to head bets.

[MustWinPlease]

will you guys beat the pies?

[therealdealau]

will you guys beat the pies?

Honestly, I'm not sure.

[therealdealau]

Round 1

1x Sydney Swans -46.5 ($1.92 @ Sportsbet)
1x Sydney Swans 1H -21.5 ($1.90 @ Sportsbet)

[NewYorkKnicks87]

Ouch, note though nobody would of called GWS either!

[therealdealau]

Ouch, note though nobody would of called GWS either!

Damn that was brutal, good on the Giants though.

[therealdealau]

1x Travis Boak Over 24.5 Dispoals ($1.91 @ Centrebet)

[Coopertrooper]

Good spot on Boak, should be at 26.5 I would have thought.

[therealdealau]

Good spot on Boak, should be at 26.5 I would have thought.

Yeah I thought so too but he's had a poor first quarter.

[Coopertrooper]

Got it in his hands 5 times but could only get the 3 disposals, which is a killer. He'll need to string a good half together now, hopefully he can.

[therealdealau]

Got it in his hands 5 times but could only get the 3 disposals, which is a killer. He'll need to string a good half together now, hopefully he can.

that was painful, real tough start to the year for me !

[Coopertrooper]

He should have got 2 free kicks in the last few minutes which would have got him there too, very stiff.

[therealdealau]

1x Essendon +13.5 ($1.91 @ centrebet)
1x Essendon ML ($2.55 @ sportsbet)

1x Hawks -45.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)

[johno35]

GL mate, I like Bombers too

[therealdealau]

1x Demons -6.5 ($1.91 @centrebet)

I'll bite.

[therealdealau]

1.5x West Coast -29.5 ($1.92 @ centrebet)

[therealdealau]

Round 1 Results

1x Sydney Swans -46.5 ($1.92 @ Sportsbet)
1x Sydney Swans 1H -21.5 ($1.90 @ Sportsbet)
1x Travis Boak Over 24.5 Dispoals ($1.91 @ Centrebet)
1x Essendon +13.5 ($1.91 @ centrebet)
1x Essendon ML ($2.55 @ sportsbet)
1x Hawks -45.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1x Demons -6.5 ($1.91 @centrebet)
1.5x West Coast -29.5 ($1.92 @ centrebet)

4-4 / +0.76 Units

[therealdealau]

Round 2

1x Richmond 1-39 ($2.25 @ sportsbet)
1x Richmond 1H -5.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)

1x Hawthorne 1-39 ($2.25 @ sportsbet)

1x St Kilda ML ($2.00 @ sportsbet)

1.5x Port Adelaide ML ($1.70 @ sportsbet)
1x Port Adelaide -6.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)

[therealdealau]

Flawless round! Might have a play for sunday.

[johno35]

Good stuff buddy

[Coopertrooper]

Good work! Looks like a good weekend all around so far

[therealdealau]

Adding

1x Geelong 1H -11.5 ($1.91 @ sportsbet)
1x North Melb 1Q -5.5 ($1.91 @ sportsbet)

[GunnerCrow09]

well played RealDeal. Nicely done !!!

[therealdealau]

well played RealDeal. Nicely done !!!

Thanks pal

[therealdealau]

Round 2

1x Richmond 1-39 ($2.25 @ sportsbet)
1x Richmond 1H -5.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)

1x Hawthorne 1-39 ($2.25 @ sportsbet)

1x St Kilda ML ($2.00 @ sportsbet)

1.5x Port Adelaide ML ($1.70 @ sportsbet)
1x Port Adelaide -6.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)

1x Geelong 1H -11.5 ($1.91 @ sportsbet)
1x North Melb 1Q -5.5 ($1.91 @ sportsbet)

Round 2 Outcome: 7-1 +6.28 Units

AFL Record: 11-5 / +7.04 Units

[johno35]

Great round well done!

[therealdealau]

Round 3

1x Fremantle +8.5 ($1.93 @ sportsbet)
1x Ballantyne Over 1.5 Goals ($3.00 @ sportsbet)

Obviously I am a Docker supporter but like most I try and keep a unbiased and level head when approaching my own side, after all I love my side but I love money as well and I don't want to throw it away. Fremantle started as underdogs then moved to the favourite and then moved back to the underdog with the news regarding key players Fyfe/Barlow/Dawson. The Hawks welcome back Mitchell and are coming off a spirited last minute clutch win over the Bombers. Personally I think Fremantle have shown more intensity in their games and the boys will definitely be up for a grand final rematch. Ballantyne will be out for revenge and to stamp out his poor performance from the minds of all the Dockers supporters, I think the special Sportsbet is offering is great value and I expect him to have enough chances to convert this wager. Ibbo is a great in, he is in our best 22 and although he might have been out of AFL for awhile he should adjust fine as he is a role player, Silvagni will slot fine in the backline as he made a handful of appearances last year when McPharlin was out I believe there will be no issues there. Barlow is the hardest player to replace in my opinion because he is a tackling-hard ball winning machine however Lachie Neale is a great emerging talent and will be pumped for an opportunity to state a case for his position in the side. I love the attacking changes Fremantle have made this season and I believe they are building on a preseason training camp that focused on a fluid offensive style, transitioning the great defense into a swift inside 50 on the other end, this was show cased in round 1 however due to the rain it was difficult to see in round 2 vs the Suns. However so far Fremantle are leading the inside 50 count and are also the best defensive side throughout two rounds, all small sample size but it shows what Fremantle are trying to do. If the Fremantle players can get first use of the ball via Sandilands (who is in career form again, love to see this) I believe they can pressure the Hawks on the scoreboard and use the structured defensive scheme to win the game.

1.5x Richmond ML + Geelong ML ($2.27 @ sportsbet)

1x Gold Coast Suns -4.5 (1.92 @sportsbet)

1x Sydney Swans ML ($1.80 @ sportsbet)

1x Port Adelaide ML ($1.83 @ sportsbet)

[TEAMSPORTS]

agree with your assesment of freo, what is the market called to get ballantyne over 1.5? love that bet cant seem to find it atm... so many damn markets

[therealdealau]

Adding:

1x Richmond -15.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1x Richmond 1H -7.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)
1x Richmond 1Q -3.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)

[therealdealau]

Adding:

1.5x Carlton Blues +14.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1x Carlton Blues 1-39 ($3.30 @ sportsbet)

[therealdealau]

Terrible round for me, Richmond/Carlton destroyed me.

1x Fremantle +8.5 ($1.93 @ sportsbet)
1x Ballantyne Over 1.5 Goals ($3.00 @ sportsbet) 1.5x Richmond ML + Geelong ML ($2.27 @ sportsbet)
1x Gold Coast Suns -4.5 (1.92 @sportsbet)
1x Sydney Swans ML ($1.80 @ sportsbet)
1x Port Adelaide ML ($1.83 @ sportsbet)
1x Richmond -15.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1x Richmond 1H -7.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)
1x Richmond 1Q -3.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)
1.5x Carlton Blues +14.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1x Carlton Blues 1-39 ($3.30 @ sportsbet)

2-9 // -7 Units

AFL Record: 13-14 / +0.04 Units

[therealdealau]

Round 4

After a disaster Round 3 I will be looking at bouncing back here.

1x Collingwood -8.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)

1x Carlton 1Q -8.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)
1x Carlton 1H -17.5 ($1.90 @ sportsbet)
2x Carlton -37.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)

I really like Carlton in this spot against the Dees, the biggest reason being although Carlton have had a terrible start, they have had promising moments (minus the lack of goal finishing) however the Demons have just been horrible. Carlton's 3 losses have come against top 8 contenders in which namely in the Richmond game have shown passages of what could be. I think Carlton will use this game as a turning point in their ability and confidence, they will take all the pain of the first 3 weeks of the season out on Melbourne.

1x Geelong -25.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)
1x Geelong 1H -12.5 (1.90 @ sportsbet)

1x Sydney 1-39 ($2.10 @ sportsbet)

1x Adelaide 1-39 ($2.35 @ sportsbet)
3x Adelaide -5.5 ($1.92 @ sportsbet)

[TEAMSPORTS]

Like your selections, I got on Carlton earlier in the week also, justn a lot more upside if they can improve their performance, also scored 220 odd in 3 losses compared to melbs 120 odd, melbs simply cannot score atm. Adelaide should be the much better team and should cover -5.5 but Im not playing that one, will prob go for geelong halftime and fulltime, i cant remember exactly but I think last 4-5 games between these 2 at kardinya park has been 40+ to geelong, this is a much improved eagles line up but losing their in form small forward in lecras could hurt them over there although josh hill is a decent replacement if he plays. Also sydney 1-39 and collingwood minus 8.5 will play for one unit each. good luck for weekend