not sure if iam cursed, made a live bet on brumbies at ht and they lose.,.. i have lost every single bet today somehow...
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going to play
0.5x either team under 6.5 in melbourne/raiders game $3 centrebet
-melbourne will try to end their losing streak and raiders are very very solid at home. however i think melbourne will be very competitive with their good record at canberra, should be a tight contest.
PS: with my current record please consider yourselves.Comment -
hey guys, first apology for some pathetic plays. nothing went my way last weekend but lets turn it around this week which looks like a fairly predictable tipping round.
going to play some round specials first, i will post single match plays before games start.
Leading points scorer for THIS round:
looking at the games i expect the inform sides to decimate bottom 8 and out of form sides. round begins with melb/souths. historically this game has been low scoring and both are quality sides that will try to keep this tight. i dont see smith scoring more than 10 points as he rarely scores tries whilst a reynolds wont score more than 8 points from goals. parra/tigers looks to be high scoring however benji is a poor goalkicker whilst parra's goalkicker (not 100% sure with hayne's return rumoured he may kick) mullaney has NEVER scored more than 10 points in a game. sharks/knights and manly/warriors look to be tight matches as teams are on the same level as each other, warriors will stay competitive knowing they need to win to make the 8. broncos/dragons, scott prince wont score more than 10-12 points whilst dugan will not score more than 10 without two tries. bulldogs/titans i expect bulldogs to demolish titans, however trent hodkinson needs a try to score over 10-12 points (he rarely scores try) and hes goalkicking has been hit/miss last couple of weeks. this leaves roosters/canberra and nqld/panthers
0.6 x James Maloney ($7 sportsbet)
-roosters have been demolishing inferior opposition and they will win by 20+ if they play at their current form. raiders are horrible on the road and with internal issues surrounding milford's release, fergo's 1st game back, all signs point to a poor performance. i expect roosters to put at least 4-5 tries on them and maloney has a knack of scoring in blowouts. i think he is the best bet for leading point scorer this round.
0.4 x thurston ($11 sportsbet)
-last week cowboys turned up with a completely different team. they were ruthless and clinical putting 5 tries on south which is not an easy task. they must win all their games to play finals and hanging onto that thread of hope, they will perform this week. they are playing a panther's team with BIG outs in highmen plum, docker, sika manu. panthers pack is pretty much relying on tim grant and with the likes of tamou/scott/tsims/taumololo cowboys are too big too strong too fast for depleted panthers. daniela in ctrs doesnt help penrith either. i think this game has a good chance of being a blowout and thursto might snatch a try. so making the minor play here
note: sometimes this market is available after friday night games so if you think players on friday night might score big, you can wait until after those games, however odds change dramaticallyComment -
1x roosters/raiders second half over 21.5 points $1.90 centrebetComment -
not promoting or anything but..
all NRL punters living in australia get a Centrebet account
-centre bet allows you to make bets on 2nd half of nrl games during the half time break without calling them up . such bets include 2nd half total points,h2h, line, first tryscorer 2nd half etc. this is very convenient for hedging or simply placing a bet if you are unable to access the phone. if you are watching the first half you will get a feel for the game and some of the lines they make are very inaccurate and simply reflects what has happened first half. eg If first half was lowing scoring, the total points for 2nd half will also be low. these lines are very easy to exploit as some teams tend to blowout their opposition in the 2nd half eg. manly in the last couple of weeks and bulldogs.
feel free to comment, cheersComment -
ill try it at man/nz 1/2 time, its not afl as tried for ess/wc 1/2 time but wouldnt accept the wager. cheersComment -
c/b still will not take nrl 1/2 bets online ??Comment -
you have to make the best for 2nd half during the half time breakComment -
yes mate like i said i tried at 1/2 time online in the bris/saints game but no joyComment -
i placed an over 20.5 2nd half total during the cowboys halftime, maybe try again tomorrow?Comment -
this market is part of the "NRL ROUND SPECIALS" market called "leading point scorer(for the round)." Basically theres a bunch of players who most likely kick goals as well and different prices based on what they are perceived to score eg. odds ishorter if they are up against parramatta :P Theres no point going on the "any other player" as unless that random player scores more than 4 tries, he won't outscore the person with highest points who also kicks goals. if its a tie eg. two players both scoring highest 12 points for the round, basically your winnings is divided by two (equal to number of players tied). this is the sportsbet rule iam not sure about other bookies. eg. if you put i unit on each of maloney and jt, and that they tied highest at end of round, you get 4 units (1 unit stake + 3 unit which is half of potential winnings) return from the maloney bet and 6 units from the JT bet.
this is one of the most underplayed and WAAAAAAYYY over the value markets as the shortest odd players are at least $6Comment -
10-14 -3.5 units.
not a great record on posted plays but hopefully break even this weekend. some very unlucky losses but thats gamblingComment -
0.5 x Josh morris Man of the Match $6 luxbet
-playing fb, should have scored 3 last week but nuffed it up. playing 150th game this week will score against a titans outfit. watch him destroy titans tonightComment -
1x over 22.5 points bulldogs/titans 2nd half $1.9 @ CentrebetComment -
13-15 -0.43 units
alright Maloney/JT highest came through but stupid gordon has to score a hattrick to cut down our profits. still roughly 3units of profit off 1 unit invest which is awesome. should have been 8units if gordon didnt score a hattrick.
miracle penalty covers the 2nd half overs but doggies were not good enough to secure the win. some bad reffing, some awesome performances by titan players and some poor efforts from dogs. Jmoz tried but you aren't going to get MOTM in a losing team and there were others more deserving.Comment -
Alright looking at some betting history ive actually hit highest point scorer and most goals in game (afl) at odds of $6+ more successfully than single bets like lines and totals. i think come this end of the season for NRL, AFL there will be plenty of upsets as teams hang onto hopes of playing finals whilst injuries have crippled some quality teams. Some players will be looking to lift their teams during games and putting in big performances especially with key personal missing. identifying these situations is the key. ill try to post more plays of odds $5+ from now on focused on player performance and exoticsComment -
early leans of the week
0.5 x todd carney leading point scorer for the round @$11 sportsbet
-plays dragons without dugan merrin, should carve them up
sharks -10.5
dragons TTU 14.5
manly H2H
warriors 13+
will post writeups + final plays closer to gameComment -
1x eels +14.5 $1.90 sportsbet (anywhere really)
-the last time eels lost by more than 15 to the broncos was in 2009 rd7. with hayne back, eels are a completely different team as he makes everyone around him play with confidence. broncos were unable to smash a dragons outfit who were without merrin in the last quarter and with hodges, their strike weapon, missing, their attack does not look very threatening. i think eels should cover the line quite easily if they play as well as they did last week.
*for those with centrebet, you can get "specials" broncos 13+ $2.5 and eels +12.5 $2.1 $100 max bet. so basically this is a free $10 or $50 if broncos go 13+ i always like free money
1x Brent Kite over 75.5metres ($1.88 sportsbet)
- has made this in 9/11 games with one game he got rested and play only 23mins (against eels) so he did not make it. will be a tight game with souths and will be a game between the forwards. he needs to provide the go forward and 75.5 m for a starting prop is just ridiculous.
0.5 x manly 1-12 ($2.85 centrebet)
- souths vs manly will be a tight contest. souths should have kept it to within 12 against storm last week if they didnt give away a free try (dropping ball in goal). however i think manly are in much better form currently and losing in their last encounter they will be more determined to win. souths have sutton and inglis back and i think it will take time for them to adjust.Comment -
where is that special?!Comment -
1-2 -0.5 units for the night.
kite is on 70m, might update to over but counting as a loss. thx to refs giving 9-3 penalty count to souths, it was hard for manly to get any possession and hence kite's low metres. two tries denied, one of which was definitely a try and ridiculous bias in penalty cost manly the win. can't beat the refs.Comment -
1x roosters -12.5 second half $1.9 centrebet
-roosters always tight first half and blowout second halfComment -
15-17 broke even on posted plays.Comment -
Haven't been on for awhile but here is a play to kick off:
1x freo h2h win $2.25 sb
-even though freo is massively resting, i don't think st kilda's roster bar their top 3,4 players are even close to the class of freo team. st kilda's attack is not very dangerous and freo likes to grind out games. they still have powerhouses in pavlich etc.Comment -
1x jason nightingale over 115.5m $1.65 sportsbet
-playing FB, up against eels has made it in all his wins bar one against knights (low scoring)
edit: price crashed
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Inspired by the Middle Man
-$100 x Ryan hoffman over 22.5 tackles $1.87 luxbet
-$100 x ryan hoffman under 25.5 tackles $1.88 sportsbet
if he makes 22 tackles or less we lose $12, if he makes 26 tackles or more we lose $13, if he makes 23,24,25 tackles we make $175
he has made 23-25 tackles 10/21 times this season and risking $13 for $175 at slightly less then 50% success rate is value
zzz, odds changed immensly over 22.5 is now $1.65, ignoreComment -
Hoffman 23 tackles with under 5 to go
Hope it hits for you!Comment -
i think it would of paid at 80 mins?
Most market do bar H2H i think.
I thought you were telling everyone else the odds had changed after you put it on!Comment -
BIG PLAY:
4.5 x under 135.5metres ken sio $1.87 at luxbet
-hes named to play centres with hayne returning to fb. line is inflated especially against a knights outfit who will dominate themComment -
Normal plays 15-19 -2.43 units
Big plays: 1-0+3.96 units
Havn't been on a great run since i started posting half way through the season. Coming towards end of regular season for nrl and afl, games seem to be less predictable. Ill take this experience with me into the future.
The finals series of NRL is upon us and with finals games, they are similar to origin games. By this I mean they are played with intensity and players actually want to be there to win. Also coaching decisions are more fixed and consistent regarding player minutes and resting of players. This helps alot for NRL player prop plays which i will be focusing on during finals series.
There are also markets for most tackles, most metres, most points during finals series and i will be looking into these markets as they offer great odds.Comment
