Gonzo Sports

[Dr.Gonzo]

Season Update:

23-23 +11.69

Melbourne created enough chances to win that game but uncharacteristically failed in their execution.

I thought Bennett's cut and run was going to bury me looking at the start of that Newcastle game but luckily they recovered and the difference between the two teams was evident by the end.


NRL Round 18 continued

1* Panthers ML @1.69


NRL Futures

2* Warriors @16

I actually took 17 myself before their games against Parra but 16 is the best I could see from a quick search (b3t3zy) so for the purpose of record keeping it'l be 16.

They've won 7 from their last 9 and look much more likely to fulfill their potential since McFadden has taken over the coaching role. This side had a good combination of power and creativity and are a sneaky chance to finish in the top 4 from my analysis of the draw. You can poke holes in this side but I can do the same for the top 4 teams as well and you're getting 3 times the price.

Manly: forward pack looks average and they are vulnerable through the middle. Watmough is going to have to be phenomenal when he comes back.

Easts: best rooster in the comp but they are lacking that killer instinct that saw them lift the trophy last season. Mini looks like he is past it this season and the halves are dreadfully out of form.

Canterbury: tough side but the backline is average apart from Morris and the halves are overrated. Look too dour at times.

Souths: don't deliver under the pressure of finals football. Their game is not conducive to producing an outstanding level of play as they are so robotic. Inglis goes missing in finals and Luke is easily worked out.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Had a weird feeling Penrith were going to win that game by 1 point, that's why I took the ML instead of laying the 2.5. Moving forward I think Penrith will do it tough, they're over achieving.

Season Update:

24-23 +12.38

[Dr.Gonzo]

Early leans for round 19, only really considering spread betting at present (please weigh in if you have an opinion, was alot more discussion on here last season)

Parra v Souths: Parra with the points or passing. Resting Hayne was a poor call from the coach in my opinion, tells the players they are not expected to win this game, might pay to just forget it. Good record at home and hoping for a bounce back, Hayne back in is huge. Parra do look to be on the slide though, which is a major concern.

Cronulla v NQ: Passing. Cronulla can't win, NQ can't win away.

Easts v Penrith: Easts minus the points, laying less than 10 looks OK at first glance. Off the bye I'm hoping coach Robinson can have Easts ready to produce. Penrith's defence on Monday night was bordering non existent, if Easts are focused and execute well this could be a blow out.

Melbourne v Canberra: Passing.

Brisbane v NZ: NZ with the 2.5 or ML. NZ in form but must take a tough road trip, were able to put 50 points on Brisbane away last season so that is a positive indicator.

Newcastle v GC: Passing.

Wests v Canterbury: Passing.

St.George v Manly: St.George with the points, attractive at more than 6 would love 8. Monday night home dog, in form. I worry about St.George against dominant forward packs but Manly have looked ordinary in recent weeks.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

I can't believe Storm are giving the Raiders 12.5 points

Eels have been formidable at home but their depth is now getting seriously tested.

If the warriors are serious contenders, they have to win this game. Beating up on shit teams at home is one thing - you need to back it up and so far they have struggled, especially in that game against the Rabbits in Perth.

[Dr.Gonzo]

You're probably right about Canberra, it looks too many so I'd rather take them than lay them, but the big 3 were backing up from SOO so Melbourne must be expected to execute better with a superior preparation this week.

I saw positive signs in that Souths game, they were fired up and dominated the game early but failed to execute and ended up gassing out at the end of the game. Execution has been looking better and you can make excuses given the travelling to Perth: game time/body clock. They have been able to beat NQ and Melbourne away from home this season but I tend to agree this is bordering on a must win game.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Decided to take a few early lines

NRL Round 19

1* Parra +6.5 @1.90
1* Easts -8.5 @1.90
1* Newcastle -8 @1.91

I was not aware Tupou would be out injured for the Easts game when I posted my leans, otherwise it would be a larger play. Also, forgot it was the rise for Alex week, so taking that into consideration I can have something on a line that will definitely be higher at game time, re Newcastle.

[Tim Gerry Mander]

Don't mind the eels play as they have been money at home this season, however the Rabbits are one of the away teams in the comp this year. Should be interesting.

The Roosters have been bad this season and their record is actually better than what it should be as they have caught teams at the best possible times. With so many injuries on both sides, it is very hard to get a lean either way.

The knights game opened at 6.5 and has been hit out to 10.5 with some books. The Titans are arguable THE best away team, having only lost two games on the road and failing to cover in just one of those. I had this game at about 6 then add a couple of points for the McKinnon factor. It is a no play for mine, and if the line keeps rising the temptation is there to back the Titans ATS.

[Domestic]

Wow, Newcastle already out to -12.

[Dr.Gonzo]

NRL Round 19 continued

2* NZ ML @1.95

[Dr.Gonzo]

Warriors are soft... in the head.

[Dr.Gonzo]

1* Parra +2 @1.94

[Dr.Gonzo]

1* Dogs -4 @1.96

[Dr.Gonzo]

5* NZ +1.5 @1.92

It was a disappointing effort last week but that is probably a good preparation because they should be focused back at home. I expect them to go through the middle of the Manly side a lot easier than expected.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Didn't know SJ would be out.

Halves completely fell apart, would have gone close if he had played, might have got run over on the wire but would have been close.

Ball control horrible.

Perhaps, I've been a little to optimistic with NZ.

[Dr.Gonzo]

1*Canberra O15.5 points @1.85
1*Canberra +8.5 @2

[Dr.Gonzo]

It seems every team I back recently can't hold the ball and the halves butcher any chances they get.

[Dr.Gonzo]

At least I got a backdoor cover on the over, it works to complain

[Dr.Gonzo]

NRL Round 21

1*NZ ML @1.74
1*NZ -2.5 @1.97
1*NZ -3.5/O44.5 @3.6
1*Souths -9.5/O43.5 @3.6

[Dr.Gonzo]

NRL Season Update:

31-29 +11.98

[Dr.Gonzo]

Lots of double digit spreads this week, does anyone like any of the dogs for the cover or upset?

[Dr.Gonzo]

3 of the 4 dogs covered

1 of the 4 dogs caused an upset

1 game left

[Dr.Gonzo]

NRL R23

1* Souths -8 @2
0.5* Souths -8/O38.5 @3.60

Lets not get over excited about Brisbane belting a Canterbury side who looks to be shot at home. Souths look too strong at home, should be well officiated as per usual, and I'm sure coach McGuire doesn't want flat performances in the finals rounds leading towards the playoffs.

[Domestic]

Nice one mate.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Nice one mate.

Thankyou sir.

[Dr.Gonzo]

NRL R23 continued

1* Parra O18.5 @1.88

Canterbury come into this game off a 4 week losing sequence where the opponent covered this prop ever time, I was thoroughly unimpressed with their defense last week against Brisbane.

[Martinr]

Who would've picked these two teams being in 8th and 9th spot 4 weeks ago? And the Eels favourites to beat them here. Crazy. The Dogs look as though they've thrown the season away these last 4 weeks, and Reynolds missing tonight through suspension isn't going to help. Jarryd Hayne is on fire.
You're probably doing the right thing by taking a team total rather than a side because with their season on the line you'd have to think the Dogs will be hard to beat here. I'm sticking with the AFL tonight because I just can't bring myself to put money on this game. I think it'll be close, but so does the market.
Good luck.

Cats v Carlton
Over 193.5 Total Match Score @-110.
Cats -13.5 @-108

The Cats have plenty of motivation to win well here and challenge for a Top 2 finish. They have won their last 12 games against Carlton at Docklands. The Total looks good to hit 200 with 4 of the past 5 at this ground going over that score. Steve Johnson and Jimmy Bartel are out for Geelong so they're significantly weakened in the midfield. Tom Hawkins is a good chance to win the Coleman and he'll be a target all night. Carlton are unchanged as I write this. I like the Cats to win, and to cover. The line of just -12.5 reflects Carlton's recent good form and Geelong's missing midfielders. Carlton have won 3 of their last 5, but the two losses were against Top 4 teams.
I'm going to this game if I can get a good walk-up seat. First game of the year for me.

[Dr.Gonzo]

2* NZ -3 @1.91 (b3tcr1s)
NZ need to win, Johnson back in is a huge positive. Newcastle were very lucky last week, small pack so NZ should be able to dominate field possession.

1* Manly -9.5 @2 (punt1ngp4l, p4lm3rb3t, t0psp0rt)
Souths exposed Manly up the guts last week but the GC don't have the forwards to go through them.

[Dr.Gonzo]

*5 Easts -3.5 @1.92 (B3T3ZY or UN1B3T)

Easts coming good at the right time of the year.

[Dr.Gonzo]

NRL FUTURES

*5 Sydney Roosters @4.5 Premiership (un1b3t)
*2 Sydney Roosters/Canterbury Bulldogs @8.5 Grand final quinella (un1b3t)

[Dr.Gonzo]

Easts should be favorites against Souths, this is such a square market.

[Dr.Gonzo]

I'm a little handicapped because I'm already heavily invest on the Roosters but this game is my strongest play of the year.

Roosters have beaten them easily in the last two big games they have played, Round 26 to decided the minor premiership the last two years. Souths come into this game off 40 minutes of football against a shot Manly whilst Easts have had too solid hitouts, the reason you want a rest is to avoid injury and the possibility of losing but I'd rather have played last week leading into this game. Souths were well beaten by North Queensland and Easts, I don't accept they are suddenly back in form because of the Manly game, Souths really lack a platform for this game.

The reason North Queensland got back into the game was because the Easts bench were woeful, Napa back in with Friend much fitter for the run are huge positives. Mini has also been carrying an injury which restricted him from training, this is significant because he produced his two worst games, but he has had a full week of training leading into this. But if we actually look at the North Queesland game we find they had 54% of possession and only made 4 errors (including the Lui knock on at the death), North Queensland are the best attacking team in the comp this is a huge performance if you can get the timing of the points out of your mind. A positive to take out of the game was Easts ability to stop the rot once the score was 30-30, North Queensland failed to score a point in the last 20 minutes, to hault their momentum and fight back showed true courage, they have some serious mental toughness.

The biggest danger is the penalty count, but the penalty count has been very low during the finals series so a large differential would be a unexpected. I really believe Easts should be -5.5 point favorites in this game and I give them a good chance of winning in a blowout.

[Dr.Gonzo]

5* Roosters ML@2.25

[binomial]

GL hopefully it is a cracking game.

[Martinr]

Good Luck Dr.Gonzo.
The Roosters sure do look a solid outfit. Not sure which side to back yet but I'll take your thoughts into consideration.

[aussieH]

Good write up. I am going to play the over and Sydney in the h2h to use sportsbet promo