Looking good TGM, some massive underdogs this weekend which have no doubt been pushed out way too far and are offering good value...
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Eels i am on for a unit. Tigers line is too juicy to pass up . having a good look at dragons though. Knights is my best for the week thoughComment -
Cheers Rohan, there is certainly lots of value around this weekend!!
The Knights look attractive but I am just scared that they will come out flat this week (like the Sharks did last week) after a big win away from home. The Storm can punish teams if they are not switched on, just like they did to the Raiders.
If I had to play any of those, I'd probably lean Dragons.
Backdoor cover for us in the Eels game - haven't watched the game yet but it appeared to be a very scrappy affair with lots of handling errors and missed tackles. I am not sure we had the right side in this match. My initial handicap of 18 was probably a better indication.
However, a win is still a win, we'll take them any way they come!
C'mon Titans.Comment -
Didn't have to wait long on the square up.
Titans had more possession, better field position and countless opportunities to at least cover, if not win outright.
The Cowboys were awful, with a completion rate of 59%, yet still managed to win.
Kevin Gordon - the most inconsistent player in the NRL - last week he couldn't do any wrong, catching bombs, scoring tries. Last night, he couldn't catch a bomb if his life depended on it.
Ropable that I passed on the Dragons - not only did they cover, but they should have won outright after the Sharks got some lucky calls from the officials and some lucky bounces of the ball. Unlucky Rohan.
Angelo, I hope you played the Dragons.Comment -
Yeah matey i played dragons with the 10, 1-12 and 4.55 money line. I backed dragons 1-12 at 2,88 at 12-0, and also backed Sharks 1-12 at 3.10 at the same time as well. All i will say is that Fifita out sprinted international backs to not score the try as Nightingale put his hand on the ball a split second before him..lol...would have been a nice collect but thats how it goes. Dragons will get demolished next week.Comment -
My predicted top 8 at this stage:
Roosters
Rabbitohs
Storm
Sea Eagles
Bulldogs
Sharks
Warriors
KnightsComment -
Leans so far:
Dragons -7.5
Knights +5.5Comment -
ROUND 23 PLAYS
Bet # 60 - Dragons - 7.5 @ $1.95 (Betting 195) - 1 UNIT
Bet # 61 - Knights +5.5 @ $1.95 (Betting 195) - 1 UNITComment -
Hey mate
I'm on skype now so lok forward to chatting with you guys.
My early leans this week are
Nth Qld +6 + ML
Manly ML @2.00
Warriors - 9.5
I'm going to have a good look at the teams and possibly have a go at the Panthers +7.5 but will wait and see if the line moves above 8Comment -
Thompson is a massive out for the Cows mate
i had this capped at 4.5 and was eyeing the cows as I expect a Sharkies let down
But, thompson has been the key to the cowboys form and they lose quite a bit with him out.
Also, their record in Sydney is terrible.
No play formine in this game.
I am liking the Warriors and Panthers though.
If you can get +8, take Penrith.
No lean on the Manly game, the line is about right.
Liking Titans at +24.5 too, with still a top 8 spot on the line.
Can't see them getting blown outComment -
ROUND 25 PLAYS
Bet # 62 - Warriors - 9.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet) - 2 UNIT
Bet # 63 - Panthers +8 @ $1.95 (Betting 195) - 1 UNIT
Bet # 64 - Titans +24.5 @ $1.93 (Bet 365) - 1 UNIT
Looking at hitting Rabbits -22 and Dragons ML too - will keep you posted.
GL all...Comment -
Good luck mate, got same two plays on Warriors and Titans for same amount of units. Hayne back for Parra and the game has been moved back to Parra stadium, you really like the Dragons??Comment -
Will Hayne play?
They are a better team at Parra Stadium but the Dragons have actually played well in a lot of their losses.
They committ way too many handling errors, missed tackles and give away a stack of penalties.
The Dragons are a little more stable and last week copped the raw end of a few dodgy ref calls that could have altered the outcome.Comment -
I think no doubt the Dragons is a much better side and in their losses to Broncos and Sharks recenetly they were well in the game and could have won both, the Sharks had a mirracle escape. But that performace against the Tigers last week was the worst of the season, yes they had a few calls go against them, but they were bad. After that Cronulla game I would have taken the Dragons against the Eels at even money, but sometimes young sides find the season too long.
I know I am not really adding value here but maybe the over could be a decent look, both sides arent playing much defence lately.Comment -
What is sandors connection to penrith? I just saw Ivan clearly press conference and he looked like he had guilty written all over his faceComment -
Didn't he play there before he went to the Raiders?
From memory he left halfway through the seasonComment -
Yeah the time frames suggest that it was when he was at Penrtih and recovering from the two shoulder injuries.
Cleary wasnt there at the time so I dont think he would be feeling guilty. My understanding is that Earl approached Danks and other Doctors outside the Penrith system when he was recovering from injury.
I think the trafficking part is where it became interesting ... is he selling it to other players ?
The bottom line is that trafficking I tihnk carries a penalty of close to a life ban, so for him to admit, he must be getting a huge sentence reduction if he dobs other players in.
Only one conclusion really ... he has names, they agreed to reduce the penalty if he tells all. I think alot of league players will be very very nervous.Comment -
He came from Penrith half way through last season, he and Blake are brothers they even have a tatoo of their Bro name , i cant remember what it is buts its like Sandblake or Blakearl , anyway Sandor is getting done for what he did at Penrith, he was let go because he was not only taking them he was dealing them Sandor is going to France anyway, About 6 or so weeks back a friend of mine saw him in Bangkok after he was returning from a quick trip to France to sign up etc.
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Like the titans play, best of luck this weekend.Comment -
Thanks for the input guys.
Start one Amgelo, the more input we can get, the better.
Hurry up and join the Skype group, you are missing out on some quality analysis.
As for Earl, he's mad if he snitches on anyone.
He'll always be looking over his shoulder for the rest of his life.Comment -
Earl's not going to snitch on any players, I believe he admitted to being a gym dealer which is nothing, there's a couple in every gym. The problem for him is he's a pro athlete.Comment -
Round 23 Total: 1-1 [-0.09 UNITS]
Round 24 Total: 0-2 [-2.00 UNITS]
Finally back to a winning week after some frustrating results.
Big play on the Warriors came through and kicking myself for not backing my judgement on the Titans by going for the extra unit.
When Bird was confirmed starting yesterday, I contemplated adding another unit but the injuries to the Titans' outside backs held me in check.
Bookies made a killing today.
Round 25 Total: 2-1 [+1.77 UNITS]
Season Total: 33-1-26 [+8.63 UNITS]Comment -
Good week mate, I missed hedging on the Panthers when they were up but I was happy with the Cowboys and manly winning straight , some interesting games this week.Comment -
OK everyone, last round of the regular season.
Lots of great matches and nearly all games will have a bearing on the make up of the top 8.
I really like some of the lines and the "need to win to make the 8" mentality.
ROUND 26 PLAYS
Bet # 65 - Bulldogs -4.5 @ $1.95 (Betting 195) - 2 UNITS
Bet # 66 - Warriors -8 @ $1.95 (Betting 195) - 2 UNITS
Bet # 67 - Titans +19.5 @ $1.90 (Sportingbet) - 2 UNITS
Bet # 68 - Roosters +5.5 @ $1.90 (TAB) - 1 UNIT
Bet # 69 - Knights -16.5 @ $1.95 (Betting 195) - 1 UNIT (May play it for another unit after the Titans and Warriors games)
Others I might play:
Cowboys -15
Sharks -2.5
Good luck to everyone.Comment -
TGM, I'm not too sure about that bet on the Roosters +5.5. I'm a chooks fan myself but our form the past two weeks coupled with the fact that this weeks lineup is one of our weakest all year (barring origin games.) We're missing Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, O'Donnell, Cordner and Kennedy from our best lineup whereas Souths seem to be at full strength. Our bench in particular lined up against Lima and the Burgess twins is a very scary thought for meComment -
You don't lose much with O'Donnell and Kennedy out - you have adequate replacements.
O'Donnell is a loose cannon and can do some pretty stupid things at inappropriate times.
RTS and Cordner are good players who have really stepped up this year, but again I think the players that come in can still do a decent job.
The Rabbits, although winning, have not been travelling that well and their poor start last week saw one of the worst teams in comp put 18 points on them in even time.
In games like this where there is so much at stake between two evenly matched teams, you have to take the points start. At worse, my line would be Rabbitohs -2.5 and you are getting +5.5 to 6 for the Roosters, which makes it an autobet.Comment -
Huge money pouring in on the Knights
The line is now out to 22.5Comment -
Brief comments:
Broncos v Bulldogs
Broncos season is over and the players will all be looking forward to Mad Monday.
The Bulldogs get Kasiano back, with Eastwood and Barba lurking in the background as possible last minute inclusions, although methinks that Barba has played his last game for the club with all the shit that has come out during the last few days.
Hasler will not want to go into week 1 of the finals coming off a loss to arguably the worst Broncos team in the club's history.
They also aren't resting any key players, so I expect a fully committed effort and anything up to 6 points is playable.
I wouldn't go more than that though.
Barring any last minute changes to the team, I expect the line to keep getting pounded as every "man of middle eastern appearance" will be dumping their Centrelink cheque on the Dogs.
Get in quick.
Rabbitohs v Roosters
The winner is crowned the minor premiers - which means jack shit in the scheme of things, apart from the JJ Giltinan Shield and cheque for $100K - big phucking deal.
However, there is still plenty of intense rivalry between these two teams, who have been the two most consistent clubs this season.
The Chooks are struggling with their form at present, but I expect a lift for this game as I think they've been eyeing this game for the last 2 weeks.
The Rabbitohs were average last week and copped 18 points from one of the worst teams this season in the Tigers.
Expect fireworks with SBW looking at getting some revenge against Sam Burgess who took the points decision in the opening round game.
The Chooks will be looking at returning the favour and this game is realistically a coin flip game.
Catching points here is a bonus, so taking the start and rolling with the Roosters.
Dragons v Warriors
Dragons have nothing to play for apart from their whining Red V members.
Conversely, the Warriors need to win to make the 8 - nothing else matters to them.
They can still miss out if other teams win, but at the time the game is played, their destiny is in their hands.
The Warriors have started rumbling along nicely and their passes and offloads are sticking.
The Dragons' defence has regressed and they have copped big scores from the 2 worst teams of the season over the last 2 weeks in the Tigers and the Eels.
No changes to their team and with Vatuvei hitting some form and Johnson running freely, I expect the onslaught to continue at WIN Stadium.
This could get ugly for the Dragons.
Storm v Titans
The Storm will be looking at getting back on track after an uncharacteristic performance against Manly last week.
They should improve markedly from last week but realistically have nothing to play for as they are guaranteed to finish top 4 regardless of what happens elsewhere.
The Titans are playing their 5th GF match in a row and last week showed they have no fear of the top teams, toppling the Roosters as $12 underdogs.
They have some injury concerns, but they are not a 3 converted try plus worse team than the Storm on current form.
Sezer is a great goal-kicker and with Smith off-target lately, I fully expect the Titans to stick it to the Storm.
The equation for the Titans is the same as the Warriors - win and they are in the 8 (pending other results).
Lose and it is game over.
Life or death game = Solid performance and possible ML win and highly probable ATS cover.
Knights v Eels
Eels played their GF on Monday and will turn to shit again in this game.
Away from home they have been horrible, getting belted from pillar to post.
The Knights are at home and it is farewell to one of their favourite sons, Danny Buderus.
Jeremy Smith is back and the Eels will be lucky to score 10 points.
I expect a sell-out crowd up in Newie, coupled with a huge effort from the Knights to farewell Buderus.
Don't play it for more than -24 though, as depending on other results, the Knights may already have made the 8 and could take the foot off the gas late in the game, allowing the Eels a backdoor cover.
If this is a concern, look at playing the HT line (no more than -12)Comment
(god knows how that would happen - tied game then f/g and then un-converted try maybe)?
