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NBL Regular Season 2012 5-3 +2.50
Round 3
Great looking round ahead and hopefully the model filling up with more data is getting more accurate. 2x biggest plays of the round happening on Friday night with some amazing looking totals.
Play #1
Breakers vs Crocodiles UNDER 160.5 2x 1.95
The total on this game looks extremely high on the model - Crocs averaging only 65ppg and Breakers 78ppg. It would need to be lights out basketball from both ends of the court for the OVER to hit. Breakers are still a long way off being the team they were last year yet we're seeing a total that reflects the opposite. Have this total at 154 which makes this a 2x play on the UNDER 160.5. GL
Play #2
Kings vs Taipans OVER 152.5 2x 1.95
Taipans will be fired up for a big game and the Kings will be on a high after the big win last week. Sydney are currently the highest scoring team with an avg of 84ppg - well & truly outperforming expectations. However the Kings defense is shocking and we should see some easy points from the luckless Taipans (who need a few easy buckets to say the least). Books have this as a brick-fest but we should be surprised and we're looking at a total around 160 - which makes this another 2x for the night. Rolling with 2x OVER 152.5 at 1.95.
GL
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OT gonna kill this one after being up 11 with 3 mins to go?Comment -
What total do you have for tigers v wildcats. Anstey has mentioned several times the need to slow it down especially after half time. I plan on going big on the under. Already on for 2 unitsComment -
Great stuff on tonight's game pity I logged on to lateComment -
Crazy finish to the kings game to cover the over. Nice work TG sweep
it up.
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cheers guys.. a good night on the books!
Updated: NBL Regular Season 2012 7-3 +6.30
Round 3 2-0
Looking at tomorrow's plays now.. hopefully some opportunities to nail the booksComment -
great stuff mate. Have not backed NBL with any confidence last 2-3 seasons. its looking like you all over it early.
appreciate your work manComment -
NBL Regular Season 2012 7-3 +6.30
Round 3 2-0
Play #3
36ers -4.5 vs Taipans 1x 1.90
Favour the UNDER on this play but laying off it.. strange things happen in B2B matches with totals and 156.5 is a sharp number from the books. 36ers -4.5 is the stronger play on this match up given the Taipans are coming off a game last night. Have the figure at around -8 with fatigue considered so we're getting 3.5 points of value which is good enough for a play off a B2B.
Rolling with 36ers -4.5 at 1x 1.90. GL
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updated: NBL Regular Season 2012 7-4 +5.30
Unfortunate to miss the 36ers win by just 1 point last night, especially after they led by 6pts or more for most of the 4th quarter. Back at it today with some solid plays.
Round 3 2-1
Play #4
Tigers vs Wildcats UNDER 159.5 2x 1.95
We're getting a large total on this match for two teams that had a very low scoring total last time they met (137pts). Avg points for the Tigers is only 69pts and I doubt we see them hit anything higher then 70 against the Wildcats. Meaning Perth would need almost 90pts for this to hit, while it's not impossible we should be confident it's highly unlikely. Have this game at 152 for the total, which makes it a 2x play from mine. Some books already pushing a lower total of 157.5 which would be a 1x.
GL
Play #5
Hawks vs Crocodiles UNDER 154.5 1x 1.95
Missed the larger total of 158.5 which appeared on the books last night which would have been a 2x play. Still getting some value at 154.5 with the Crocs coming off a game on Friday - fatigue shouldn't be a big factor but might push the total down slightly (positive). Have the total at 147 which makes this a 1x play on the UNDER at 1x 1.95 GL
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up untill the final quarter your 2 unit play was looking shaky, thanks tho!Comment -
That first quarter was incredibly frustrating, felt like every three was dropping. Glad they stopped in the 2nd half, cash the under!Comment -
Great picks thatguy!Comment -
updated: NBL Regular Season 2012 9-4 +8.15
Round 3 4-1
Clean sweep for the day with both UNDERS cashing.
NBL model rolling along quite nicely now... back next week with more winners (hopefully).Comment -
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NBL Regular Season 2012 9-4 +8.15
Round 4
Play #1
Tigers vs Breakers UNDER 153.5 1x 1.95
Tigers offense has been struggling big time averaging only 69pts per game while the Breakers have consistently been hitting 72/73 per game this season. NZ should control this match and we shouldn't see them exceed 76pts - doubt Tigers will keep up in the 4th quarter and Breakers should pull away. Have the total at 148 which makes it a 1x play on the UNDER 153.5 at 1.95. GL
Play #2
Crocodiles vs Kings OVER 154.5 1x 1.95
Kings should keep the pace up in this game and rack up plenty of points, they're also the leading team for letting in points - avg against of a whopping 89ppg. While the Crocs have struggled at the paint they should do better tonight and hit somewhere in the 70's.. their last 2 games have been against the best 2 defensive sides in the NBL. Have this total at 159 and rolling with a 1x play on the OVER 154.5. GL
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dramatic ending to that Townsville game.Comment -
Took under 170 ingame.. thought i was home and dry, only to find this is one of those crappy leagues were coaches refuse to accept defeat despite down 15 with 2mins to go grr last bet ill make on NBL thats for sure.Comment -
updated: NBL Regular Season 2012 11-4 +10.05
Round 4 2-0
Great night to nail the books.. looking at a 2unit play for a game coming up this round.
Hopefully post some more winners tomorrow.Comment -
NBL Regular Season 2012 11-4 +10.05
Round 4 2-0
Hopefully we can end the round with a clean sweep.. some great looking totals this afternoon
Play #3
36ers vs Hawks UNDER 156.5 1x 1.95
Hawks have a team total avg of just 69pts.. this after playing the lower level NBL teams in the opening rounds. Expect Adelaide will be way too strong for the Hawks and dominate this match. 36ers should hit a total 82pts which is the upper end of their avg ppg. Looking at a total of 151 on the model which is enough for a 1x play on the UNDER at 1.95. GL
Play #4
Taipans vs Kings OVER 154.5 1.5 x 1.95
Books have given us a lower total with this game because the Kings are playing BTB (Friday to Sunday). However, it shouldn't affect the offense on both sides too much as the Kings defensive short falls will be what adds to the total - we saw this on Friday night against the Crocs where they were playing end to end basketball with very loose defense. If that continues tonight the OVER easily cashes. Kings avg 83ppg while the Taipans hit a lower 74ppg - so without poor offense from the Kings this game goes OVER anyway. The only catch is how much the BTB affects the Kings scoring ability. Have this game at a massive 163pts but cautious of a 2x play on a side that is BTB, still the total is a large one and rolling with a 1.5x play on the OVER 154.5 at 1.95. GL
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updated: NBL Regular Season 2012 12-5 +9.50
Round 4 3-1
This close to a sweep for the round
Damn. Unbelievable game on the BTB with Kings defeating the Taipans in the last 20secs and a completely uncharacteristic 4qtrs for both sides.Comment -
Have the books overreacted to the tigers scoring problems. O/u is at 148 .5 for Sunday gameComment -
Was thinking the same thing.. will have a closer look tonight and lock in some plays.
Book I've been using moves 2-3pts from Thursday night to Friday. Gotta love nailing some loose Aussie lines.
Hopefully more people jump off NBL now the NBA has started = more opportunities.Comment -
You are doing well on Nbl though. Sports bet have not listed totals yet. Tab still at 148.5.
Tigers will be paranoid about turnovers so may slow it down further thoughComment -
NBL Regular Season 2012 12-5 +9.50
Round 5
Play #1
Breakers vs Kings OVER 156.5 1x 1.95
Kings were lucky to jag a win last week against the Crocs and a pts total of 71 is way below the normal figures they put up. Expect this week to be much improved and the Kings should set the tone for a fast paced game. Last time these sides played the total raced away to a massive 193 and while it should be marginally lower the OVER looks great.
Kings play all out basketball with minimal defence - they have the worst defence in the NBL by far, letting in an average of 86ppg but yet are still winning games by outscoring sides. Breakers will enoy this style of play and should exceed their avg of 78pts per game.
Have the total at 162 this game and rolling with 1x OVER 156.5 at 1.95. GL
Play #2
Crocs vs Taipans OVER 147.5 0.5x 1.95
This number is very very sharp by the books and it should be a close battle. However these sides always seem to exceed their points average when they line up for a local derby. Last time they met the total hit 156 in the pre-season and it won't take much for this to roll over again. Have the total at 149 on the model but given the circumstances of this match it should just spill a little higher. We haven't seen a total below 147 between these sides for a very long time. Hitting this at a 0.5 play OVER 147.5 at 1.95 GL
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added:
Play #1 (additional units)
Breakers vs Kings OVER 156.5 2x 1.95
Teams confirmed with no late withdrawals. Adding an extra unit on this play for a total of 2x UNITS.
Over is the play and can't see this hitting the UNDER in a non-BTB situation. GL
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2 mins in and 10 shots at goal MISSED..
You just can't make this sh!t up!Comment -
Hey mate, Great to see your work here. Ill nmbe mwith you all season long and look forward to your selections etc. Can I ask what time of the Day AEST you will be posting approx? BOL to you.Comment -
updated: NBL Regular Season 2012 13-6 +8.00
Round 5 1-1
Both teams proving why the NBL can be a brickfest at times with the first 2mins both sides hitting 0 from 10. The game should have gone OVER and based on team % it would have.
At least the 2nd play tonight hit.. providing some relief from a bad night. As expected Taipans / Crocs game was highly competitive and headed into OT after it'd already cashed.
More plays tomorrow night for Sunday. GLComment -
Hey mate.. cheers.
Take NBL plays lightly - definitely not using same unit sizes as NRL plays earlier in the year. So many motivational and variance factors come into play.. in saying that, the weak Aussie lines can be exploited at times.
Normally post plays late Thursday night for Friday games and late Sat / early Sun for Sunday afternoon games. GL
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Cheers TG, do u have a preferred book for nbl/nba thats overall better value, ive got a/c's with several but really only use two thru their ok mob appts being c/bet n sportsbet..Comment -
NBL Regular Season 2012 13-6 +8.00
Round 5 1-1
Play #3
Kings vs 36ers OVER 157.5 1x 1.95
Kings have been playing well below average and in normal circumstances we get a total of 162 or so for this game. However the last 3 weeks the Kings have averaged only 70ppg. Think the drought ends today against a 36ers side who have been focused on improving offense all week. Last time these sides met the total was a massive 180pts. So we just need both sides 'on game' for this to go OVER. Have the total at 163 on the model (despite some ordinary totals from the Kings over the past few weeks).
Locking in 1x OVER 157.5 at 1x 1.95. GL
Play #4
Tigers vs Crocodiles UNDER 149.5 1x 1.95
Tigers offensive woes should continue today as they focus on defending a fast paced Crocs lineup. Even if we get a much better performance from the Tigers the UNDER still looks solid. Last time these sides met we got a total of 140 and based on the model it hits 142 today. Books have moved this game down slightly from opening.. but if you can pick it up for above 149.5 you're in luck.
Locking in 1x UNDER 149.5 at 1.95. GL
Play #5
Hawks vs Wildcats UNDER 152.5 2x 1.95
We should see a tight and controlled game from both sides. Wildcats coming off the break will be keen to keep the lid on this one from the start. Despite a strong season from both sides their offensive avgs have been well down. Books have this as an end-to-end game of basketball, but I'm not sure it ends up like that. Model has this game hitting only 143pts which is well below the 152.5 on the books.
Rolling with the UNDER 152.5 at 2x for this one. GL
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