Derby pp's

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  • Justin_sane
    SBR High Roller
    • 03-07-12
    • 160

    #1
    Derby pp's
    Enjoy!

  • CWD
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 01-22-12
    • 7665

    #2
    i'll save you the reading

    BODE is going to ROMP
    Comment
    • Arletta
      SBR Sharp
      • 02-03-12
      • 440

      #3
      Originally posted by CWD
      i'll save you the reading

      BODE is going to ROMP
      4 really good races... seems like he might start tailing off some now. It would be nice though to have him break the jinx.
      Comment
      • Easy-Rider 66
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 02-14-12
        • 36108

        #4
        Originally posted by CWD
        i'll save you the reading

        BODE is going to ROMP
        There is a good chance Bodemeister will bounce off his Arkansas Derby score just 3 weeks ago. Looking elsewhere.
        Comment
        • Justin_sane
          SBR High Roller
          • 03-07-12
          • 160

          #5
          I dunno. I wouldn't say bounce. He won't get the perfect trip he got last race in a 20 horse field.

          Easy toss out.
          Comment
          • Easy-Rider 66
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 02-14-12
            • 36108

            #6
            Originally posted by Justin_sane
            I dunno. I wouldn't say bounce. He won't get the perfect trip he got last race in a 20 horse field.

            Easy toss out.
            Are you saying he's an easy toss out because of all the early speed in here from the likes of Trinniberg, Hansen, Take Charge Indy, etc. Last horse to wire the field in the derby was War Emblem 10 years ago. I see a closer coming to the wire to pick up the pieces of what should be a fast pace. Running a high top like Bode did in the Arkansas Derby and coming back to a 1 1/4 on 3 weeks rest makes him a bounce candidate imo.
            Comment
            • Louisvillekid1
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 10-17-07
              • 52143

              #7
              OP
              Comment
              • CWD
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 01-22-12
                • 7665

                #8
                Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66
                There is a good chance Bodemeister will bounce off his Arkansas Derby score just 3 weeks ago. Looking elsewhere.
                What makes you think he is due to bounce? The horse ran back to back 101 Beyers at Santa Anita and shipped across the country to run in a Grade 1 on a foreign track surface. To me that seems like a good spot for a bounce. So.... Bodemeister wins by 9.5 lengths and runs a 108 Beyer. A horse that has improved in every single start, has been working like he's possessed, and is trained by one of the best of all time. What about that says bounce?
                Comment
                • Easy-Rider 66
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 02-14-12
                  • 36108

                  #9
                  Originally posted by CWD
                  What makes you think he is due to bounce? The horse ran back to back 101 Beyers at Santa Anita and shipped across the country to run in a Grade 1 on a foreign track surface. To me that seems like a good spot for a bounce. So.... Bodemeister wins by 9.5 lengths and runs a 108 Beyer. A horse that has improved in every single start, has been working like he's possessed, and is trained by one of the best of all time. What about that says bounce?
                  Getting an easy lead and running a 1 1/8 like he did in the Arkansas derby is totally different from what he will face in the 20 horse 1 1/4 derby field. Secondly, when a horse runs a new top like Bode did and has only 3 weeks to recover he is a bounce candidate. Remember a horse named Bellamy Road. He destroyed the field in the Wood at Aqueduct and got around 115 beyer. He had nothing left in the tank 4 weeks later. I just think this Derby sets up nicely for a closer because of all the early speed in here. Maybe Bode will win, but would not take a chance on him at low odds. I may use him as a cover in some exactas, but not betting him to win.
                  Comment
                  • Justin_sane
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 03-07-12
                    • 160

                    #10
                    Originally posted by CWD
                    What makes you think he is due to bounce? The horse ran back to back 101 Beyers at Santa Anita and shipped across the country to run in a Grade 1 on a foreign track surface. To me that seems like a good spot for a bounce. So.... Bodemeister wins by 9.5 lengths and runs a 108 Beyer. A horse that has improved in every single start, has been working like he's possessed, and is trained by one of the best of all time. What about that says bounce?
                    He should of got a 114+ so a bounce does seem in order. Plus, 20 horse field, anything can happen.
                    Comment
                    • CWD
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 01-22-12
                      • 7665

                      #11
                      sometimes horses bounce sometimes they don't fire you never know when but he had plenty left so i'm betting he is going to fire big. union rags scares me and a few others i think have a good shot i'm not arguing against anyones pick or any horse they all have good cases

                      and traffic can kill any horse in the derby no matter how good but thats no reason not to bet the top horses. i guess if you want to throw some shit against the wall and see if it sticks w/ the longshots by all means go ahead IMO we might be looking at a super horse possibe TC winner
                      Comment
                      • Justin_sane
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 03-07-12
                        • 160

                        #12
                        Originally posted by CWD
                        sometimes horses bounce sometimes they don't fire you never know when but he had plenty left so i'm betting he is going to fire big. union rags scares me and a few others i think have a good shot i'm not arguing against anyones pick or any horse they all have good cases

                        and traffic can kill any horse in the derby no matter how good but thats no reason not to bet the top horses. i guess if you want to throw some shit against the wall and see if it sticks w/ the longshots by all means go ahead IMO we might be looking at a super horse possibe TC winner
                        Horse wagering isn't about betting the top horses, it's about finding value. Any given day any horse can win.

                        Throwing shit on the wall would of worked great the past few years.
                        Comment
                        • Easy-Rider 66
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 02-14-12
                          • 36108

                          #13
                          Originally posted by CWD
                          sometimes horses bounce sometimes they don't fire you never know when but he had plenty left so i'm betting he is going to fire big. union rags scares me and a few others i think have a good shot i'm not arguing against anyones pick or any horse they all have good cases

                          and traffic can kill any horse in the derby no matter how good but thats no reason not to bet the top horses. i guess if you want to throw some shit against the wall and see if it sticks w/ the longshots by all means go ahead IMO we might be looking at a super horse possibe TC winner
                          Bodemeister just may be a super horse. We shall soon find out if he can put together back to back great performances. Another thing he will have to overcome is being unraced as a 2 year old. Either none or very few derby winners were unraced at 2.
                          Comment
                          • Arletta
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 02-03-12
                            • 440

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Easy-Rider 66
                            Bodemeister just may be a super horse. We shall soon find out if he can put together back to back great performances. Another thing he will have to overcome is being unraced as a 2 year old. Either none or very few derby winners were unraced at 2.
                            "This is going to be the most publicized trend heading into this race — no horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without having raced at least once as a two year old. There have been 56 runners since 1944 that have challenged history in this way. Just twice — in 1948 and 1994 — have they come as close as second place."

                            Online & Vegas sports betting odds & lines, betting news & picks for 2025. Covers the most trusted source of sports betting information since 1995.
                            Comment
                            • Poppa Catfish
                              SBR MVP
                              • 09-22-10
                              • 3352

                              #15
                              Seems more like a fun fact than a tool. Like 20% of the winning owners have blue eyes. If only Bode had been mindful of the curse and started racing a couple of weeks earlier, lol. Forsooth
                              Comment
                              • LT Profits
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 10-27-06
                                • 90963

                                #16
                                The best VALUE based on the morning line looks like Creative Cause at 12/1, but I doubt he'll go off at that price. I think the race sets up nicely for Union Rags and I want no part of Bodemeister on top as the chalk, although I'll probably use him underneath.
                                Comment
                                • LT Profits
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 10-27-06
                                  • 90963

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Poppa Catfish
                                  Seems more like a fun fact than a tool.
                                  Well it DOES point to his lack of seasoning though, which is why I wouldn't use him on top with more battle tested speed horses in the race.
                                  Comment
                                  • Poppa Catfish
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 09-22-10
                                    • 3352

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by LT Profits
                                    Well it DOES point to his lack of seasoning though, which is why I wouldn't use him on top with more battle tested speed horses in the race.
                                    He has one less start than Gemologist, who had started some 3.5 months ahead of him and then Gem took close to 3 month break in between, there can't be too much of a difference between the two in terms of seasoning.

                                    Horses with big campaigns like Dullahan, Creative Cause, surely have big experience edges over Bode, but I don't hear much about Gemologist being inexperienced.
                                    Comment
                                    • LT Profits
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 10-27-06
                                      • 90963

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Poppa Catfish
                                      He has one less start than Gemologist, who had started some 3.5 months ahead of him and then Gem took close to 3 month break in between, there can't be too much of a difference between the two in terms of seasoning.

                                      Horses with big campaigns like Dullahan, Creative Cause, surely have big experience edges over Bode, but I don't hear much about Gemologist being inexperienced.
                                      Funny you should mention Gemologist as he is the other horse I am considering throwing underneath. Anyhow, he is not the horse Bode has to worry about as far as the pace goes, the primary player on that list would be Hansen, though I think there are a few others that could be in the mix. Like Harvey Pack used to say, "Never ask a horse to do something he has never done before at a short price." Truer woydz was never spoken.
                                      Comment
                                      • LT Profits
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 10-27-06
                                        • 90963

                                        #20
                                        Dosage Indexes: Creative Cause 1.43, Union Rags 2.14, Gemologist 2.73, Bodemeister 3.00. 3.00 is pretty good but it is still the worst among my top 4 choices as of now.
                                        Comment
                                        • Poppa Catfish
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 09-22-10
                                          • 3352

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by LT Profits
                                          Funny you should mention Gemologist as he is the other horse I am considering throwing underneath. Anyhow, he is not the horse Bode has to worry about as far as the pace goes, the primary player on that list would be Hansen, though I think there are a few others that could be in the mix. Like Harvey Pack used to say, "Never ask a horse to do something he has never done before at a short price." Truer woydz was never spoken.
                                          Tis all relative though, my friend. I think we can agree that Bode will be somewhere in the 7/2 to 5-1 range, and that sure isn't a short price for this horse relative to any of his past starts and probably nowhere near short of his future ones. At even money, I too would never bet on something that is trying something new out for the first time. At 5-1 I do it, and I do it rather often.

                                          I don't know what to do with Gemologist, I like his post, and he has done alright at CD (against allowance types though so nothing worth getting over excited about). Kind of missing that wow factor from him, and he will be a shorter price too.
                                          Comment
                                          • LT Profits
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 10-27-06
                                            • 90963

                                            #22
                                            Yeah but regardless, I don't think Bode can win without getting a clear lead which he won't and he seems suspect at 1 1/4. As for Gemologist, I consider him the "speed behind the speed", he should stalk and suck up when the leaders crumble while my top 2 zoom on by. (I hope LOL).
                                            Comment
                                            • Poppa Catfish
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 09-22-10
                                              • 3352

                                              #23
                                              That right there is a reason I can support, even though I disagree and think he can easily sit off the pressure. That is a much more tangible reason than some weird 2 year old voodoo curse, where if he had only started a few days earlier he would have been immune.

                                              I consider Bode the speed behind the speed, waiting to draw off when they collapse.

                                              Cause is so consistent and so talented, I would be surprised if he didn't make the superfecta at the very least. Little doubt that he can get the distance. Rags seems like his east coast twin, so I can also see him right there as well.
                                              Comment
                                              • no1here
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 03-23-09
                                                • 5914

                                                #24
                                                Thanks for the link, lots of shots here
                                                Comment
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