-
-
i'll save you the reading
BODE is going to ROMPComment -
I dunno. I wouldn't say bounce. He won't get the perfect trip he got last race in a 20 horse field.
Easy toss out.Comment -
Are you saying he's an easy toss out because of all the early speed in here from the likes of Trinniberg, Hansen, Take Charge Indy, etc. Last horse to wire the field in the derby was War Emblem 10 years ago. I see a closer coming to the wire to pick up the pieces of what should be a fast pace. Running a high top like Bode did in the Arkansas Derby and coming back to a 1 1/4 on 3 weeks rest makes him a bounce candidate imo.Comment -
OP
Comment -
What makes you think he is due to bounce? The horse ran back to back 101 Beyers at Santa Anita and shipped across the country to run in a Grade 1 on a foreign track surface. To me that seems like a good spot for a bounce. So.... Bodemeister wins by 9.5 lengths and runs a 108 Beyer. A horse that has improved in every single start, has been working like he's possessed, and is trained by one of the best of all time. What about that says bounce?Comment -
Getting an easy lead and running a 1 1/8 like he did in the Arkansas derby is totally different from what he will face in the 20 horse 1 1/4 derby field. Secondly, when a horse runs a new top like Bode did and has only 3 weeks to recover he is a bounce candidate. Remember a horse named Bellamy Road. He destroyed the field in the Wood at Aqueduct and got around 115 beyer. He had nothing left in the tank 4 weeks later. I just think this Derby sets up nicely for a closer because of all the early speed in here. Maybe Bode will win, but would not take a chance on him at low odds. I may use him as a cover in some exactas, but not betting him to win.Comment -
sometimes horses bounce sometimes they don't fire you never know when but he had plenty left so i'm betting he is going to fire big. union rags scares me and a few others i think have a good shot i'm not arguing against anyones pick or any horse they all have good cases
and traffic can kill any horse in the derby no matter how good but thats no reason not to bet the top horses. i guess if you want to throw some shit against the wall and see if it sticks w/ the longshots by all means go ahead IMO we might be looking at a super horse possibe TC winnerComment -
"This is going to be the most publicized trend heading into this race — no horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without having raced at least once as a two year old. There have been 56 runners since 1944 that have challenged history in this way. Just twice — in 1948 and 1994 — have they come as close as second place."
Comment -
Seems more like a fun fact than a tool. Like 20% of the winning owners have blue eyes. If only Bode had been mindful of the curse and started racing a couple of weeks earlier, lol. ForsoothComment -
The best VALUE based on the morning line looks like Creative Cause at 12/1, but I doubt he'll go off at that price. I think the race sets up nicely for Union Rags and I want no part of Bodemeister on top as the chalk, although I'll probably use him underneath.Comment -
He has one less start than Gemologist, who had started some 3.5 months ahead of him and then Gem took close to 3 month break in between, there can't be too much of a difference between the two in terms of seasoning.
Horses with big campaigns like Dullahan, Creative Cause, surely have big experience edges over Bode, but I don't hear much about Gemologist being inexperienced.Comment -
Funny you should mention Gemologist as he is the other horse I am considering throwing underneath. Anyhow, he is not the horse Bode has to worry about as far as the pace goes, the primary player on that list would be Hansen, though I think there are a few others that could be in the mix. Like Harvey Pack used to say, "Never ask a horse to do something he has never done before at a short price." Truer woydz was never spoken.
Comment -
Dosage Indexes: Creative Cause 1.43, Union Rags 2.14, Gemologist 2.73, Bodemeister 3.00. 3.00 is pretty good but it is still the worst among my top 4 choices as of now.Comment -
Tis all relative though, my friend. I think we can agree that Bode will be somewhere in the 7/2 to 5-1 range, and that sure isn't a short price for this horse relative to any of his past starts and probably nowhere near short of his future ones. At even money, I too would never bet on something that is trying something new out for the first time. At 5-1 I do it, and I do it rather often.Funny you should mention Gemologist as he is the other horse I am considering throwing underneath. Anyhow, he is not the horse Bode has to worry about as far as the pace goes, the primary player on that list would be Hansen, though I think there are a few others that could be in the mix. Like Harvey Pack used to say, "Never ask a horse to do something he has never done before at a short price." Truer woydz was never spoken.
I don't know what to do with Gemologist, I like his post, and he has done alright at CD (against allowance types though so nothing worth getting over excited about). Kind of missing that wow factor from him, and he will be a shorter price too.Comment -
Yeah but regardless, I don't think Bode can win without getting a clear lead which he won't and he seems suspect at 1 1/4. As for Gemologist, I consider him the "speed behind the speed", he should stalk and suck up when the leaders crumble while my top 2 zoom on by. (I hope LOL).Comment -
That right there is a reason I can support, even though I disagree and think he can easily sit off the pressure. That is a much more tangible reason than some weird 2 year old voodoo curse, where if he had only started a few days earlier he would have been immune.
I consider Bode the speed behind the speed, waiting to draw off when they collapse.
Cause is so consistent and so talented, I would be surprised if he didn't make the superfecta at the very least. Little doubt that he can get the distance. Rags seems like his east coast twin, so I can also see him right there as well.Comment -
Thanks for the link, lots of shots hereComment
