Post best bet or follow ups of the day

[harthebar]

Just a reminder:Wake Up Smiling is scheduled to run on 10/12/2016 in Race 3 at Finger Lakes
Lago Lindo is scheduled to run on 10/12/2016 in Race 1 at Gulfstream Park

Here Comes R J is scheduled to run on 10/12/2016 in Race 4 at Mountaineer


Just a reminder:Win Four Adalyn is scheduled to run on 10/12/2016 in Race 2 at Monticello

[harthebar]

Tony did it work

[harthebar]

Joywave is scheduled to run on 10/13/2016 in Race 2 at Belmont.

Courtly Kitty is scheduled to run on 10/13/2016 in Race 9 at Belmont.

Double Dose on 10/13/2016 in Race 6 at Belmont

Looking At U Kid on 10/13/2016 in Race 1 at Belmon

Heavenly Strut scheduled to run on 10/13/2016 in Race 9 at Belmont.

:Love Blues is scheduled to run on 10/13/2016 in Race 5 at Finger Lakes

[harthebar]

Belmont. 2nd. Joywave and motown sound

[harthebar]

Joywave is scheduled to run on 10/13/2016 in Race 2 at Belmont.

Courtly Kitty is scheduled to run on 10/13/2016 in Race 9 at Belmont.

Double Dose on 10/13/2016 in Race 6 at Belmont

Looking At U Kid on 10/13/2016 in Race 1 at Belmon

Heavenly Strut scheduled to run on 10/13/2016 in Race 9 at Belmont.

:Love Blues is scheduled to run on 10/13/2016 in Race 5 at Finger Lakes

Love Blues winner. 13.00
Double Dose. Scr.
Courtly Kitty. Winner. Chalk

[harthebar]

Belmont. 2nd. Joywave and motown sound

Motown sound winner. Joy wave 3rd

[harthebar]

:Lord Of Love is scheduled to run on 10/14/2016 in Race 2 at Belmont

Da Wildcat Girl is scheduled to run on 10/14/2016 in Race 3 at Belmont
Blue Strike is scheduled to run on 10/14/2016 in Race 1 at Yonkers

r:Chicago Angel is scheduled to run on 10/14/2016 in Race 8 at Santa Anita

r:Bareeqa is scheduled to run on 10/14/2016 in Race 6 at Belmont

Brainchild scheduled to run on 10/14/2016 in Race 5 at Laurel Park

Clutch Cargo scheduled to run on 10/14/2016 in Race 9 at Belmont

Editore (Brz) on 10/14/2016 in Race 7 at Santa Anita

Millies Party Boy on 10/14/2016 in Race 9 at Belmont

:Royal Son is scheduled to run on 10/14/2016 in Race 8 at Woodbine

[harthebar]

:Lord Of Love is scheduled to run on 10/14/2016 in Race 2 at Belmont

Da Wildcat Girl is scheduled to run on 10/14/2016 in Race 3 at Belmont
Blue Strike is scheduled to run on 10/14/2016 in Race 1 at Yonkers

r:Chicago Angel is scheduled to run on 10/14/2016 in Race 8 at Santa Anita

r:Bareeqa is scheduled to run on 10/14/2016 in Race 6 at Belmont

Brainchild scheduled to run on 10/14/2016 in Race 5 at Laurel Park

Clutch Cargo scheduled to run on 10/14/2016 in Race 9 at Belmont

Editore (Brz) on 10/14/2016 in Race 7 at Santa Anita

Millies Party Boy on 10/14/2016 in Race 9 at Belmont

:Royal Son is scheduled to run on 10/14/2016 in Race 8 at Woodbine

Lord of love. 2nd 7 to 1
Da Wildcat Girl 2nd 5 to 1
Bareeqa 2nd 5 to 1
Royal Son winner
Belmont race 9.
Clutch Cargo winner
Millies Party Boy 3rd. 70 to 1

[harthebar]

Follow next out.
Cats halo. 7th horse race 4. Today finished third watch replay. Who ever listens.
Mike. Where you at. Taking a break till B.C. WEEK RIGHT

[doitnow]

Great call on clutch cargo and millies, just missed w/p

[JBEX]

very nice call in that belmont race har !! considering the longie came in 3rd surrounded by the two other favorites in 2nd and 4th this could have been a bonanza with simple wagering strategies..perfectly reasonable to key the winner (your pick) with the longie in 2nd and 3rd along with the other two favorites in 2nd and 3rd...cost $8
and triple paid $544 which is about a 50% overlay factoring the odds(steve crist's drf formula in his book exotic betting)..would cost another $12 to do the same thing in supers and the super paid $3800..that's an over 500% overlay using his formula as that should only be about a $600 super..realize this is all after the fact but just wanted to point out how you can get huge overlay payoffs
when these bombs come in underneath

[harthebar]

thanks guys....thought millie was going to loop them for a second...

[harthebar]

very nice call in that belmont race har !! considering the longie came in 3rd surrounded by the two other favorites in 2nd and 4th this could have been a bonanza with simple wagering strategies..perfectly reasonable to key the winner (your pick) with the longie in 2nd and 3rd along with the other two favorites in 2nd and 3rd...cost $8
and triple paid $544 which is about a 50% overlay factoring the odds(steve crist's drf formula in his book exotic betting)..would cost another $12 to do the same thing in supers and the super paid $3800..that's an over 500% overlay using his formula as that should only be about a $600 super..realize this is all after the fact but just wanted to point out how you can get huge overlay payoffs
when these bombs come in underneath

thanks jbex....one of my weak points..money strategies........that was my play 1 -6 all 1 all 6 6 all 1 6 1 all all with 1 6 1 6 also played the 6 across.........a friend of mine once said...who needs exotics when the horse is over 10 to 1 ill read that book

[TonyP]

nice pick Har

[harthebar]

He Could is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 1 at Santa Anita
Invisible Crown is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 5 at Monmouth Park
Tru Greek and North Star Boy are scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 4 at Laurel Park.
:Baduke is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 2 at Belmont
Risky Sour is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 4 at Belmont.
Peculiar Sensation is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 4 at Belmont.
Priest N The Rabbi is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 9 at Belmon
Welcoming is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 8 at Belmont
Stonecoldfox Paz The Wine The Eagle Is Gone is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 7 at Belmont


Shore To Party finger lakes 4th
Every Way Out freehold race 3
Boston Red Rocks freehold race 7


Mel Mara yonkers race 10

[harthebar]

nice pick Har

thanks tony...like anything at santa anita

[harthebar]

nice pick Har

i notice you have two btp winners....if you pick better than him that week ..you get points ???is that the deal any week

[TonyP]

i notice you have two btp winners....if you pick better than him that week ..you get points ???is that the deal any week

Yes if you beat him and have positive $$ you win points

[JBEX]

thanks jbex....one of my weak points..money strategies........that was my play 1 -6 all 1 all 6 6 all 1 6 1 all all with 1 6 1 6 also played the 6 across.........a friend of mine once said...who needs exotics when the horse is over 10 to 1 ill read that book

yes only thing I disagree with is spreading out too much
with all in 2nd and 3rd because you're already keying a 70-1..Realize you can get burnt with that strategy but I'd rather have it multiple times with the other logicals surrounding it. .I'd say that even if I would have lost this one doing it..bottomline and I've read this in other books and believe it true, the public likes to bet the top 4 or 5 low odds horses in tris and supers because they have to hit now ..these obvious combos are overplayed so when a bomb gets in underneath the payoffs are mostly overlays relative to the odds..these types of horses are more likely to land 2nd-4th anyway so if you put your ego aside and try to cash them in those spots in tris and supers you'll do better than playing them on top long haul.. I'll put his formula in here today or tomorrow. .simple math and makes sense to me...his book definetly a good read. .more bet structuring than money management

[JBEX]

yes only thing I disagree with is spreading out too much
with all in 2nd and 3rd because you're already keying a 70-1..Realize you can get burnt with that strategy but I'd rather have it multiple times with the other logicals surrounding it. .I'd say that even if I would have lost this one doing it..bottomline and I've read this in other books and believe it true, the public likes to bet the top 4 or 5 low odds horses in tris and supers because they have to hit now ..these obvious combos are overplayed so when a bomb gets in underneath the payoffs are mostly overlays relative to the odds..these types of horses are more likely to land 2nd-4th anyway so if you put your ego aside and try to cash them in those spots in tris and supers you'll do better than playing them on top long haul.. I'll put his formula in here today or tomorrow. .simple math and makes sense to me...his book definetly a good read. .more bet structuring than money management

meaning horseplayers in general..not you

[harthebar]

He Could is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 1 at Santa Anita
Invisible Crown is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 5 at Monmouth Park
Tru Greek and North Star Boy are scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 4 at Laurel Park.
:Baduke is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 2 at Belmont
Risky Sour is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 4 at Belmont.
Peculiar Sensation is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 4 at Belmont.
Priest N The Rabbi is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 9 at Belmon
Welcoming is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 8 at Belmont
Stonecoldfox Paz The Wine The Eagle Is Gone is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 7 at Belmont


Shore To Party finger lakes 4th
Every Way Out freehold race 3
Boston Red Rocks freehold race 7


Mel Mara yonkers race 10

Shore To Party winner 15.20
Every Way Out winner
he could 3rd
Boston Red Rocks winner
Peculiar Sensation winner 11.60
mel mara 3rd 9-1
Stonecoldfox winner
preist and rabbi scr.

[harthebar]

meaning horseplayers in general..not you

all good points and correct....he told me that years ago....he was giving me advice........

[harthebar]

yes only thing I disagree with is spreading out too much
with all in 2nd and 3rd because you're already keying a 70-1..Realize you can get burnt with that strategy but I'd rather have it multiple times with the other logicals surrounding it. .I'd say that even if I would have lost this one doing it..bottomline and I've read this in other books and believe it true, the public likes to bet the top 4 or 5 low odds horses in tris and supers because they have to hit now ..these obvious combos are overplayed so when a bomb gets in underneath the payoffs are mostly overlays relative to the odds..these types of horses are more likely to land 2nd-4th anyway so if you put your ego aside and try to cash them in those spots in tris and supers you'll do better than playing them on top long haul.. I'll put his formula in here today or tomorrow. .simple math and makes sense to me...his book definetly a good read. .more bet structuring than money management

one thing i do ...do...is in superfecta........i go in thinking any horse can get a 4th ..like to see it the formula.....it will only make me better..like i said..........i have bad money management......and i dont go for it enough

[harthebar]

Coalport race 7 keeneland

[harthebar]

Coalport race 7 keeneland

coalport winner 6 to 1

[JBEX]

one thing i do ...do...is in superfecta........i go in thinking any horse can get a 4th ..like to see it the formula.....it will only make me better..like i said..........i have bad money management......and i dont go for it enough

I can see going a little deeper in the 4th spot in supers
even all possibly, but not in the 2nd and 3rd spots ..since you're already keying a big price think you should only surround with logicals (less than 5-1)..you'll miss more but lose less when it doesn't happen...the big thing is you'll almost always be on a substantial overlays when you cash

formula

I'll use your race as an example...

going to be rounding things off to make the math easier. .
also don't have exact payoffs right in front of me but remember approximately what they were which is good enough

exacta $23

winner paid $6 (33% pool) 66% remaining
place horse 2-1 (same 33% as winner) ..so the place horse has half of the remaining 66% therefore exacta should be double the win price or $12

triple 536

66% pool 1st and 2nd..33% remaining ..
70-1 3rd..1.5% /33% remaining ..multiply
exacta by 22 (33/1.5)..22×12=264 correct price
which is lower than what I said earlier making actual triple price a more than 100% overlay

super 3800

1st 3 spots 68% of pool..32% remaining
3-1 (25%) 4th .. (32%/25%) or multiply triple by
1.33 = 352 super should pay..so again my earlier
estimates were much higher and this is an even bigger overlay

for some reason these numbers seem too low but think I applied the formula right..if I find out I did this wrong I'll
correct later at some point...not talking about the math but the formula

[harthebar]

tony tony


Zackos My Man

whats that horse look like to you he hasnt been out in a year or so....i know he has speed

[harthebar]

He Could is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 1 at Santa Anita
Invisible Crown is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 5 at Monmouth Park
Tru Greek and North Star Boy are scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 4 at Laurel Park.
:Baduke is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 2 at Belmont
Risky Sour is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 4 at Belmont.
Peculiar Sensation is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 4 at Belmont.
Priest N The Rabbi is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 9 at Belmon
Welcoming is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 8 at Belmont
Stonecoldfox Paz The Wine The Eagle Is Gone is scheduled to run on 10/15/2016 in Race 7 at Belmont


Shore To Party finger lakes 4th
Every Way Out freehold race 3
Boston Red Rocks freehold race 7


Mel Mara yonkers race 10

Shore To Party winner 15.20
Every Way Out winner
he could 3rd
Boston Red Rocks winner
Peculiar Sensation winner 11.60
mel mara 3rd 9-1
Stonecoldfox winner
Invincible crown 3 Rd 7 to 1
preist and rabbi scr.

[harthebar]

I can see going a little deeper in the 4th spot in supers
even all possibly, but not in the 2nd and 3rd spots ..since you're already keying a big price think you should only surround with logicals (less than 5-1)..you'll miss more but lose less when it doesn't happen...the big thing is you'll almost always be on a substantial overlays when you cash

formula

I'll use your race as an example...

going to be rounding things off to make the math easier. .
also don't have exact payoffs right in front of me but remember approximately what they were which is good enough

exacta $23

winner paid $6 (33% pool) 66% remaining
place horse 2-1 (same 33% as winner) ..so the place horse has half of the remaining 66% therefore exacta should be double the win price or $12

triple 536

66% pool 1st and 2nd..33% remaining ..
70-1 3rd..1.5% /33% remaining ..multiply
exacta by 22 (33/1.5)..22×12=264 correct price
which is lower than what I said earlier making actual triple price a more than 100% overlay

super 3800

1st 3 spots 68% of pool..32% remaining
3-1 (25%) 4th .. (32%/25%) or multiply triple by
1.33 = 352 super should pay..so again my earlier
estimates were much higher and this is an even bigger overlay

for some reason these numbers seem too low but think I applied the formula right..if I find out I did this wrong I'll
correct later at some point...not talking about the math but the formula

thanks jbex. very nice....im going to have to really take this in.....wow ..than ask you some questions

[JBEX]

thanks jbex. very nice....im going to have to really take this in.....wow ..than ask you some questions

when you can estimate what these tris and supers should pay and you see what they do pay you'll see the value of the bombs in 3rd and 4th surrounded by the logicals..in a game with very high takeout especially in those pools these types of overlays can't be passed up..absolutely.. any questions just ask

[harthebar]

when you can estimate what these tris and supers should pay and you see what they do pay you'll see the value of the bombs in 3rd and 4th surrounded by the logicals..in a game with very high takeout especially in those pools these types of overlays can't be passed up..absolutely.. any questions just ask

Will do. Have lots of them. Thanks

[harthebar]

Neoclassic is scheduled to run on 10/16/2016 in Race 6 at Belmont

Golden Mittens scheduled to run on 10/16/2016 in Race 7 at Laurel Park
She'soverthemoon on 10/16/2016 in Race 9 at Santa Anita.

Tuttipaesi (Ire) on 10/16/2016 in Race 8 at Woodbine

Loon River is scheduled to run on 10/16/2016 in Race 2 at Belmont

Dauphine Russe (Fr) is scheduled to run on 10/16/2016 in Race 9 at Belmont.
:Verve's Tale is scheduled to run on 10/16/2016 in Race 3 at Keeneland.

Charlesbrecknridge is scheduled to run on 10/16/2016 in Race 6 at Parx Racing.

[harthebar]

Neoclassic is scheduled to run on 10/16/2016 in Race 6 at Belmont

Golden Mittens scheduled to run on 10/16/2016 in Race 7 at Laurel Park
She'soverthemoon on 10/16/2016 in Race 9 at Santa Anita.

Tuttipaesi (Ire) on 10/16/2016 in Race 8 at Woodbine

Loon River is scheduled to run on 10/16/2016 in Race 2 at Belmont

Dauphine Russe (Fr) is scheduled to run on 10/16/2016 in Race 9 at Belmont.
:Verve's Tale is scheduled to run on 10/16/2016 in Race 3 at Keeneland.

Charlesbrecknridge is scheduled to run on 10/16/2016 in Race 6 at Parx Racing.

Verve's Tale winner.

[harthebar]

Private tale Belmont. Had a nice race last. Was closing going 4 wide
5th

[pabonaparte]

Private tale Belmont. Had a nice race last. Was closing going 4 wide
5th

Thanks for sharing, harthebar! Much appreciated.