Dexter's Saratoga 2011

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  • Dexter
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 12-24-08
    • 25829

    #106
    Delmar - Wednesday August 10th:

    R1: #5 California Soldier (5/1)
    R2: #4 Silver Street (4/1)
    R3: #4 Judge Joan (5/1)
    R4: #6 Kate's Event (5/1)
    R5: #9 Michailasheartlite (6/1)
    R6: #6 Valeria (5/1)*
    R7: #7 Thirtyfirststreet (5/1)
    R8: #8 Corsa Di Cavalli (8/1)

    $10 across all except R6 $20 across*
    Comment
    • Poppa Catfish
      SBR MVP
      • 09-22-10
      • 3352

      #107
      Great luck today Dex
      Comment
      • dumbmoney
        SBR High Roller
        • 07-26-11
        • 235

        #108
        No problem. In your case, since most of your picks are longer shots anyway the breakage isn't as significant and the show bet can still have some decent value. I think focusing on longer shots with value is a wise strategy in general. Again a lot has to do with breakage, and not something I think betters think about enough. If the avg breakage is 5cents/$1 wagered and your bet nets you $10 that breakage is only .5% of your win. If your win bet only nets you $1 that breakage is 5% of your win, and becomes very significant over time. Its hard enough to beat the takeout, when you start adding significant breakage on top of it, it gets almost impossible. I was just trying to pass on what I learned by looking back at my ROI, which was that in my case the show bets were under-performing my win/place bets by a large amount over a long period. Best of luck to you.
        Comment
        • Dexter
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 12-24-08
          • 25829

          #109
          Originally posted by dumbmoney
          No problem. In your case, since most of your picks are longer shots anyway the breakage isn't as significant and the show bet can still have some decent value. I think focusing on longer shots with value is a wise strategy in general. Again a lot has to do with breakage, and not something I think betters think about enough. If the avg breakage is 5cents/$1 wagered and your bet nets you $10 that breakage is only .5% of your win. If your win bet only nets you $1 that breakage is 5% of your win, and becomes very significant over time. Its hard enough to beat the takeout, when you start adding significant breakage on top of it, it gets almost impossible. I was just trying to pass on what I learned by looking back at my ROI, which was that in my case the show bets were under-performing my win/place bets by a large amount over a long period. Best of luck to you.
          Thx - do you consistently make money in this sport?
          Comment
          • dumbmoney
            SBR High Roller
            • 07-26-11
            • 235

            #110
            I have been making money lately, but have not been consistently over a long time. One big difference though is that I just started being smarter about my rebates. If I started this earlier, looking at my history I would actually be up instead of down. My best ROI is on the trifectas and I've been playing these more and more lately, since I am pretty consistent with them. When I look back over my history this entire year on twinspires without the rebates for tris it is:

            # of Bets Win % $1 ROI Wagered Payoff Profit/Loss
            5149 11.11% -0.02 $17961.80 $17544.05 $-417.75

            So overall, I lost money. However, I do think I've improved a lot over the course of the year. If I look at the last 3 months it is:

            # of Bets Win % $1 ROI Wagered Payoff Profit/Loss 1035 12.27% +0.16 $3934.80 $4580.45 $+645.65
            Its hard to know how much of that I can keep up consistently, and how much a few big scores helped.

            But also now in addition to this I'm getting back about 8-9% rebates on my tri bets. With that change I've been making money, and looking at my total history I think I can continue to be profitable with the rebates. But Tris are really the only bets that are profitable for me. My ROI on WP is about -.05 and exactas -.12, and supers -.20, so overall I loose money on those bets. I still play them for fun, but overall they haven't paid off.

            I don't think I can ever get to the point where I'm making that much money, but to be honest I've come to love this and just really want to continue to do this without loosing a ton of money like I was when I first started playing heavily 2 years ago.
            Comment
            • Dexter
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 12-24-08
              • 25829

              #111
              what circuit do you play?
              Comment
              • dumbmoney
                SBR High Roller
                • 07-26-11
                • 235

                #112
                I really play everything. My favorite track is Saratoga, though. I live in Saratoga so that's definitely part of it. But to be honest I really do play every thoroughbred track except for the quarter horses (although sometimes late at night if there is no other action I'll even play those). I will play the ones that give less rebates or a higher takeout less. I play a ton of small bets on a large number of races. On a heavy day I can play over 100 races across 15 different tracks. I don't spend a ton of time handicapping each race, and I handicap based really just based on the info in the PP. So aside from NYRA I don't really know the jockeys/trainers that well for any circuit, but I still use the stats in the PP to play them. In the past I've tried a little bit focusing more and analyzing fewer races going back watching video, but it was too time consuming and didn't really seem to help my win % too much. Its probably not the most effective strategy but I like the constant action.
                Comment
                • Dexter
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 12-24-08
                  • 25829

                  #113
                  Originally posted by Dexter
                  Saratoga - Wednesday August 10th:

                  R1: #2 Glory Game (6/1) (L-30)
                  R2: #8 Trashi Diva (L-30)
                  R3: #6 D'Bulldog (P+16.5)
                  R4: #5 Seeker (3/1) (S-13.5)
                  R5: #4 Emerald Beech (6/1) (W+96.5)
                  R6: #3 Need an Angel (4/1)* (W+61.5)
                  R7: #9 Storm Galileo (6/1) (L-30)
                  R8: #5 Sam Sparkle (P+0)
                  R9: #6 Distant Sky (5/1) (L-30)
                  R10: #3 Hershel (4/1)* (L-60)

                  $10 across all races except R3, R6, R10 $20 across*
                  8/10: -$19
                  Saratoga TTD: -$902.5
                  Comment
                  • Dexter
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 12-24-08
                    • 25829

                    #114
                    i'm always up and then crash and burn the last few races....i should just cancel my pending wagers when im up like $50 and call it a day...
                    Comment
                    • Dexter
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 12-24-08
                      • 25829

                      #115
                      Originally posted by Dexter
                      Delmar - Wednesday August 10th:

                      R1: #5 California Soldier (5/1) (L-30)
                      R2: #4 Silver Street (4/1) (S-11)
                      R3: #4 Judge Joan (5/1) (L-30)
                      R4: #6 Kate's Event (5/1) (L-30)
                      R5: #9 Michailasheartlite (6/1) (S+1)
                      R6: #6 Valeria (5/1)* (L-60)
                      R7: #7 Thirtyfirststreet (5/1) (scratched)
                      R8: #8 Corsa Di Cavalli (8/1) (W+137)

                      $10 across all except R6 $20 across*
                      8/10: $-23
                      Delmar TTD: -$344
                      Comment
                      • Dexter
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 12-24-08
                        • 25829

                        #116
                        Saratoga - Thursday August 11th:

                        R2: #2 Awesome Review (7/2)
                        R3: #3 Henry's Hurricane (7/2)
                        R4: #2 Hillswick (5/2)*
                        R5: #4 Lady Gold (6/1)
                        R6: #3 Research Report (6/1)
                        R7: #6 Cascadilla Falls (5/1)
                        R8: #6 Lady On the Run (6/1)
                        R9: #1 Speightscity (4/1)
                        R10: #5 Smart Enuf (6/1)

                        $10 across all races except R4 $20 across*
                        Comment
                        • Dexter
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 12-24-08
                          • 25829

                          #117
                          Delmar - Thursday August 11th:

                          R1: #3 Crestatorre (6/1)
                          R2: #2 Merrytagio (3/1)*
                          R3: #7 Salty Robbin (8/1)
                          R4: #5 Brady Blue Eyes (6/1)
                          R5: #3 Bold Remark (6/1)
                          R6: #3 Carrie Rose (6/1)
                          R7: #4 California Nectar (6/1)

                          $10 across all except R2 $20 across*
                          R8: #10 Change Order (5/1)
                          Comment
                          • Dexter
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 12-24-08
                            • 25829

                            #118
                            Saratoga: R3: $15/$15 (no show)
                            Comment
                            • Dexter
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 12-24-08
                              • 25829

                              #119
                              Delmar: R8: #7 Mr. Sproles (5/1) (10 is scratched)
                              Comment
                              • Dexter
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 12-24-08
                                • 25829

                                #120
                                Originally posted by Dexter
                                Saratoga - Thursday August 11th:

                                R2: #2 Awesome Review (7/2) (S-9)
                                R3: #3 Henry's Hurricane (7/2) (L-30)
                                R4: #2 Hillswick (5/2)* (L-60)
                                R5: #4 Lady Gold (6/1) (L-30)
                                R6: #3 Research Report (6/1) (S-7.5)
                                R7: #6 Cascadilla Falls (5/1) (W+82)
                                R8: #6 Lady On the Run (6/1) (L-30)
                                R9: #1 Speightscity (4/1) (L-30)
                                R10: #5 Smart Enuf (6/1) (L-30)

                                $10 across all races except R4 $20 across*
                                8/11: -$144.5
                                Saratoga TTD: -$1047
                                Comment
                                • Dexter
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 12-24-08
                                  • 25829

                                  #121
                                  Originally posted by Dexter
                                  Delmar - Thursday August 11th:

                                  R1: #3 Crestatorre (6/1) (S-7)
                                  R2: #2 Merrytagio (3/1)* (L-60)
                                  R3: #7 Salty Robbin (8/1) (L-30)
                                  R4: #5 Brady Blue Eyes (6/1) (L-30)
                                  R5: #3 Bold Remark (6/1) (L-30)
                                  R6: #3 Carrie Rose (6/1) (P+13)
                                  R7: #4 California Nectar (6/1) (W+128)
                                  R8: #7 Mr. Sproles (P+11)
                                  8/11: $-5
                                  Delmar TTD: -$349
                                  Comment
                                  • Dexter
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 12-24-08
                                    • 25829

                                    #122
                                    Saratoga 8/12:

                                    R1: #3 River City Rebel (6/1)
                                    R2: #1 The Vin Man (6/1)
                                    R3: #2 McCarren Park (4/1)
                                    R4: #3 Senora Dubai (3/1)
                                    R5: #3 Floating Alone (6/1)
                                    R6: #2 Plymouth Square (8/1)
                                    R7: #6 Big Blue Kitten (4/1)*
                                    R8: #6 Bear Heart (5/1)
                                    R9: #3 Dean Avenue (12/1)

                                    $10 across all - R7 $20 across*
                                    Comment
                                    • Dexter
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 12-24-08
                                      • 25829

                                      #123
                                      Saratoga: R5: #1 Starsilhouette (4/1) (3 scratched)
                                      Comment
                                      • Dexter
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 12-24-08
                                        • 25829

                                        #124
                                        Delmar 8/12:

                                        R1: #2 Warren's Baby Walk (3/1)
                                        R2: #2 Stu's Gone Wild (6/1)
                                        R3: #3 Dani Strikes (6/1)
                                        R4: #1 Triple Action (4/1)*
                                        R5: #2 Backwoods Belle (3/1)
                                        R6: #9 Shezabigbroad (7/2)
                                        R7: #6 Separate Forest (8/1)
                                        R8: #8 Senor Rain (6/1)

                                        $10 across for all - R4 $20 across*
                                        Comment
                                        • Dexter
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 12-24-08
                                          • 25829

                                          #125
                                          Delmar - R4: #3 Quite an Honour (#1 scratched)..still $20 across
                                          Comment
                                          • Dexter
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 12-24-08
                                            • 25829

                                            #126
                                            Originally posted by Dexter
                                            Saratoga 8/12:

                                            R1: #3 River City Rebel (6/1) (L-30)
                                            R2: #1 The Vin Man (6/1) (L-30)
                                            R3: #2 McCarren Park (4/1) (S-14.5)
                                            R4: #3 Senora Dubai (3/1) (W+41)
                                            R5: #1 Starsilhouette (S-13)
                                            R6: #2 Plymouth Square (8/1) (L-30)
                                            R7: #6 Big Blue Kitten (4/1)* (W+150)
                                            R8: #6 Bear Heart (5/1) (W+88.5)
                                            R9: #3 Dean Avenue (12/1) (L-30)

                                            $10 across all - R7 $20 across*
                                            8/12: +$132
                                            Saratoga TTD: -$915
                                            Comment
                                            • Dexter
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 12-24-08
                                              • 25829

                                              #127
                                              Originally posted by Dexter
                                              Delmar 8/12:

                                              R1: #2 Warren's Baby Walk (3/1) (L-30)
                                              R2: #2 Stu's Gone Wild (6/1) (L-30)
                                              R3: #3 Dani Strikes (6/1) (L-30)
                                              R4: #3 Quite an Honour (S-26)
                                              R5: #2 Backwoods Belle (3/1) (W+13)
                                              R6: #9 Shezabigbroad (7/2) (L-30)
                                              R7: #6 Separate Forest (8/1) (P+16)
                                              R8: #8 Senor Rain (6/1) (W+145)

                                              $10 across for all - R4 $20 across*
                                              8/12: +$28
                                              Delmar TTD: -$321
                                              Comment
                                              • Dexter
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 12-24-08
                                                • 25829

                                                #128
                                                Saratoga 8/13:

                                                R1: #7 Dugan (8/1)
                                                R2: #8 Smokem's Charm (6/1)
                                                R3: #3 Galliant Fields (7/2)
                                                R4: #2 Mr. Popps (4/1)
                                                R5: #4 Corporate Jungle (9/2)*
                                                R6: #7 Burned Bridges (8/1)
                                                R7: #10 Dullahan (6/1)
                                                R8: #1 Break Up the Game (6/1)*
                                                R9: #6 Jupiter Trio (5/1)*
                                                R10: #2 Grassy (5/1)*

                                                R11: #9 Recipe (4/1)

                                                $10 across all races - R5, R8, R9, R10 $20 across*
                                                Comment
                                                • Dexter
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 12-24-08
                                                  • 25829

                                                  #129
                                                  Delmar 8/13:

                                                  R1: #2 Hughesy (5/1)*
                                                  R2: #4 Secret Cove (5/1)
                                                  R3: #1 Candy Sweetheart (4/1)
                                                  R4: #1 Drill (7/2)*
                                                  R5: #4 Nahem (5/1)
                                                  R6: #4 Naturaliste (4/1)*
                                                  R7: #6 Centralinteligence (4/1)
                                                  R8: #3 Surrey Star (7/2)
                                                  R9: #5 Natalie's Academy (5/1)
                                                  R10: #6 No Flies On Doodle (6/1)*

                                                  $10 across all races - R1, R4, R6, R10 $20 across*
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Dexter
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 12-24-08
                                                    • 25829

                                                    #130
                                                    Spa: R10: #5 Boisterous (4/1) (#2 scratched) - $20 across
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Dexter
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 12-24-08
                                                      • 25829

                                                      #131
                                                      Originally posted by Dexter
                                                      Saratoga 8/13:

                                                      R1: #7 Dugan (8/1) (S-7)
                                                      R2: #8 Smokem's Charm (6/1) (S-11.5)
                                                      R3: #3 Galliant Fields (7/2) (S-17.5)
                                                      R4: #2 Mr. Popps (4/1) (S-12.5)
                                                      R5: #4 Corporate Jungle (9/2)* (W+75)
                                                      R6: #7 Burned Bridges (8/1) (L-30)
                                                      R7: #10 Dullahan (6/1) (P+8)
                                                      R8: #1 Break Up the Game (6/1)* (L-60)
                                                      R9: #6 Jupiter Trio (5/1)* (L-60)
                                                      R10: #5 Boisterous (4/1)*
                                                      (L-60)
                                                      R11: #9 Recipe (4/1) (L-30)

                                                      $10 across all races - R5, R8, R9, R10 $20 across*
                                                      8/13: -$205.50
                                                      Saratoga TTD: -$1120.50
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Dexter
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 12-24-08
                                                        • 25829

                                                        #132
                                                        Originally posted by Dexter
                                                        Delmar 8/13:

                                                        R1: #2 Hughesy (5/1)* (L-60)
                                                        R2: #4 Secret Cove (5/1) (W+116)
                                                        R3: #1 Candy Sweetheart (4/1) (P+7)
                                                        R4: #1 Drill (7/2)* (W+64)
                                                        R5: #4 Nahem (5/1) (S-5)
                                                        R6: #4 Naturaliste (4/1)* (L-60)
                                                        R7: #6 Centralinteligence (4/1) (L-30)
                                                        R8: #3 Surrey Star (7/2) (L-30)
                                                        R9: #5 Natalie's Academy (5/1) (P+24)
                                                        R10: #6 No Flies On Doodle (6/1)* (L-60)

                                                        $10 across all races - R1, R4, R6, R10 $20 across*
                                                        8/13: -$34
                                                        Delmar TTD: -$355
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Dexter
                                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                          • 12-24-08
                                                          • 25829

                                                          #133
                                                          Sunday 8/14:

                                                          R1: #3 Dreamingly (9/2)*
                                                          R2: #4 Coasting (10/1)
                                                          R3: #5 Proud and Charming (5/1)
                                                          R4: #5 Truelee Scrappin (7/2)
                                                          R5: #4 Purple Pico (10/1)
                                                          R6: #6 Awesome Arceno (5/1)
                                                          R7: #7 Book Review (6/1)
                                                          R8: #4 Glory in Motion (9/2)
                                                          R9: #4 Millionreasonswhy (5/2)
                                                          R10: #1 Blue Sixty Four (4/1)

                                                          $10 across all races - R1 $20 across*
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Dexter
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 12-24-08
                                                            • 25829

                                                            #134
                                                            Delmar 8/14:

                                                            R1: #3 Cactus House (3/1)
                                                            R2: #4 Robbie's War (6/1)
                                                            R3: #8 Storddim (8/1)
                                                            R4: #6 Sing Sing Cindrela (5/1)
                                                            R5: #2 Ivanho (5/1)
                                                            R6: #12 Sweet Nothings (8/1)
                                                            R7: #1 Minister d'Oro (5/1)*
                                                            R8: #3 Money Lover (6/1)
                                                            R9: #3 Wasted Tears (5/1)
                                                            R10: #6 Zombyslayermrdarcy (5/1)

                                                            $10 across all races - R7 $20 across*
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Dexter
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 12-24-08
                                                              • 25829

                                                              #135
                                                              Saratoga Monday 8/15:

                                                              R1: #6 Starforaday (7/2)
                                                              R2: #2 My Piano Man (7/2)
                                                              R3: #2B W. W.'s Lady's Man (4/1)
                                                              R4: #1 Miss Vindictive (10/1)
                                                              R5: #5 Kissa Melissa (4/1)
                                                              R6: #1A Pawnee Red (5/1)*
                                                              R7: #13 Victoria Lynn (8/1)
                                                              R8: #4 Indian Evening (5/1)
                                                              R9: #4 Slamming (6/1)

                                                              $15W/P for all - R6 $30W/P
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Dexter
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 12-24-08
                                                                • 25829

                                                                #136
                                                                Originally posted by Dexter
                                                                Sunday 8/14:

                                                                R1: #3 Dreamingly (9/2)* (W+123)
                                                                R2: #4 Coasting (10/1) (L-30)
                                                                R3: #5 Proud and Charming (5/1) (S-13)
                                                                R4: #5 Truelee Scrappin (7/2) (W+39.5)
                                                                R5: #4 Purple Pico (10/1) (L-30)
                                                                R6: #6 Awesome Arceno (5/1) (S-15)
                                                                R7: #7 Book Review (6/1) (P+11)
                                                                R8: #4 Glory in Motion (9/2) (L-30)
                                                                R9: #4 Millionreasonswhy (5/2) (P-7)
                                                                R10: #1 Blue Sixty Four (4/1) (L-30)

                                                                $10 across all races - R1 $20 across*
                                                                8/14: +$18.5
                                                                Saratoga TTD: -$1102
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Dexter
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 12-24-08
                                                                  • 25829

                                                                  #137
                                                                  Originally posted by Dexter
                                                                  Delmar 8/14:

                                                                  R1: #3 Cactus House (3/1) (L-30)
                                                                  R2: #4 Robbie's War (6/1) (S-7)
                                                                  R3: #8 Storddim (8/1) (L-30)
                                                                  R4: #6 Sing Sing Cindrela (5/1) (L-30)
                                                                  R5: #2 Ivanho (5/1) (L-30)
                                                                  R6: #12 Sweet Nothings (8/1) (L-30)
                                                                  R7: #1 Minister d'Oro (5/1)* (L-60)
                                                                  R8: #3 Money Lover (6/1) (L-30)
                                                                  R9: #3 Wasted Tears (5/1) (S-12)
                                                                  R10: #6 Zombyslayermrdarcy (5/1) (L-30)

                                                                  $10 across all races - R7 $20 across*

                                                                  8/14: -$289
                                                                  Delmar TTD: -$644
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Dexter
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 12-24-08
                                                                    • 25829

                                                                    #138
                                                                    Originally posted by Dexter
                                                                    Saratoga Monday 8/15:

                                                                    R1: #6 Starforaday (7/2) (L-30)
                                                                    R2: #2 My Piano Man (7/2) (L-30)
                                                                    R3: #2B W. W.'s Lady's Man (4/1) (P-7.5)
                                                                    R4: #1 Miss Vindictive (10/1) (W+44.25)
                                                                    R5: #5 Kissa Melissa (4/1) (L-30)
                                                                    R6: #1A Pawnee Red (5/1)* (L-60)
                                                                    R7: #13 Victoria Lynn (8/1) (L-30)
                                                                    R8: #4 Indian Evening (5/1) (L-30)
                                                                    R9: #4 Slamming (6/1) (W+74.25)

                                                                    $15W/P for all - R6 $30W/P
                                                                    8/15: -$99
                                                                    Saratoga TTD: -$1201
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Dexter
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 12-24-08
                                                                      • 25829

                                                                      #139
                                                                      *Saratoga ~ Wednesday August 17th*

                                                                      R1: #8 Sounds Familiar (6/1)
                                                                      R2: #6 High Stakes Player (5/1)
                                                                      R3: #1 Voodoo Daddy (4/1)*
                                                                      R4: #2 Evening Toast (4/1)
                                                                      R5: #3 Reserved Quality (7/2)*
                                                                      R6: #3 Raffie's Choice (5/1)
                                                                      R7: #2 Ganador (6/1)
                                                                      R8: #5 Untamed Glory (8/1)
                                                                      R9: #1 Pashito the Che (6/1)
                                                                      R10: #2 Getinitalltogether (6/1)

                                                                      *$15W/P all races - R3, R5 $30W/P
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Dexter
                                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                        • 12-24-08
                                                                        • 25829

                                                                        #140
                                                                        *Delmar ~ Wednesday August 17th*

                                                                        R1: #4 Full Effect (3/1)
                                                                        R2: #5 Hot Ticket (9/5)
                                                                        R3: #2 Ela Gorrie Mou (5/1)*
                                                                        R4: #3 Rare Song (5/1)
                                                                        R5: #1 Alala (7/2)
                                                                        R6: #11 Proud Cardenal (6/1)
                                                                        R7: #6 Gallant Son (5/1)
                                                                        R8: #7 Warren's Genius (8/1)

                                                                        *$15W/P all races - R3 $30W/P
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