Dexter's Saratoga 2011

[Dexter]

Delmar - Wednesday August 10th:

R1: #5 California Soldier (5/1)
R2: #4 Silver Street (4/1)
R3: #4 Judge Joan (5/1)
R4: #6 Kate's Event (5/1)
R5: #9 Michailasheartlite (6/1)
R6: #6 Valeria (5/1)*
R7: #7 Thirtyfirststreet (5/1)
R8: #8 Corsa Di Cavalli (8/1)

$10 across all except R6 $20 across*

[Poppa Catfish]

Great luck today Dex

[dumbmoney]

No problem. In your case, since most of your picks are longer shots anyway the breakage isn't as significant and the show bet can still have some decent value. I think focusing on longer shots with value is a wise strategy in general. Again a lot has to do with breakage, and not something I think betters think about enough. If the avg breakage is 5cents/$1 wagered and your bet nets you $10 that breakage is only .5% of your win. If your win bet only nets you $1 that breakage is 5% of your win, and becomes very significant over time. Its hard enough to beat the takeout, when you start adding significant breakage on top of it, it gets almost impossible. I was just trying to pass on what I learned by looking back at my ROI, which was that in my case the show bets were under-performing my win/place bets by a large amount over a long period. Best of luck to you.

[Dexter]

No problem. In your case, since most of your picks are longer shots anyway the breakage isn't as significant and the show bet can still have some decent value. I think focusing on longer shots with value is a wise strategy in general. Again a lot has to do with breakage, and not something I think betters think about enough. If the avg breakage is 5cents/$1 wagered and your bet nets you $10 that breakage is only .5% of your win. If your win bet only nets you $1 that breakage is 5% of your win, and becomes very significant over time. Its hard enough to beat the takeout, when you start adding significant breakage on top of it, it gets almost impossible. I was just trying to pass on what I learned by looking back at my ROI, which was that in my case the show bets were under-performing my win/place bets by a large amount over a long period. Best of luck to you.

Thx - do you consistently make money in this sport?

[dumbmoney]

I have been making money lately, but have not been consistently over a long time. One big difference though is that I just started being smarter about my rebates. If I started this earlier, looking at my history I would actually be up instead of down. My best ROI is on the trifectas and I've been playing these more and more lately, since I am pretty consistent with them. When I look back over my history this entire year on twinspires without the rebates for tris it is:

# of Bets Win % $1 ROI Wagered Payoff Profit/Loss
5149 11.11% -0.02 $17961.80 $17544.05 $-417.75

So overall, I lost money. However, I do think I've improved a lot over the course of the year. If I look at the last 3 months it is:

# of Bets Win % $1 ROI Wagered Payoff Profit/Loss 1035 12.27% +0.16 $3934.80 $4580.45 $+645.65
Its hard to know how much of that I can keep up consistently, and how much a few big scores helped.

But also now in addition to this I'm getting back about 8-9% rebates on my tri bets. With that change I've been making money, and looking at my total history I think I can continue to be profitable with the rebates. But Tris are really the only bets that are profitable for me. My ROI on WP is about -.05 and exactas -.12, and supers -.20, so overall I loose money on those bets. I still play them for fun, but overall they haven't paid off.

I don't think I can ever get to the point where I'm making that much money, but to be honest I've come to love this and just really want to continue to do this without loosing a ton of money like I was when I first started playing heavily 2 years ago.

[Dexter]

what circuit do you play?

[dumbmoney]

I really play everything. My favorite track is Saratoga, though. I live in Saratoga so that's definitely part of it. But to be honest I really do play every thoroughbred track except for the quarter horses (although sometimes late at night if there is no other action I'll even play those). I will play the ones that give less rebates or a higher takeout less. I play a ton of small bets on a large number of races. On a heavy day I can play over 100 races across 15 different tracks. I don't spend a ton of time handicapping each race, and I handicap based really just based on the info in the PP. So aside from NYRA I don't really know the jockeys/trainers that well for any circuit, but I still use the stats in the PP to play them. In the past I've tried a little bit focusing more and analyzing fewer races going back watching video, but it was too time consuming and didn't really seem to help my win % too much. Its probably not the most effective strategy but I like the constant action.

[Dexter]

Saratoga - Wednesday August 10th:

R1: #2 Glory Game (6/1) (L-30)
R2: #8 Trashi Diva (L-30)
R3: #6 D'Bulldog (P+16.5)
R4: #5 Seeker (3/1) (S-13.5)
R5: #4 Emerald Beech (6/1) (W+96.5)
R6: #3 Need an Angel (4/1)* (W+61.5)
R7: #9 Storm Galileo (6/1) (L-30)
R8: #5 Sam Sparkle (P+0)
R9: #6 Distant Sky (5/1) (L-30)
R10: #3 Hershel (4/1)* (L-60)

$10 across all races except R3, R6, R10 $20 across*

8/10: -$19
Saratoga TTD: -$902.5

[Dexter]

i'm always up and then crash and burn the last few races....i should just cancel my pending wagers when im up like $50 and call it a day...

[Dexter]

Delmar - Wednesday August 10th:

R1: #5 California Soldier (5/1) (L-30)
R2: #4 Silver Street (4/1) (S-11)
R3: #4 Judge Joan (5/1) (L-30)
R4: #6 Kate's Event (5/1) (L-30)
R5: #9 Michailasheartlite (6/1) (S+1)
R6: #6 Valeria (5/1)* (L-60)
R7: #7 Thirtyfirststreet (5/1) (scratched)
R8: #8 Corsa Di Cavalli (8/1) (W+137)

$10 across all except R6 $20 across*

8/10: $-23
Delmar TTD: -$344

[Dexter]

Saratoga - Thursday August 11th:

R2: #2 Awesome Review (7/2)
R3: #3 Henry's Hurricane (7/2)
R4: #2 Hillswick (5/2)*
R5: #4 Lady Gold (6/1)
R6: #3 Research Report (6/1)
R7: #6 Cascadilla Falls (5/1)
R8: #6 Lady On the Run (6/1)
R9: #1 Speightscity (4/1)
R10: #5 Smart Enuf (6/1)

$10 across all races except R4 $20 across*

[Dexter]

Delmar - Thursday August 11th:

R1: #3 Crestatorre (6/1)
R2: #2 Merrytagio (3/1)*
R3: #7 Salty Robbin (8/1)
R4: #5 Brady Blue Eyes (6/1)
R5: #3 Bold Remark (6/1)
R6: #3 Carrie Rose (6/1)
R7: #4 California Nectar (6/1)

$10 across all except R2 $20 across*
R8: #10 Change Order (5/1)

[Dexter]

Saratoga: R3: $15/$15 (no show)

[Dexter]

Delmar: R8: #7 Mr. Sproles (5/1) (10 is scratched)

[Dexter]

Saratoga - Thursday August 11th:

R2: #2 Awesome Review (7/2) (S-9)
R3: #3 Henry's Hurricane (7/2) (L-30)
R4: #2 Hillswick (5/2)* (L-60)
R5: #4 Lady Gold (6/1) (L-30)
R6: #3 Research Report (6/1) (S-7.5)
R7: #6 Cascadilla Falls (5/1) (W+82)
R8: #6 Lady On the Run (6/1) (L-30)
R9: #1 Speightscity (4/1) (L-30)
R10: #5 Smart Enuf (6/1) (L-30)

$10 across all races except R4 $20 across*

8/11: -$144.5
Saratoga TTD: -$1047

[Dexter]

Delmar - Thursday August 11th:

R1: #3 Crestatorre (6/1) (S-7)
R2: #2 Merrytagio (3/1)* (L-60)
R3: #7 Salty Robbin (8/1) (L-30)
R4: #5 Brady Blue Eyes (6/1) (L-30)
R5: #3 Bold Remark (6/1) (L-30)
R6: #3 Carrie Rose (6/1) (P+13)
R7: #4 California Nectar (6/1) (W+128)
R8: #7 Mr. Sproles (P+11)

8/11: $-5
Delmar TTD: -$349

[Dexter]

Saratoga 8/12:

R1: #3 River City Rebel (6/1)
R2: #1 The Vin Man (6/1)
R3: #2 McCarren Park (4/1)
R4: #3 Senora Dubai (3/1)
R5: #3 Floating Alone (6/1)
R6: #2 Plymouth Square (8/1)
R7: #6 Big Blue Kitten (4/1)*
R8: #6 Bear Heart (5/1)
R9: #3 Dean Avenue (12/1)

$10 across all - R7 $20 across*

[Dexter]

Saratoga: R5: #1 Starsilhouette (4/1) (3 scratched)

[Dexter]

Delmar 8/12:

R1: #2 Warren's Baby Walk (3/1)
R2: #2 Stu's Gone Wild (6/1)
R3: #3 Dani Strikes (6/1)
R4: #1 Triple Action (4/1)*
R5: #2 Backwoods Belle (3/1)
R6: #9 Shezabigbroad (7/2)
R7: #6 Separate Forest (8/1)
R8: #8 Senor Rain (6/1)

$10 across for all - R4 $20 across*

[Dexter]

Delmar - R4: #3 Quite an Honour (#1 scratched)..still $20 across

[Dexter]

Saratoga 8/12:

R1: #3 River City Rebel (6/1) (L-30)
R2: #1 The Vin Man (6/1) (L-30)
R3: #2 McCarren Park (4/1) (S-14.5)
R4: #3 Senora Dubai (3/1) (W+41)
R5: #1 Starsilhouette (S-13)
R6: #2 Plymouth Square (8/1) (L-30)
R7: #6 Big Blue Kitten (4/1)* (W+150)
R8: #6 Bear Heart (5/1) (W+88.5)
R9: #3 Dean Avenue (12/1) (L-30)

$10 across all - R7 $20 across*

8/12: +$132
Saratoga TTD: -$915

[Dexter]

Delmar 8/12:

R1: #2 Warren's Baby Walk (3/1) (L-30)
R2: #2 Stu's Gone Wild (6/1) (L-30)
R3: #3 Dani Strikes (6/1) (L-30)
R4: #3 Quite an Honour (S-26)
R5: #2 Backwoods Belle (3/1) (W+13)
R6: #9 Shezabigbroad (7/2) (L-30)
R7: #6 Separate Forest (8/1) (P+16)
R8: #8 Senor Rain (6/1) (W+145)

$10 across for all - R4 $20 across*

8/12: +$28
Delmar TTD: -$321

[Dexter]

Saratoga 8/13:

R1: #7 Dugan (8/1)
R2: #8 Smokem's Charm (6/1)
R3: #3 Galliant Fields (7/2)
R4: #2 Mr. Popps (4/1)
R5: #4 Corporate Jungle (9/2)*
R6: #7 Burned Bridges (8/1)
R7: #10 Dullahan (6/1)
R8: #1 Break Up the Game (6/1)*
R9: #6 Jupiter Trio (5/1)*
R10: #2 Grassy (5/1)*
R11: #9 Recipe (4/1)

$10 across all races - R5, R8, R9, R10 $20 across*

[Dexter]

Delmar 8/13:

R1: #2 Hughesy (5/1)*
R2: #4 Secret Cove (5/1)
R3: #1 Candy Sweetheart (4/1)
R4: #1 Drill (7/2)*
R5: #4 Nahem (5/1)
R6: #4 Naturaliste (4/1)*
R7: #6 Centralinteligence (4/1)
R8: #3 Surrey Star (7/2)
R9: #5 Natalie's Academy (5/1)
R10: #6 No Flies On Doodle (6/1)*

$10 across all races - R1, R4, R6, R10 $20 across*

[Dexter]

Spa: R10: #5 Boisterous (4/1) (#2 scratched) - $20 across

[Dexter]

Saratoga 8/13:

R1: #7 Dugan (8/1) (S-7)
R2: #8 Smokem's Charm (6/1) (S-11.5)
R3: #3 Galliant Fields (7/2) (S-17.5)
R4: #2 Mr. Popps (4/1) (S-12.5)
R5: #4 Corporate Jungle (9/2)* (W+75)
R6: #7 Burned Bridges (8/1) (L-30)
R7: #10 Dullahan (6/1) (P+8)
R8: #1 Break Up the Game (6/1)* (L-60)
R9: #6 Jupiter Trio (5/1)* (L-60)
R10: #5 Boisterous (4/1)* (L-60)
R11: #9 Recipe (4/1) (L-30)

$10 across all races - R5, R8, R9, R10 $20 across*

8/13: -$205.50
Saratoga TTD: -$1120.50

[Dexter]

Delmar 8/13:

R1: #2 Hughesy (5/1)* (L-60)
R2: #4 Secret Cove (5/1) (W+116)
R3: #1 Candy Sweetheart (4/1) (P+7)
R4: #1 Drill (7/2)* (W+64)
R5: #4 Nahem (5/1) (S-5)
R6: #4 Naturaliste (4/1)* (L-60)
R7: #6 Centralinteligence (4/1) (L-30)
R8: #3 Surrey Star (7/2) (L-30)
R9: #5 Natalie's Academy (5/1) (P+24)
R10: #6 No Flies On Doodle (6/1)* (L-60)

$10 across all races - R1, R4, R6, R10 $20 across*

8/13: -$34
Delmar TTD: -$355

[Dexter]

Sunday 8/14:

R1: #3 Dreamingly (9/2)*
R2: #4 Coasting (10/1)
R3: #5 Proud and Charming (5/1)
R4: #5 Truelee Scrappin (7/2)
R5: #4 Purple Pico (10/1)
R6: #6 Awesome Arceno (5/1)
R7: #7 Book Review (6/1)
R8: #4 Glory in Motion (9/2)
R9: #4 Millionreasonswhy (5/2)
R10: #1 Blue Sixty Four (4/1)

$10 across all races - R1 $20 across*

[Dexter]

Delmar 8/14:

R1: #3 Cactus House (3/1)
R2: #4 Robbie's War (6/1)
R3: #8 Storddim (8/1)
R4: #6 Sing Sing Cindrela (5/1)
R5: #2 Ivanho (5/1)
R6: #12 Sweet Nothings (8/1)
R7: #1 Minister d'Oro (5/1)*
R8: #3 Money Lover (6/1)
R9: #3 Wasted Tears (5/1)
R10: #6 Zombyslayermrdarcy (5/1)

$10 across all races - R7 $20 across*

[Dexter]

Saratoga Monday 8/15:

R1: #6 Starforaday (7/2)
R2: #2 My Piano Man (7/2)
R3: #2B W. W.'s Lady's Man (4/1)
R4: #1 Miss Vindictive (10/1)
R5: #5 Kissa Melissa (4/1)
R6: #1A Pawnee Red (5/1)*
R7: #13 Victoria Lynn (8/1)
R8: #4 Indian Evening (5/1)
R9: #4 Slamming (6/1)

$15W/P for all - R6 $30W/P

[Dexter]

Sunday 8/14:

R1: #3 Dreamingly (9/2)* (W+123)
R2: #4 Coasting (10/1) (L-30)
R3: #5 Proud and Charming (5/1) (S-13)
R4: #5 Truelee Scrappin (7/2) (W+39.5)
R5: #4 Purple Pico (10/1) (L-30)
R6: #6 Awesome Arceno (5/1) (S-15)
R7: #7 Book Review (6/1) (P+11)
R8: #4 Glory in Motion (9/2) (L-30)
R9: #4 Millionreasonswhy (5/2) (P-7)
R10: #1 Blue Sixty Four (4/1) (L-30)

$10 across all races - R1 $20 across*

8/14: +$18.5
Saratoga TTD: -$1102

[Dexter]

Delmar 8/14:

R1: #3 Cactus House (3/1) (L-30)
R2: #4 Robbie's War (6/1) (S-7)
R3: #8 Storddim (8/1) (L-30)
R4: #6 Sing Sing Cindrela (5/1) (L-30)
R5: #2 Ivanho (5/1) (L-30)
R6: #12 Sweet Nothings (8/1) (L-30)
R7: #1 Minister d'Oro (5/1)* (L-60)
R8: #3 Money Lover (6/1) (L-30)
R9: #3 Wasted Tears (5/1) (S-12)
R10: #6 Zombyslayermrdarcy (5/1) (L-30)

$10 across all races - R7 $20 across*

8/14: -$289
Delmar TTD: -$644

[Dexter]

Saratoga Monday 8/15:

R1: #6 Starforaday (7/2) (L-30)
R2: #2 My Piano Man (7/2) (L-30)
R3: #2B W. W.'s Lady's Man (4/1) (P-7.5)
R4: #1 Miss Vindictive (10/1) (W+44.25)
R5: #5 Kissa Melissa (4/1) (L-30)
R6: #1A Pawnee Red (5/1)* (L-60)
R7: #13 Victoria Lynn (8/1) (L-30)
R8: #4 Indian Evening (5/1) (L-30)
R9: #4 Slamming (6/1) (W+74.25)

$15W/P for all - R6 $30W/P

8/15: -$99
Saratoga TTD: -$1201

[Dexter]

*Saratoga ~ Wednesday August 17th*

R1: #8 Sounds Familiar (6/1)
R2: #6 High Stakes Player (5/1)
R3: #1 Voodoo Daddy (4/1)*
R4: #2 Evening Toast (4/1)
R5: #3 Reserved Quality (7/2)*
R6: #3 Raffie's Choice (5/1)
R7: #2 Ganador (6/1)
R8: #5 Untamed Glory (8/1)
R9: #1 Pashito the Che (6/1)
R10: #2 Getinitalltogether (6/1)

*$15W/P all races - R3, R5 $30W/P

[Dexter]

*Delmar ~ Wednesday August 17th*

R1: #4 Full Effect (3/1)
R2: #5 Hot Ticket (9/5)
R3: #2 Ela Gorrie Mou (5/1)*
R4: #3 Rare Song (5/1)
R5: #1 Alala (7/2)
R6: #11 Proud Cardenal (6/1)
R7: #6 Gallant Son (5/1)
R8: #7 Warren's Genius (8/1)

*$15W/P all races - R3 $30W/P