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I just think this game has 2 many variables for my feeble mind.
CD R2. Tap Into This #7 2-1 ML. Has been very competitive. Has F Prat today. Prev/Last ridden by K Assmussen. K Assmussen rides the #6 @ 10-1 ML. Why? I've seen similar before with this father son and don't understand.
Same race. The 1 Gearing Up. Nice horse. Very competitive on Turf. Trying his 1st on Dirt. Why?
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Another
CAN R2 #5 Rich City Girl.
10/24 4th start at KEE 600K.
5/25 5th start 7 months off PM 50K??? Wins somewhat easy
Today 6th start CAN for 30K, switching D -> T. WTF??
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Haven't forgot the Big Brown stuff. It's coming.
I'm finding myself busy these days and with trying to get readers on these Army Mules, it is a job in itself. Maybe after yesterdays and todays results, some might start believing. Hope so for their sake.
Madison: You are just FINE. Older and smarter.
First thing. FORGET THE MORNING LINE ODDS !!
They are an educated guess put out days before the race. You don't need anybody to tell you who should be favored.
Assmussen's father has two horses in the race. Most likely is 1 of 2 scenarios. Either his dad wants him on the first time starter because his son knows him from the mornings, or, the rider wants to be on that firster even if it means getting off of todays logical winner because he is high on him, or, the trainer could get Prat on a favorite so why not, or any number of reasons. So what do you do?
You watch the odds board and pick3's or whatever and watch where the money goes on that firster. Prat's mount will ,most likely run just fine. The firster could be really good either today or long term. Watch the money.
Do like I do when it comes to program odds.... don't even look. They are as overrated an angle as there is. Put them completely out of your mind.
When I do see them sometimes I just snicker a bit at how dumb they can be.
The money will talk. Don't pay a lick of attention to those ML odds Madison.
Geared Up : Maybe he did not get into the last long race on turf and the horse is ready to run. That happens often enough to be plausible. Or, why not try dirt. Runs on everything else and maybe this one is best on dirt? I don't know.
I would not read anything into that. It's not like the horse has run poorly on dirt yet. Maybe this horse runs hard period and does not care about the surface.
No need to read into that IMO. I would not run to bet him but I would watch him. Especially if he does NOT like the dirt, runs poorly and comes back where he DOES like a surface. That plays right into your knowledge base having seen him run poorly on dirt so that's a good thing for you.
GL sir.Comment -
IMO, this ,horse is being beautifully managed by the trainer. He is excellent and showing why again today.
They paid 435K for her as a 2 yr. old in training. Obviously they have high hopes for her.
She is bred to go long as well or better than any horse in here. He managed her perfectly in her first three races and tried to take that big step last October. Yes, it was a tough race. But when you pay 435k and your horse is winning for less, it's time to try an her big girl pants. She ran well but faltered and immediately got time off. Excellent work there by the trainer.
Let her grow as that 2 yr. old campaign was enough. Remember, this is long term managing here not a claimer.
As for today: If ALL THESE RUN TO THERE BEST EFFORT, THIS 5 HORSE WILL WIN EASILY.
She can go to the front or better still, give her a chance to learn by letting the 1 horse go and focus on getting her to relax a bit with the 1 in front and the 4 horse maybe in with her if they send her to the 1 or, outrun the 4 and stalk from 2nd. Either way, if this horse responds when asked, she will blow by those two mentioned around the far turn and most likely win eased up.
That is if everything goes well. These are horses though, so the only sure thing is there IS NO sure thing. But she is by far the best horse in here going in.
I love the trainers management here Madison.Comment -
As always, your time and knowledge is much appreciated!! Thank you!!Comment -
Last 2 horses today by Army Mule:
canterbury 4 @ 7:40
#5 lemon bomb (8-1)
Lemon Bomb: They will know she was in then race no doubt. Some attractive numbers and she is fast. She has to avoid the speed duel with the 2 horse. Needs to relax off that 2 horse and run her down into the stretch. If she goes off 8-1 as suggested, she would win more than 1 out of 8 of these, so... there is value to that price.
prarie meadows 4 @ 8:16
#6 kissed a cadet (2-1)
Kissed A Cadet: In a race where no horse really looks like it wants to go two turns, this Army Mule is more bred to do that than any of the others. Sometimes, in races like these, the slowest horse wins because the others burn out early and the plodder picks up the pieces. So this one certainly can win but if it is as low a price as expected, I usually try and get cute and put the AM on top of the plodder and a very small win ticket on the plodder. In this case the slow early plodder is most likely the 1 or the 2. The exacta prices would most likely determine which one or both or... neither.Comment -
Yesterday: a win, a 4th, a 2nd, Canterbury was cancelled I guess, and in the last, a race that none of the speeds really wanted to go that far, as I spoke to, the plodders I spoke about, the 1 and the 2 saver win tickets would have worked well.
The 1 paid 22.80.
It's important that you try and identify these types of races. You don't see them all that often but when you do, there is little confidence with any of the favorites because they are all trying to go long but none have showed a sign that they can stay for the whole race with any pressure . So my suggestion of using the 1 and the 2 as long shot win bets was not based on them being better. Just having a chance to stay around when the others would most likely be out of gas. That is exactly what happened.
So, please try and look at races by setting up the scenario of where the horses should be early, middle and late. Nothing works always in racing, but when you identify longshots that will simply outlast the speeds or plodders as I called them, it makes you look smarter than you sometimes are. The payout it great but the confidence that you gain from seeing a race and having it play out right before your eyes, is a winning feeling. That will carry over with confidence. In this game, confidence in your thought process is EVERYTHING.
Hope that helps. GL.Last edited by str; 06-22-25, 09:13 AM.Comment -
Madison:
Or any others interested.
I want you to find the search bar. It is at the top of each page. Type in Big Brown where it says search and click on the magnifying glass.
A full page will come up and I want you to read all that. Take your time. I answered several questions in depth about that race. There are most likely more questions and answers floating around and you could find the page from all those years back and just read the Big Brown stuff. Irt is a lot but it covers everything to my knowledge that you will need to better understand what happened.
Please let me know if you have any questions once you read it, or, if you have difficulty finding it. It should really help you better understand what went on.
That search bar has 14 + years of horses and handicapping within it. Type in any words that might fit a narrative and hopefully it takes you there.
Again, follow up if necessary.
Hope that helps everyone.Comment -
army mule sunday
woodbine 10 @ 8:37
#5 midnight mascot (12-1)
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I went through the race, albeit quickly, and see not very much early speed. That can change the outcome with a slow pace. Need to look at it harder.
what I did notice is that this horse seems to stretch out well off a sprint when off time. He ran great last year in a grade 3 doing that. No reason the trainer isn’t working this angle again. That makes this one a live 12-1 in the making.
He is well worth a hard look at a price IMO.Comment -
think the last race off a long layoff and in a short sprint was basically getting a race in for some fitness ..even though he was successful sprinting starting his career based on his whole 2024 it's about distance now .. he was a proven competitor at it last year at very high levels ..also the best jock/trainer combo and as a lightly raced 4yo has definite potential to improve..the works have been regular and sharp since his last race
I think #1 and #10 will likely make for a fair pace which will certainly help his cause as a deep closerComment -
Totally agree with that sprint as a workout prep to stretch out. If you see a horse that has been successful in the past doing that it is such a great opportunity to be able to repeat it off time. Heck of a good angle to stretch out off the sprint if it’s worked before. Perfect for the handicapper.
I love that setup.Last edited by str; 06-22-25, 12:26 PM.Comment -
yes I like repeat patterns like that also ..stretchout ,2nd or 3rd off a layoff or effective off a similar length one ..couple of other things I noticed was that race off stretched out off had an extremely slow pace so was very compromised..another is off an almost identical layoff as today he ran a solid 3rd in the kings plate ..this horse was capable of sitting close early in his career but not in his last few ..add being by army mule and the change of running style a bit puzzlingComment -
MRH has # 9 Duke of love in this race( I don't have a a share but here are some comments....
Duke of Love is set to return to the races for the first time following his disappointing effort in the G3 Ben Ali at Keeneland. He will break from post 9 in race 10 today at Woodbine with post time coming at 6:03 p.m ET. Young up-and-comer Fraser Aebly has the call to ride.
He returns to Canada and the Woodbine synthetic surface, over which he is graded-stakes placed. If he puts forth his ‘A’ effort, it should be enough to best this field. We are hopeful that Duke can get back on track in this spot.
More on the competition:
#1 Maakwa: Makes his third start off of the layoff, and given those two most recent efforts, he will have to improve significantly.
#2 Lac Macaza: Makes his first start of the year. Has run respectable figures in the past, and his best race could contest for a win here, however that may be a tall task given the layoff.
#3 Last Dawn: Comes in here second off of a layoff. Likely needed that run last time out and should fare better in here. That being said, he will still have to improve off his best figures to compete for a win.
#4 Roscar: Ran well in his most recent start, which was his first off of the layoff. Should take a step forward. Has seen his biggest success over longer distances, and have to think he’d appreciate a bit more ground.
#5 Midnight Mascot: The third-place finisher from last years King’s Plate comes into this spot off of a disappointing sprint effort first off of the layoff. Certainly needed that start and will stretch back out in this race. Has to be given a look in here.
#6 Cool Kiss: Was claimed for $40K out of an optional claimer last fall. Was given the winter off and returned against graded company off the layoff in a race where he was well beaten. Connections had to be high on him to run him in that race and he will get some class relief in here. Certainly a respectable foe.
#7 Can Group: Will make his first start on a synthetic surface for top conditioner Mark Casse. Sports some back class on turf, however was in his best form at two years old.
#8 Legal Catch: Rallied late to be 4th in his first start off of the layoff. Has that run into him now and should improve, however he may be a touch outclassed by some of the other runners in this group.
#10 Fighter in the Win: Comes into this spot off of two consecutive victories against lesser company. Will need a major step forward to be competitive in here.
#11 Swift Delivery: Just missed last time out going a mile on the lawn. Adds blinkers for this start and should be fit for the distance. Has only one win from 6 starts over the synthetic surface, however that one win was his career-best 90 Beyer earned when breaking his maiden.Comment -
army mule .. monday
presque isle 3 @ 5:54
#4 calvary kat (2-1)
mountaineer 7 @ 9:30
#1 lieutenant stan (4-1)
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ml odds are about what I feel about both of them ..lieutenant stan, think the 7f turf last out was for fitness and the way he ran vs claimers at tampa bay is a good fit here .. he did win 2nd off an almost identical layoff 7 starts back ..came back quicker and did more 1st off that time but i still like the angleComment -
Hi Batt ! Great to see you back. Hope your folks are doing well.Hey all.... Been busy with life's up's and downs... Hope to be posting more...
Most of my horses have been at the farm or just getting back... But I know STR liked "Black tie optional" while he was at wavertree... He is out at Los alimotos where baffert gets them ready and prepped before moving to the first string... Here are his last workouts most recent this morning...
Black Tie Optional Workout Report
7 days ago....
Black Tie Optional breezed three furlongs in :37.40 while on the outside of stablemate Cherokee Nation, a $1.15-million yearling purchase by Not This Time. Your 2-year-old colt always seemed to have his mate measured and showed that early speed he has displayed since joining the Baffert barn at Los Alamitos. Assistant trainer Mike Marlow continues to bring him along at a steady pace, while being in no rush. Overall, Mike is pleased with how the colt has been doing.
And this morning....
Black Tie Optional Workout Report
Black Tie Optional breezed three furlongs in :35.80 (1/7)this morning at Los Alamitos. Assistant trainer Mike Marlow wanted to give him one more 3/8th’s while increasing the intensity and your son of Not This Time handled it well working on the outside of Cherokee Nation. He showed his customary early foot and continued out well past the wire, always holding a slight edge over his mate. Mike reported he will now be ready to go a half-mile next week.
https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/b...0441787448.mp4
I will check out the links for my boy BTO. He did catch my eye early . Honestly more for his demeanor and his mental state than pure physicality but he is indeed my favorite. I appreciate the access to see him . Always enjoy watching some morning work.
Will check it out and get back to you.
All the best my friend,
strLast edited by str; Yesterday, 04:13 PM.Comment -
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Thanks JBEX and STR
I appreciate it..... yes little bit of a struggle dealing with life up's and downs....Parents are okay for now..... But like Lukas doing life on their terms.... enough said.... always looking in on this forum....
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Hang in there Batt. They were there for you, now you are there for them. Circle of life. It can be really tough but it's worth every minute of it when you look back. Nothing's easy.
All the very best my friend.Comment -
One of the horses I have (real savy) Now trained by Miguel Clement after the passing of his father broke his maiden last year ... With a nice 77 Beyer figure( sister race a few races later the winner had a 68 Beyer) Christophe Clement was really excited about him being a New York bred and keeping him on the turf restricted to New York breds.
They gave him some time off and started to bring him back ... Long story short he needed tie back surgery...which went really well and now he is back at Belmont!
One other horse I had (and I remember chatting with STR about the surgery) It didn't go as planned and she is now retired.
Real Savvy Back at Belmont hope he comes back strong!
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You were due for a successful tieback surgery Batt. That is great to hear ! Thanks for the update. Keep me posted. He is in very good hands.One of the horses I have (real savy) Now trained by Miguel Clement after the passing of his father broke his maiden last year ... With a nice 77 Beyer figure( sister race a few races later the winner had a 68 Beyer) Christophe Clement was really excited about him being a New York bred and keeping him on the turf restricted to New York breds.
They gave him some time off and started to bring him back ... Long story short he needed tie back surgery...which went really well and now he is back at Belmont!
One other horse I had (and I remember chatting with STR about the surgery) It didn't go as planned and she is now retired.
Real Savvy Back at Belmont hope he comes back strong!
That outfit from top to bottom was first class when I visited Saratoga about 11 years ago. I left very impressed.Comment -
I was just informed the D. Wayne Lukas has passed away. While unofficial as I have not seen it in print, it comes from a fairly reliable person.
The guy transformed the game.
Rest In Peace sir.Comment
