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  • JBEX
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 01-02-12
    • 23173

    #7876
    [QUOTE=str;31328706]My take on our stable Lol. I wish !
    With these top tier horses, they are so fast, and have so much talent, the mental really comes into play with some of them. I've said it a ton before, but they are really all just a little different mentally. And if something occurs and they are not careful, they can lock on that and disrupt their own progression . Kingsbarns is the poster horse for that. Deterministic to a lesser extent. World Record will face an opportunity to become a relax or go push button type most likely with his next start. I am really optimistic about him going forward because he blasted off early, but seemed to come right back to the rider after establishing his spot in front. That should never be taken for granted. That was really impressive in my book. WR has a chance to really shine from here out.


    The Ky. Derby can cook a horse in a minute and we saw that up close with KB. It has taken a year to get straight again, and for the moment, he is. Can he fall into that groove? I sure hope so. I was watching some Saratoga yesterday and heard the 2nd string trying to say that the three year olds could easily dominate the rest of the year with such a weak 4 year old or older group of boys going long. And while they are asked to provide many opinions whether they actually have one or not, with this 3 year old crop getting better which they normally do about now, KB isn't even registering in peoples minds right now. That is just fine with me.

    Saw that Deterministic is pointing for the Saratoga Derby. Clement says that if he can't handle that, blame me. I love that! He takes the focus off the horse and puts the heat on himself. You don't always see a trainer do that. Every year around Saratoga time, Clement shows me more and more. Simply put, he is a GREAT trainer.[/QUOTE]



    strong words from as respectable a trainer as there is considering the assignment..best chance you'll have to get a nice price on him and looking forward to see it regardless


    imagine if he wins or runs well they'd have to be considering a breeders cup race (with one in-between)..cutting back to a mile or stretching to a mile and half would be a tough decision as he'd probably be best somewhere in the middle .. one step at a time as they say
    Comment
    • str
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 01-12-09
      • 11611

      #7877
      [QUOTE=JBEX;31329038]
      Originally posted by str
      My take on our stable Lol. I wish !
      With these top tier horses, they are so fast, and have so much talent, the mental really comes into play with some of them. I've said it a ton before, but they are really all just a little different mentally. And if something occurs and they are not careful, they can lock on that and disrupt their own progression . Kingsbarns is the poster horse for that. Deterministic to a lesser extent. World Record will face an opportunity to become a relax or go push button type most likely with his next start. I am really optimistic about him going forward because he blasted off early, but seemed to come right back to the rider after establishing his spot in front. That should never be taken for granted. That was really impressive in my book. WR has a chance to really shine from here out.


      The Ky. Derby can cook a horse in a minute and we saw that up close with KB. It has taken a year to get straight again, and for the moment, he is. Can he fall into that groove? I sure hope so. I was watching some Saratoga yesterday and heard the 2nd string trying to say that the three year olds could easily dominate the rest of the year with such a weak 4 year old or older group of boys going long. And while they are asked to provide many opinions whether they actually have one or not, with this 3 year old crop getting better which they normally do about now, KB isn't even registering in peoples minds right now. That is just fine with me.

      Saw that Deterministic is pointing for the Saratoga Derby. Clement says that if he can't handle that, blame me. I love that! He takes the focus off the horse and puts the heat on himself. You don't always see a trainer do that. Every year around Saratoga time, Clement shows me more and more. Simply put, he is a GREAT trainer.[/QUOTE]



      strong words from as respectable a trainer as there is considering the assignment..best chance you'll have to get a nice price on him and looking forward to see it regardless


      imagine if he wins or runs well they'd have to be considering a breeders cup race (with one in-between)..cutting back to a mile or stretching to a mile and half would be a tough decision as he'd probably be best somewhere in the middle .. one step at a time as they say
      Certainly believe what you said is true. I've seen much worse bets than this one. And the price should be at least 6-1 and I would think a bit higher but I just glanced so far.
      At least if you lose, you know that a HOF trainer felt the same way. You can bet he is not running to be 3rd.

      I'll spend more time on the race later this week. Let's discuss again beforehand.
      Comment
      • JBEX
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 01-02-12
        • 23173

        #7878
        [QUOTE=str;31329313]
        Originally posted by JBEX
        Certainly believe what you said is true. I've seen much worse bets than this one. And the price should be at least 6-1 and I would think a bit higher but I just glanced so far.
        At least if you lose, you know that a HOF trainer felt the same way. You can bet he is not running to be 3rd.

        I'll spend more time on the race later this week. Let's discuss again beforehand.
        ok str .. look forward to your thoughts..my "initial" impression is #4 diego velazquez (2-1) is going to be a handful..

        firmer surface looks to be a benefit


        distance should be perfect off his last win

        ran well vs top graded euro competition


        looked to be (going by head-on) within 4-5 lengths at the quarter pole 2 races back @ 1 1/2 miles..race available on you tube..purple white stripes and horse has a big white slash forehead #5 (post corresponds)


        crushed g3's in Ireland @ 1 1/8 miles in his following race and comes over here in 16 days

        ryan moore , aiden o'brien and horse is a $2.8M son of frankel


        certainly other talented horses but to me he's the scariest by far and it's reflected in the ml


        .
        Comment
        • JBEX
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 01-02-12
          • 23173

          #7879
          DV last race and guessing all others available on YT
          Comment
          • JBEX
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 01-02-12
            • 23173

            #7880
            I think the connections would be very happy with a 2nd here considering the move up in class,longer distance and overall light experience on the surface..looks like they'll be plenty of pace to run into which is to his benefit
            Comment
            • str
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 01-12-09
              • 11611

              #7881
              Originally posted by JBEX
              I think the connections would be very happy with a 2nd here considering the move up in class,longer distance and overall light experience on the surface..looks like they'll be plenty of pace to run into which is to his benefit
              Don't think they would ever say that beforehand but after the race, at least it would affirm their thoughts that he can go that far on the turf.

              So I agree but it was rare I was ok with 2nd before most of my races and they were claimers and maidens Lol. Of course, at the 1/4 pole, that was often times another story.
              Comment
              • JBEX
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 01-02-12
                • 23173

                #7882
                Originally posted by str
                Don't think they would ever say that beforehand but after the race, at least it would affirm their thoughts that he can go that far on the turf.

                So I agree but it was rare I was ok with 2nd before most of my races and they were claimers and maidens Lol. Of course, at the 1/4 pole, that was often times another story.

                yeah I realize he can't say that but a 2nd here to me is a win in terms of nice progress going forward..also pocket $120k which is nothing to sneeze at..with a good race but no win he's also still eligible for an n2x which he would have plenty of bottom for off this race (assuming it's 1m or 8.5f)


                I think my play would be along those lines ..straight exacta DV/DM (4/5) which I'm guessing would pay low 20's for $2..wouldn't reverse it for a smaller amount although 3x (45) and 1x (54) probably about gets your money back if he wins..DV not top 2 I lose
                Comment
                • batt33
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 12-23-16
                  • 5981

                  #7883
                  Originally posted by str
                  Hey all, we do have a lot going on in here these days but wanted to take a minute and give a shout out to BATT . He is most likely fighting those fires in Calif. as we speak and just hope he is OK.

                  Thank you for your service.

                  Stay safe Batt! We're thinking about you.
                  Thanks STR and all. Just got back from an assignment In northern CA(gold complex). we were able to put the fires to bed! Lots of hard work by multiple agencies ... it could have gone bad real quick, It felt really good to catch it , and not lose any structures and no injuries .While I was there one of our teammates who was with us lost his house to the "park fire" My Mentor and former member of our team his daughter lost here house also.... my house was close to being in the evac zone( but in reality the winds were in my favor to not be a threat but still....).
                  Comment
                  • batt33
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 12-23-16
                    • 5981

                    #7884
                    Originally posted by batt33
                    [COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Real Savvy Workout Report
                    https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/b...1490874468.mp4

                    [/COLOR]
                    Real Savvy breezed a half mile in :49.16 this morning over the Saratoga main track. Your son of Authentic worked (inside) in company with Escapades, breezing head and head to the wire and proved best on the gallop out.
                    As we reported in yesterday’s update, we are going to consider entering Real Savvy for a NY-bred maiden special weight on August 1st as a main track only entrant.
                    Assistant trainer Miguel Clement provided a quick update which can be seen above in addition to the work.
                    Races today 8-1 race 6 Saratoga. #12 I haven't really had a chance to look yet.... cleaning up gear.... and just catching up on sleep and things,
                    Comment
                    • batt33
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 12-23-16
                      • 5981

                      #7885
                      Originally posted by batt33
                      [COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Visceral Entry Update
                      [/COLOR]
                      Visceral is officially in for next Thursday at Del Mar. He’ll be the #2 among a field of eight carded as the day’s fourth race. Post time is 3:30 p.m. PT.
                      We’ll follow up with a closer look at the competition in the coming days, but at a glance it looks like a well-matched group that Visceral certainly fits with. Note that he also qualifies for the maiden dirt bonus which bumps the purse up to $90K.
                      [COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Visceral Post-Race Follow-Up
                      [/COLOR]
                      Upon post-race scope, Visceral was discovered to have a pretty nasty sub-epiglottic ulcer which led to an entrapped epiglottis.
                      The good news is that this would absolutely be a valid excuse for Visceral’s performance. In that regard Mark and we feel some relief as Visceral was simply showing too much to run like he did without a reason behind it. Perhaps the fact that he ran even as well as he did can be taken as a positive now.
                      The less positive news is that Visceral will need a little bit of down time and a minor procedure to remedy his condition. The first step is healing the ulcer. He’s already been given some anti-inflammatories and will be re-checked in a few days. He’ll then go to San Luis Rey Equine Hospital to use their hyperbaric chamber and possibly get some laser treatment. Once the ulcer is healed and inflammation has gone down he’ll have very minor surgery to address the entrapment. At some point he’ll likely move to TriFecta Equine Athletic Center, which is associated with SLR Equine Hospital.
                      The typical time frame for an entrapped epiglottis by itself is around two weeks out of training. Coupled with the ulcer, Visceral’s vet estimates that he’ll need more like 30 days out of training to be safe. All things considered, that’s really not a long time at all and, as we said, at least we have an obvious and very real explanation for yesterday.
                      We’ll of course closely monitor Visceral’s condition and recovery and will pass along any significant news as it comes.
                      Comment
                      • batt33
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 12-23-16
                        • 5981

                        #7886
                        Originally posted by batt33
                        [COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Straight No Chaser Workout Report[/COLOR]https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/b...1500739580.mp4
                        Straight No Chaser had his final breeze this morning over the Seaside oval receiving an official time of 1:01.60. Trainer Dan Blacker had him in :59 flat galloping out in 1:10.80. There were quite a few workers early this morning so perhaps the clockers missed him or were on the wrong horse but nonetheless, Blacker was thrilled with this final drill.
                        He breezed under Juan Landeros and traveled solo for the first half of the work before catching company in the turn and stretch. He cooled out in great order after the work and all systems are a go for next Saturday. Click here for the Bing Crosby nominations.

                        Funny how the trainer always have them going quicker!

                        [COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Straight No Chaser Follow Up
                        [/COLOR]
                        On Saturday morning, a lameness locator exam was performed on Straight No Chaser, which pinpointed his front left fetlock to be the source of concern again. His lameness is very mild when jogging on a shank, but more prominent with weight in his back. We will now need to set up a PET scan for this week to figure out exactly what is going on. Of course, this draws some initial concern as this is the general area which set him back last year. A PET scan will allow us to truly identify if it is the sesamoid region or another area of the fetlock. We will follow back up as soon as we receive the results which will likely be towards the end of next week.
                        Comment
                        • batt33
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 12-23-16
                          • 5981

                          #7887
                          [COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Seize the Grey Race Recap


                          [/COLOR]
                          Seize the Grey finished fourth of six in the Jim Dandy with a pretty good trip and no obvious excuses.
                          He broke cleanly, and was guided into a rail spot by Jaime Torres to sit fourth down on the fence as they went an average pace. He had every chance heading for home, but just never got going from there.
                          While he had been closer to the pace in his last few races, we did not mind that ride at all and don’t think showing more speed early would have resulted in a better finish. Longshot Pony Express was hard-ridden to the front, and Fierceness figured to be piloted aggressively as well (and was), so forcing the issue would’ve only gotten Seize the Grey involved in a potential speed duel.
                          Jaime had been instructed to let Seize the Grey find his own rhythm and put himself where he wanted to be, and that’s what he did. He felt what we saw—they were in a great spot nearing the lane, but just didn’t fire.
                          Ultimately, Seize the Grey was a bit flat again and once again just didn’t run back to his big effort in the Preakness. We’ll see how he comes back, huddle up with the team and share the game plan when we have it.
                          Comment
                          • batt33
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 12-23-16
                            • 5981

                            #7888
                            [COLOR=rgba(77, 76, 76, 0.9)]Caldera Starts Speed Work

                            [/COLOR]
                            https://cdnb-media.myracehorse.com/blog/video/filtered7A7E018E017E45D0B89CA8BD8FA9D186 _1722442444636/MP4/filtered7A7E018E017E45D0B89CA8BD8FA9D186 _1722442444636.mp4
                            We are pleased to share that Caldera had his first unrecorded work at Oak Ridge Training Center yesterday morning. Dave Scanlon was really pleased with what he saw, noting, “Usually horses like him that haven’t worked in a while take a little time to pick things up, but he grabbed a hold of the bit from the get go and went really nice.”
                            He’ll continue to increase the intensity in his training each week with the plan remaining to ship to the Lukas barn at Saratoga in mid-August. With the Saratoga meet ending on September 2nd, if Dave feels Caldera needs a little more time, we would then look to ship him directly to Churchill Downs once the Lukas team arrives back in Kentucky.
                            Comment
                            • JBEX
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 01-02-12
                              • 23173

                              #7889
                              Originally posted by batt33
                              Thanks STR and all. Just got back from an assignment In northern CA(gold complex). we were able to put the fires to bed! Lots of hard work by multiple agencies ... it could have gone bad real quick, It felt really good to catch it , and not lose any structures and no injuries .While I was there one of our teammates who was with us lost his house to the "park fire" My Mentor and former member of our team his daughter lost here house also.... my house was close to being in the evac zone( but in reality the winds were in my favor to not be a threat but still....).
                              glad you're OK batt and sorry about your friend's daughter and other teammate losing their homes to the fire .. terrible thing !
                              Comment
                              • str
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 01-12-09
                                • 11611

                                #7890
                                Amazing !

                                This is just about exactly what I was thinking if I play. Depends on the win price to be sure but I am all over the thought process you posted.

                                We will talk more as we get closer.

                                Thanks JBEX.
                                Comment
                                • str
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 01-12-09
                                  • 11611

                                  #7891
                                  Originally posted by batt33
                                  Thanks STR and all. Just got back from an assignment In northern CA(gold complex). we were able to put the fires to bed! Lots of hard work by multiple agencies ... it could have gone bad real quick, It felt really good to catch it , and not lose any structures and no injuries .While I was there one of our teammates who was with us lost his house to the "park fire" My Mentor and former member of our team his daughter lost here house also.... my house was close to being in the evac zone( but in reality the winds were in my favor to not be a threat but still....).
                                  Welcome back Batt !

                                  Happy to have you home and safe.

                                  Real sorry about your friends losses. That is terrible.

                                  More tomorrow and I will sift through and catch up with all the details you sent.

                                  Gonna feel good to sleep in your own bed tonight. Enjoy it!

                                  Your efforts do not go unnoticed.

                                  Thank you sir.
                                  Comment
                                  • JBEX
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 01-02-12
                                    • 23173

                                    #7892
                                    Originally posted by str
                                    Amazing !

                                    This is just about exactly what I was thinking if I play. Depends on the win price to be sure but I am all over the thought process you posted.

                                    We will talk more as we get closer.

                                    Thanks JBEX.
                                    no problem str and cool you were thinking along the same lines..also giving some thought to some triple action as a hedge (sacrificing exacta as I feel you have to take a stand ... one or the other) ..mine would be DM beating DV and only having 3 horses in 3rd and those would be 378 who were the close 2nd-4th finishers in the bel derby (same distance)

                                    3 .. william buick and c. appleby
                                    7 .. mott and other frankel
                                    8 .. chad and flavien



                                    so it would be

                                    1)$1 tri 5/4/ 378

                                    2) $9-12 straight ex 45 (want 3x min more in exacta)






                                    just so everyone's familiar


                                    DM = deterministic (#5)
                                    DV = diego velazquez (#4)



                                    .




                                    .
                                    Last edited by JBEX; 08-02-24, 02:18 AM.
                                    Comment
                                    • JBEX
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 01-02-12
                                      • 23173

                                      #7893
                                      think that'll be about a $40 triple for $1
                                      Comment
                                      • JBEX
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 01-02-12
                                        • 23173

                                        #7894
                                        Originally posted by JBEX
                                        think that'll be about a $40 triple for $1
                                        no that's too light (my estimate)..not worth isolating 3 horses for 3rd for $40..about $15 ex for $1 ($45 for 3) better off doing that ..think my triple estimate is "way" too low
                                        Last edited by JBEX; 08-02-24, 02:55 AM.
                                        Comment
                                        • JBEX
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 01-02-12
                                          • 23173

                                          #7895
                                          Originally posted by JBEX
                                          think that'll be about a $40 triple for $1
                                          Originally posted by JBEX
                                          no that's too light (my estimate)..not worth isolating 3 horses for 3rd for $40..about $15 ex for $1 ($45 for 3) better off doing that ..think my triple estimate is "way" too low
                                          just to not confuse this..the strategy is good..estimating possible triple payoffs at 4am is not good
                                          Comment
                                          • JBEX
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 01-02-12
                                            • 23173

                                            #7896
                                            think % wise based on them being bet similiar to ml you'd get about 20-30% less with the 3 and possibly 50-60 % more with the 7 and 8..obviously making a stand in 3rd should have rewards but getting away too much from the main point of hopefully hitting the 45 exacta for a larger bet ..exacta or triple either way for the hedge is good ..I'd go with triple to spice it up a bit





                                            .
                                            Comment
                                            • str
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 01-12-09
                                              • 11611

                                              #7897
                                              Originally posted by JBEX
                                              think % wise based on them being bet similiar to ml you'd get about 20-30% less with the 3 and possibly 50-60 % more with the 7 and 8..obviously making a stand in 3rd should have rewards but getting away too much from the main point of hopefully hitting the 45 exacta for a larger bet ..exacta or triple either way for the hedge is good ..I'd go with triple to spice it up a bit









                                              I’m on my phone. I screwed up the reply into the post. Whoops.
                                              I think I agree with the conclusion. Actually both conclusions. 4 AM is no good when it comes to thinking triples through. Lol. And, spicing the play up is exactly what it would be. An exacta seems to be a position while mixing in the triple seems more like pure gambling. Not knocking it at all, just thinking it’s stretching the theory out to try and stretch a double in the gap to a triple. No pun intended.Got to make sure if the exacta hits you are rewarded sufficiently even if the triple doesn’t.
                                              Hope that makes sense.

                                              I will look tomorrow morning well after 4 am .




                                              .
                                              Last edited by str; 08-02-24, 03:01 PM.
                                              Comment
                                              • JBEX
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 01-02-12
                                                • 23173

                                                #7898
                                                think the main thing for me was the time spent on explaining it as it's a secondary issue to me..and thats based on just looking to break about even with the exacta .. to take some exta risk and go for the triple vs just keep it simple with a 54 exacta as the hedge an individual decision ..hitting the 45 and being right about a good effort for DM but not up to beating the ml favorite is the main piece of business ..look forward to your take on the race str
                                                Comment
                                                • JBEX
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 01-02-12
                                                  • 23173

                                                  #7899
                                                  based on the forecast think there's a reasonable chance the turf will be "good"
                                                  tomorrow .. would be a positive for DV if it is
                                                  Comment
                                                  • str
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 01-12-09
                                                    • 11611

                                                    #7900
                                                    [QUOTE=JBEX;31329324]
                                                    Originally posted by str

                                                    ok str .. look forward to your thoughts..my "initial" impression is #4 diego velazquez (2-1) is going to be a handful..

                                                    firmer surface looks to be a benefit


                                                    distance should be perfect off his last win

                                                    ran well vs top graded euro competition


                                                    looked to be (going by head-on) within 4-5 lengths at the quarter pole 2 races back @ 1 1/2 miles..race available on you tube..purple white stripes and horse has a big white slash forehead #5 (post corresponds)


                                                    crushed g3's in Ireland @ 1 1/8 miles in his following race and comes over here in 16 days

                                                    ryan moore , aiden o'brien and horse is a $2.8M son of frankel


                                                    certainly other talented horses but to me he's the scariest by far and it's reflected in the ml


                                                    .
                                                    Originally posted by JBEX
                                                    yeah I realize he can't say that but a 2nd here to me is a win in terms of nice progress going forward..also pocket $120k which is nothing to sneeze at..with a good race but no win he's also still eligible for an n2x which he would have plenty of bottom for off this race (assuming it's 1m or 8.5f)


                                                    I think my play would be along those lines ..straight exacta DV/DM (4/5) which I'm guessing would pay low 20's for $2..wouldn't reverse it for a smaller amount although 3x (45) and 1x (54) probably about gets your money back if he wins..DV not top 2 I lose
                                                    Originally posted by JBEX
                                                    based on the forecast think there's a reasonable chance the turf will be "good"
                                                    tomorrow .. would be a positive for DV if it is
                                                    I think my first thought is, until I actually see the board, the morning line pricing is not sitting well with me. The 8 horse is 8-1? I don't get it. Also, Prat stays on and gets off of the 2 horse who ran well last out. The 8 beat the 3 and got beat a head by the 3. They are fairly close at this point. But they are 7-2 and 8-1 ML. Why?

                                                    The 7 with Mott is 12-1. I'm not buying that either. More like 8-1 IMO.

                                                    I see your 7,8 fill ins with a triple and I see why. All makes sense to me. But with the turf a question as to how firm, not knowing who will love it or not so much, I think I keep it simple and plan for a 4-5 exacta.

                                                    Some horse will be under bet in here. It could actually be Deterministic. There should be value in the win pool if you want to challenge the 4. Not sure I want to do that but by the odds being off IMO, the projected exacta prices will be as well. There will be value with the 4 on top somewhere. We won't know until about 4-5 minutes to post. So... What do I do?

                                                    For this thread, I've laid out what I will be looking for and in all probability I will play a straight 4-5 exacta and a win bet on the 5, Deterministic. Those prices of winnings will need to be bet so as to fit. I feel he has a better shot as of now to run 2nd than he does win.
                                                    So if he is bet down, the value of that win bet diminishes. Someone will be a real nice price in here. Just don't know who yet.
                                                    I think the board will need to show me the exact direction I will go but any play will be close to what I said, but adjusted to make any profit make sense vs. the risk.
                                                    Hope that makes sense.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • JBEX
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 01-02-12
                                                      • 23173

                                                      #7901
                                                      [QUOTE=str;31330250]
                                                      Originally posted by JBEX





                                                      I think my first thought is, until I actually see the board, the morning line pricing is not sitting well with me. The 8 horse is 8-1? I don't get it. Also, Prat stays on and gets off of the 2 horse who ran well last out. The 8 beat the 3 and got beat a head by the 3. They are fairly close at this point. But they are 7-2 and 8-1 ML. Why?

                                                      The 7 with Mott is 12-1. I'm not buying that either. More like 8-1 IMO.

                                                      I see your 7,8 fill ins with a triple and I see why. All makes sense to me. But with the turf a question as to how firm, not knowing who will love it or not so much, I think I keep it simple and plan for a 4-5 exacta.

                                                      Some horse will be under bet in here. It could actually be Deterministic. There should be value in the win pool if you want to challenge the 4. Not sure I want to do that but by the odds being off IMO, the projected exacta prices will be as well. There will be value with the 4 on top somewhere. We won't know until about 4-5 minutes to post. So... What do I do?

                                                      For this thread, I've laid out what I will be looking for and in all probability I will play a straight 4-5 exacta and a win bet on the 5, Deterministic. Those prices of winnings will need to be bet so as to fit. I feel he has a better shot as of now to run 2nd than he does win.
                                                      So if he is bet down, the value of that win bet diminishes. Someone will be a real nice price in here. Just don't know who yet.
                                                      I think the board will need to show me the exact direction I will go but any play will be close to what I said, but adjusted to make any profit make sense vs. the risk.
                                                      Hope that makes sense.
                                                      I guess I should say going into this that my main angle in this race was DM being able to beat the locals BUT DV was too much to ask ..anything is possible though ..maybe he won't take to a firm surface or tighter turns but have to think connections took that into consideration..bad trip in race..shipping across the ocean and racing in 16 days..things happen


                                                      as far as Pratt staying on #8 it doesn't surprise me..chad brown vs shug who he hardly ever rides for..got to stay with the former

                                                      agree with the ml odds disparity between the 3 and 8 ..seems too much .. maybe how much lower
                                                      odds were for the 3 in the last two races
                                                      ..appleby/buick vs brown/pratt a great matchup for connections


                                                      as I started this with I'm hoping DM can give the locals a run for the money and if everything works out possibly beat DV (fan perspective) although financially that's not the best outcome we both are fans of the horse ..admittedly though breaking even on him winning would hurt a little but I acknowledge that possibility going in
                                                      Comment
                                                      • str
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 01-12-09
                                                        • 11611

                                                        #7902
                                                        [QUOTE=JBEX;31330260]
                                                        Originally posted by str

                                                        I guess I should say going into this that my main angle in this race was DM being able to beat the locals BUT DV was too much to ask ..anything is possible though ..maybe he won't take to a firm surface or tighter turns but have to think connections took that into consideration..bad trip in race..shipping across the ocean and racing in 16 days..things happen


                                                        as far as Pratt staying on #8 it doesn't surprise me..chad brown vs shug who he hardly ever rides for..got to stay with the former

                                                        agree with the ml odds disparity between the 3 and 8 ..seems too much .. maybe how much lower
                                                        odds were for the 3 in the last two races
                                                        ..appleby/buick vs brown/pratt a great matchup for connections


                                                        as I started this with I'm hoping DM can give the locals a run for the money and if everything works out possibly beat DV (fan perspective) although financially that's not the best outcome we both are fans of the horse ..admittedly though breaking even on him winning would hurt a little but I acknowledge that possibility going in
                                                        Totally agree on the first highlight. Same page there. And of course, 16 days can be a thing from across the pond but it's a game of risk and that is beyond my ability to determine from here.

                                                        As for Prat staying on the 3, I get that as well. Had to be a little frustrating though. They are not that far apart in my book.

                                                        For the 3rd highlight, yeah, I can't let that happen. lolol. But if he is indeed 6-1, it will happen as I cannot settle for even that price against all of these. At that number or less, I think I would be in protect mode and playing moneywise for Deterministic to be 2nd as the score. I typically refuse to alter a bet higher because the price is lower than I expected or wanted.

                                                        Kind of stubborn that way but over time it has served me very well. Does ouch pretty good when it works against though. But it's a loooong game not just a today thing, so I take the good with the bad. It shakes out over time. Like the Kingsbarns price last out. I did not need to entertain an exacta price. That race had me on win only.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • batt33
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 12-23-16
                                                          • 5981

                                                          #7903
                                                          Saratoga weather strikes again.... I guess that is why I prefer Del mar....
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Madison
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 09-16-11
                                                            • 6428

                                                            #7904
                                                            Originally posted by batt33
                                                            Saratoga weather strikes again.... I guess that is why I prefer Del mar....
                                                            It's not that bad. Last year was worse. Is any anyone still attending DelMar?? Other than BC weekend?? My local friends say it's a ghost land?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Jellymancan
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 03-09-20
                                                              • 3689

                                                              #7905
                                                              Gary Fenton, the chair of the Thoroughbred Owners of California, urged the national racing industry to provide help – whether in the form of horses or money – to the beleaguered California circuit during a presentation on Thursday at the Jockey Club Round Table Conference on Matters Pertaining to Racing in Saratoga Springs.


                                                              Doesn't sound reassuring for how it's going on the west coast.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • batt33
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 12-23-16
                                                                • 5981

                                                                #7906
                                                                Originally posted by Madison
                                                                It's not that bad. Last year was worse. Is any anyone still attending DelMar?? Other than BC weekend?? My local friends say it's a ghost land?
                                                                I would much rather have the weather at Delmar than Saratoga.... 82 degrees and 72% humidity.... uhm no thank you.... and scratch races until next week or whenever....
                                                                Comment
                                                                • batt33
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 12-23-16
                                                                  • 5981

                                                                  #7907
                                                                  Originally posted by Jellymancan
                                                                  https://www.drf.com/news/round-table...fornia-circuit

                                                                  Doesn't sound reassuring for how it's going on the west coast.
                                                                  Yes it is sad.... but I would much rather spend my money at Delmar where the weather is great than be subject to High humidity and temps.... What's the point in watching great horses if you are miserable ....
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • batt33
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 12-23-16
                                                                    • 5981

                                                                    #7908
                                                                    82
                                                                    °F°C

                                                                    [COLOR=var(--IXoxUe)]Precipitation: 15%
                                                                    Humidity: 72%
                                                                    Wind: 6 mph
                                                                    [/COLOR]
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Jellymancan
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 03-09-20
                                                                      • 3689

                                                                      #7909
                                                                      Originally posted by batt33
                                                                      Yes it is sad.... but I would much rather spend my money at Delmar where the weather is great than be subject to High humidity and temps.... What's the point in watching great horses if you are miserable ....
                                                                      Nothing will beat Del Mar weather. Almost every single time I see the video online about 60 minutes before the races start and see the beach, mountains etc I ask myself why I live in the northeast. Anyways, Saratoga is great, but can be frustrating when you cap for hours and mother nature shows up. Personally, I haven't been as impressed with the Saratoga cards this year. In reference to actually watching the horses live (I think that's what you're alluding to), I have been to the SPA twice as one day was humid and rained some while the other one was perfect weather. The humid and rain one sucked but the perfect weather one was good. I wish I had the bigger $ to get better seats to view the finish. Del Mar is a course that looks like it would be really fun to watch the races. Hopefully, I make it out there one day. All the best, batt.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • batt33
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 12-23-16
                                                                        • 5981

                                                                        #7910
                                                                        Originally posted by Jellymancan
                                                                        Nothing will beat Del Mar weather. Almost every single time I see the video online about 60 minutes before the races start and see the beach, mountains etc I ask myself why I live in the northeast. Anyways, Saratoga is great, but can be frustrating when you cap for hours and mother nature shows up. Personally, I haven't been as impressed with the Saratoga cards this year. In reference to actually watching the horses live (I think that's what you're alluding to), I have been to the SPA twice as one day was humid and rained some while the other one was perfect weather. The humid and rain one sucked but the perfect weather one was good. I wish I had the bigger $ to get better seats to view the finish. Del Mar is a course that looks like it would be really fun to watch the races. Hopefully, I make it out there one day. All the best, batt.
                                                                        couldn't have said it better
                                                                        Comment
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