Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

hey str

we've discussed making a variant when there's only 1 other race at that approximate distance on the card..horse's exiting the wood memorial fall into that category and beyer thinks it was a much slower race than brisnet..about 12 lengths if I did the math right

only other 1 1/8 mile race on the card was the gazelle and it went in 1:50 ² while the wood went in 1:47⁴

47⁴ is really moving at 9f in general but could also be due to a glib surface..crux of the matter though is it's a bit of guesswork making a figure in these types of situations don't you agree?

[JBEX]

hey str

we've discussed making a variant when there's only 1 other race at that approximate distance on the card..horse's exiting the wood memorial fall into that category and beyer thinks it was a much slower race than brisnet..about 12 lengths if I did the math right

only other 1 1/8 mile race on the card was the gazelle and it went in 1:50 ² while the wood went in 1:47⁴

47⁴ is really moving at 9f in general but could also be due to a glib surface..crux of the matter though is it's a bit of guesswork making a figure in these types of situations don't you agree?

closer to 10 I think

[str]

hey str

we've discussed making a variant when there's only 1 other race at that approximate distance on the card..horse's exiting the wood memorial fall into that category and beyer thinks it was a much slower race than brisnet..about 12 lengths if I did the math right

only other 1 1/8 mile race on the card was the gazelle and it went in 1:50 ² while the wood went in 1:47⁴

47⁴ is really moving at 9f in general but could also be due to a glib surface..crux of the matter though is it's a bit of guesswork making a figure in these types of situations don't you agree?

The Gazelle went really slow early. That race started at the 1/2 mile pole. Yes, they picked it up late but it's not always JUST the final time, it's how they got to the 1/4 pole also. It's the entire body of work. The Wood got faster fractions by the leader who took the clock to the wire. Two different setups. Plus, boys vs. girls. I know that is factored in but is it when the only 2 races to use are male and female?

I would say to check and see what Timeform used and who they are closer to. I have to be honest, I have much more faith in Timeform to get it right, even if they need to adjust than I do Beyers.

The Wood on Beyers was great. But MoDonegal didn't back that up. And while unfair to pin it on one horse, it is a clue.
Look for the timeform number and see if they adjusted it.
If you can, let me know.

Hope that makes sense JBEX .

[JBEX]

The Gazelle went really slow early. That race started at the 1/2 mile pole. Yes, they picked it up late but it's not always JUST the final time, it's how they got to the 1/4 pole also. It's the entire body of work. The Wood got faster fractions by the leader who took the clock to the wire. Two different setups. Plus, boys vs. girls. I know that is factored in but is it when the only 2 races to use are male and female?

I would say to check and see what Timeform used and who they are closer to. I have to be honest, I have much more faith in Timeform to get it right, even if they need to adjust than I do Beyers.

The Wood on Beyers was great. But MoDonegal didn't back that up. And while unfair to pin it on one horse, it is a clue.
Look for the timeform number and see if they adjusted it.
If you can, let me know.

Hope that makes sense JBEX .

sure does str

I think when you factor it's such a small sample group of races to make par time along with pace scenarios you described it's a real guessing making a figure .. if my memory is correct on how they do this (I've never made my own) you would've needed to know the average time for that particular class (grade 1's) at 1 1/8 at Aqueduct and separated by gender..those might be the only 2 races at the meet that fit this criteria..an impossible figure making situation unless I'm wrong about how its done

agree that the timeform numbers would be a good thing for this race..splitting the difference between the beyers and brisnet would leave you right around par for the race

[JBEX]

really perplexed by how the beyer comes up so low for this race..it's about 4 lengths slower than par and they were 4 ticks away from the track record riva ridge set in 1973 (1:47)

96 beyer
103 par (about)
length @ 9f = 1.7 pts (about)



guess I'm doing something wrong but can't figure out what






.

[trendon]

Does Heritage not pay track odds? I could have sworn they did.

[str]

Does Heritage not pay track odds? I could have sworn they did.

I have not played there in years but if memory serves they did pay track odds then.

[str]

I wondering if anyone with a speed style horse will jump into the Belmont.
Plenty of closers it seems. But not a lot of pace early???
Any word on Messier ?

[Easy-Rider 66]

I wondering if anyone with a speed style horse will jump into the Belmont.
Plenty of closers it seems. But not a lot of pace early???
Any word on Messier ?

have not heard yet STR. as a rule do you favor speed in the Belmont?

[trendon]

I have not played there in years but if memory serves they did pay track odds then.

OK, so they just screwed up my Preakness tri payout. Gonna call now.

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK, so they just screwed up my Preakness tri payout. Gonna call now.

check to see if they have caps on Payouts for exotics? Good luck.

[str]

have not heard yet STR. as a rule do you favor speed in the Belmont?

Yes. I always give it a closer look.

The mindset is a deep closer which can help with the odds of a forwardly placed horse to finish.

It's all about the setup and this year it seems to look lean on the front end I think. Would need to see a form though.



Certainly not always but often enough.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Yes. I always give it a closer look.

The mindset is a deep closer which can help with the odds of a forwardly placed horse to finish.

It's all about the setup and this year it seems to look lean on the front end I think. Would need to see a form though.



Certainly not always but often enough.

OK STR: will for certain ask your opinion during BEL week if you look over the form.

[trendon]

check to see if they have caps on Payouts for exotics? Good luck.

How about this one? Tell me who you think screwed up?

Me or Heritage.

:/ lol I am just a moron.

[Easy-Rider 66]

How about this one? Tell me who you think screwed up?

Me or Heritage.

:/ lol I am just a moron.

[trendon]

I thought I put in a $20 tri ($240 total). Only did 10/120. So I was looking for ~1000. That guy thinks I'm an idiot lol

[Easy-Rider 66]

I thought I put in a $20 tri ($240 total). Only did 10/120. So I was looking for ~1000. That guy thinks I'm an idiot lol

ok thx for the update. nice score nonetheless.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: when you watch a race can you tell at some point with a certain degree of success if the Speed will hold or not.? if so, on average at what point in the race does it ? THX

[Easy-Rider 66]

and what specifically do you look for?

[EmpireMaker]

you look at the early fractions and how hard the horse in the lead is being pressed

[str]

Hey STR: when you watch a race can you tell at some point with a certain degree of success if the Speed will hold or not.? if so, on average at what point in the race does it ? THX

and what specifically do you look for?

Empire Maker is correct with what he said. A big part of it.

And yes, I will turn on TVG now and then and watch a race I have no idea about at whatever downs is running.

And I try and see when I can locate the winner. That is a lot harder than if you know a circuit and certain riders but typically by the 1/4 pole, you can tell maybe 50-60% of the time??? I guess. Something like that anyway.

Here is what I suggest if you really want to learn how to see races more clearly.

Start with watching replays when you know who won. And watch that horse from the gate. I would start with long races. You have more time to see what happens.

If it's a speed horse watch it's ears, especially going long. Ears up, is relaxed, happy, ready for it's next command.

Watch the riders hands and look at the riders toes. Toes up and heels down, they are sitting back with a long hold and a deep seat. They are asking for nothing at that point. Hopefully the mount is in relax mode if they are hands in there crouch.

As the hands go forward and the toes flatten out they are starting to ask the horse for a bit more. Probably takes place down the back side and into the far turn.
Does the horse instantly respond? If so, running well. If not, probably not going to run so well or will need work . Most times sticks used around the far turn or early in the stretch is a sign that the jock is worried. Except of course places like Charlestown where the jocks are just not at the same level for the most part.
You can't compare minor tracks to NY racing. Don't even try. I would say to stay with just a couple of tracks if you are going to to this .



Eventually you will need to learn the jocks. Except in NY where they are all pretty much really solid or great.

Once you have seen winners winning, try live racing and see if you can start to pick things up.

Let's leave it at that for now. There is plenty more but go with that much now.

Once you or anyone try's this and wants more to look for, let me know. I don't want it to be too much all at once.
If you want to post a specific race I will go through it with you.
Hope it helps.

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR THX for the run down.

[JBEX]

hey str

delaware

R3 #6 seduce (8-1)

thought you'd like to see this and there is a question in the write-up




some things i think are noteworthy





big pedigree homebred by into mischief the most expensive north american stallion

2 solid attempts as a 2yo including her debut at del and a solid 2nd in saratoga grass route
..we've both agreed before that the latter will usually be a very tough field

..looks like maybe got caught behind a slow pace in his 2yo finale..i think even a couple of lengths off the lead could have been a disadvantage

he's not good 2nd lasix but would you say with the layoff it matters less vs coming back in a few weeks ??


graham motion excellent off a long layoff and going turf to dirt.
looks like should be ready off the long works at fair hill..guessing he points for this meet being a mid atlantic based trainer with excellent stock

i think this horse conservatively will be less than half the ml..any comments are welcome





.

[str]

hey str

delaware

R3 #6 seduce (8-1)

thought you'd like to see this and there is a question in the write-up




some things i think are noteworthy





big pedigree homebred by into mischief the most expensive north american stallion

2 solid attempts as a 2yo including her debut at del and a solid 2nd in saratoga grass route
..we've both agreed before that the latter will usually be a very tough field

..looks like maybe got caught behind a slow pace in his 2yo finale..i think even a couple of lengths off the lead could have been a disadvantage

he's not good 2nd lasix but would you say with the layoff it matters less vs coming back in a few weeks ??


graham motion excellent off a long layoff and going turf to dirt.
looks like should be ready off the long works at fair hill..guessing he points for this meet being a mid atlantic based trainer with excellent stock

i think this horse conservatively will be less than half the ml..any comments are welcome





.

Q. he's not good 2nd lasix but would you say with the layoff it matters less vs coming back in a few weeks ??

A. Yes. This is totally different from staying on schedule and running back in 3 weeks or so. That should not apply here.


Q. looks like should be ready off the long works at fair hill..guessing he points for this meet being a mid atlantic based trainer with excellent stock


A. Well, he points plenty of his horses for turf and with Delaware Park being so close to Fair Hill, it is a very logical place for him to run a horse like her. Add to that , she fits that competition level on form currently. She won't be at her absolute best today but that's the point of him running her in this spot. Probably doesn't have to be to compete well against most if not all of these.

As for the price, I am thinking at least half, so 4-1 and probably less then that. Not sure 2-1 would surprise me here unless Grahams other horse gets bet off the board.

Seems like a race where most of the others have a question mark within their form if you try and make a case for them. They could run well or terrible so it seems. And some are just too tough to bet on at all IMO. I guess that is what helps shrink this horses price in my eyes.

GL if you play JBEX.

[JBEX]

Q. he's not good 2nd lasix but would you say with the layoff it matters less vs coming back in a few weeks ??

A. Yes. This is totally different from staying on schedule and running back in 3 weeks or so. That should not apply here.


Q. looks like should be ready off the long works at fair hill..guessing he points for this meet being a mid atlantic based trainer with excellent stock


A. Well, he points plenty of his horses for turf and with Delaware Park being so close to Fair Hill, it is a very logical place for him to run a horse like her. Add to that , she fits that competition level on form currently. She won't be at her absolute best today but that's the point of him running her in this spot. Probably doesn't have to be to compete well against most if not all of these.

As for the price, I am thinking at least half, so 4-1 and probably less then that. Not sure 2-1 would surprise me here unless Grahams other horse gets bet off the board.

Seems like a race where most of the others have a question mark within their form if you try and make a case for them. They could run well or terrible so it seems. And some are just too tough to bet on at all IMO. I guess that is what helps shrink this horses price in my eyes.

GL if you play JBEX.

I like what you said about fitting the competition level on form as delaware a much easier assignment than a major circuit .. she wouldn't have to be at her best to do well here and it does look like a field that lacks depth

think 2 and 3 are her biggest competition but matz's (2) numbers are real bad especially with shippers..off her last race at gulfstream no question she's a contender..always have to worry about johnathan thomas and that one's bred to run all day and sire above avg with turf starters..got some useful experience at kee..less worried about the other graham because his #'s are horrible firsters and first time turf..plus the outside post for a beginner..will say though pedigree is excellent and by fair hill works looks very sharp


a nice betting race for sure..thanks for the feedback str



.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I wondering if anyone with a speed style horse will jump into the Belmont.
Plenty of closers it seems. But not a lot of pace early???
Any word on Messier ?

Both of Yakteen’s Kentucky Derby starters are in light training at Santa Anita before gearing up for summer campaigns, which could include return trips east for some of the big-money 3-year-old races, such as the Travers (G1) and Haskell (G1).
“They’re back and they’ve been training. We’ve just lightened up on them a bit before getting ready for some of the summer classics,” Yakteen said.
Messier faded to 15th in the Kentucky Derby after racing close to a hot pace. Taiba, the Santa Anita Derby winner who ran for the roses with only two starts under his belt, finished three spots better in 12th under the twin spires.
“They both are doing great and in excellent shape,” Yakteen added.
Messier, whom Yakteen previously said could target shorter races moving forward, sports a record of 7: 3-3-0 and earnings of $435,600. He was second in the Santa Anita Derby in his first start for Yakteen after being transferred from the suspended Baffert.
Taiba won his debut at Santa Anita on March 5 prior to the Santa Anita Derby. He was a $1.7 million auction purchase by Zedan Racing.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: above is an update on Taiba and Messier. It does not look either will run in the Belmont at this time.

[JBEX]

hey str

do you think it's possible that they feel messier could get the belmont distance but he ran the type of race in the derby that's not conducive to going further next out..In other words if he ran a mid pack early and finished top 6 there might be conditioning going forward that would be useful whereas what he did might have zapped him

[str]

Hey STR: above is an update on Taiba and Messier. It does not look either will run in the Belmont at this time.

Taiba makes all the sense in the world. Messier, maybe there as well but his breeding does suggest he can run all day long.

So, two things come to mind.

1. He could have some breathing limitations that they feel can hinder him at 1 1/4 or more ( but that seems like a stretch because breathing problems typically limit a horse to about a mile or less and very often under a mile).

2. They feel that risking a race at a distance like 1 1/2 in June will require him to sit out until Sept. or so and therefore give up several opportunities that he can only have as a 3 year old this summer. And the reward of winning the Belmont at such a long distance does not in their mind out way winning something like the Haskell, Ohio Derby, W,V. Derby ,etc.

Interesting take and one worth watching. I'm glad JBEX talked about him before the Derby.

Let's see where he lands next out.

Thanks EZ.

[JBEX]

Taiba makes all the sense in the world. Messier, maybe there as well but his breeding does suggest he can run all day long.

So, two things come to mind.

1. He could have some breathing limitations that they feel can hinder him at 1 1/4 or more ( but that seems like a stretch because breathing problems typically limit a horse to about a mile or less and very often under a mile).

2. They feel that risking a race at a distance like 1 1/2 in June will require him to sit out until Sept. or so and therefore give up several opportunities that he can only have as a 3 year old this summer. And the reward of winning the Belmont at such a long distance does not in their mind out way winning something like the Haskell, Ohio Derby, W,V. Derby ,etc.

Interesting take and one worth watching. I'm glad JBEX talked about him before the Derby.

Let's see where he lands next out.

Thanks EZ.

I think this makes a lot of sense and they might be tipping their hat that they really like this horse..if he were mediocre to a little above avg (from their perspective) maybe they say "what the heck" let's try the belmont..he did hang in well for 9f in the derby in spite of the pace..not that it's a final decision but I can definitely see waiting for the big mid-summer races

[JBEX]

also with his pedigree,what he cost and his record coming into the derby he's a certain stallion at some level and doing well in these upcoming races might be just as important for establishing his value vs the winner's share alone

[str]

I think this makes a lot of sense and they might be tipping their hat that they really like this horse..if he were mediocre to a little above avg (from their perspective) maybe they say "what the heck" let's try the belmont..he did hang in well for 9f in the derby in spite of the pace..not that it's a final decision but I can definitely see waiting for the big mid-summer races

also with his pedigree,what he cost and his record coming into the derby he's a certain stallion at some level and doing well in these upcoming races might be just as important for establishing his value vs the winner's share alone

I totally agree.

Be interesting to see where he runs. Gotta think they keep him and Taiba apart as much as possible as well.

Taiba tipped his hand so he might be the premier race runner and Messier maybe a softer spot to get him back on track.

Fun to watch play out.

[JBEX]

I totally agree.

Be interesting to see where he runs. Gotta think they keep him and Taiba apart as much as possible as well.

Taiba tipped his hand so he might be the premier race runner and Messier maybe a softer spot to get him back on track.

Fun to watch play out.

I'll guess that if things go well taiba will be pointed for the long branch stakes (believe that's what it's called) which is a haskell prep and messier goes to saratoga for the jim dandy..gotta think they'd like to win with messier in ny for obvious reasons..if they both run well maybe they meet up in the travers

[Madison]

Hey STR,

Have 2 stabled starting to today. If you have time check them out and LMK. In my thread.

Best

[str]

Hey STR,

Have 2 stabled starting to today. If you have time check them out and LMK. In my thread.

Best

Q. BEL R9 #9 Derrynane, Has run most 5 and 5.5F. I believe first stretch to 7F. Coming fast late last. Looked to me that extra distance could help. Not to sure on the value here though.




A. This horse is certainly a nice one. Comes flying in those short races. Chad's horse is a monster so if you can beat him, you deserve all the payout you can get.

It will be interesting to see if this horse can sustain the same type of late run going from 5/8ths or 5 1/2 out to 7/8ths. That is more of a stretch out for a pure 5/8ths type horse than most would think. If he can, that is a real positive. More often than not though, they tend to run a little flatter as they close . Just not with the same push you might be used to.

Amazingly, some 5/8ths horses that close like that do not run as well going 5 1/2F. That seems crazy doesn't it? But some horses just can't.

But to be fair, he has never tried it before so I totally get trying him there. Has the right rider for the task as well with Rosario. He's is sooo good closing as we all know.

I'm not trying to talk you off him as he is rock solid. Just want to make you aware that sometimes the difference between those two distance's is much more than someone might think.
So an interesting race for sure.

Good luck if you play.

All the best Madison and glad to have you check in !