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i think the speed ratings are good if you look at last 3 or 4 and kind of look at what the horse faced. Need to look at the type of race and see how the specific horse does in it and how the jockey and trainers do in it. The horse is first though and jockey and trainer can maybe pull that result in diff directions as a boost or drag. i like to check history and create some rules. then apply them in future. i like lots of ranks and then make decisions on things. Some races are all about pedigree and not speed as much. So you need to know the race.Comment -
Also, some workout stats are like 1/1 so that is useless. if 1/21 then that works, but what do i do with 1/1? only horse out there.
And some workouts arent that recent so i guess those are less useful.Comment -
hahahaaaComment -
One thing i was wondering.. is why dont they put the WPS% for the Jockey at the meet (first row of stats for jockey above the 2011 stats). They only give the strike rate for that one. Odd. i have to calc the WPS% myself. ugh I actually asked Brisnet ab that. Took a few emails to convince them , but they finally understood it. Then they told me the programmers said there isnt enough space. Well, that is the most white space on the form! (to the right of that) SMH the yr is 2017 and they cant add 3 more characters? lolComment -
For each leg of the Triple Crown, what would you list as the top 3 most important factors for a horse to win?
Here is my take... and i am just getting started with horse race betting..
1. KY Derby- lots of luck here , but i would say Speed figures in last 3 races may help and speeds at the distance and then closing ability i guess. i am not really sure about this one. Seems to be luck involved and positioning.
2. Preakness - not sure really. Need to examine this more.
3. Belmont - Pedigree first -good at the 1.5mile distance, then overall rating of horse (ability), and jockey/trainer at distance/conditions. Also, rest is important.Comment -
Never raced or followed Oaklawn so I would watch the earlier races and make sure the track is not playing a certain way.
Outside of that, pace will have a big hand in speed carrying or not.
See how many will challenge early. That will set the race up or take it away from most if not all of the closers.
Gun Runner is the best horse on paper I assume .Comment -
Hey STR, hope you're doing well. Im getting back into the sport after a year of having to watch my finances for a house repair. Now that Im getting back into, Im getting back into the feel of replay watching and was hoping for some insight. (You helped me out huge with the clean eye thing for speed horses)
-Speed horses like comfort when leading. How bad is it to run a fast pace with no pressure, vs smething like an average pace with 1-2 horses pressuring. Is it more the surrounding horses that causes discomfort? A combination?
-Trying to teach myself again on how to watch the races of midpack pressers and closers. I know both types like to see certain pace situations happen. In situations where they dont get the pace, do you still think these horses should show some sort of move or advance even if the front speeds have a lot of gas left?Comment -
Q. Speed horses like comfort when leading. How bad is it to run a fast pace with no pressure, vs smething like an average pace with 1-2 horses pressuring. Is it more the surrounding horses that causes discomfort? A combination?
A. Yes, it is the pressure from others that creates the angst. I would take a faster pace alone instead of a slower pace eye to eye going short.
Going long, the pressure, if all horses are very much under wraps and relaxed is not terrible but the inside horse will take the worst of it and ultimately the inside rider will ask for more first, knowing that if they clear him, he is dead 99% of the time.
You also have to know the track where the pace is being run. This will help you understand the "run up" which is the amount of feet prior to the horses hitting the timer in front of the gate. That will allow you to compare Monmouth Park at 6F going 22 3/5ths the first quarter and Pimlico going 23 flat the first quarter. The Pimlico slower time for the first quarter is actually about 2-3 lengths the faster time when the run up is understood. This is key when comparing out of state horses to each other and comparing Pimlico to Laurel. Laurel will show a faster 1st quarter than Pimlico does with the same horse running the same race do to the run up difference, if all things are equal.
Q. Trying to teach myself again on how to watch the races of midpack pressers and closers.
A. Try watching the riders hands and see how relaxed they are. Doing this over a month or so will allow your eye to start to see which horses are relaxed and which ones are not while running mid pack. (The same goes for speed horses but it is easier to see what I am talking about with mid pack horses to start with.).
In watching the triple crown this year, I told my buddies I was with that Always Dreaming could not lose at the 3/4 pole ( just as they turn down the backside) in the Derby. Two weeks later I told them he was toast at the 3/4 pole at Pimlico. It was all because of how relaxed and in sync with his stride he was in the Derby and how pressured I could see he felt in the Preakness. You could see it in his eyes also. Maybe try just watching him in both those replays for starters. And of course, his right eye was a big factor in those two races wasn't it?
Also try this. Turn on any horse racing channel that shows several tracks live at a time. No bets. And ok, you can cheat and look at the odds next to the horses number early at the bottom of the screen if you must.
Try and pick the winner before the final turn, so at a mile track , before the green and white colored 3/8ths pole. It won't be easy but try.
This will allow you to study how relaxed or not the horses are. Look at the trips. 3 across the track down the backside, then one alone and 3 more across 2 lengths behind the 4th horse? I will take the horse laying 4th almost every time.
It's not always that easy but do try this for at least a month when you have 20 or 30 minutes to do it. Watch the jocks, and the trips, watch the reigns and the riders hand position and reigns tight or loose early. Tight reigns might mean the horse is in the bit and not as relaxed as it could be. Loose reigns means the horse and rider are just moving along and both are probably relaxed and very calm.
You will be amazed at what you learn.
Also watch that first quarter time. But watch the amount of run up from the gate as they leave it. The timer should be at the pole they run past somewhere between zero and 30 feet. Red and white is 1/4 mile measurements, green and white 1/8th mile measurements and black and white are 1/16th mile measurements. So a 6 furlong race will start right before a red and white pole. 7/8ths, a green and white pole , etc.
It will take a while to see things I learned to see but I did it for decades. And it took A LONG TIME to be able to do that. Give it a month of work and you will be far better at it than you are now. Then another month. Your down time betting would have been a perfect time to do this but that's OK, just do it anytime you have a few minutes to watch a race . No form or program needed.
Again, no bets. Just watch as many races as you can.
Q. I know both types like to see certain pace situations happen. In situations where they dont get the pace, do you still think these horses should show some sort of move or advance even if the front speeds have a lot of gas left?
A. Somebody needs to put pressure on the lone speed prior to the last 1/8th mile 99% of the time, especially going 2 or more turns, so some rider will need to commit to that. But, some horses loaf or hang so those types maybe not move early. It all depends on the set up I guess.
It was unacceptable to me as a trainer to have a jock NOT challenge lone speed earlier than what we would want if one horse was loose on the lead and setting slow fractions ( especially long), if my horse could. The alternative was to settle for 2nd money so we would talk about that if it looked like that might be the case. I would always cover that either well prior to the race or just before the leg up if necessary. If it was a freak thing, my riders knew what I wanted done. It was on me if it cost us, not them.Last edited by str; 06-27-17, 03:45 PM.Comment -
Favorites: win %
Mountaineer 47
Delaware 43
Finger Lakes 43
Charles Town 42
Lone Star 42
Monmouth 42
Belmont 41
Indiana 40
Hey STR: These are the current meet long figures for each track. Any opinions on why Favs are hitting a such a high rate? Maybe short fields is one reason. Someone said the races are being written with the trainers in mind and not the bettors. Thx in advance.Comment -
Hi EZ.Favorites: win %
Mountaineer 47
Delaware 43
Finger Lakes 43
Charles Town 42
Lone Star 42
Monmouth 42
Belmont 41
Indiana 40
Hey STR: These are the current meet long figures for each track. Any opinions on why Favs are hitting a such a high rate? Maybe short fields is one reason. Someone said the races are being written with the trainers in mind and not the bettors. Thx in advance.
I think that if we broke down these wins into the categories and field size for each win it would tell the whole story.
Without that, people can opine and lump all of this into whatever they choose.
So, with that, here is my opinion.
With the purses inflating the way they have, in claiming races especially, most trainers with 20 horses or more, who actively claim, are fine with running a horse for less than they might be worth.
The purse money more than makes up for the lost amount in a claiming category. It also gives them a win. AND, they simply claim the horse back next time if they want to, probably for the same amount or even less, because the next trainer will probably do the same thing. Combine that with smaller field size, which is getting worse every year, and you seem to have a 3-5 shot in just about all races of 6 horses or less in most claiming races, including Maidens.
Also, a lot of tracks allow horses to run back within 30 days of a claim for the same amount or less if the trainer wants to. That allows for a lot of heavy favorites in those types of races. That never happened when I trained.
My guess is that about 40% - 50% of all 3-5 shots or less win at the % rate shown in the post. So no surprise there.
Now we add the trainer that seems to jam darn near everything down other trainers throats , and I did my share of that way back when, and of course all those things add up to a high favorite strike rate.
What needs to be shown is % of favorites winning at 2-1 or greater. I would venture to guess that it is exactly the same 25-28% rate we saw for years.
Add to this, the fact that a lot of tracks seem to have one trainer who drops horses down , wins, and if claimed most seem to immediately lose their form which keeps a lot of claims away thus allowing that trainer to continue to ram those horses down everybody's throat at 3-5 or less. After a while, that is not great horsemanship while everybody else is stupid. There is a very high probability that the trainer is doing something illegal. Now don't get me wrong, I won a % title at Laurel one year with a 42% win rate for the meet. Anybody that would have accused me of cheating would have been dead wrong. I was smokin hot, had lots of horses with lots of conditions for a 3 month period and everything just fell into place.
But when this pattern keeps up for 6 months or more, unless the trainer is simply dropping ever horse they acquire, ( no trick to that), something isn't right.
Again, all the daily drug stuff just was not available to abuse way back in the day. I stress daily because sure there were plenty of drugs around but all were being tested for. In today's world, try as they might, the testing chemists struggle to stay up to speed with the cheaters although they are doing MUCH better than they did in the 90's.
Testing lab budgets are another problem. Without the money, the lab cuts corners. That allows cheaters to prosper. You don't see this at Saratoga or big name meets but I just saw that Penn Nat. would combine urine samples and test 2 at a time to save money and only go back if a positive was found for closer scrutiny. That is outrageous. Shame on Pennsylvania for allowing that to happen. I always hated Pennsylvania racing. There is just another reason to do so.
I saw the comment about writing races for horsemen. Let me first say, that I have the upmost respect for Craig. He is GREAT for the game, and GREAT at what he does. He is also a Md. guy growing up so he knows me well. I very much respect his opinion. That said, he is right when it comes to certain races, but I will say, that writing races for a certain horse has been going on forever. The vast majority of races we are talking about are plain old claiming races , maiden races, nw of a,2,3 other than or a date like 6 months or a year, and they run those every 10-14 days year round, and have forever. Those races cannot be written and put in the book for a certain trainer. They ARE the guts of the book and the bulk of every card. So I think what is getting lost in this is what I spoke to above, which is the super trainer running a solid 10k maiden for 5k because the purse to the winner is 6k. If it was 3k gross ( 2400 net) to the winner, like it was back before the slots deals, you would not see this nearly as often.
Typically, races that are written for a trainer with a specific horse in mind are races that are non winners since a date or non winners of an amount of money or distance since whenever. Those are written typically for a Stakes or allowance horse that is coming off a layoff or needs a step down to a lesser allowance race for a confidence boost.
For instance, a non winner of an allowance race since March 25th or something like that. Seems innocent enough but Arrogate is eligible.
So that's my opinion. I hope it makes sense to you.Comment -
Thx for detailed response. Interesting read.Comment -
hey str...hypothetical. .you win a contest at tvg that let's you pick 10 races over the course of the monmouth meet..
you get to put a 1000 win place on these races and get a 50% bonus for non favorites..but you have to pick the type of races you want to bet in advance and must be at least
8 horse fields..using mth vs nyra because the former has 2 turn routes
dirt sprint..
dirt route..
turf sprint (probably not enough to choose from)
turf route
which would you choose ?Comment -
Hey STR: Have a question about racing frequency and wheeling a horse back on short rest. Any thoughts on what the optimal time between races is? I usually avoid horses running back quickly since last start but have seen plenty win. In your day of training what was your ideal spacing? Thx.Comment -
One follow up. Did you ever Wheel a horse back in 7-10 days or less?Comment -
Oh how the game has changed.
Q. Have a question about racing frequency and wheeling a horse back on short rest. Any thoughts on what the optimal time between races is? I usually avoid horses running back quickly since last start but have seen plenty win.
A. I would recommend NOT avoiding horses that run back quickly. Everything points to a solid effort when they come back earlier than typical . Either the last race had an event that took any chance away from the horse being able to run it's race or the horse came back better than ever and is screaming to run the day after it's last race so the trainer wheels the horse back in quickly. It is never a negative to play a horse coming back quickly. The time to possibly avoid or certainly take spacing into consideration is the race AFTER they have come back quickly. THAT is when you might see a duller than normal effort. Certainly not always but I see that plenty of times. When you think about it, it makes perfect sense. History backs that up as well.
Q. In your day of training what was your ideal spacing?
A. Ideal spacing for about 65% of horses was 10-14 days .
25-30% needed 14-21 days.
Only a very small fraction needed 4-6 weeks off between races.Comment -
Thx STR. Looks like times have changed quite a bit in the horse game when it comes to rest. Makes sense that the race after the quick turnaround might be the one to avoid. Never thought of that. Have a safe 4th.Comment -
All the time.
That is the way it was.
They used to run a starter series at Bowie twice a year for starters of claiming 5k or less in the last year. The distances were
1 1/16th , 1 1/8th, 1 3/16s and 1 1/4 miles. They were every Saturday for 4 straight Saturdays. So every 7 days. If I won the first one I would generally run back the next Saturday. I would like to skip the 1 3/16ths race and "rest up" with a massive 14 day break for the mile and a quarter race. The racing secretary would get mad as hell when I did that. THAT is how he and most everyone thought back in the late 70's and early 80's.
I claimed a horse from Delp once and Delaware Park for 8,500 and immediately after the race was paged to the racing secretaries office. The racing secretary said he had six horses in an 11,500 claimer either 2 or 3 days from then and would draw the race with 7 if I entered the horse I just claimed 5 minutes ago. Back then you had to raise a claimer you had just claimed up 25% of the claim price for 30 days. I told him I will but if the horse is not OK, I would scratch for the horses well being. That was the deal. Well, the horse ate up fine and acted great in the next day or 2, ( can't remember if it was 2 or 3 days), so I ran him and he won easily. I NEVER would have done that if the racing secretary hadn't pressured me to do so. I chalked that win up to Mr. Abbundi. That is when Delp chased me into the racing office and went ballistic because I was claiming quite a bit off of him.
Way back in Post 10 , here is a partial quote . What I just talked about was what I was referring to in this paragraph.
The claiming game was my strength . It is very hard but I loved it. Leatherbury , Dutrow, and Tammaro were masters at it in Maryland when I was learning and when I competed against them. Not so much Bud Delp. Don't get me wrong , he was a brilliant horseman and the job he did with Spectacular Bid was tremendous but when I started out , he was predictable with his placement of claimers and I had plenty of success cherry picking him in the claim box. He let me know about it too.Those 4 guys were as good as claiming trainers get!Comment -
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Post # 56:
Please read # 5 comment in this thread for some clarity as to why I think it is best to NOT pay much attention to them as a handicapper. I actually think that a lot of people DO pay attention to them but I also think that it can be quite misleading to most players. Workouts are very important in getting a horse ready between races. But it is impossible to understand them if you are trying to formulate an opinion based on them. There are simply to many unknown factors involving workouts that you as a handicapper have no way of knowing. As a result , I think it best to dis guard them instead of misinterpret them. Case in point:
I sent a horse to Rockingham for a stakes race from Del. Park one summer. Her name was Tor's Baby. She was a consummate overachiever her entire career. She was not any kind of work horse at all. She would barely get out of a 2 minute lick( a 2 minute mile, thus 1/4s in .15). I sent her up a week before the race. I worked her at the Rock about 3 days before the race. She went 3/8s in .42 . Racing had just implemented the rule about a published work needed if a horse was off 30+ days. The clocker asked me when I was going to work her for the race and I told him "I just did." He was not good with that but reluctantly put the work in to the system so the public could see it. She then ran the race and went 22.1/ 45.3/ 1:10 3/5 and got beat a head finishing second vying for the lead the entire race. No one could have used that work for anything positive while handicapping but indeed it was pretty good for her.
As times have changed, identifying horses that workout has become stricter at some tracks but many lesser tracks have no system in place and as a result it is a mess. I could go on and on but unless you are sorting out the Derby or B.Cup race or something like that, trying to understand workouts is very confusing.
One type of work that I might suggest looking at is if a horse goes with a "Blinkers On" change. If so, the horse must have worked from the gate with blinkers on prior to getting a gate card and allowing the change of equipment to take place. If you see a horse that has a faster than normal resent gate work and is adding blinkers , that would be something to consider for sure.
If that does not fully explain about workouts I can try to answer any other questions on the subject.Comment -
Guess we both had the same idea to bump the post. Thx again.Comment -
STR: Question on bits. Did some research and discovered there are quite a few different types like snaffle and curb bits. In your experience what kind of bit is most popular with race horses? I did a search on bits in the thread but could not find anything. Thx in advance.Last edited by Easy-Rider 66; 07-13-17, 02:35 AM.Comment -
hey str.. another one of my crazy hypotheticals.. extremely wealthy guy offers you a big amount of money to give him horses for one year on the NY circuit.. he's going to play a $1 million bankroll and understands there's no guarantee.. just wants you to try your best and what happens happens.. if you turn a nice profit you get 10% of his profit on top of what he's paying you..if you could devote a lot of your time for 1 year into doing this(assuming average luck) applying your horsemen skills to handicapping do you feel you have an edge over time.. would you enjoy that kind of challenge?
don't be humble.. I want a genuine answer lol..Comment -
The D bit is the most common bit that most people start with. You will see a D shape outside the mouth.
If the horse has a very sensitive mouth a rubber D bit. coated with rubber for more comfort.
If the horse is head strong and pulls a lot or is " tough to gallop". a Ring bit is used. You will see a ring running under the horses lower jaw
Some horses require a prong bit. That is a straight unbroken in the middle, bit with small prongs on each side on the outside.
You also see these wrapped in leather, again, for a little more comfort.
I used a Moyers bit. Leroy Moyers brought it around and it was GREAT for horses that lugged in or out. Small prongs on the outside of both sides of the jaw but if the horse leaned into them, they would really deter the horse from further leaning.
A slide bit kind of did the same thing but it slide inside a cylinder side to side wherever the horse was drifting. Pretty effective.
There are plenty more but these above are worn by the vast majority of horses in races.
Probably D bits and ring bits are the most popular bits used.
Google those bit names and you will see them up close.
Let me know if you want anymore info on any particular bit .
I can go into more detail if necessary.
The horse in your avatar, John Henry is wearing a D bit.Comment
