Horse Racing questions and answers

[JBEX]

week 4 .. 7/21 -7/27
opening day sar to last day dmr (mid sept)
army mule progeny at ...

saratoga/del mar/monmouth/ellis/colonial
(del mar and colonial haven't begun yet)

monday and tuesday will look at all tracks ..weds to sunday the 5 above

everything for this week will be in this post
will be a notification when I post


7/21 monday ****

louisiana 3 @ 6:01
#7 battleoftheravine (8-1)
like this one

going in i thought he had a shot to get the lead and ,imo, when he didn't that was that .. feel he was an overlay in spite of where he finished

last @ 18-1

___________


7/22 tuesday ****

parx 8 @ 3:53
#2 mission first (9-2)

2nd @ 8-1 .. 3-5 won $13 ex (2)

louisiana 2 @ 5:33
#3 be here now (4-5)

WON $2.40 ... easy

______________

7/23 weds ****

sar 7 @ 4:40
#6 pam pam (8-1)

str..rick dutrow won with her 1st off the claim last start


out @ 14-1

________

7/24 thursday ****

colonial 5 @ 12:59
#2 master mule (5-1)

out @ 7-2


_______


7/25 friday ****

nothing

_________

7/26 saturday ****

saratoga 2 @ 1:07
#4 soldier n diplomat (8-5)
2 yo debut.. $950k auction purchase ..amazing for a $7.5k fee (in 2022)

WON $3.90


colonial 3 @ 1:30
#7 my stubborn lassie (5-2)
2yo debut

3rd @ 2-1





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[str]

week 4 .. 7/21 -7/27
opening day sar to last day dmr (mid sept)
army mule progeny at ...

saratoga/del mar/monmouth/ellis/colonial
(del mar and colonial haven't begun yet)

monday and tuesday will look at all tracks ..weds to sunday the 5 above

everything for this week will be in this post
will be a notification when I post


7/21 monday ****

louisiana 3 @ 6:01
#7 battleoftheravine (8-1)
like this one

Last week almost felt like the Army Mules were just OK. Then you look again and about half of them were either 1st or 2nd. That's nuts !
In the long run, are there others out there that are that consistent? Can't be many.

[JBEX]

Last week almost felt like the Army Mules were just OK. Then you look again and about half of them were either 1st or 2nd. That's nuts !
In the long run, are there others out there that are that consistent? Can't be many.

they are extremely consistent with good efforts..looking at there pp's for over 3 years now and without being biased (which i could be accused of with the time investment) i am really amazed with what he's produced for a very low stud fee ..it's been more the last 3 years but the current runners including the 2 year olds fee was $10k or less

[JBEX]

put up monday's result and tuesday's entries ..11026

[str]

I posted this in Snowballs thread in Players Talk about betting at the track. I have talked about this a lot but anyone that has not looked into this, please word search this thread and get up to speed.

I promise you will be real glad you did.


Snowball,
As for Mountaineer, there is a bias that can exist there on the inside. It severely favors certain horses at certain times. If you are familiar with that, then you know what to look for. If not, I highly encourage you to go to my thread in horse racing and key word search bias, grading, inside, etc. This is information that 98% of fans do not understand or can spot. Simply put, it is an unfair advantage for those few that truly understand it, when it does exist. If it does not exist, that is fine as well, but you need to know when betting.
Not only do you gain insight from which horse HAD a great rail to run well on, even better, you gain information on why a horse did NOT run well, especially when expected to by the bettors.
Priceless info Snowball. Hope you read about it and feel free to ask a question in my thread about it as well, if necessary. Good Luck at the Mountain.

[JBEX]

updated results and weds up ... 11026

[str]

7/23 weds ****

sar 7 @ 4:40
#6 pam pam (8-1)

str..rick dutrow won with her 1st off the claim last start…



Me: So this is the kind of horse that Ricky can get to run very well every time she runs. Any of the Dutrow boys could get a horse like her to fire hard every time she runs. I almost mentioned that before in general. Now that Ricky has one, let’s see.

[JBEX]

7/23 weds ****

sar 7 @ 4:40
#6 pam pam (8-1)

str..rick dutrow won with her 1st off the claim last start…



Me: So this is the kind of horse that Ricky can get to run very well every time she runs. Any of the Dutrow boys could get a horse like her to fire hard every time she runs. I almost mentioned that before in general. Now that Ricky has one, let’s see.

a tough but logical spot off her win last out .. look forward to seeing her give it a go

[JBEX]

a tough but logical spot off her win last out .. look forward to seeing her give it a go

beautiful day forecasted there tomorrow

[str]

beautiful day forecasted there tomorrow

She is indeed stepping up and it is logical and the next step . Unfortunately it’s Saratoga where every race is going to be tougher than normal.
I know that everyone wants a winner but in this case, while winning is the objective, it’s important for Ricky to measure the overall performance and see if it in indeed a continuation of assenting her overall ability or not.
Better than 50-50 she will achieve that between Ricky training her and Army Mule flowing through her veins.
It’s so fun to watch this stuff. The story behind the story.

[JBEX]

She is indeed stepping up and it is logical and the next step . Unfortunately it’s Saratoga where every race is going to be tougher than normal.
I know that everyone wants a winner but in this case, while winning is the objective, it’s important for Ricky to measure the overall performance and see if it in indeed a continuation of assenting her overall ability or not.
Better than 50-50 she will achieve that between Ricky training her and Army Mule flowing through her veins.
It’s so fun to watch this stuff. The story behind the story.

was thinking the same thing..already got a nice chunk of it back with the win 1st off the claim .. even a 2nd or 3rd vs these is a nice accomplishment
and possibly a win 2-3 races down the road makes it a nice pickup.. I have upgraded my opinion looking at it more closely from the pp side and not factoring the trainer and sire

[str]

was thinking the same thing..already got a nice chunk of it back with the win 1st off the claim .. even a 2nd or 3rd vs these is a nice accomplishment
and possibly a win 2-3 races down the road makes it a nice pickup.. I have upgraded my opinion looking at it more closely from the pp side and not factoring the trainer and sire

Remember the conversation I have had where I said " It's easier to win 3 in a row sometimes than it is two in a row" ? Sounds insane but this is the kind of situation I was talking about.
Ricky pushed a button with her, for lack of a better explanation. She is happy, she showed it in her last race. Now, today happens. It is indeed a step up. Maybe a step and a half because of it being Saratoga. If she wins today, it will most likely made her better still. Not by a lot but mentally, no question about it. So a cool race to watch and just watch her. Her eyes, her response to commands, when she hooks up with one of those real solid horses at the 3/16ths pole or later. Those little things. THAT is what a horseman is looking for. Sure, the overall effort. But those little things that are different from before he got her.
Now I'm excited to watch the race. Will try and carve my day out to see it live.

Man, horses like that can rekindle and old fire in a hurry JBEX.
Especially Filly's and Mares. Always seemed to click with them more so than the boys.

Thanks

[str]

Without knowing anything at all about the horse, just seeing the race, I would guess he runs here back for 25k at Saratoga in about 2-3 weeks. Assuming she comes out well.
Didn’t like her getting out into the lane so I Assume she needs the relief in class to help offset what I saw. While that might have had an excuse attached to it, my guess is is something she is used to dealing with.
Again, total guess but that’s what I saw in that minute of running. Pleaselet me know if you see her entered. Thanks.

[JBEX]

Without knowing anything at all about the horse, just seeing the race, I would guess he runs here back for 25k at Saratoga in about 2-3 weeks. Assuming she comes out well.
Didn’t like her getting out into the lane so I Assume she needs the relief in class to help offset what I saw. While that might have had an excuse attached to it, my guess is is something she is used to dealing with.
Again, total guess but that’s what I saw in that minute of running. Pleaselet me know if you see her entered. Thanks.

will do str..put up the lone one going tomorrow..11026

[str]

I just read about Parx racing and the bad blood between horsemen . The horseman’s board are ready to openly fight at meetings.
Sounds like there is certainly bad blood, possible corruption and bribery involved.
What a train wreck. It seems like they need to shut down, wipe out everything and start over. Accusations of corruption everywhere from those within.
Fans can fix this. As I’ve said before, fans can fix everything.
Wager elsewhere. Make them blow it up and start fresh. Every new broom sweeps clean as they say.

[Easy-Rider 66]

I just read about Parx racing and the bad blood between horsemen . The horseman’s board are ready to openly fight at meetings.
Sounds like there is certainly bad blood, possible corruption and bribery involved.
What a train wreck. It seems like they need to shut down, wipe out everything and start over. Accusations of corruption everywhere from those within.
Fans can fix this. As I’ve said before, fans can fix everything.
Wager elsewhere. Make them blow it up and start fresh. Every new broom sweeps clean as they say.

yeah PARX a funny track. I usually don't do well there and I came to believe strange things are going on. THX for the info STR.

[str]

yeah PARX a funny track. I usually don't do well there and I came to believe strange things are going on. THX for the info STR.

From the sounds of things and a couple of people I know from back in the day up there, your handicapping might have been better than some of the results EZ.
This needs immediate attention it seems.

Buyer beware.

[Easy-Rider 66]

From the sounds of things and a couple of people I know from back in the day up there, your handicapping might have been better than some of the results EZ.
This needs immediate attention it seems.

Buyer beware.

It's too bad as they are the main track on HT/DW for MON/TUES. Also usually some nice fields running. In addition, only track I know of that has a female track caller. Jessica is her name and in the beginning she was a rough listen. But she has improved leaps and bounds since then. Hope they clean it up but I have my doubts.

[JBEX]

saratoga 9 @ 5:44
#1 chancer mcpatrick (9-2)

[JBEX]

saratoga 9 @ 5:44
#1 chancer mcpatrick (9-2)

I see a good effort here but not enough to beat chad's other ml fav #3 strategic focus..can't box at those odds but I like a straight 31 exacta which I'm guessing would be around $10 for 2

[str]

saratoga 9 @ 5:44
#1 chancer mcpatrick (9-2)

Great to see him win yesterday. Nothing like being the best in the race from a conditions point of view. A restricted Stakes race and he has won Grade 1's. That is how you do it.

Good to see him back. I heard the stat about undefeated on a dry Saratoga track and that could be it. But sounds like a bit of a stretch. Maybe not, and time will tell but seems a little weak to hang your hat on that.
All in all though, he ran a real game race. Congrats to him.

[JBEX]

Great to see him win yesterday. Nothing like being the best in the race from a conditions point of view. A restricted Stakes race and he has won Grade 1's. That is how you do it.

Good to see him back. I heard the stat about undefeated on a dry Saratoga track and that could be it. But sounds like a bit of a stretch. Maybe not, and time will tell but seems a little weak to hang your hat on that.
All in all though, he ran a real game race. Congrats to him.

agree from a class perspective and especially trying to win at 2 turns for the 1st time it was a perfect spot ..I wouldn't draw the conclusion he can't handle wet tracks off 1 race breaking from an outside post in the kings bishop either

I think it's not an automatic he will run in the travers considering what he did here as a 2yo in sprints .. taking on journalism and sovereignty not so appealing and i might feel differently if it was an average to below average field .. I think the forego @ 7f (grade 1)on 8/23 might be a better option ..will be interesting to see which one they choose assuming of course he came out of this race ok

[str]

Oh man ! Just watched Tony Dutrow win a race at the Spa. His wife Kimmie was there and his son the groom.
I’ve gotta get up there and see him. Think I’ll text him and see what he’s up to.

[JBEX]

Oh man ! Just watched Tony Dutrow win a race at the Spa. His wife Kimmie was there and his son the groom.
I’ve gotta get up there and see him. Think I’ll text him and see what he’s up to.

was going to let you know

[str]

was going to let you know

Ok folks. Put this one in your watch list.

Time To Dream.

My goodness!

[str]

Ok folks. Put this one in your watch list.

Time To Dream.

My goodness!

So this is what I’m talking about watching for things to jump out.
I have no form and not betting. Just watching.
But this horse I just mentioned will be a nice playback next out if her odds are tolerable. And take that play and look to play her back in the 2 yr. Old BC Turf. So impressive in that first start today. Kind of like Chances McPatrick last year. An incredible final 1/4 mile effort.

[JBEX]

Ok folks. Put this one in your watch list.

Time To Dream.

My goodness!

the peripherals great also..cost a boatload,imo by best turf sire in the country and named like she's meant to be something (always like that) .. next obviously will be in a turf stakes and will keep an eye out for her return

[JBEX]

put up saturday ..11026

[JBEX]

str and i following this one since his debut (perspective for those who don't know)

del mar 10 @ 9:32 ..bing crosby grade 1
#5 world record (3-1)

[str]

str and i following this one since his debut (perspective for those who don't know)

del mar 10 @ 9:32 ..bing crosby grade 1
#5 world record (3-1)

He looks very well placed in here.

F. Prat flies out from Saratoga to ride him. What does that tell you?

[JBEX]

He looks very well placed in here.

F. Prat flies out from Saratoga to ride him. What does that tell you?

I think he'll try to stalk the 3 and 6 who are committed front runners ..like his chances with a clean trip

he's in all 3 stakes races including the 3-5 favorite nysos in the san diego handicap ..certainly can see him going in addition to his familiarity with the track ..even the other minor stakes he's on the 3-1 second choice .. nice to be him !

[JBEX]

R2 @ saratoga (expensive AM debuter) is loaded but no surprise for a msw on a big race undercard

[str]

I think he'll try to stalk the 3 and 6 who are committed front runners ..like his chances with a clean trip

he's in all 3 stakes races including the 3-5 favorite nysos in the san diego handicap ..certainly can see him going in addition to his familiarity with the track ..even the other minor stakes he's on the 3-1 second choice .. nice to be him !

Yeah, I saw Nysos was in as well.
The guy is elite.

Hope he does sit just off. If they work on that all season he might really benefit from it if he learns to like it.

[str]

R2 @ saratoga (expensive AM debuter) is loaded but no surprise for a msw on a big race undercard

Another blood and guts AM.
Winner first out.

[JBEX]

Another blood and guts AM.
Winner first out.

there was a lot of post race commentary on the broadcast along the lines of stuff you've talked about .. losing focus,confusion about what's going on overall ..in spite of all that got the job done anyway