hey oilman, i see your awake and kicking lol hows your mind? i hope my best in the 7th at churchill pops today playing win-place and exactas 4-1, 4-3, 4-9
ps you playing cards tonight?
ps you playing cards tonight?
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I'm coming back with the same angle in the 7th at Churchill, #13 Chief Export, stayed in from the AE for trainer/owner Bobby O'Connor, should get a clean trip at a square price.
Good luckComment -
I just boxed your horses 3,4 and 9 with 13 in the 7th at Churchill.Comment -
It's a shame I'm not wheeling exactas today, as I had been flat betting W/P prior to the 7th, a 772$ exacta.
I did recoup some with the 6$ place price, but it's no consolation for having not wheeled the exacta.
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I'll be on the #1 Tappit Dancer in the 8th race, looks like every pole could be a winner if Bridgie uses the speed, not always a good idea to bet 2YO fillies on the rail, a lot of bad things can happen, but I'll make an exception this time.Comment -
The race didn't unfold the way I really wanted it to, although it looked good at the break, when the jock didn't go to the front I got worried, as they came down the stretch the #1 was trapped in behind horses and was lucky to get out, fortunately the filly was much stronger than expected.Comment -
In the 9th at Churchill they will go long on the dirt after being rained off the turf, three horses come out of a grass race at the distance and one of the three is an overwhelming favorite (#4 Harrods Creek).
I'm going to look to beat him today with the horse that finished 3/4 of a length behind him, the #8 Bucheron, I like the price as opposed to the favorite.
I see now it is a scratch, disregard this post, no play.Last edited by daoilman; 11-18-10, 04:33 PM.Comment -
Alright, lets go to the nightcap, in the tenth race I see two or three possible plays, the first is the #1 Necaise who raced up close to a 44 and change split in the return race from and extended layoff, this horse could easily move forward today, look for this one to try it on the front end.
Next is the #9 Touch For A Shock, this horse could be dangerous if able to break without stumbling, who knows how good this horse could be, note troubled starts in the first two tries and still showed good early speed.
The last is #11 Dirt Demon, this horse has never raced vs. claimers, very dangerous.
Good luck.Comment -
#9 Touch For A Shock, takes the nightcap.
Took the #11 in sbr contest today as my Best Bet,,,,,,,,still looking for him ?/?/>?Comment -
Good afternoon everyone, I'll be sticking with Churchill again today, I'll be breaking the races down one at a time in an effort to find winners at fair prices, I will be flat betting in the win/place pools dependent on the odds as each post time approaches.
Good luck today.
Nice to see Joe and Larry around, thanks for stopping by guys.
Edit: It appears Churchill is starting late today (4:30 pm est post time for the 1st race), but I'll still be here when it happens.Last edited by daoilman; 11-19-10, 12:09 PM.Comment -
There was no play in the 1st race for me, looking at the 2nd race now.Comment -
Here we go, in the 2nd race at Churchill there are two possible plays.
The first is the #1 Wildcat Heiress who will probably be the favorite at short odds, the advantage for this horse is her speed and the cutback from 6f to 5f, the numbers should get better if she takes to the grass.
The second horse is the #4 Wicked Uno, this horse stayed close to a very fast opening 1/2 mile in her comeback race after an extended layoff, should move forward if she takes to the grass.
The public has made the #2 the favorite, this horse appears to have stamina issues, a weak play at a short price.
I'll play the #4.Comment -
Hi oily in the 2nd race im kinda like the 1 or the 6 gonna play exacta box and a triple 1 with 6-2Comment -
thought the 6 was gonna sneak in there for 3rdComment -
in the 3rd im on the #10 win-place classic harmony with rosemary aboard and im also playing a 10cent super keyed 10 with 5-3-8-9 and another using the #9 with the 5-3-8-10
$3wp on #10 and two supers for a total of $10.80Comment -
The 4th at Churchill is rather complicated, there are several horses that display running lines that make them live.
I'm gonna start with the first angle I was taught a long time ago, "Never bet against horses that are undefeated", while this angle is not written in stone it is an angle that is sometimes overlooked by the public. In the 4th there are two horses who were first out winners in maiden claiming races, both of these horses won their respective races with power runs, that is closing from off the pace, that in itself is an angle.
#3 Philogyny scored for Albert Stall in 30k maiden claimer from post 12 while fanning four wide off the turn, my only concern is that he didn't do it with special weights, this one could be a possible play, sketchy?.
#5 Ramsey Kitten, this horse scored first time out with 20k maiden claimers for Mike Maker in what can be described as an extended drive, as he both passed horses and made up ground on the rest at every call, again, the concern is the that he accomplished this verses claimers.
It looks like there will be plenty of pace here due to most of the starters racing in sprints only up to this point, perhaps the speed of speed can wire, but I doubt it.
Lets take a closer look at the #1 Sam's Philly, this horse has never faced claimers before, that alone makes him a threat to win, he'll need to work out a smooth trip to close the deal.
The #4 will be the last horse that has a probable winning line, fanned four wide and pushing to the front is very encouraging when considered with the class move up to 40k claimers, possible?
My play will be the #1, Sam's Philly, I should get a little edge in price, I only hope for a smooth trip.
Good luck.Comment -
In the 5th I'll be playing the #3 Bruce Spingsteed based on his first out performance.
This horse trained at Churchill early on, then it looks like he shipped to Keenland for the abbreviated meet they hold, he worked twice while there but didn't race there, he then shipped back to Churchill where he worked one more time before his first start. In his first start he raced forwardly into deep stretch before tiring.
Note the comment, "Dueled inside".
Improvement expected today.Comment -
In the 6th it looks like the live horses are the #5 and the #8 based off turf earnings and number of starts this year, I'll side with the #5 hopeful that I get a square price.Comment -
I think the #8 is going to be really tough in this spot.Comment -
Tough picking winners at this joint, the #1 was playable as maybe a third choice @ 3-1, I was overzealous with the earnings of the #5 and #8, the #8 who has earned over 100k on turf and the #5 who is close to 100k in turf earnings were the focus of my play, I ignored the #1, my mistake, his 80k+ in turf earnings should have been noted.Comment -
I really like the #9 in the 7th race in Churchill Downs.Comment -
daoilman your right. I missed the #1 also. That was a good exata we missed here.Comment -
In the 7th I'll take a flyer with Zito's piece, the #5 Charlies Swell, blinkers on today, three decent races prior to this start, no reason to believe he won't be around at the finish.Comment -
I like that one also right along with the #9. Good points that you have here.Comment -
That #5 Charlies Swell does have two workouts over the track which helps that one. I normally don't like to play shippers unless they have three workouts since last race at this track just to let me know that this one has been there at the track training there. I have gotten rid of many losers by not taking a horse that has not had any workouts over the track or only having one. It is just getting the horse adjusted to the track where it is racing at helps. The times does not matter as much to me as much as how many workouts at that track and how long that horse has been there getting used to that track.Comment -
I have a good friend of mine that is a pro at racing and he pointed that out to me and he has saved me lots of losers by letting me know that. They beat you maybe like 8 percent of the time so I will take the 92 percent on that one and make them 8 percent ones beat me. It happens but at long as you stay controlled you will be fine. It is key to have 3 workouts in 30 days at today's track no matter the times and that tells you that horse has been training at that track and getting ready for racing. Some will race them in shape so you want a race or two otherwise.Comment -
What a dud there. Neither horse did anything. Lets go on to the 8th race. Yuck.Comment -
Your point is valid there with respect to the winner, he had 5 workouts in the last 30 days.Comment -
This next race is tough. I like the #3 but the jockey is terrible.Comment
