2018 saratoga and del mar ...just maidens

[JBEX]

The maiden site is good. It's the future of all the races ..key to handicapping .I think the 2 year old maiden races at spa and del Mar are key .

yes hart very good.. tremendous amount of useful information you can get for free.. 20 years ago you had to buy telephone book sized publications at about $100 dollars a year to get this kind of data


going to use this opportunity to put up a baseball system for afternoon game today.. wouldn't just put it up as an individual post in this forum

after break..
day..
divisional..
away..
<=38% team..
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total >=8


0-16 (+112) (-2.94)

fade cws



det +107 ////// .75 units

[JBEX]

The maiden site is good. It's the future of all the races ..key to handicapping .I think the 2 year old maiden races at spa and del Mar are key .

a lot of really good horses start out at these places..I think if you're eyeing big fall races you want to get a win or good run at the summer meets

[JBEX]

added R7 post 209

[JBEX]

added dmr R6 post 209

[JBEX]

added dmr 8

[JBEX]

saratoga

R4 #3 zip it jess (15-1)
R6 #8 face it (5-1)


R9 ex box 67

[JBEX]

finished saratoga

[JBEX]

del mar

R1

#3 resolu (20-1)

big pedigree moss (big time player) homebred ran a decent 4th by less than 2 lengths in her debut 3 starts back in May.. the following race was about 7 lengths faster than par final time so that's tough to come back to for a 2nd race.. went evenly back pack around the track next race off a 56 day layoff and in that race the splits were extremely fast and even being back an average of 6 lengths at the pace calls she was still about 2 lengths faster than par.. back in half that amount of time today and don't think the connections would run her back quick if they felt something was wrong.. her closing style is what wins turf routes at this track.. jock 1/4 with this trainer last 60 days and that horse paid $36


#4 tig tog (6-1)

euro ran 2nd by a head in start #2 as a 2yo in June in england at 7f in a 16 horse field.. tough distance, big field and very young horse so impressive to me.. 3 other 3rd place finishes over there in her short 7 race career.. by classy euro sire dark angel and cost 117k at auction.. trainer gallagher 3/18 with euro shippers and they have averaged about an $18 win mutuel.. looks to have a versatile running style.. bejarano up to ride


R4 #4 camby (4-1) 444

thinking maybe he can get back to 2nd career race at santa anita as a 2yo which would make him a contender in here.. close to ridiculous pace next start at a mile and then ran 2nd to a fairly decent horse named "justify" in start #4.. switches back to stevens who rode him in 2nd start



R5 #13 hunted (9-2)


nothing fancy here..up close to a very fast pace last out and held for 3rd.. not a lot if any speed in here but you never know with maidens..not convinced after just 2 starts that this horse is a confirmed front runner anyway.. back in 3 weeks after being off 2 months and should be fitter.. nice pedigree overall



R8 #10 desolation sound (15-1)


just missed (< 1 length) going sprint/ route (actually 6.5 to a mile same as today but turf) .. horse finally gets to go 2 turns at what is probably the proper level as the connections willing to take a loss should he be claimed...figueroa winning 22% from 36 mounts routing which is quite impressive for anybody let alone a 5 lb bug


previous extra inning shutout loss..
previous wednesday...
total >=8..
dog <=150 or favorite..


12-0 (-105.8) (1.58)

as low a margin as I've seen for record like this ..they win but close ones

oak +130 /// .38 units

[JBEX]

added dmr 4 5

[JBEX]

added 8

[JBEX]

saratoga (know it's off turf and sloppy)


R1 #10 arch of the diver (small)

motion having a horrible meet but they thought enough of this one to ship him up from fair hills training
center 4 days ago.. has regular long works dating back to may.. he's 4 and hasn't run since sept as a 2yo (only 2 starts).. first time gelding.. all in all find these things interesting


R2 #13 standard deviation

even with elite sire curlin this guy expensive relative to the pedigree.. dam was a winner (non stakes)
and 2 winners from 4 starters and they were nothing special .. 450k a lot for this.. way above average off track pedigree ...short but very tough in here



R4 #1 pointer view (12-1)

another very expensive for pedigree

stud fee.. 12,500
dam.. winner (non-stakes)
1 starter was a minor earner .
obscure dam sire bred for speed


$200k a bunch for these specs


anthony dutrow if you happen to stop by str


R6 # 3 most mischief (10-1)

2 even efforts in first 2 starts with troubled trips..debut,2nd race and today all 4 weeks apart..by elite sire "into mischief" out of am unraced dam who has been a big producer..

5 winners from 6 starters with 3 of them being stakes winners..all 5 winners won as 2yo's and that's very impressive..trainer bret calhoun excellent with young horses
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after break..
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2005

23-1 (-264) (3.88)
14-2 (-1.5)

nyy -1.5 (-150)

[JBEX]

added R2

[Louisvillekid1]

Gl .

[JBEX]

Gl .

thanks lk

[JBEX]

added R4

[JBEX]

added R6

[JBEX]

del mar

R1 #5 cherished (6-1)


R5 #1 air jockey (6-1)


made his debut as a 4yo back in febuary and ran an even 3rd in what was a very fast race..last start off a 5 month layoff had a wide trip and finished a closer (by lengths behind) 3rd also.. just have a hunch that these connections might like to get in the winners circle on del mar's big day and it's not a coincidence that we see him here today.. rail excellent in dmr sprints


R9 #5 taos (20-1)

huge pedigree tapit out of a stakes winning mare, 3 winners from as many starters and 1 was a stakes winner... only 1 of the 3 ran as a 2yo and won first out...nice works ..realize mandella usually
not big on winning first out but maybe the connections would like to have a first out winner on pc day

[JBEX]

added R5

[JBEX]

added R9

[JBEX]

saratoga

R2 #7 timber ghost (6-1)
R3 #5 that's speightful (10-1) #9 rarities (6-1)

R5 #2 heroic activist (10-1) #4 alasaayil ( 8-1) half unit

[JBEX]

added R5

[Louisvillekid1]

timber ghost was impressive nice

[JBEX]

timber ghost was impressive nice

thanks

[Louisvillekid1]

Not that you need the assistance

But love the #1 Lutenanny (8/1 m/l) in the 2nd, & think we even get DD cuz unknown

And in the finale the #7 Won’t Be Missed, is worth a play (20/1 m/l)

Both up your alley

Let me know

Spa ^ of course

[JBEX]

Not that you need the assistance

But love the #1 Lutenanny (8/1 m/l) in the 2nd, & think we even get DD cuz unknown

And in the finale the #7 Won’t Be Missed, is worth a play (20/1 m/l)

Both up your alley

Let me know

Spa ^ of course

R2 #1 lutenany

geez..a 6yo nyb 2nd time starter who's based in md ..tried a turf route about a month ago at laurel vs
mcl 40k and didn't do much and now ships all the way up here..obviously a mdn clm 25K pays significantly more than a race down there vs open mcl but still a lot to go through to run a horse up here
especially factoring in age and local jock coming up to ride..worked a bullet 2 days prior to debut
(kind of interesting since it was a turf route)and exactly 2 weeks after that race and both were the exact same time 35.3 one b the other hg...can't deny lots going on here


#2 zecha (5-1)

I almost feel guilty after saying all that that I prefer this one..I think fast track this distance and level he's tough in here.. pletcher's (#10 stay good) is a half to a 700k + earner so can't be a good sign he's up for 25k


R9 #7 won't be missed (20-1)

the one thing that intrigues me about him a bit is how similar the race he ran 4 back is to the race he ran last out..stretched out and ran within 4 lengths of the winner @ 77-1 and is stretching out here again..more of a fill out the bottom of verticals type for me though


#1 riendo (9-2)

similar to the R2 pick feel he'll be tough vs claimers

[JBEX]

R4 #6 introduced (9-2)

2yo first time starter

$5k stud
dam winner
2 winners/3 starters/1 of those a turf winner
low dam production index meaning winners nothing special

$310k a bunch for these specs

jose ortiz only mount for this stable last 60 days a $10.40 winner

[Louisvillekid1]

Cheers

[JBEX]

[JJJ]

nice one

[JBEX]

nice one

I only looked at him because of lkid ..thought there was a positive based on what I said but my pick was the 1..thanks anyway though jjj

[JBEX]

del mar

R8 #6 gringo star (4-1)

[JBEX]

saratoga

R5 exacta 13/8

all are first time starters.. rather than try to beat both pletcher and brown (1,3) going to just try for 2nd behind them

R6 #8 our honor (6-5)

not a play.. probably go off 2-5 and guessing they'll be a minus pool

[JBEX]

del mar

R4 #4 shake n fries (4-1) 444

this is a way above average win early pedigree..street boss out of an unraced dixieland band mare (don't see many db (old) as broodmare sires) and interesting this only her 2nd foal to race..both sire and dam sire 17% first out which is very high and street boss is a sprint sire..up for 32k first out doesn't bother me with this pedigree


R8 #5 causeididitmyway (6-1)

trainer fantastic in maiden claiming races and feel the drop is what this horse needs

[JBEX]

finished dmr

[JBEX]

saratoga friday

R4 #5 seven jewels (8-1)

"off a beat slow, greenly" was the chart callers comment.. I think the resulting running line is a great set up race to stretch out off.. the winners figure in that race (2yof sb msw) was above the par for a 2yof sb stakes so that was a fast race she exited..she went off 3-1 in that race and the winner went on to repeat in her next start

some trainer stats.. brad cox

356/29%.. 46-90 days off
85/34%.. first race on grass
91/29%..first try route

big brown/too much bling mare... above avg turf but below avg class ..cost 10k and dam was a minor stakes winner at a small circuit track ..this to me about neutral info but other stuff like very much


#4 tiztinabella (12-1) half unit

gleaves has won with a big price debuter on turf according to the trainer stats and I believe (but not sure) it was at this meet.. sire and dam sire above avg turf influences


R11 #5 good old boy (12-1)

really feel this one a hidden gem..4 career starts beginning as a 2yo

no blinkers broke slow debut...

adds them breaks from 11 post ,shows speed beyond the eighth pole on a very fast pace..

breaks slow from rail and looks like a rough trip

1 start as a 3yo in january (dirt)and did nothing

5.5f turf dropping to mcl seems like a good move..dam sire nashwan who's strictly euro turf..
gets irad whose 2/3 riding for maker last 60..sure at least one,maybe both at saratoga