2018 saratoga and del mar ...just maidens

[JBEX]

del mar

R3 triple 14/147/147 all favorites

R4 #10 pray for cords (6-1)

gets off the rail where all his efforts have been bad in his short 6 race career..outside post is the place to be in del mar sprints and his 2 and 3 back efforts make him very tough in here..jock pedroza having a terrible meet here and hopefully that helps the price


R6 #3 sassy kitty (20-1)

R8 #8 jonas (8-1) triple 8's

[JBEX]

added 6 8

[JBEX]

saratoga

R1 #3 caralicious (8-1)
R2 #1 free kitty (9-2)
R3 #6 surface strike (9-2)

[str]

I like the concept of the thread.

Always fun to follow the high priced babies.

How is this going so far?

[Easy-Rider 66]

saratoga

R1 #3 caralicious (8-1)
R2 #1 free kitty (9-2)
R3 #6 surface strike (9-2)

R1/R3 Off the turf.

[JBEX]

I like the concept of the thread.

Always fun to follow the high priced babies.

How is this going so far?

hey str ..looks like I missed you first time around..as I usually do I am not keeping records..that's been controversial in here but I don't believe small samples tell the true story or of I'm going bad early on its because of making bad decisions. .I just want to get a feel for what it's like focusing on the maidens..like looking at the pedigree stats and connections and try to come up with something to beat the two amigos..i'm talking pletcher and brown of course..also can put a little extrace tome into the pedigrees since i'm looking at less races..btw I love the place to do pedigree query's that you posted in hart's thread a way... back and use it a lot..also do the horse search to look up the dam..when it says stakes winner in the brisnet's is it a horse who won a minor stakes at emerald downs or multiple graded stakes winner against the big boys (or girls)..don't always look at everything but on occasion put the extra effort in..like the mdn claimers also ..drop down well meant..is horse dropping a level and cutting back or stretching out..also with the msw like looking for the extra expensive horse relative to the pedigree. .army mule was one of those and baffert had one last weekend I believe ...army mule is pletcher so value wasn't there with those..need to get that with midle of the road trainers for any value. .anyway i'll stop blabbing away but in general enjoy handicapping these type of races

[JBEX]

del mar


R3 #1 charming slew (6-1)
R6 #8 asaltante (4-1)
R8 #6 palladium (5-2)

[brucedenton]

Hello JBEX

You hit 2 out of 3!! Great job!!

[JBEX]

You hit 2 out of 3!! Great job!!

thanks bruce...I try to stay on an even keel with results
though..don't feel i'm as bad as the bad days or as good as the good ones..if I had to emphasize a category though it would definitely be these types of races (maidens)

[JBEX]

saratoga

R2 #2 red curls (12-1)

this filly has run better figures (brisnet ) than the favorites running against msw and finishing 6 lengths back in both efforts.. judging by the comment looks like a rough trip at tampa bay in her last race..the purse for mcl 40's up here is twice that of a msw at tampa .. gets a better jock and maybe vs mdn claimers can wake up at a bit of a price

[Getch13]

saratoga

R2 #2 red curls (12-1)

this filly has run better figures (brisnet ) than the favorites running against msw and finishing 6 lengths back in both efforts.. judging by the comment looks like a rough trip at tampa bay in her last race..the purse for mcl 40's up here is twice that of a msw at tampa .. gets a better jock and maybe vs mdn claimers can wake up at a bit of a price

Like her as well Good Luck

[JBEX]

Like her as well Good Luck

ok getch...you too

[JBEX]

saratoga

R2 #2 red curls (12-1)

this filly has run better figures (brisnet ) than the favorites running against msw and finishing 6 lengths back in both efforts.. judging by the comment looks like a rough trip at tampa bay in her last race..the purse for mcl 40's up here is twice that of a msw at tampa .. gets a better jock and maybe vs mdn claimers can wake up at a bit of a price

R5 #10 pakhet (4-1)


R10 #2 southern brigade (8-1)

don't think i've ever seen 3 first time starters by the same sire break from consecutive posts (in this case 2-4) they're all by big brown.. like that castellano takes the mount for rr who can win with a newbie... big brown above avg turf and first foal out a winning giant's causeway (turf class) mare.. horse cost $37k and this could pay for him here plus an extra $8k if they win this

[JBEX]

added 10

[JBEX]

del mar


R5 #6 marrazano (20-1)

this would definitely fall into my expensive for the pedigree category.. $17.5 stud fee, dam winner, 2 winners from as many startersand 1 of them won on turf and is also a stakes winner (multiple listed).. but these were won at northland park where these types of races aren't even as good as allowance races at big tracks (maybe as good) ... three 5 furlong works and a 6 furlong work comprise his last 4 works.. she's by new sire verrazano out of a speightstown mare so at least on the bottom turf should be ok.. trying a turf route here for her debut


R8 #1 staythirstymyamigo (5-2)

think debuting and showing speed at mcl 80k was just a prep for this spot.. only cost $10kand trainer is 4/11 with double + drop downs..jockey 2/5 with trainer last 60 days.. short price but tough in here

[JBEX]

finished del mar

[Easy-Rider 66]

4 MDN Races at the Spa/3 at Ole DMR. GL if posting.

[JBEX]

saratoga

R2 #8 exchequer (3-1)

R6 #2 network effect (5-1)

$2500 (twenty five hundred) stallion fee and dam a winner who produced 1 minor winner $95k a lot of money for this one .. dam sire put it back is a speed influence..chad brown trains one of his less expensive beginners and maybe that'll help the price a bit


R11 #1 dancindwthdaffodls (5-1)

2 turns on grass at this level for the first time.. what she's managed vs msw should make her tough here

#8 protect the king (30-1) half unit

maybe the even sprints and multiple lengthy works could have her ready for a surprise here on the stretch out.. come on leo win one already lol



del mar

R6 #9 be a shero (10-1)

15 k stud..
stakes placed dam**..
3 winners from as many starters but all were nothing special..

$385k.. big bucks

** meaningless 3rd in a listed stakes at calder in her 2nd start as a 2yo and she was still a maiden..
a horse could miss by a nose in a grade 3 as an older horse and it would say the same thing "stakes placed" big difference.. in this case it's a positive because it's another knock against the dam.. horse must be a specimen to cost that with that pedigree.. speed oriented bloodlines

[JBEX]

added R6

[JBEX]

added R11

[JBEX]

added del mar R6

[JBEX]

saratoga

R6 #6 hollywood glory (8-1)

$25k stud fee and believe he was a lot less last year which makes multiple even greater... dam was a winner and 0 winners from 1 starter...at $180k that's an expensive yearling relative to specs.. only thing against this would be the dam sire is an elite sire so that could shed some light on the price.. mclean's music is a new ascending sire who is well above average with debuters.. trainer hening
can win with a firster.. castellano rides


del mar

R5 #1 magnificent mccool (9-2)

another expensive relative to the pedigree and overall at $625k..just the type of running line i like to see in a sprint to set up for the stretch out.. you can tell by the many long works they were aiming for the win 2nd out; turf and distance are what "giant's causeway's" do


R7 #1 absolute control (20-1)

expensive for pedigree..win early sprint bloodlines


R9 #3 sky babe (8-1)

homebred..speed win early pedigree..solid works

[JBEX]

added del mar

[JBEX]

finished del mar

[JBEX]

saratoga

R5 #7 promise me roses (6-1)

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey Jbex: I undertsand you do not want to track. No worries. But would be ideal if you would at least give a run down on the results? It would add value to your threads. Just saying.

[JBEX]

Hey Jbex: I undertsand you do not want to track. No worries. But would be ideal if you would at least give a run down on the results? It would add value to your threads. Just saying.

might as well track then.. not trying to prove anything here.. if people want to play they can and if they don't that's fine also.. don't want extra bookkeeping chores

[Easy-Rider 66]

might as well track then.. not trying to prove anything here.. if people want to play they can and if they don't that's fine also.. don't want extra bookkeeping chores

OK. Tracking takes a lot more effort though. Plus more pressure. I guess you just want to post plays and that's it. No worries. Each to his own.

[JBEX]

OK. Tracking takes a lot more effort though. Plus more pressure. I guess you just want to post plays and that's it. No worries. Each to his own.

not really.. I don't consider this pressure.. if I do well great but wouldn't lose any sleep if I didn't .. I put the effort in and don't just throw things up for the heck of it.. we're getting back to our original argument
with this so probably better off leaving it here

[Easy-Rider 66]

not really.. I don't consider this pressure.. if I do well great but wouldn't lose any sleep if I didn't .. I put the effort in and don't just throw things up for the heck of it.. we're getting back to our original argument
with this so probably better off leaving it here

Write one more thing and you can have last word. Tracking is def more pressure. Not real life but internet pressure. How come you abandoned your major thread when you get out of gate slow? Then you tracked again, and called it off after another slow start. That's it. I will leave it at that. And I know you think short term results mean little. But as much as you post you would have a long term outlook. Anyway I will carry on.

[JBEX]

Write one more thing and you can have last word. Tracking is def more pressure. How come you abandoned your major thread when you get out of gate slow? Then you tracked again, and called it off after another slow start. That's it. I will leave it at that.

200,000 race study (may be off by 1% here or there.. doesn't matter)

top 6 choices no handicapping you'll lose about 22 cents on the dollar without any handicapping over a large sample.. so why waste time with all the short term ups and downs..you're skill or lack of it will probably up you 3-5 % over time...oh my god, i'm 53% roi in the forum after 86 plays.. hope I can sleep at night.. means nothing ...and then people are drawing conclusions based on a small sample which I hate.. big avg odds = big swings in results over a short period of time

[Easy-Rider 66]

Could not resist jbex. One more comment. A DISCLAIMER: SHORT TERM RESULTS NOT INDICATIVE OF LONG TERM APTITUDE. Best of both philosophies. Word.

[JBEX]

Could not resist jbex. One more comment. A DISCLAIMER: SHORT TERM RESULTS NOT INDICATIVE OF LONG TERM APTITUDE. Best of both philosophies. Word.

[JBEX]

saratoga

R2 #5 miss flambe (8-1)

by new sire alpha(bernardini) who won his debut at saratoga as a 2yo and finished 2nd in the champagne in start #2.. wound up with $1.8M in career earnings over his career.. dam won debut and has had 4 winners from as many starters including a stakes winner who won it's 2yo debut.. 2 of the 3 starters who ran as 2yo's won..sure dominic schettino who doesn't get his hands on this type very often would love to notch a debut win up here and because it isn't pletcher, brown or ward maybe the price will be halfway decent


R7 #9 desert isle (8-1)

if I were investing $20 . $12W #9.. $3 ex 67/9..$1 xbox 67

only looking to make a little profit if the 2 non-keys (6,7) come top 2

if jack gilligan were riding this one lol

probably 5 or 6 horses in this race could be favored in an average race and I'd bet one or two really nice ones will come out of here.. that being said gotta choose and feel this one has some useful races on the dirt under her and consider this one and chad brown's #7 civil union
a little better than the others pedigree-wise (chad's is a debuter)


del mar

R6 #6 square peggy (6-1) 666 chilling lol

expensive for the pedigree..not outrageous but definitely
on the high side..speed pedigree top/bottom.solid attempt finishing 3rd first out and 2nd start today

some trainer numbers

31/35%..2nd start (very profitable)
90/17% .. maidens
74/18%..2yo
18/28%..jock trainer combo last 60 days


R8 #4 magnum maduro (15-1)

turf to dirt and 3 level drop (msw/mcl20k) doesn't concern me as a cheap horse to begin with..trainer has excellent numbers 2nd off the layoff

[harthebar]

The maiden site is good. It's the future of all the races ..key to handicapping .I think the 2 year old maiden races at spa and del Mar are key .