JBEX or mikemca

**JBEX** · 03-05-17, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by Team Taylor

Other than costing me 10.80 instead of 2.00....no

It's called a rainbow 6 ..besides the .20 base bet
it only pays out the whole pool if one person hits it..otherwise 30% of whatever got bet that day carrys over to the next day (less track take).. only 70% of what's taken in daily is paid out to multiple ticket holders who have 6 winners..that's a lot less than the carrot they're hanging out there if you hit it alone which would require at least 3-4 good priced horses..plus with the small base bet
your hit will reflect that vs a $2 typical base bet for the p6..not saying it's a bad bet but it's a different animal than something you'd try to catch in ny,ky or cal with the $2 base bet

**Team Taylor** · 03-05-17, 08:23 PM

Big difference! Wife and I were just reading about that on their website. I can see where any exotic or pick bets can get in to a bankroll in a hurry. More help please. Don't take this the wrong way and think I'm saying I know it all but I think I need more help on betting and wagering properly than picking. Again don't take that as I think I'm the handicapper of the year but I understand some of the basics of the PP's. I just can't get my head around the odds vs win or place then the odds move......In general terms 10 of to 1 odds wager 5.00. Anything higher wager 3.00 or even 2.00. Is that the direction ? Again in general as an example. I'm going back thru by book as well. That was a great recommendation.

**JBEX** · 03-05-17, 08:54 PM

the tote system in this sport is archaic.. all the money from off track sites hit in the last couple of minutes before the race goes off which is why the odds change late.. if all money immediately went into the track pool (on site) you wouldn't have these last minute swings.

money mgmt and betting strategy very important and where a lot of people go wrong.. I'd stay with with win and place wagering for now.. there's other things you can do with exotics but imo learn this first..

example of bet sizes.. you really should have a bankroll so let's say 200..if you want to be real precise
10 win (under 5-1).. 8 win (5 to10-1).. 6 win (10 to15-1).etc...minimum bet 3 at higher odds.. If you want to group in ranges of 10 then.. 10 (under 10-1).. 7 (odds10-20).. 3 (odds over 20).. as I said before you won't hit the higher odds as often so the bet has to reflect that.. if you want to split above amounts between win and place that's fine.. bankroll not really necessary if you just find amounts you are comfortable with.. I'd stick with this and concentrate on the handicapping for now..down the road I can show you some exacta, triple and super strategies

**Team Taylor** · 03-06-17, 07:04 AM

And that ties to the Kelly Criterion, right? Awesome example. That's the base I was looking to work from. Many thanks....... again.

**JBEX** · 03-06-17, 08:23 AM

Originally posted by Team Taylor

And that ties to the Kelly Criterion, right? Awesome example. That's the base I was looking to work from. Many thanks....... again.

It does but I actually just pulled those numbers off the top of my head but since you brought it up here's an example..

200 bank

15% edge (some would argue too high but I think reasonable )

%bank =edge/odds

.15/3 (middle of low odds range) =.05

.05 (200) =10 win on a 3-1

at 5-1... .15/5 =.033

.033 (200) 6.6 win

bottom line I'm in the ball park based on a 200 bank. .splitting hairs every odds level not practical but at least you see where it comes from

**Team Taylor** · 03-19-17, 08:41 AM

Had a round with severe sciatica and been out of the loop. Last weekend at Gulfstream I was down just under 13.00. Yesterday I GOT SPANKED!! I'm thinking of trying another track. Tampa Bay or Santa Anita maybe. Still learning and enjoying.

**JBEX** · 03-31-17, 05:58 AM

must have missed this tt..sorry to hear about the sciatica. .had that a long time ago and not pleasant..there's no quick and easy answers..to this game..try to get a feel for it over time and improve your skills ltitle by little..you'll never avoid bad days,weeks or months no matter how good a horseplayer you become..to me it's having confidence in your skills over the long haul that is truthful when things aren't going well in the short term..that takes time and to be honest my confidence often wanes during prolonged bad spells..just the way it is

**Team Taylor** · 03-31-17, 10:53 AM

No problem Jbex. Still here and still learning as well as referencing my book. Loving the horses!! Also I tried the Timesform US pp's and they're ok I guess. Still like having the paper in my hand but it's a trade off in printing a half a box of paper I guess.

**JBEX** · 03-31-17, 04:11 PM

glad you're enjoying it..as I think I've said I'm a brisnet ultimate user but timeform also a very good product..the final figure incorporates how fast or slow the pace in the race was which I'm sure you're probably aware of.. any questions feel free to ask and I'll do my best to answer them

**Team Taylor** · 05-08-17, 07:01 AM

So what's your thoughts on Thunder Snow. I wasn't on him but didn't expect the rodeo show

**JBEX** · 05-08-17, 08:48 AM

Originally posted by Team Taylor

So what's your thoughts on Thunder Snow. I wasn't on him but didn't expect the rodeo show

chart says extremely rank, bucked hard at the start ,nearly threw rider first sixteenth and was pulled up.. not much to go off.. can be an intimidating place to break with 18 horses to your right