BGboothA's False Favorites

**BGboothA** · 03-15-15, 10:52 AM

Current Stats through Saturday 03/14
FF Win % = 21.14%
FF Show % = 44.72%
Avg Win $ = $14.01

124 Qualified Races in the month of March

**BGboothA** · 03-15-15, 10:26 PM

Originally posted by BGboothA

03/15/15

[ATTACH]79473[/ATTACH]

BOOM!!!!! Sundays FF report contained 15 False Favorites...only 1 of them won! The rest produced a 26% show rate and an average win price of $23.19!!

That's the way its supposed to work.

**BGboothA** · 03-16-15, 11:01 AM

False Favorites for Monday = 03/16/15

**cutchemist42** · 03-16-15, 11:40 AM

Originally posted by BGboothA

BOOM!!!!! Sundays FF report contained 15 False Favorites...only 1 of them won! The rest produced a 26% show rate and an average win price of $23.19!!

That's the way its supposed to work.

Great result that day!

**BGboothA** · 03-16-15, 08:06 PM

Haven't checked Mondays Results although I know I missed the Pick3 at PHA because Seeker won.

Here are the FF for Tuesday the 17th.

**BGboothA** · 03-17-15, 09:06 PM

False Favorite Report for 03/18/2015

**BGboothA** · 03-18-15, 10:49 PM

**BGboothA** · 03-20-15, 09:09 PM

I was out of town yesterday, but here is the FF report for Saturday, 03/21

**TonyP** · 03-21-15, 09:01 AM

I like this FF thread

**BGboothA** · 03-22-15, 12:07 PM

FF for Sunday 03/22

**BGboothA** · 03-27-15, 11:31 PM

Been out of town for the week, but here we go again. Here are the False favorites for Florida / Louisiana Derby day.

**BGboothA** · 04-27-15, 11:39 PM

Took a break for a few weeks while we changed up the formula a bit, there are less False Favorites but they are produces (or not producing) at a great rate. Sharing again on a regular basis.

**Arky** · 04-28-15, 04:20 PM

Originally posted by BGboothA

Took a break for a few weeks while we changed up the formula a bit, there are less False Favorites but they are produces (or not producing) at a great rate. Sharing again on a regular basis.

Good call here. Invaluable when it's right as it was today. Keep tweaking it and keep up the good work....

**BGboothA** · 04-28-15, 09:20 PM

All three of today's False Favorites failed to hit the board and the winner of each race paid >$11.00!

Thats the way its supposed to work.

Here are tomorrows!

**cutchemist42** · 04-28-15, 10:43 PM

Great job today!

**StackinGreen** · 04-29-15, 11:41 AM

BG, do you have a false favorites report for 5/1/15 Churchill (Oaks day)?

Thanks.

**aggieshawn** · 04-29-15, 02:01 PM

aggieshawn post to find this thread

**BGboothA** · 04-29-15, 04:16 PM

Originally posted by StackinGreen

BG, do you have a false favorites report for 5/1/15 Churchill (Oaks day)?

Thanks.

Just ran Churchill a few hours ago for Friday..
R05 - Elusive Fate (7/2) FF -18.48
R09 - Something Extra (3/1) FF -11.44
R11 - Stellar wind (7/2) FF -10.57

Just some info on the FF for the Oaks, we have the favorite Stellar Wind at fair odds of 10/1! Our top pick is Condo Commando who is sitting at 4/1 HBD Fair Odds. Loving Condo Commando here.

**StackinGreen** · 04-29-15, 05:37 PM

I think Elusive Fate is the best there, but am totally in agreement that Something Extra (it'll be firm on Friday) and Stellar Wind are susceptible. What's the biggest mark against Elusive Fate?

Thanks.

**BGboothA** · 04-30-15, 09:10 AM

**StackinGreen** · 04-30-15, 11:04 AM

Originally posted by BGboothA

Just ran Churchill a few hours ago for Friday..
R05 - Elusive Fate (7/2) FF -18.48
R09 - Something Extra (3/1) FF -11.44
R11 - Stellar wind (7/2) FF -10.57

Just some info on the FF for the Oaks, we have the favorite Stellar Wind at fair odds of 10/1! Our top pick is Condo Commando who is sitting at 4/1 HBD Fair Odds. Loving Condo Commando here.

When does 5/1/15 come out in its totality? Thanks for the earlier preview.

**BGboothA** · 04-30-15, 12:13 PM

Tonight! More than likely not until around 5pm PST...I will post as soon as I get it

**StackinGreen** · 04-30-15, 11:43 PM

HBD, they out?

**BGboothA** · 05-01-15, 09:19 AM

Sorry went out drinking last night watching the NFL draft...Here they are.

**StackinGreen** · 05-01-15, 09:27 AM

Cool, I'm also going against the favorite at CD race 9. Thanks

**BGboothA** · 05-01-15, 09:32 AM

Looks like we are having post time problems.....ignore that part of the report

**BGboothA** · 05-01-15, 06:16 PM

Derby Day FFR

**StackinGreen** · 05-01-15, 06:29 PM

None at Churchill, huh

**BGboothA** · 05-01-15, 06:45 PM

Nothing qualified at Churchill, a couple of close ones, but nothing that qualified under all the criteria.

Carve in the 4th was close, missed being a FF by less than half a point, but still missed.

Nothing at EMD either which is where I will be...Bummer

**BGboothA** · 05-03-15, 11:10 AM

**StackinGreen** · 05-03-15, 01:37 PM

I'm wondering how favorites have fared on undercard races last 5 years at CD. Also, I noticed that the 1st start of the year (+180 day) horses did pretty poorly compared to their quality. Judy the Beauty nice 2nd but BC champ ... Bayern had nothing. Seek Again 4th but against qualty. Not one top guy won off layoff which I've noted to be a great against angle.

**BGboothA** · 05-04-15, 11:23 AM

Originally posted by StackinGreen

I'm wondering how favorites have fared on undercard races last 5 years at CD. Also, I noticed that the 1st start of the year (+180 day) horses did pretty poorly compared to their quality. Judy the Beauty nice 2nd but BC champ ... Bayern had nothing. Seek Again 4th but against qualty. Not one top guy won off layoff which I've noted to be a great against angle.

Part of our formula is looking for horses coming off a long layoff like that and still rated as the ML favorite. Yesterday Judy the Beauty was close to consideration, she had a morning line of 1-1, but we saw her fair odds line closer to 5-1. The problem with that race was that there wasn't much compeititon in there, we had Dame Dorothy as the best horse in the field and she won, but again we had her fair odds at 4-1, so just better than Judy's.

Bayern was a similar story according to our numbers, he was the best horse in the field, even with the long layoff. Part of the plus was he was moving Route to Sprint which negates some of that negative figures for the long layoff. He again was an even money morning line, but we had his fair odds at 4-1. We saw this field as beeing really really close as six of the seven horses had fair odds of either 4-1 or 5-1. Our figures showed this race as a very close race between the majority of the horses.

As far as a your question on the whole, I think its an interesting angle...I have my database to go back to, I may look into this more, looking at focusing on horses on BIG race days making a comeback on the undercard. A lot of these undercards have huge $$ races and some connections may be trying more than they should to get back into a race. Hmmmm.....quality question.

**BGboothA** · 05-04-15, 11:26 AM

**BGboothA** · 05-04-15, 11:49 AM

Originally posted by StackinGreen

I'm wondering how favorites have fared on undercard races last 5 years at CD. Also, I noticed that the 1st start of the year (+180 day) horses did pretty poorly compared to their quality. Judy the Beauty nice 2nd but BC champ ... Bayern had nothing. Seek Again 4th but against qualty. Not one top guy won off layoff which I've noted to be a great against angle.

Nothing extensive, but it looks like it doens't play much of role historically, at least not on Derby Day. I went through the last 8 years of the Derby undercard and nothing jumps out. Majority of losing favorites are not coming back off long layoffs. Again this is a small sample size and is focused on one day a year.

**StackinGreen** · 05-04-15, 03:56 PM

But were there an inordinate number of Derby faves on the undercard that lost? Seems like every year the Derby undercard is brutal.