BGboothA's False Favorites

[BGboothA]

Alright, this isn't going to be a thread full of picks, but more like NON-PICKS. Everyday when making my plays I look for value, the easiest way to find value is to look for a horse taking money that can't win. We can't lay bet here in the US, but if you could these would be my targets.

[BGboothA]

3/3/15




*MNR and PARX Cancelled today due to track conditions

I will try to post these daily, and update results as I get around to it.

[BGboothA]

03/04/2015



Results of False Favorites posted thus far

Win% = 0.00%
Show% = 33.33%
Average Win Price = $15.60

*Trying to find some data on how often the Morning Line favorite wins/shows. I know the post time favorite is about 33% win and about 70% show. But those are post time favorites. Trying to find data on morning line favorites.

[BGboothA]

I just realized I had the dates wrong the last two posts...ooops

Here are the False Favorites for 03/04/15 for real this time.



Current results of False Favorites posted
Win% = 16.67%
Show% = 50.00%
Average Win Price = $10.67

[balls2wall]

Thanks BG!! Hope you keep this thread going

[BGboothA]

Thanks BG!! Hope you keep this thread going

If my man Neil wants it to keep going it will.

[BGboothA]

Here we go, finally get some real tracks up here starting tomorrow.



Current Stats:
FF Win% = 15.38%
FF Show% = 46.15%
Avg Win $ = $11.34

Good luck out there

[BGboothA]

Well the weather cancelled the majority of the FF I had listed, but the two that actually ran both finished outside of the money at Delta Downs.

Here we go for the 6th...man I am ready to spend less time looking at weather reports and more time looking at PPs.



Current Stats through 03/05
FF Win% = 13.33%
FF Show% = 40.00%
Avg Win $ = $11.15

[Madison]

Thanks BG!! Hope you keep this thread going

Seconded!!

[BGboothA]

I will update stats tomorrow, I am out drinking with some friends. Here is the False favorites report for 03/07.

Going to be a heck of a racing day tomorrow.

[Madison]

I will update stats tomorrow, I am out drinking with some friends. Here is the False favorites report for 03/07.

Going to be a heck of a racing day tomorrow.

[ATTACH]79259[/ATTACH]

So, the further from zero the less you like them correct?

[BGboothA]

So, the further from zero the less you like them correct?

Yes, essentially the FF Figure is their overall score versus the average top horse in that race. The further from zero, the less we like them.

[BGboothA]

Updated stats through 03/06.

FF Win% = 18.52%
FF Show% = 44.44%
Avg Win $ = $11.34

Interesting thought about win price, that is pushed much lower based on field size at some of these small tracks during the week. I am interested to see if that increases on bigger weekends.

[mrginandtonic]

Thanks for posting this FALSE FAVORITES. I haven't been on this forum much since the Breeders Cup. Been busy with NHL. Now that we are closer to May. I will be hopping in here more often.

One question for you, I don't see anything from Santa Anita for today in your False Fav. I'm kinda surprised because there are a lot of good races today and big field too.

GL

[BGboothA]

Thanks for posting this FALSE FAVORITES. I haven't been on this forum much since the Breeders Cup. Been busy with NHL. Now that we are closer to May. I will be hopping in here more often.

One question for you, I don't see anything from Santa Anita for today in your False Fav. I'm kinda surprised because there are a lot of good races today and big field too.

GL

There were two over at Santa Anita today
Race 02 #5 ALFIERO
Race 06 #1 HUG AND A KISS

The one thing that I have found is that most stakes races don't qualify, the field is likely too tight together for a false favorite to pop out.

[Madison]

Saved me money in the 3rd at Tampa.

[Madison]

Would be interested in the angle/logic that discounted Biz The Nurse. I kind of liked Jonrah.

[BGboothA]

Would be interested in the angle/logic that discounted Biz The Nurse. I kind of liked Jonrah.

Jonrah was our top pick. I have attached our full sheet for GP05 below:

[BGboothA]

Alright here we go for the 8th, its a little late in the day I know, but I just got up.



It was really chalky yesterday all over the place and the stats took a hit. Still small sample size at this point.

FF win% = 20.0%
FF Show% = 40.0%
Avg Win $ = $14.19

[BGboothA]

Sorry I missed posting on Monday, but Monday's are slow anyway and with Parx cancelling its not like we missed much.

Here is the false favorite report for Tuesday, March 10th.



FF Win % = 24.14%
FF Show % = 44.83%
Avg Win $ = $13.39

[BGboothA]

I will update the stats when I get to the office this morning...but here are the FF for 03/11/15

[Madison]

I lost my brain temporarily Sunday and bet to much on Kittens Dumplings. Had to take a break.

[BGboothA]

I lost my brain temporarily Sunday and bet to much on Kittens Dumplings. Had to take a break.

I lost on that race as well, I thought Kittens Dumplings fit really well into that spot, was top on our list. I didn't go big, but I had a tough weekend.

[BGboothA]

As always I am constantly trying to find new angles and new ideas. Looking at this false favorite report I have begun to look at connected races that make the report. For instance today DED05, DED06 and DED07 all make the list. If I believe in these numbers (and I do) that would say to me that there is added value likely in the horizontal bets that tie these races together. In this case, the rolling DD and the race 05 pick3.

I am not playing much today, other than some morning Derby Wars (sitting in 1st with 1 race to go in 1 tourney and sitting in 6th with 1 to go in another).

I think I will take a swing at the DED05-07 string this evening.

[BGboothA]

Maybe I am crazy, but I am also bored and had a good morning at GP and Tampa.

I will be out and about so the only plays tonight will be focused on these three races at DED that qualified as my FF. Weather looks good at Delta, so why not take a couple of shots.

I know its rudementary math, and there are tons of other factors, but the FF is winning at 20%, meaning its losing at 80%, so simplisticated idea here I know, but for a FF to fail to win three times in row should be about 51%. So we are going to try to beat all three of these FF in a set of rolling DD and a combo of pick3 tickets.

Daily Doubles = $24 baseline bet
R05 DD = 3,7 / 1,2,4,6 = $8
R05 DD = 3,7,8,9 / 1,6 = $8
R06 DD = 1,6 / 1,6,7,10 = $8
R06 DD = 1,2,4,6 / 1,7 = $8

(AAA, AAB) Pick 3s = $24
3,7 / 1,6 / 1,7 = $4 (All A's x2) = $8
8,9 / 1,6 / 1,7 = $4
3,7 / 2,3,4 / 1,7 = $6
3,7 / 1,6 / 2,6,10 = $6

(ABB) Pick 3s = $21 *I likely / usually won't play these in P3s
8,9 / 2,3,4 / 1,7 = $6
8,9 / 1,6 / 2,6,10 = $6
3,7 / 2,3,4 / 2,6,10 = $9

[BGboothA]

False Favorite wasn't so false in the first leg, but this is why I hate weather reports...its said clear..I get home they are racing on a sloppy track..WTF.

Ohh well. The 2nd leg produced a nice price $30 winner, but I didn't have him so it didn't really matter. All bets are dead going into final leg, so who cares....LOL

[BGboothA]

I will update stats this afternoon...

Here are the FF for 03/12/2014

[BGboothA]

False Favorites Statistics through 03/11/2015

FF Win % = 23.08%
FF Show % = 47.69%
Avg. Win $ = $15.61

[BGboothA]

Huge FF list today, going to be fun....wish I had the day off work, something is up with OPX today, races 3-8 found the board as false favorites....

Good luck out there

FF report for 03/15/2015

[BGboothA]

Happy Pi Day!!!!!

Here are the FF for Saturday March 14th!

[jaxsonguy]

New here....these false favorites. Does this mean stay away from them?

[BGboothA]

Ahh, man it looks like it isn't deleting the old races from the previous day on the report....some of them are the wrong races...

[BGboothA]

New here....these false favorites. Does this mean stay away from them?

Exactly, although I use them to find races that I want to play, just not play on the favorite.

[Madison]

Happy Pi Day!!!!!

Here are the FF for Saturday March 14th!

[ATTACH]79435[/ATTACH]

Thanks BGA. Won't have a chance to sit down til later.

[BGboothA]

03/15/15