how would you guys break down this race?

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  • chaka
    SBR Sharp
    • 12-29-09
    • 437

    #71
    Saratoga Valley next start Fri Jan 23

    Saratoga Valley will face a field of 8 on Friday going a mile dirt at Laurel
    Lil Zila looks to be the fav dropping from 12,500 N2L 4th place beaten 20 lengths but had troubled start at Aqueduct. Broke maiden 2 starts back at 25k mdn

    So Help me Hannah and Saratoga are first starts after breaking maiden
    Hannah been in money 8 of 13 starts and 6 of 8 on dirt and a 7 -1-1-3 line at laurel

    Saratoga is 5 -1-2-1 at laurel all on dirt and in money 5 of 6 since dropping to her competitive maiden level

    a few other in this race finished behind "Senorita Sangoria" who broke maiden beating Saratoga 1/2 length Nov 29
    including 1 for 7 "toby who" with the one win being in the first start
    1/25 emmy ella 1/17 oreeley 1/33 lana lang Lana has been in money 11x/33s but regressing badly

    also starting is 1/19 raven alexa

    not a strong field so she should be competitive if form continues

    i'll take a crack at guessing odds (first attempt - feel free to offer advice/criticism)
    5/2 lil zilla dropper near lead carrying 124
    4/1 Hannah speed carrying only 110 laurel success
    8/1 toby who another carrying 110
    10/1 lana lang based on ITM %
    12/1 Saratoga recent win/ 6 race form carrying 124 like a couple others
    18/1 alexa weakened last 3
    20/1 oreeley non factor last few
    25/1 emmy declining odds at this level 4/1, 30/1, 75/1 ran close to senorita 3 back so might use in 3rd

    I might be totally far off but got to start somewhere
    cant wait til Friday just hope she runs competitive
    Attached Files
    Comment
    • harthebar
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 12-09-11
      • 15708

      #72
      Is this horse a follow up. . Why this horse....it seems you are or were waiting for him /her to run....what did you like or at first......you just dont pick this race.for no reason...right...
      Comment
      • chaka
        SBR Sharp
        • 12-29-09
        • 437

        #73
        Originally posted by harthebar
        Is this horse a follow up. . Why this horse....it seems you are or were waiting for him /her to run....what did you like or at first......you just dont pick this race.for no reason...right...
        Right i didnt pick the race
        i'm involved in syndicate partnership
        I invested 6% in this horse prior to any training with the expectations she would run for the large ny bred purses... She did ,but unfortunately couldnt compete at belmont n saratoga 60k msw
        So im just rolling with what i have- with this horse its a low level dirt mile claimer

        The fact its a low level claimer didnt dampen the excitement from her maiden win. Once the gate opens a race is a race regardless of level. Still share 100% of the fun but with only 6% of income/ expenses

        Im trying to learn the game not just from a wagering perspective, enjoying the experience w /o breaking the bank
        Its been a blast so far -as i am sure other sbr forum members who've owned can attest

        All that aside, what would you set their morning line odds at ?
        I understand the experienced players think it would be waste of their time but for newer players we need practice making lines

        All these books say " you need to make a line to create value" not one ive seen shows you how to create such a line. Compounding the issue is we have never heard of- much less seen the horses we are supposed to make a line on.
        Comment
        • harthebar
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 12-09-11
          • 15708

          #74
          i think your horse is a wild card, only because of his last 2 races......then they will look down further and see those other races , i think your horse will be better odds than you think...its hard other than the top two...and giving it some time ......well hope your guy wins and good luck with her



          lil zilla 9/5

          Hannah 5/2
          Saratoga 6-1

          toby who8-1
          lana lang 10-1
          alexa 10-1


          oreeley 20-1





          emmy 30-1
          Comment
          • JBEX
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 01-02-12
            • 23423

            #75
            I think lil zilla will be odds on in here and is probably well meant.If she goes off 2-1 or higher something wrong with her IMO. Your horse loves the trip and is spotted right.. hope she gets it for you!!
            Comment
            • harthebar
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 12-09-11
              • 15708

              #76
              jbex they are my morning lines for the race...you agree
              Comment
              • JBEX
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 01-02-12
                • 23423

                #77
                Originally posted by harthebar
                jbex they are my morning lines for the race...you agree
                Not gonna go over all of them but I think Saratoga will be around what you said.. Don't feel zilla is a fire sale and they just want to spot her right.. As I said at 2-1 or higher to me something not right
                Comment
                • chaka
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 12-29-09
                  • 437

                  #78
                  So you guys dont think the weight disparity is a factor at this level? 14 lbs variance 110 - 124.

                  Im hoping they keep saratoga up like last race about 6-8 back and hope zilla and hannah tire each other out

                  i agree if zilla is more than 2:1 post time i think ill try to beat her and hope he/she finishes off the board.

                  Its happened frequently at these lower levels, the multi class dropping post time fav didnt hit the board. Theyve won a couple but off the board more often

                  appreciate chiming in guys ..thank you


                  Wager question.. In a trifecta, if u bet 1,2 w/ 1,2 w/ all do you get charged for the 1&2 in 3rd spot(which is wasted money as they must finish 1st n 2nd) or does the computer recognize the wager and charge for all but 1&2?
                  If they charge you , this dead money would add up over time , wouldnt it?
                  Comment
                  • JBEX
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 01-02-12
                    • 23423

                    #79
                    I don't use weight.. not saying it's unimportant but just not something I factor in

                    think zilla will be sent aggressively for the lead and if hannah out hustles her she'll just sit off her. always a chance they will knock heads which would benefit you of course.. their used to be a mechanical angle I followed that applies to your horse (20+ years ago). horse wins by 3 or less lengths and total lengths apart from 1st to 3rd is 9 lengths or more. The idea was it camouflages a real good effort by the winner ad most folks don't look at the separation between 2nd and 3rd. Gives you value on your horse and may be indicative of a better than it looks win

                    basically with the combos you showed in those triples you are playing an exacta box plus six horses behind in third or 12 combinations. the 1st and 2nd horse can't come in 3rd or you lose so they won't show up on your ticket I believe
                    Comment
                    • harthebar
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 12-09-11
                      • 15708

                      #80
                      you got a ..group sale on the horse i take it...or do you know the owner personally ? what do you think your chance are with the horse ? do the discuss that with you at all.....
                      Comment
                      • chaka
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 12-29-09
                        • 437

                        #81
                        Yes a group sale.
                        After viewing the "racehorse" series on arlington park web site, those featured all said owning was great fun. So i went to ownerview.com and sifted thru the list of syndicates and results & info on each stable. Checked out some sites and made a few calls

                        i decided on a smaller stable near arlingron park where i had begun playing as an online weekend player -Dare To Dream Stable.
                        They have a "become a partner" page listing their offerings.currently there are a couple if you want to see how they list offers.
                        each horse is its own llc and its a snap to sign papers and mail in funds
                        I met the owners/managers once when i went to arlington. They are quick to reply to email or return phone calls. They know more than i so i let them do their job.

                        We get email updates on workouts and race entries and post race followups. For this next race the managers feel its a good spot for her with a clean trip as they feel its a manageable field

                        Their web site is admittedly substandard but apparently being redone.

                        West point thoroughbreds has the nicest site by far- though their markups and monthly management fees ($500 per month to manage horse???)were too rich for my blood
                        west point races in higher levels but the upfront investment is much more

                        Drawing away stable has a different type of,setup ..ill save pros and cons for another day
                        Comment
                        • chaka
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 12-29-09
                          • 437

                          #82
                          Originally posted by harthebar
                          i think your horse is a wild card, only because of his last 2 races......then they will look down further and see those other races , i think your horse will be better odds than you think...its hard other than the top two...and giving it some time ......well hope your guy wins and good luck with her



                          lil zilla 9/5

                          Hannah 5/2
                          Saratoga 6-1

                          toby who8-1
                          lana lang 10-1
                          alexa 10-1


                          oreeley 20-1





                          emmy 30-1
                          Morning line out.....8-4-2-3
                          #8 zilla 6/5
                          #4 toby who 4/1
                          #2 saratoga 9/2
                          #3 help me hannah 9/2
                          #7 raven alexa 8/1.
                          #1 Lana lang 15/1
                          #5 Emmy ella 15/1 and
                          #6 o reeley 20/1

                          ok when i made my line i made totals add up to 100. Their line adds up to ~ 72

                          i dont understand why alexa would drop from 15/1 last race to 8/1 other than she has 5 shows in 19 starts
                          but a jan 17 4 f work was :54 .. Guess theres jockey change too and i am comparing ML vs last post odds

                          Doesnt make sense -last 4 starts 3rd 3rd 5th &5 th but finishing further back each race and odds dropping

                          what am i missing? I guess it fits the 5th best odds for race which matches her finishes i was expecting to see 15/1+
                          Comment
                          • str
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 01-12-09
                            • 11752

                            #83
                            Originally posted by chaka
                            Morning line out.....8-4-2-3
                            #8 zilla 6/5
                            #4 toby who 4/1
                            #2 saratoga 9/2
                            #3 help me hannah 9/2
                            #7 raven alexa 8/1.
                            #1 Lana lang 15/1
                            #5 Emmy ella 15/1 and
                            #6 o reeley 20/1

                            ok when i made my line i made totals add up to 100. Their line adds up to ~ 72

                            i dont understand why alexa would drop from 15/1 last race to 8/1 other than she has 5 shows in 19 starts
                            but a jan 17 4 f work was :54 .. Guess theres jockey change too and i am comparing ML vs last post odds

                            Doesnt make sense -last 4 starts 3rd 3rd 5th &5 th but finishing further back each race and odds dropping

                            what am i missing? I guess it fits the 5th best odds for race which matches her finishes i was expecting to see 15/1+
                            Does anyone know who sets the morning line in Md. these days?
                            Comment
                            • chaka
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 12-29-09
                              • 437

                              #84
                              Equibase chart caller Keith Feustle, who has co-hosted the "Today At The Races" prerace show on the Maryland simulcast signal with track announcer Dave Rodman since fall 2011, will take over Carulli's morning line duties beginning with the Laurel fall meet in September.

                              from march 2013 only article I could find
                              Comment
                              • cutchemist42
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 04-08-12
                                • 737

                                #85
                                Laurel cancelled today
                                Comment
                                • harthebar
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 12-09-11
                                  • 15708

                                  #86
                                  after this long week, i was really looking forward to watching...or watching the replay..and they cancelled ..why...nice weather in jersey south jersey
                                  Comment
                                  • chaka
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 12-29-09
                                    • 437

                                    #87
                                    Originally posted by harthebar
                                    after this long week, i was really looking forward to watching...or watching the replay..and they cancelled ..why...nice weather in jersey south jersey
                                    I hear ya ...felt same now who knows when race used back

                                    On a positive note this morning i got couple pics of my yearling whos two now. Ill post later
                                    Its amazing how they fill out so quick
                                    Eclipse originally expected late summer first start but theres a chance end april
                                    Comment
                                    • str
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 01-12-09
                                      • 11752

                                      #88
                                      Originally posted by chaka
                                      Equibase chart caller Keith Feustle, who has co-hosted the "Today At The Races" prerace show on the Maryland simulcast signal with track announcer Dave Rodman since fall 2011, will take over Carulli's morning line duties beginning with the Laurel fall meet in September.

                                      from march 2013 only article I could find
                                      I Don't know him.
                                      Comment
                                      • chaka
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 12-29-09
                                        • 437

                                        #89
                                        new pics of "No Lie"

                                        son of Tizway "No Lie"
                                        summer 2014
                                        Click image for larger version

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                                        jan 2015
                                        Click image for larger version

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                                        here is a link to a under tack video for 3yo "The Second Burst" who we hope to see get her first run at Oaklawn this spring


                                        i'm the smallest % invested in each..6% & 4% respectively . I don't golf or play softball anymore so i found a new hobby


                                        str,
                                        can you point to the conformation flaws you saw with No Lie.. the rear left leg is too straight is one i bet. Please shoot me straight only way i can learn what to look for in the future. thank you
                                        Comment
                                        • str
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 01-12-09
                                          • 11752

                                          #90
                                          Originally posted by chaka
                                          son of Tizway "No Lie"
                                          summer 2014
                                          [ATTACH]77515[/ATTACH]

                                          jan 2015
                                          [ATTACH]77517[/ATTACH]


                                          here is a link to a under tack video for 3yo "The Second Burst" who we hope to see get her first run at Oaklawn this spring


                                          i'm the smallest % invested in each..6% & 4% respectively . I don't golf or play softball anymore so i found a new hobby


                                          str,
                                          can you point to the conformation flaws you saw with No Lie.. the rear left leg is too straight is one i bet. Please shoot me straight only way i can learn what to look for in the future. thank you
                                          The side view shows all the body and the horse is indeed filling out very well. The hind leg is because the foot is further back than the other one so it looks straight. Hind leg is fine.

                                          No need to worry about conformation as that is the trainers job and most horses have a flaw or two. If not, they are unaffordable and can still hurt themselves anytime, anywhere.

                                          It looks as if the horse is a bit back at the knee, meaning, the front leg has a banana shape with the knee being set back a bit. Bad news, these types can have knee problems. Good news, they are usually runners and horses that try hard.Not sure why, but they do.
                                          Without a front view I cannot see if the horses is crooked , like toes in ( pigeon toed)or out, (toes pointing at 11 and 1 on the dial ).
                                          It really only matters to a certain extent. Remember this, there was a crooked footed horse that most people avoided because he was so crooked at the yearling sale back in the day. Because of that " terrible" conformation flaw, along with being Too big, and immature he only went for 17,500. That horse turned out to be Seattle Slew, so don't worry about conformation. Then there was the horse with a thin neck that looked barely ordinary in the ring that sold for 37,000 who they later named Spectacular Bid. And of course, Canonero II was 1,200 bucks. I could go on and on. None of them are perfect. That's just the pessimistic trainer in me coming out. Lol.
                                          Hopefully we get a nice front view sometime down the road so we can see what those front legs that will need to support all that body look like. He might toe out a bit, but I just can't tell and it really is not a knock, just an observation.

                                          In my day I would get some in that looked like Gumby's horse, Pokie. Like a pencil on toothpicks, and they won, so it's all good. If all those that I got in looked like that, it would have made life a lot easier.

                                          Take care.
                                          Last edited by str; 01-25-15, 08:55 AM.
                                          Comment
                                          • chaka
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 12-29-09
                                            • 437

                                            #91
                                            ill ask if they have a straight on shot
                                            Comment
                                            • chaka
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 12-29-09
                                              • 437

                                              #92
                                              Ok. No head on shots currently for "No Lie" Aron wellman from Eclipse thoroughbreds agreed his legs are on the small side for his body now but he's shedding the baby fat and filling out nicely, pleased with progress to date however long way to go



                                              saratoga valley entered sunday race 5 at laurel 7 f dirt. Little,different field,with many new faces though "so help me hannah" may wire this field.
                                              Saratoga draws the rail in 10 horse field. Ill post the field pp's tomorrow.
                                              Couple of the outside horses had troubled starts last time out so might be able to get a price

                                              sad thing is now that she won, the claim price drops $2500 from $7500 to 5k$


                                              Jeffie, i received the winners pic finally..whoo hoo... One thing missing - me. LoL
                                              Cant wait to be there when one of the horses wins..
                                              Comment
                                              • chaka
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 12-29-09
                                                • 437

                                                #93
                                                Holy penetrate you guys
                                                i cannot believe what i just saw in saratogas race. Ill post the video as soon as its up
                                                Comment
                                                • chaka
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 12-29-09
                                                  • 437

                                                  #94


                                                  Unbelievable. Saratoga is #1 horse

                                                  gotta admit had no faith when she's not in the screen and the announcer describes it something to the effect of ...'with 3/8 to go one more weeellllll back of the pack , saratoga valley loping along a good 17 lengths back of the 23 4/5 pace'
                                                  Last edited by chaka; 02-08-15, 03:52 PM.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • chaka
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 12-29-09
                                                    • 437

                                                    #95
                                                    Saratoga valley finally getting a shot for 3rd win in a row tomorrow at laurel race 10
                                                    nw3 5k claimer
                                                    Comment
                                                    • chaka
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 12-29-09
                                                      • 437

                                                      #96
                                                      another weather delay
                                                      Comment
                                                      • cutchemist42
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 04-08-12
                                                        • 737

                                                        #97
                                                        Damn, just saw the last race, big closing effort. Visually, I like the last race and would like him in the next moving up to n3L. Keep us posted!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • chaka
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 12-29-09
                                                          • 437

                                                          #98
                                                          Saratoga entered for sunday at a mile laurel lark race 4. Per laurel park web site
                                                          saratoga is 8-1 ML. Behind a 1-1, 5-1 and a pair of 6-1
                                                          8 horse field
                                                          Comment
                                                          • chaka
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 12-29-09
                                                            • 437

                                                            #99
                                                            Cancelled again due to weather
                                                            Comment
                                                            • str
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 01-12-09
                                                              • 11752

                                                              #100
                                                              Originally posted by chaka
                                                              Cancelled again due to weather
                                                              That's just sad. Sunny and 50 . Roads are perfect.
                                                              They are just not trying. No way the surface is a problem.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • chaka
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 12-29-09
                                                                • 437

                                                                #101
                                                                Saratoga entered again for tomorrow same field as previously cancelled race
                                                                Comment
                                                                • chaka
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 12-29-09
                                                                  • 437

                                                                  #102
                                                                  Well that sucked. ..valley was up near lead about 2 lengths back at 1/2 mile then lost front right shoe and immediately dropped out of race
                                                                  2 of last 5 or 6 races shes lost a shoe and the manager believes she hits herself at times resulting in lost shoes..personally ,as an owner (albeit minority), there should be a solution as its one thing to finish last being not as good but to finish last due to being unable to compete with equipment issues is very frustrating..especially after all the weather delays


                                                                  then post race we learned she was claimed. Great experience including 4 exciting finishes in 11 races..and a couple win photos to boot.

                                                                  on to the next horse: "The Second Burst" shes a 3 yr old filly hoping to make first start in next few weeks. Currently at oaklawn training but weather has been issue affecting race days and training..
                                                                  Unsure what level she will race at this time
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • cutchemist42
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 04-08-12
                                                                    • 737

                                                                    #103
                                                                    Originally posted by chaka
                                                                    Well that sucked. ..valley was up near lead about 2 lengths back at 1/2 mile then lost front right shoe and immediately dropped out of race
                                                                    2 of last 5 or 6 races shes lost a shoe and the manager believes she hits herself at times resulting in lost shoes..personally ,as an owner (albeit minority), there should be a solution as its one thing to finish last being not as good but to finish last due to being unable to compete with equipment issues is very frustrating..especially after all the weather delays


                                                                    then post race we learned she was claimed. Great experience including 4 exciting finishes in 11 races..and a couple win photos to boot.

                                                                    on to the next horse: "The Second Burst" shes a 3 yr old filly hoping to make first start in next few weeks. Currently at oaklawn training but weather has been issue affecting race days and training..
                                                                    Unsure what level she will race at this time
                                                                    This was a fun thread to follow along with, I hope you keep doing these in the future!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • chaka
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 12-29-09
                                                                      • 437

                                                                      #104
                                                                      Originally posted by cutchemist42
                                                                      This was a fun thread to follow along with, I hope you keep doing these in the future!
                                                                      Thanks chem thats the plan..win,lose, or,last. Raw and unvarnished

                                                                      Hopefully weather will start cooperating and races come more timely.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • chaka
                                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                                        • 12-29-09
                                                                        • 437

                                                                        #105
                                                                        Hoping to see first start of The Second Burst in the next couple weeks..managers havent disclosed level as of yet at Oaklawn
                                                                        Comment
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