Can math pick NHL winners

[agendaman]

c/o winning doc/couple of things/ i have a msc. adv. degree in math./trust this ok if there were workable formulae for gambling someone would have found them alresdy prob. the casinos and bookies/next you need a much larger sample size /it is all probability and statistics/next that guys thread above is correct/betting heavy wood on hockey gets you on welfare and food stamps/finally just this i won last wks. sbr nhl. contest w/a 22-5 record/at present i lead this wks. nhl contest w/a 15-4-1 record/how true story i take all teams getting 1.5 goals for each game/follow this stat and see/good as any so far/gl now

[Cicima6709]

Cicima6709, are you talking about 3-way lines (final score in regulation?) I actually was using the formula instead of the money line, but that ended up at -4.3 units for the same games, which surprised me. That's why I was trying money line only, but still tracking the 3-way lines.

No, i am talking about prop bets. If you want to use math, try your luck with props. They are mostly math bets and very beatable.

Iv realized that it is VERY hard to beat a big market like the NHL on a long term basis. Yes, its do-able, but you wont win much. If you look into smaller markets (such as props), the lines are a lot softer. In the NHL, when you get a team at -130 and then they move to -140, you think you just got a sick line. With some props i bet on, i get lines at -115 that can close at -230.

When i say props, i mean player matchups, player A to score a goal or get a point, stuff like that. It can all be traced back to math, and is ridiculously profitable. I'v tried my luck in picking NHL MLs, and I can profit, but it isnt much. You can maybe get a 10pt edge on some lines if you shop around, and thats just not enough for me. With props, over the last month my average line iv gotten is -159 but my winning % is 75%. Thats a much bigger edge then you'll ever get betting big market bets.

So if you want to use math, look into those type of bets.

[PuckIt]

No, i am talking about prop bets. If you want to use math, try your luck with props. They are mostly math bets and very beatable.

Iv realized that it is VERY hard to beat a big market like the NHL on a long term basis. Yes, its do-able, but you wont win much. If you look into smaller markets (such as props), the lines are a lot softer. In the NHL, when you get a team at -130 and then they move to -140, you think you just got a sick line. With some props i bet on, i get lines at -115 that can close at -230.

When i say props, i mean player matchups, player A to score a goal or get a point, stuff like that. It can all be traced back to math, and is ridiculously profitable. I'v tried my luck in picking NHL MLs, and I can profit, but it isnt much. You can maybe get a 10pt edge on some lines if you shop around, and thats just not enough for me. With props, over the last month my average line iv gotten is -159 but my winning % is 75%. Thats a much bigger edge then you'll ever get betting big market bets.

So if you want to use math, look into those type of bets.

Really? Happen to know where I can get player-specific stats? My data is based on a team-level. I would think that the more stats you have, the more likely you are to get an accurate average. Thus if you have stats for all players and compare them to how the team does as a whole, I would think it would be a more representative figure than betting on how one player will do in a game.

I could see maybe playing the total shots per team prop, but I feel like the individual player props are quite a gamble. Maybe i'm wrong though...I've been making good money on small parlays and over/under bets with some data I have put together, so i'll stick to that!

[Cicima6709]

Really? Happen to know where I can get player-specific stats? My data is based on a team-level. I would think that the more stats you have, the more likely you are to get an accurate average. Thus if you have stats for all players and compare them to how the team does as a whole, I would think it would be a more representative figure than betting on how one player will do in a game.

I could see maybe playing the total shots per team prop, but I feel like the individual player props are quite a gamble. Maybe i'm wrong though...I've been making good money on small parlays and over/under bets with some data I have put together, so i'll stick to that!

What do you mean by player-specific stats? I just use sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players and get my player stats from there, and import them into excel and then run my calculations.

As for individual player props, personally i think its the easiest way to make money. Betting on teams is tough, the lines are sharp, and a bunch of players control the outcome. When you bet on a player vs player, or any player bets, its usually just one or two guys controlling the outcome, and if you know how moneylines relate to %, you can really find some horrible lines. Iv been getting bets that i think should be -300 at lines such as -130. But everyone is different, whatever you can profit in, go for that.

[PuckIt]

What do you mean by player-specific stats? I just use sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players and get my player stats from there, and import them into excel and then run my calculations.

As for individual player props, personally i think its the easiest way to make money. Betting on teams is tough, the lines are sharp, and a bunch of players control the outcome. When you bet on a player vs player, or any player bets, its usually just one or two guys controlling the outcome, and if you know how moneylines relate to %, you can really find some horrible lines. Iv been getting bets that i think should be -300 at lines such as -130. But everyone is different, whatever you can profit in, go for that.

The lines are definitely more lax I agree with you there. I may have to start fishing around in the props a bit more. Thanks for the tip!

[H1Cypher]

No, i am talking about prop bets. If you want to use math, try your luck with props. They are mostly math bets and very beatable.

Iv realized that it is VERY hard to beat a big market like the NHL on a long term basis. Yes, its do-able, but you wont win much. If you look into smaller markets (such as props), the lines are a lot softer. In the NHL, when you get a team at -130 and then they move to -140, you think you just got a sick line. With some props i bet on, i get lines at -115 that can close at -230.

When i say props, i mean player matchups, player A to score a goal or get a point, stuff like that. It can all be traced back to math, and is ridiculously profitable. I'v tried my luck in picking NHL MLs, and I can profit, but it isnt much. You can maybe get a 10pt edge on some lines if you shop around, and thats just not enough for me. With props, over the last month my average line iv gotten is -159 but my winning % is 75%. Thats a much bigger edge then you'll ever get betting big market bets.

So if you want to use math, look into those type of bets.

Which online american bookmaker offer continuous player props? Would like to hop on 1, which one you using?

[Cicima6709]

Betislands, 5dimes during playoffs, and bodog has a ton of props