My NHL Picks

Cicima6709 · 11-05-11, 02:51 PM

Sorry, edited a typo. I locked in the Jets, not the Oilers. As for the other lines, ill probably lock them in soon-ish, but it appears that the public is currently betting the favorites, so im hoping the lines move in my favor just a bit more before i hit them!

eric14tsui · 11-05-11, 03:30 PM

Thank you, cicima. Good to have a solid thread for all the followers. What did you see on the Jets' line?

Cicima6709 · 11-05-11, 03:51 PM

Looks like the Jets got pounded early...Brodeur has proven to be very shaky this year, who knows, he might still be injured. And Kovalchuk/Greene are out today for the Devils, which will help us a lot.

RAVENSFAN · 11-05-11, 04:11 PM

What u think about the leafs on hockey night in Canada at home?

Cicima6709 · 11-05-11, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by RAVENSFAN

What u think about the leafs on hockey night in Canada at home?

Not really sure on that game. Im not sold on Scrivens as the goalie, so i could see Boston winning this one. Really a 50/50 game, i dont see an advantage either way in this game tbh. Thats why im leaving it out tonight.

Brist66 · 11-05-11, 04:20 PM

Like the picks, Nash is my favorite bet with Rinne playing lights out. Seems like a 50/50 game with the best value.

eric14tsui · 11-05-11, 04:27 PM

Originally posted by Cicima6709

Looks like the Jets got pounded early...Brodeur has proven to be very shaky this year, who knows, he might still be injured. And Kovalchuk/Greene are out today for the Devils, which will help us a lot.

Thanks!

Optional · 11-05-11, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by Brist66

Like the picks, Nash is my favorite bet with Rinne playing lights out. Seems like a 50/50 game with the best value.

^^^ this.

Cicima6709 · 11-05-11, 05:05 PM

Placed the bets for all the picks, i like where the prices are now. Good luck guys! Lets hope for another profitable day.

jas19illini · 11-05-11, 06:21 PM

I like what you do Cicima, keep up the good work. I'll be visiting this thread often this season.. BOL tonight everyone!

dontbuythehook · 11-05-11, 09:00 PM

1-3 so far

jas19illini · 11-05-11, 10:55 PM

^^^douche

Cicima6709 · 11-06-11, 12:31 AM

3-4 tonight, -0.15 units. Disappointing, i really liked the card tonight, was surprised at the horrible early results. Def. got bailed out with the Pens and Nash hitting, especially the +150.

Updated Record:
Posted: 13-8, for +7.01 units. Putting my yearly total to 46-31 at 22.35 units.

Cya tomorrow guys! Hope you guys either made profit or barely lost much! Btw, lol at the hater.

jas19illini · 11-06-11, 11:17 AM

not an awful night. today you'll bounce back. looking forward to the picks.

jas19illini · 11-06-11, 11:20 AM

Sadly, i think Vancouver deals my Hawks their first home loss tonight. Cant bring myself to bet on it though.

Cicima6709 · 11-06-11, 12:36 PM

Yea, i am not too sure on todays card. Have a few leans, but have to look further into it before i make any plays. Waiting on a couple goalie confirmations too.

VAN/CHI is a tough game. Obv VAN at like +120 is great value at any time, but their struggling recently, this will be a tough game for them. Not sure yet if i want to touch that game, itl be a good/tough one.

jas19illini · 11-06-11, 12:38 PM

Originally posted by Cicima6709

Yea, i am not too sure on todays card. Have a few leans, but have to look further into it before i make any plays. Waiting on a couple goalie confirmations too.

VAN/CHI is a tough game. Obv VAN at like +120 is great value at any time, but their struggling recently, this will be a tough game for them. Not sure yet if i want to touch that game, itl be a good/tough one.

The over in the CHI game might be the better play. CHI likes to score goals at home, and with VAN struggling, could be a good combo.

Cicima6709 · 11-06-11, 04:48 PM

Jets +165 *Locked In*

Biron is the starter for the Rangers, so i am really like this value. I expect the line to start dropping now that news of Biron came out.

Brist66 · 11-06-11, 04:54 PM

Like the value here as well, good luck tonight

jas19illini · 11-07-11, 08:29 AM

Looks like my read on the Blackhawks was right on both accounts. I actually ended up going to that game last night and good lord the Hawks looked awful. Outplayed in EVERY aspect last night. They didnt do a single thing right. I think the Hawks are good enough to right their wrongs before their next game, so I wouldnt fade them, but it might not be a bad idea to jump on the Vancouver bandwagon for a game or two bc they looked really solid last night.

Cicima6709 · 11-07-11, 09:46 AM

Yea, NHL was frustrating yesterday. My leans were all 5 road dogs again, just like the day before. But i didnt wanna have a card with all road dogs, so i just focused on NFL (did really well, but thats not the point)...and just took Jets. Figures id go 0-1, while my leans go 4-0. Oh well, one of those days.

Updated Record:
Posted: 13-9, for +6.01 units. Putting my yearly total to 46-32 at 21.35 units.

Yesterday i did like the Canucks, but i thought theyd win in a close game. Cant believe it was such a blowout.

TGMILL04 · 11-07-11, 01:28 PM

Solid totals, Cici. Any plays today?

Cicima6709 · 11-07-11, 02:44 PM

I think im going to take the night off, focus on some NFL props.

BOS will probably win today, but the line is too high to bet on them for sure. Not sure on the Kings game either. Line is pretty accurate, with Sharks being the slight favor. Sharks own Quick, and the Kings cant score lately. So in that sense, i like SJ, but at the same time, LA has a great team and is very capable of scoring a lot of goals, along with getting a shutout from Quick. So really, another no play for me. There are better/more games during the rest of the week that i like more.

Gonna spend some time analyzing the stats on how iv done based on line movement and if there are any advantages somewhere. For instance, iv noticed that i am 17-6 for 10.87 units on home teams, but 29-27 for 9.53 units on road teams. So i like the trend of being able to pick out home winners in a market that is seeing 50/50 wins at best. Going to look into if various games do better with more movement or vise versa.

TGMILL04 · 11-07-11, 03:10 PM

Thanks man, I appreciate the write up. I'll be following your NHL picks throughout the year, hopefully the success continues. Speaking of football, I had my ass handed to me in football this weekend. Do u also have an NFL/college thread?

Cicima6709 · 11-07-11, 04:28 PM

Nah not really. Heh, id get my ass handed to me if i played NFL sides/totals. Those are too sharp, idk how people beat the NFL, i certainly cant.

For NFL i just bet props. If you just do some simple math and look at what the prices of props should really be, you can easily find very wrong lines. The prop market is pretty small, so books dont spend much time trying to figure out accurate lines, especially since most props have a limit to them. So if you bet early, you can usually hop on a line before it moves up to 30-50 pts. You can get some really good value betting them, whereas pretty much all the spreads are 50/50. Atleast to me.

RAVENSFAN · 11-07-11, 05:33 PM

Let's hear ur prop picks lol. Pm me them or post em here for fun tonight. We all bounce between forums anyways lol

btd · 11-07-11, 05:57 PM

I also would be interested, a prop bet win is just as good as a side win.

Cicima6709 · 11-07-11, 07:33 PM

Hmm, well yesterday i hit a 7 unit play on Hines Ward under 3 receptions. Normally i dont bet more then a 1 unit, it was my biggest play of the year. Had to bet it because before the game, word around town was Ward was getting 15-20 plays in the entire game. He finished with 0 catches

Today i have two prop plays, both half a unit. Eagles 1st downs -2.5, and a punt in this game of 52 yards or greater. Both are -130 i believe.

Cicima6709 · 11-07-11, 08:07 PM

This is what i was talkin about with getting good value on the props.

PHI -2.5 first downs is now -170 on 5dimes. Beat the line by 40 points as of now.

Cicima6709 · 11-07-11, 11:57 PM

Damn, sorry guys, 0-2 in nfl. Game just went horrible, with Eagles scoring TDs on big plays and the Bears driving all day long. Did not expect the Eagles offense and defense to play that badly. Was relying on the Bears punter getting some punts in, but unfortunately he didnt really have to.

Cicima6709 · 11-08-11, 12:59 AM

Going to have a big card tomorrow...i see a lot of value.

TGMILL04 · 11-08-11, 01:25 AM

Looking forward to your picks!

xelemental · 11-08-11, 01:36 AM

please post your plays before I go to work. meeting all day tomorrow ;(

Cicima6709 · 11-08-11, 11:59 AM

Good looking card today, lots to choose from.

NAS +100 *Locked in*
MIN +125
CAR +110
DAL +145
WPG +188

Those are my plays today. NASH is the only one i locked in, and i got them at +100. Expected the line to keep plummeting, but it did not. So they can now be had at around +115. Gonna see if i can get some line movement in my direction on the other plays, if not, ill lock them in. I like the value on all 5 of those games. Lots of 50/50 games, and i can see the Jets stealing one in Buf too.

Lol, that all day meeting doesnt sound fun. What do you do for your job? Anyways, hope you get to see the plays before your meeting!