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Usually El Captain runs the JM NHL. I gave up on that. Had one good year with it, then one terrible year and another so-so. I like performance based systems rather than just betting on a team because of where they are playing. I realize I do it with JM NBA, but the odds are a lot shorter in NBA, so losses aren't as devastating.Comment -
Here is the JM NHL, as you see you are already in the JM thread Knugen, but for others interested.
Good Luck this year Wallco. Hopefully off to a better start than last year. I was a bit of a pessimist when I joined this system last year and off to a ugly start i jumped off the ship. This year I am hoping to stay on it through out the season. Just hoping for a little cushion in the beginning and keeping the same unit size throughout.
Gold, chase110, JM NHL, and JM NBA will be the four I am follow.
I seen home game stand, but I do not think it has been back tested, so will just keep an eye on that. Any others you recommend wallco? Most others do not have back tested results, so i am a bit skeptical.
Good luck to us all.Comment -
The last two years the start of the season has been rough before the system takes off. I'm betting half units for the first few weeks. Probebly pulling the plug early also as the landing has always been hard.Comment -
Can't cut 20 in half? I can cut a dollar in half. LOL Not November. Just until that first shot across the bow goes buy. More of a feeling.Comment -
Looking forward to another year!
Two notes on how I'm playing this:
1.) I'm playing a 3-7-10 betting strategy this year. Bet 3 units on the A game, 7 on the B game, and 10 on the C game. You take a slight loss if the series goes to a C game, but I'm hoping the added units won on the A-B games will make up for it. You also set a series loss to 20 units total. I haven't backtested it yet, but I did a similar strategy in baseball with much success.
2.) I'm following the JM NHL, NBA, and Chase 110 using this strategy, as they're all 3 game chases. However, I'm only tailing teams with a winning percentage of greater than .530 and fading teams with a record of .470 or lower. I'm doing this to avoid having too many chases going on at once, and I've seen baseball systems that use similar filters with lots of success.
Ill update on how this works from time-to-time if you guys want. BOL everyone.Comment -
Couple of things which have been discussed before. I am not sure if you are applying the .530 filter to NBA or just NHL and MLB. If you apply it to NBA, you are missing out on a lot of action as majority of the plays will be dogs. Also note dogs tend to cover just as much as favorites if not more, but it is pretty much 50/50. Also realize, chase110 takes ML on favorites. Also majority of the plays will not fit into that filter since its based on losing streaks. One last thing, as a series progresses so does the win rate. A-Bets have a losing history when flat betting straight up, so 3 units might be a lot to risk on them. Your system will show a profit long run as 1-3-5 is based on similar technique.
Good Luck to you sir.
PS
Might want to add the home favorite system for NHL as well. Was backtested by Rizz and is profitable. Just apply -130 or higher favorite for the (a) game to start the series.Comment -
My Chase 110 is a four game chase. I will try to test last seson to see how this would have worked for NHL Gold. Keep in mind, a lot more hockey games end in a one goal difference than baseball does with a one run difference. So the crappy teams can win more games in hockey then they will in baseball, hence the higher odds.Last edited by Wallco99; 10-07-13, 09:05 AM.Comment -
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Actually, after making my last post I thought about something pertaining to the 3-7-10 strategy. If you lose the first game for -3 units and your bet on (B) is for 7 units, you most likely will still lose money on (B). Say the odds on (B) are -270, which is a very common line in NHL for +1 1/2 goals. If you win the (B) bet, you will only recover about 2.59 units, which is .41 units LESS than you lost on (A).
In order to recover 1 unit or more on (B), the odds will have to be -175 or better, which isn't real common for +1 1/2 goal bets. The break even point would be odds of -233. It could work for closer game M/L bets, but this strategy only seems to profit on (A), not (B) or (C). Maybe I'm missing something, and if I am, please let me know, but if not, this strategy doesn't seem very effective. And even on (A), if the line is -270 and you are risking 3 units, your profit will only be about 1.11 units, which is not a lot of "extra units", as you mentioned, to make up for the losses on (B) and (C).
Lines for MLB run line bets are significantly lower than puck line bets in NHL, meaning strategies that were effective in MLB won't necessarily replicate themselves when wagering on NHL games.Last edited by Wallco99; 10-07-13, 09:18 AM.Comment -
Solid point. Again, I'm not sure if this will be any more profitable than a normal chase. I just like the idea.
The guy that inspired this used a 2-5-8-10 strategy in baseball for a four game chase. Although he lost units on C-D games, and lines were sometimes in the -200-250 range, he averaged about 1.2 units per series won, while setting his series loss to 25 units.
I think this system can be profitable a number of ways, as long as you have smart money management. BOLComment -
Also keep in mind multiple series going to C bet at the same time. you could have over 50 units tied up with your system. i would test it for first month of last season to see how it does if i were you. might need set your unit size to .5% instead of 1%.Comment -
After reading through the rules one more time, I thought we had a play tomorrow with Tor fade, but first three games of the season do not count. First play is not really possible for around another week if I am not mistaken.
Wallco clarify?Comment -
New to the forum and psyched to be aboard for the chase. Lightning season ticket holder and huge hockey fan. Thanks Wallco for all the time and effort!Comment -
JM whats up with you always duckin me man? cant help a brother out?Comment -
Vancouver a play against tomorrow?
Hi all,
I'm brand new to this website. This is my first post.
What brought me here was my interest in trying out some hockey betting systems and I came across this thread.
Looking at the rules for V1.. do we have a Vancouver fade tomorrow? They have won 3 games in a row.
Any thoughts would be appreciated...Comment -
Or post one has the rules very clearly. basically skip first 7 games.Comment -
How does one go straight to the last page and ask about rules?
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Got it... Thanks, buddy.Comment -
It's amazing how much work some people are willing to put in, for free.
You my friend are on par with Ken Pomeroy or S1lly of BDS. Mad props!Comment -
Wallco NHL GOLD - backtest for v1and v2 Systems
I in no way guarantee that this season or any other future season will produce the same results as posted below. This is merely a backtest of previous performance, and shows the increase of probability that it will happen again. It doesn’t mean it will. Please do not bet above your means. I am in no way selling anything to anybody, profiting off of their wagers, or twisting their arm to place a bet. I am merely providing information that can easily be verified by doing your own backtest. Everything is laid out here, and there are NO GUARANTEES when it comes to sports wagering.
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V1 backtest
2012-13 (90-3) *Strike shortened season*
A) 63-30
B) 17-13
C) 10-3
Losses: MIN (-18.04), WAS (-23.28), PIT (-22.63)
Total profit: +26.07 units
2011-12 (150-6)
A) 87-69
B) 50-19
C) 13-6
Losses: OTT (-10.96), EDM (-14.96), DET (-22.03), MIN (-15.02), PHO (-9.61), NJ (-26.54)
Total profit: +50.88 units
2010-11 (161-3)
A) 105-59
B) 44-15
C) 12-3
Losses: LAK (-23.8 ), NAS (-26.82), ATL (-17.94)
Total profit: +92.44 units
2009-10 (158-4)
A) 104-58
B) 40-18
C) 14-4
Losses: LAK (-11.82), PHO (-19.70), WAS (-22.83), WAS (-18.20)
Total profit: +85.45 units
2008-09 (150-7)
A) 101-56
B) 37-19
C) 12-7
Losses: BOS (-16.16), CHI (-19.2), CHI (-23.96), DET (-9.89), DET (-20.69), PIT (-16.55), ATL (-20.47)
Total profit: +23.08 units
2007-08 (160-9)
A) 113-56
B) 39-17
C) 8-9
Losses: ANA (-25.01), CAL (-12.35), DAL (-18.5), DET (-20.21), NJ (-27.14), NYI (-12.73), PIT (-21.95),
SJ(-16.13), WAS(-20.8)
Total profit: -14.82 units
2006-07 (156-4)
A) 100-60
B) 39-21
C) 17-4
Losses: CAL (-18.13), CAL (-15.48), NAS (-14.96), PHO (-18.79)
Total profit: +88.64 units
2005-06 (159-7)
A) 108-58
B) 29-29
C) 22-7
Losses: BUF (-14.09), CBS (-32.32), DET (10.54), DET(-18.65), NAS(-28.37), NYR(-14.07), OTT(-11.51)
Total profit: +29.45 units
V1 Grand Total +381.19 units (avg +47.65 units/season)
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V2 backtest
2012-13 (40-3) *Strike shortened season*
A) 25-18
B) 10-8
C) 5-3
Losses: NJ (20.16), CAR (-31.57), FLA (-10.93)
Total profit: -22.66 units
2011-12 (56-2)
A) 40-18
B) 7-11
C) 9-2
Losses: MON (-18.6), DET (-19.51)
Total profit: +17.89 units
2010-11 (86-3)
A) 52-37
B) 25-12
C) 9-3
Losses: COL (-9.85), NJ (-29.58), WAS (-23.64)
Total profit: +22.93 units
2009-10 (79-1)
A) 56-24
B) 12-12
C) 11-1
Losses: EDM (-19.7)
Total profit: +59.3 units
2008-09 (70-1)
A) 48-23
B) 15-8
C) 7-1
Losses: COL (-12.71)
Total profit: +57.29 units
2007-08 (87-4)
A) 52-39
B) 28-11
C) 7-4
Losses: ANA (-25.39), DET (-20.93), NYI (-15.33), OTT (-18.89)
Total profit: +6.46 units
2006-07 (84-2)
A) 59-27
B) 17-10
C) 8-2
Losses: EDM (-23.55), MON (-16.62)
Total profit: +43.83 units
2005-06 (65-6)
A) 40-31
B) 18-13
C) 7-6
Losses: CBS (-14.57), EDM (-20.33), STL (-28.44), STL (-9.20), WAS (-9.10), ATL (-20.14)
Total profit: -40.78 units
V2 Grand Total +144.26 units (avg +18.03 units/season)
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Both systems combined
2012-13 (130-6) *Strike shortened season*
A) 88-48
B) 27-21
C) 15-6
Total profit: +3.41 units
2011-12 (206-8)
A) 127-87
B) 57-30
C) 22-8
Total profit: +68.77 units
2010-11 (247-6)
A) 156-95
B) 68-27
C) 21-6
Total profit: +115.37 units
2009-10 (237-5)
A) 160-82
B) 52-30
C) 25-5
Total profit: +144.75 units
2008-09 (220-8)
A) 149-79
B) 52-27
C) 19-8
Total profit: +80.37 units
2007-08 (247-13)
A) 165-95
B) 67-28
C) 15-13
Total profit: -8.36 units
2006-07 (240-6)
A) 159-87
B) 56-31
C) 25-6
Total profit:+132.47 units
2005-06 (224-13)
A) 148-89
B) 47-42
C) 29-13
Total profit: -11.33 units
Combined Grand Total +525.45 units (avg +65.68 units/season)Last edited by Wallco99; 10-11-13, 09:35 AM.Comment -
Wallco NHL Gold - System Rules
Welcome to NHL GOLD. This system is a three game chase system based on teams winning/losing streaks. It is broken into two versions, Teams who win three games in a row S/U (v1), and teams who lose three games in a row S/U and ATS (v2). Needless to say, since this system is performance based, the chance of having both sides of a game being an official play at the same time does exist, and does happen on occasion. The v1 has been significantly stronger than the v2, but both are profitable long term. When posted, the plays will be listed as “v2” for the plays that correspond to v2. If “v2” is not posted next to the game, assume it as a v1. A description of each system and a back test is listed below.
V1 System (3 wins in a row S/U)
The v1 is based on teams winning streaks. The puck lines don’t matter while qualifying a team to be a play. Look for teams who have won three straight games. Once you find them, you will FADE this team (bet on their opponent) in a three game chase for the next three games. If the team you are betting on is even money, or a favorite on ScoresandOdds.com, play the M/L. If they are a dog, play the P/L. The final lines at ScoresandOdds.com will be used for stats results and for determining M/L or P/L.
If your team wins the first bet (the (A) bet), the series is over. If it loses, you will proceed to a (B) bet, wagering the amount you lost in (A) plus whatever profit you were trying to achieve in (A). If (B) bet loses, your (C) bet will be losses from (A) + (B) + profit. If (C) loses, the series is over and we take a loss. Hockey betting can be one of the most expensive sports to lose a 3 game chase, so adjust your wagers accordingly. Generally a loss is around 20 units, many are lower, and some are larger (could be upwards of 30 units). There are generally 150-170 plays in the v1 system, and from my backtesting I have noticed that it is usually around 9 losses before we take a negative for the season. This has only happened once.
Special Rules for v1:
1) Never count the first THREE games of the season when determining teams winning streaks. Do not start counting team’s wins until their fourth game played. Which means the earliest we will have a play in v1 system will be on a team’s 7th game.
2) Never play a winning streak around the All Star or Olympic breaks unless all three games of the chase are before the break or all three games of the chase are after the break. The winning streak to qualify the teams can span the break, but ALL the actual games we are betting on must all be BEFORE or AFTER the break. E.g.: A team qualifies near the all star break with three wins in a row. The team has two remaining games before the break. This team will NOT be a play because all three of the chase games were not before the break. E.g.: A team qualifies by winning their last two games before the break, and their first game after the break. This will be a play because ALL three chase games will be after the break.
3) If a team has a 6, 9, 12, 15, … game winning streak, there will be multiple plays during that streak. Each three in a row will be a play, so if a team has a 12 game winning streak, there will be four different chases along the way. These chases will never overlap, because the first one will always be concluded by the start of the next one.
4) NEVER START A CHASE IF IT CANNOT BE CONCLUDED. If a team wins three in a row, and does not have at least three remaining games on their schedule, do NOT play the series.
5) The way you play head-head games it at your discretion, but the system will count and play ALL qualified teams, unless they qualify at the same time, and their potential (C) bets will be against each other, we may opt not to play. I will help you recognize these with notes on the updates.
V2 System (3 losses in a row S/U and ATS)
The v2 system is a little different than the v1, the bet structure is the same and we will still be using ScoresandOdds.com, however, there is a little more to it than just losing three straight. Find teams that have lost 3 straight games. Next, make sure these teams have also lost three straight ATS. This means that a favorite or even play will only have to lose the game, but a dog team has to lose by 2 or more goals. This info will be determined from the final lines at ScoresandOdds.com. Once a team qualifies, you will bet on that team to get a WIN in one of their next three games, same three game chase applies. So for the v2, we are betting ON the team, as opposed to the v1 where we are betting AGAINST the team.
Special rules for v2
1) You will use ATS as well as S/U to qualify teams.
2) Never count the first TWO games of the season when determining teams losing streaks. Do not start counting team’s losses until their third game played. Which means the earliest we will have a play in v2 system will be on a team’s 6th game.
3) The All Star and Olympic breaks rule is the same as v1.
4) The losing streaks rule is the same as v1, provided all the games meet the ATS requirement.
5) Never start a chase if it cannot be concluded.
6) Head to head games it at your discretion, but all games will count in system..
The v2 has significantly less plays than the v1, mainly because of the ATS requirement. It will take less losses than the v1 to be negative for the season. This has only happened once so far, 6 losses for a net of (-40 units). The same year the v1 was +29, so the overall effect was (-11 units). The v1 has only had one losing season (-18 units) but that was also the year that v2 only did +6 units. The other years, the two in combination did phenomenally well. If you were to pick one over the other, I would go with the v1. But it seems that even the years that one happens to lose, the other one picks it up some. The years that both teams win, they win big. Below is a backtest through the 2005-06 season. I have listed them separately and combined, so you can see how they did on their own and together. The results are accurate and can be checked by anyone.Last edited by Wallco99; 10-11-13, 09:38 AM.Comment -
Looking forward to a golden season. Wallco you are the man.Comment -
Good luck this year guys.Comment -
Hey El Niño if you don't mind me asking what was your starting bankrollComment
