How heavy do teams get favored for NHL games? (moneyline)

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  • sanchez
    SBR High Roller
    • 02-02-11
    • 223

    #1
    How heavy do teams get favored for NHL games? (moneyline)
    How heavy do teams get favored for NHL games? (moneyline) I watch a lot of hockey but I don't bet on it that much. I'm guessing around -200 for big favorites, does it go much higher?
  • DennisGreen
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-27-08
    • 18369

    #2
    Goes over -300 occasionally but pretty rare. Most cap out around -200 to -250.
    Comment
    • leafs_ducks
      SBR MVP
      • 10-22-09
      • 3147

      #3
      Originally posted by DennisGreen
      Goes over -300 occasionally but pretty rare. Most cap out around -200 to -250.
      Really? Over -300? The most I remember from last season was -230. But Then again I'm new and haven't been around much.
      Comment
      • a4u2fear
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 01-29-10
        • 8147

        #4
        Originally posted by leafs_ducks
        Really? Over -300? The most I remember from last season was -230. But Then again I'm new and haven't been around much.
        Have all the games on a spreadsheet and eight times there was a favorite >=-300, all home teams.
        Comment
        • sanchez
          SBR High Roller
          • 02-02-11
          • 223

          #5
          Originally posted by a4u2fear
          Have all the games on a spreadsheet and eight times there was a favorite >=-300, all home teams.
          Can I see that spread sheet? I am doing a stat study kind of thing
          Comment
          • hockey216
            SBR MVP
            • 08-20-08
            • 4583

            #6
            doesnt normally go over -250. for it to go to -300, would have to be a huge nhl powerhouse playing worst team in league, and playing at home.
            Comment
            • The Bet Master
              SBR MVP
              • 09-29-10
              • 2665

              #7
              I would say a typical game is about -145 to -190.
              Comment
              • hels
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 04-12-09
                • 8767

                #8
                The best value is finding games and playing the puckline on the visiting team. You can make some serious cash if you have a good grasp of the teams.
                Comment
                • Dharmonize
                  SBR MVP
                  • 10-10-10
                  • 1991

                  #9
                  Originally posted by sanchez
                  How heavy do teams get favored for NHL games?
                  It actually depends on the books and differs from one to another... sometimes the difference is so huge that it pays off to have opened accounts with many various books to get the best price. Eh... sorry to say such a trivial thing known to almost everyone around here... but I somehow felt it sort of relates to this topic.
                  Comment
                  • a4u2fear
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 01-29-10
                    • 8147

                    #10
                    Originally posted by sanchez
                    Can I see that spread sheet? I am doing a stat study kind of thing
                    Sorry dude, has all 1232 games and all the lines, took me way to long to put together to be giving it away.
                    Comment
                    • sanchez
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 02-02-11
                      • 223

                      #11
                      Originally posted by a4u2fear
                      Sorry dude, has all 1232 games and all the lines, took me way to long to put together to be giving it away.
                      Not sure how giving it away hurts you in any way.... Are you planning on selling it?
                      Comment
                      • hels
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 04-12-09
                        • 8767

                        #12
                        I really don't understand why not give it away either. I guess sometimes people feel like they put so much time and effort into something and they feel if they give it away they're being Santa Claus. The other thing too is that one season will not give you enough data to find groundbreaking trends. I think you need at least 5 seasons of data before you can find any useful trends, and even then they must be 60% + or else they will all too quickly be hitting 50% again.
                        Comment
                        • a4u2fear
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 01-29-10
                          • 8147

                          #13
                          Its called it took multiple weeks of time spent and I don't want to just give it away. Sorry, but I can't do it..
                          Comment
                          • Dharmonize
                            SBR MVP
                            • 10-10-10
                            • 1991

                            #14
                            Give and you shall be given Life is too poor without sharing
                            Comment
                            • Inkwell77
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-03-11
                              • 3227

                              #15
                              Originally posted by hels
                              I really don't understand why not give it away either. I guess sometimes people feel like they put so much time and effort into something and they feel if they give it away they're being Santa Claus. The other thing too is that one season will not give you enough data to find groundbreaking trends. I think you need at least 5 seasons of data before you can find any useful trends, and even then they must be 60% + or else they will all too quickly be hitting 50% again.
                              I hear this type of thinking and it doesn't really make sense. 5 years? Players change. Coaches change. Styles change. Rules change. One season, the previous season specifically, can show some trends which could be useful in the next season of bets. The books would most likely catch onto any trend if it has been going on for 5 years.


                              Also, I totally understand why this guy would not want to give out all his information he has worked at.
                              But at the same time if he is looking to give it away I would love to take a look!!
                              Comment
                              • sanchez
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 02-02-11
                                • 223

                                #16
                                Originally posted by a4u2fear
                                Its called it took multiple weeks of time spent and I don't want to just give it away. Sorry, but I can't do it..
                                Ok man, I get that it took time, but still doesn't make any sense to me how it hurts you to give it away. It's not like I'm asking you to give me something physical you've built like a car or chair. You can multiply your product for free and unless you are planning on selling it I don't see any reason to hold it to yourself.

                                That's like someone throwing their food in the trash instead of giving it to a homeless man.

                                I don't even want the information for betting purposes, was just looking to do some kind of hockey pick games contest and needed to know odds averages.
                                Comment
                                • Dharmonize
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 10-10-10
                                  • 1991

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Inkwell77
                                  I hear this type of thinking and it doesn't really make sense. 5 years? Players change. Coaches change. Styles change. Rules change. One season, the previous season specifically, can show some trends which could be useful in the next season of bets.
                                  Five years might be too much, but the larger the sample the better. I believe a reliable system can be built upon 3 years of stats. If something happens one or two times (seasons), it can still be an anomaly of some sort. 3 times provide more certainty. As you say, some trends from the previous season might occur again in the next, but some might also reappear only after two years or even more. Therefore, to reveal and identify all types of long-term and generally valid trends, you need more than just one or two consecutive seasons. From this point of view, the leagues such as NFL should be the most difficult to create a working system, while in NHL or MLB, you get a much greater portion of games and stats from each team to work with.
                                  Comment
                                  • 70kgman
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-31-10
                                    • 4354

                                    #18
                                    I remember back in the 05-06 season, back when Pittsburgh was dreadful, Pitt were consistently +300 to +600 dogs on most of their road games. I remember Ottawa being somewhere around a -700 favorite ML one game against Pitt.
                                    Comment
                                    • SlimZ
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 03-07-11
                                      • 647

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by 70kgman
                                      I remember back in the 05-06 season, back when Pittsburgh was dreadful, Pitt were consistently +300 to +600 dogs on most of their road games. I remember Ottawa being somewhere around a -700 favorite ML one game against Pitt.

                                      Wow really -700 never seen that be4 highest line last season was Col @ Van-350 it was sick and first time seeing a team Col+1.5 +100 for a puckline
                                      Comment
                                      • jetsjets1028
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-10-10
                                        • 1234

                                        #20
                                        depends on the game
                                        Comment
                                        • sanchez
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 02-02-11
                                          • 223

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by 70kgman
                                          I remember back in the 05-06 season, back when Pittsburgh was dreadful, Pitt were consistently +300 to +600 dogs on most of their road games. I remember Ottawa being somewhere around a -700 favorite ML one game against Pitt.
                                          wow that is crazy for an NHL game
                                          Comment
                                          • JuniorAnalyst
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 03-21-11
                                            • 2148

                                            #22
                                            After the Wings won the stanley cup 4 years ago? the next season they played there first game in toronto and were a -300 fav and lost lmfao!
                                            Comment
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